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Revision as of 19:25, 10 December 2008

File:World population.svg
Map of countries by population—China and India, the only two countries to have a population greater than 1 billion, together possess more than a third of the world's population. (See List of countries by population.)
Population by continent as a percentage of world population (1750–2005)

The world population is the total number of living humans on Earth at a given time. As of November 2008, the world's population is estimated to be about 6.7 billion (6,700,000,000). In line with population projections, this figure continues to grow at rates that were unprecedented before the 20th century, although the rate of growth has almost halved since its peak of 2.2% per year, which was reached in 1963. The world's population, on its current growth trajectory, is expected to reach nearly 9 billion by the year 2042.[1][2] Please see World population estimates for more figures.

Population figures

It is estimated that over 50 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire (300–400 AD).[3]

Below is a table with historical and predicted population figures shown in millions.[4][5][6] The availability of historical population figures varies by region.

World historical and predicted populations (in millions)[7]
Region 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2050 2150
World 791 978 1,262 1,650 2,521 5,978 8,909 9,746
Africa 106 107 111 133 221 767 1,766 2,308
Asia 502 635 809 947 1,402 3,634 5,268 5,561
Europe 163 203 276 408 547 729 628 517
Latin America and the Caribbean * 16 24 38 74 167 511 809 912
Northern America * 2 7 26 82 172 307 392 398
Oceania 2 2 2 6 13 30 46 51
World historical and predicted populations by percentage distribution
Region 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2050 2150
World 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Africa 13.4 10.9 8.8 8.1 8.8 12.8 19.8 23.7
Asia 63.5 64.9 64.1 57.4 55.6 60.8 59.1 57.1
Europe 20.6 20.8 21.9 24.7 21.7 12.2 7.0 5.3
Latin America and the Caribbean * 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.5 6.6 8.5 9.1 9.4
Northern America * 0.3 0.7 2.1 5.0 6.8 5.1 4.4 4.1
Oceania 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Estimated world population at various dates (in thousands)
Year World Africa Asia Europe Latin America * Northern America* Oceania Notes
70,000 BC < 1,000 [8]
10,000 BC 1,000
9000 BC 3,000
8000 BC 5,000 [9]
7000 BC 7,000
6000 BC 10,000
5000 BC 15,000
4000 BC 20,000 [10]
3000 BC 25,000
2000 BC 35,000
1000 BC 50,000 [9]
500 BC 100,000 [9]
1 200,000 [11]
1000 310,000
1750 791,000 106,000 502,000 163,000 16,000 2,000 2,000
1800 978,000 107,000 635,000 203,000 24,000 7,000 2,000
1850 1,262,000 111,000 809,000 276,000 38,000 26,000 2,000
1900 1,650,000 133,000 947,000 408,000 74,000 82,000 6,000
1950 2,518,629 221,214 1,398,488 547,403 167,097 171,616 12,812
1955 2,755,823 246,746 1,541,947 575,184 190,797 186,884 14,265
1960 2,981,659 277,398 1,674,336 601,401 209,303 204,152 15,888
1965 3,334,874 313,744 1,899,424 634,026 250,452 219,570 17,657
1970 3,692,492 357,283 2,143,118 655,855 284,856 231,937 19,443
1975 4,068,109 408,160 2,397,512 675,542 321,906 243,425 21,564
1980 4,434,682 469,618 2,632,335 692,431 361,401 256,068 22,828
1985 4,830,979 541,814 2,887,552 706,009 401,469 269,456 24,678
1990 5,263,593 622,443 3,167,807 721,582 441,525 283,549 26,687
1995 5,674,380 707,462 3,430,052 727,405 481,099 299,438 28,924
2000 6,070,581 795,671 3,679,737 727,986 520,229 315,915 31,043
2005 6,453,628 887,964 3,917,508 724,722 558,281 332,156 32,998**
Year World Africa Asia Europe Latin America * Northern America* Oceania Notes

* Northern America comprises the northern countries and territories of North America: Canada, the United States, Greenland, Bermuda, and St. Pierre and Miquelon. Latin America comprises Middle America (Mexico, the nations of Central America, and the Caribbean) and South America.

** This figure is disputed.

Rate of increase

Main article: Population growth
Population evolution in different continents. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is millions of people.

