User:Soosider3/sandbox

All polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure and sample size rules.

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

The next general election must take place by January 2025 as per provisions of the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.

Polls

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	SNP	Con	Lab	Lib Dems	Green	Reform	Others	Lead
26–27 Nov 2023	Redfield & Wilton		1,054	34%	17%	36%	6%	2%	3%	2%	2%
20–26 Nov 2023	Ipsos		1,000	41%	16%	29%	7%	3%		4%	12%
29–30 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton		1,092	32%	23%	32%	8%	2%	2%	3%	Tie
6–11 Oct 2023	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,002	35%	19%	35%	6%			4%	Tie
2–6 Oct 2023	YouGov	Fabians	1,028	33%	20%	32%	5%	5%	2%	2%	1
2–5 Oct 2023	Panelbase	Sunday Times	1,022	37%	18%%	33%	8%				4
4–5 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton		1,094	34%	21%	32%	9%	2%		1%	2
5–14 Sep 2023	Opimium	Tony Blair Institute	1,004	37%	18%	28%	8%	4%		4%	9
8–13 Sep 2023	YouGov	The Times	1,000	38%	16%	27%	7%	6%	4%	2%	11
2–4 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton		1,100	35%	15%	35%	8%	4%		3	Tie
15–18 Aug 2023	Survation	True North	1,022	32%	14%	30%	5%	4%			2
3–8 Aug 2023	YouGov		1,086	36%	15%	32%	6%	6%		2%	4
5–6 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton		1,050	37%	17%	34%	7%	2%		1%