Different regions have different rates of population growth. According to the above table, the growth in population of the different regions from 2000 to 2005 was:

237.771 million in Asia
92.293 million in Africa
38.052 million in Latin America
16.241 million in Northern America
1.955 million in Oceania
-3.264 million in Europe
383.047 million in the whole world

In the 20th century, the world saw the biggest increase in its population in human history due to lessening of the mortality rate in many countries due to medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution.[12][13]

In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world's population was growing at the rate of 1.14% (or about 75 million people) per year,[14] down from a peak of 86 million per year in 1987. In the last few centuries, the number of people living on Earth has increased many times over. By the year 2000, there were 10 times as many people on Earth as there were 300 years ago. According to data from the CIA's 2005–2006 World Factbooks, the world human population increased by 203,800 every day.[15] The 2007 CIA factbook increased this to 211,090 people every day.

Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19% in 1963, but growth remains high in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.[16]

In some countries there is negative population growth (i.e. net decrease in population over time), especially in Central and Eastern Europe (mainly due to low fertility rates) and Southern Africa (due to the high number of HIV-related deaths). Within the next decade, Japan and some countries in Western Europe are also expected to encounter negative population growth due to sub-replacement fertility rates.

Population growth which exceeds the carrying capacity of an area or environment results in overpopulation. Conversely, such areas may be considered "underpopulated" if the population is not large enough to maintain an economic system; however, many who do not view overpopulation as a serious problem fail to consider the sustainability of economic systems, the environmental degradation caused, and the ecological footprint of the existing population.

The United Nations states that population growth is rapidly declining due to the demographic transition. The world population is expected to peak at 9.22 billion in 2075. [3]

  • Population (est.) 10,000 BC – 2000 AD.
    Population (est.) 10,000 BC – 2000 AD.
  • Population (est.) in log y scale
    Population (est.) in log y scale
  • World population 1950–2000
    World population 1950–2000
  • Increase rate 1950–2000
    Increase rate 1950–2000

Milestones

World population estimates milestones .
Population
(in billions) 		1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Year 1804 1927 1961 1974 1987 1999 2011 2024 2042
Years elapsed - 123 34 13 13 12 12 13 18

These numbers show that the world's population has tripled in 72 years, and doubled in 38 years up to the year 1999. Including some more estimates, the world population has been doubled or will double in the following years (with two different starting points). Note how, during the 2nd millennium, each doubling has taken roughly half as long as the previous doubling.

Starting at 250 million Starting at 375 million
Population
(in billions) 		0.25 0.5 1 2 4 8 0.375 0.75 1.5 3 6
Year 950 1600 1804 1927 1974 2024 1420 1720 1875 1961 1999
Years elapsed - 650 204 123 47 50 - 300 155 86 38

Distribution

Population density map of the world in 1994, when the world's population was at 5600 million; Observe the high densities in the Indo-Gangetic and North China Plains, the Sichuan Basin, the Nile river delta, Southern Japan, Western Europe, the Indonesian island of Java, Central America (especially El Salvador, the Americas' most densely populated nation), and the United States' BosWash megalopolis.
Main article: Population density

Asia accounts for over 60% of the world population with almost 3800 million people. The People's Republic of China and India alone comprise 20% and 17% respectively. Africa follows with 840 million people, 12% of the world population. Europe's 710 million people make up 11% of the world's population. North America is home to 514 million (8%), South America to 371 million (5.3%), and Australia 21 million.


The world's most populous nations

Population density by country
Further information: List of countries and dependencies by population density and List of countries by population

Countries ranking in the top 40 both in terms of total population (more than 29 million people) and population density (more than 310 people per square kilometer):

The 15 most densely populated countries:

Rank Country/Region of special position Population Area (km²) Density (Pop per km²) Notes
1 Macau Macau (PRC) 520,400 28.6 18,196
2 Monaco Monaco 32,671 1.95 16,754 [17]
3 Singapore Singapore 4,588,600 707.1 6,489
4 Hong Kong Hong Kong S.A.R. (PRC) 7,040,885 1,099 6,407
5 Gibraltar Gibraltar (UK) 27,921 6 4,654
6 Vatican City Vatican City 821 0.44 1,866 [18]
7 Bahrain Bahrain 1,046,814 720 1,454 [19]
8 Malta Malta 401,880 316 1,272
9 Bermuda Bermuda (UK) 64,174 53 1,211
10 Maldives Maldives 329,198 298 1,105
11 Bangladesh Bangladesh 150,448,339 143,998 1,045 [20]
12 United Kingdom Channel Islands (two Crown dependencies) 149,463 195 766 [21]
13 Palestinian Authority Palestinian territories 4,018,332 6,020 667
14 Nauru Nauru 13,635 21 649
15 Taiwan Republic of China (commonly, "Taiwan") 22,894,384 35,980 636 [18]

The 15 countries with the largest total population:

Rank Country / Territory Population Date % of world population Source
1  China[22] 1,436,460,000 November 25 2024 17.64% Chinese Population clock
2  India 1,387,610,000 November 25 2024 17.04% Indian Population clock
3  United States 338,800,000 November 25 2024 4.16% Official USA Population clock
4  Indonesia 228,780,000 November 15, 2008 3.39% Indonesian Population Clock
5  Brazil 228,162,000 November 25 2024 3.39% Official Brazilian Population clock
6  Pakistan 214,613,000 November 25 2024 3.19% Official Pakistani Population clock
7  Bangladesh 158,665,000 2.36% UN estimate
8  Nigeria 148,093,000 2.2% UN estimate
9  Russia 141,900,000 August 1, 2008 2.11% Federal state statistics service
10  Japan 127,690,000 May 1, 2008 1.9% Official Japan Statistics Bureau estimate
11  Mexico 106,682,500 mid-2008 1.58% INEGI projection
12  Philippines 90,457,200 mid-2008 1.34%

National Statistics Office projection

13  Vietnam 87,375,000 1.3%

UN estimate

14  Germany 82,142,000 March 31, 2008 1.22% Federal Statistics Office estimate
15  Ethiopia 79,221,000 July 2008 1.18%

Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency

Approximately 4.3 billion people live in these 15 countries, representing roughly two-thirds of the world's population. If added together, all nations in the European Union, with 494 million people – about 7.3% of world's population in 2006 – would be third in the list above.

Population by region, 2007

Ethnicity

Main article: List of ethnic groups

The world is made up of thousands of ethnic groups. The single largest ethnic group on the planet by far is Han Chinese, which represents 19.73% of the global population. For comparison 6.06% of the planet's population is of full or partial Spanish ancestry, and on a wider scale 14.2% of earth's population is of Sub-Saharan descent (those identifying as 'Black')[citation needed].

Demographics of youth

According to the 2006 CIA World Factbook, around 27% of the world's population is below 15 years of age.[23]

Before adding mortality rates, the 1990s saw the greatest number of raw births worldwide, especially in the years after 1995, despite the fact that the birth rate was not as high as in the 1960s. In fact, because of the 160 million-per-year raw births after 1995, the time it took to reach the next 109 reached its fastest pace (only 12 years), as world population reached 6000 million people in 1999, when at the beginning of the decade, the reaching was designated for the year 2000, by most demographers. People aged 7 through 17 make up these births, today.

1985–1990 marked the period with the fastest yearly population change in world history. Even though the early 1960s had a greater growth rate than in the mid and late 1980s, the population change hovered around 83 million people in the five-year period, with an all-time growth change of nearly 88 million in 1990. The reason is because the world's population was greater in the mid and late 1980s (around 5 billion) than in the early 1960s (around 3 billion), which meant that the growth rate in the 1980s was no factor on the dramatic population change. People aged 17 to 22 make up these births, today.

Forecast

Main article: World population estimates
See also: Overpopulation
U.S. Census Bureau estimates[24]
Year Population
(in billions)
2010 6.9
2020 7.7
2030 8.4
2040 9.0
2050 9.5

In the long run, the future population growth of the world is difficult to predict. Birth rates are declining slightly on average, but vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates are often at or below replacement levels), developing countries, and different ethnicities. Death rates can change unexpectedly due to disease, wars and catastrophes, or advances in medicine. The UN itself has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different assumptions. Over the last 10 years, the UN had consistently revised these projections downward, until the 2006 revision issued March 14, 2007 revised the 2050 mid range estimate upwards by 273 million.

The United States Census Bureau issued a revised forecast for world population that increased its projection for the year 2050 to above 9.4 billion people (which was the UN's 1996 projection for 2050), up from 9.1 billion people. A new US Census Bureau revision from June 18, 2008 has increased its projections further, to beyond 9.5 billion in 2050.

Other projections are that the world's population will eventually crest, though it is uncertain when or how. In some scenarios, it will crest as early as around 2050 at under 9 billion, or 10 to 11 billion, due to gradually decreasing birth rates.[4]).

In other scenarios, disasters triggered by the growing population's demand for scarce resources will eventually lead to a sudden population crash, or even a Malthusian catastrophe (also see overpopulation and food security).

UN estimates (in thousands).[4][25][6]
Year World Africa Asia Europe Latin America US and Canada Oceania
2010 6,830,283 984,225 (14.4%) 4,148,948 (60.7%) 719,714 (10.5%) 594,436 (8.7%) 348,139 (5.1%) 34,821 (0.5%)
2015 7,197,247 1,084,540 (15.1%) 4,370,522 (60.7%) 713,402 (9.9%) 628,260 (8.7%) 363,953 (5.1%) 36,569 (0.5%)
2020 7,540,237 1,187,584 (15.7%) 4,570,131 (60.6%) 705,410 (9.4%) 659,248 (8.7%) 379,589 (5.0%) 38,275 (0.5%)
2025 7,851,455 1,292,085 (16.5%) 4,742,232 (60.4%) 696,036 (8.9%) 686,857 (8.7%) 394,312 (5.0%) 39,933 (0.5%)
2030 8,130,149 1,398,004 (17.2%) 4,886,647 (60.1%) 685,440 (8.4%) 711,058 (8.7%) 407,532 (5.0%) 41,468 (0.5%)
2035 8,378,184 1,504,179 (18.0%) 5,006,700 (59.8%) 673,638 (8.0%) 731,591 (8.7%) 419,273 (5.0%) 42,803 (0.5%)
2040 8,593,591 1,608,329 (18.7%) 5,103,021 (59.4%) 660,645 (8.0%) 747,953 (8.7%) 429,706 (5.0%) 43,938 (0.5%)
2045 8,774,394 1,708,407 (19.5%) 5,175,311 (59.0%) 646,630 (7.4%) 759,955 (8.7%) 439,163 (5.0%) 44,929 (0.5%)
2050 8,918,724 1,803,298 (20.2%) 5,217,202 (58.5%) 653,323 (7.3%) 767,685 (8.6%) 447,931 (5.0%) 45,815 (0.5%)

Predictions based on population growth

In 1798 Thomas Malthus incorrectly predicted that population growth would outrun food supply by the mid 19th century. In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich reprised this argument in The Population Bomb, predicting famine in the 1970s and 1980s. The dire predictions of Ehrlich and other neo-Malthusians were vigorously challenged by a number of economists, notably Julian Lincoln Simon. Agricultural research, already under way such as the green revolution, led to dramatic improvements in crop yields. Food production has kept pace with population growth, but Malthusians point out the green revolution relies heavily on petroleum-based fertilizers, and that many crops have become so genetically uniform that a crop failure would be very widespread. Food prices in the early 21st century are rising sharply on a global scale, and causing serious malnutrition to spread widely.[26]

From 1950 to 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the world; grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon-fueled irrigation.[27] The peaking of world hydrocarbon production (Peak oil) may test Malthus and Ehrlich critics.[28][29] As of May 2008, the price of grain has been pushed up by increased farming for use in biofuels,[30] world oil prices at over $140 per barrel,[31] global population growth,[32] climate change,[33] loss of agricultural land to residential and industrial development,[34][35] and growing consumer demand in China and India[36][37] Food riots have recently occurred in many countries across the world.[38][39][40]

The world population has grown by about four billion since the beginning of the Green Revolution and most believe that, without the Revolution, there would be greater famine and malnutrition than the UN presently documents (approximately 850 million people suffering from chronic malnutrition in 2005).[41]

On the opposite end of the spectrum, a number of people argue that today's low fertility rates in Europe, North America, Japan and Australia, combined with mass immigration, will have severe negative consequences for these countries.[42]

Child poverty has been linked to people having children before they have the means to care for them.[43] Some scholars have put forward the Doomsday argument applying Bayesian probability to world population to argue that the end of humanity will come within 9,000 years.[44]

Number of humans who have ever lived

In the 1970s it was popular to believe that 75% of all the people who had ever lived were alive in the 1970s, which would have put the total number of people to ever live as of the 1970s, as less than the current number of people alive today. This view was eventually debunked as a myth[45]. A more recent estimate of the total number of people who have ever lived was prepared by Carl Haub of the Population Reference Bureau in 1995 and subsequently updated in 2002; the updated figure was approximately 106 billion.[46][47] Haub characterized this figure as an estimate which required "selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period".[47] Given an estimated global population of 6.2 billion in 2002, it could be inferred that about 6% of all people who had ever existed were alive in 2002.[46]

Other estimates of the total number of people who have ever lived range approximately from 45 billion to 125 billion, with the more robust of these falling in the 90–110 billion range.[citation needed]. It is difficult to estimate for the following reasons:[citation needed]

  • The set of specific characteristics which define a human being and distinguish early Homo sapiens from earlier or related species continues to be a subject of intense research and debate. It is thus not possible to know when to begin the count, nor which hominids to include. See in this regard also Sorites paradox.
  • Even if the scientific community reached wide consensus regarding which characteristics distinguished human beings, it would be nearly impossible to pinpoint the time of their first appearance to even the nearest millennium because the fossil record is simply too sparse. Only a few thousand fossils of early humans have been found, most no bigger than a tooth or a knucklebone. These bone fragments are used to extrapolate the population distribution of millions of early human beings spread across the continents.
  • Robust statistical data only exist for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few nations, kingdoms, or empires had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the people for purposes of taxation or military service [citation needed]. All claims of population sizes preceding the 18th century are estimates, and thus the margin of error for the total number of humans who have ever lived should be in the billions, or even tens of billions of people.

Further resources

  • There is a map that is rescaled in order to display every country according to its population size. It is available at the University of Sheffield 'Worldmapper' [4] site.[48]
  • Population patterns and trends can be explored on the GeoHive interactive world atlas.[49]

References

  1. ^ World Population Clock - Worldometers
  2. ^ International Data Base (IDB) - World Population
  3. ^ Population estimates of the Roman Empire, Dr. Kenneth W. Harl
  4. ^ a b c World population prospects: the 2004 revision population database
  5. ^ The World at un.org
  6. ^ a b Population Growth over Human History
  7. ^ UN report 2004 data
  8. ^ Humans lived in tiny, separate bands for 100,000 years
  9. ^ a b c an average of figures from different sources as listed at the US Census Bureau's Historical Estimates of World Population; see also *Kremer, Michael. 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108(3): 681-716.
  10. ^ Bishop Ussher places creation of Adam and Eve; world population two.
  11. ^ The range of figures from different sources as listed at the US Census Bureau's Historical Estimates of World Population put the population at 1 AD between 170 million to 400 million.
  12. ^ The limits of a Green Revolution?
  13. ^ The Real Green Revolution
  14. ^ census.gov
  15. ^ Current world population (ranked)
  16. ^ Ron Nielsen, The little green handbook, Picador, New York (2006) ISBN 0-312-42581-3
  17. ^ The Monaco government uses a smaller surface area figure resulting in a population density of 18,078 per km².
  18. ^ a b Population density calculated using surface area and population figures from [1]
  19. ^ mohammed al a'ali (April 1, 2008), Population surge 'threat to economy', gulf Daily News, retrieved 2008-04-21
  20. ^ Latest figure from the World Bank Development Indicators Database is 1,090 per km²
  21. ^ The Channel Islands consist of Jersey and Guernsey; they do not form a political unit, but they are grouped together by the UN statistics.
  22. ^ Mainland China only
  23. ^ Age structure of the world – 2006 CIA World Factbook
  24. ^ U.S. Census Bureau - International Data Base (IDB)
  25. ^ The World at Six Billion
  26. ^ BBC NEWS | World | Assessing the global food crisis
  27. ^ Eating Fossil Fuels |EnergyBulletin.net
  28. ^ Peak Oil: the threat to our food security
  29. ^ Peak Oil And Famine:Four Billion Deaths
  30. ^ 2008: The year of global food crisis
  31. ^ The global grain bubble
  32. ^ Food crisis will take hold before climate change, warns chief scientist
  33. ^ Global food crisis looms as climate change and fuel shortages bite
  34. ^ Experts: Global Food Shortages Could ‘Continue for Decades'
  35. ^ Has Urbanization Caused a Loss to Agricultural Land?
  36. ^ The World's Growing Food-Price Crisis
  37. ^ The cost of food: Facts and figures
  38. ^ Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends food costs soaring
  39. ^ Already we have riots, hoarding, panic: the sign of things to come?
  40. ^ Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits
  41. ^ The limits of a Green Revolution?
  42. ^ The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization (ISBN 0-312-30259-3), by Patrick Buchanan, The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity (ISBN 0-465-05050-6), by Longman, and Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future (ISBN 1-56663-606-X), by Wattenberg
  43. ^ Population bomb still ticking away - 20 Mar 2007 - NZ Herald
  44. ^ DIE OFF - a population crash resource page
  45. ^ Population Reference Bureau
  46. ^ a b Curtin, Ciara (2007-03-01), "Fact or Fiction?: Living People Outnumber the Dead", Scientific American, vol. 297, no. 3, Scientific American, Inc. (published September 2007), p. 126, retrieved 2008-08-04 Note: text of paper publication slightly different than text of on-line publication
  47. ^ a b Haub, Carl (November/December 2002), "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" (PDF), Population Today, vol. 30, no. 8, Population Reference Bureau, pp. 3–4, retrieved 2008-08-04 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  48. ^ [2], University of Sheffield 'Worldmapper' site
  49. ^ Global Statistics interactive atlas, www.GeoHive.com

See also

balls taste good

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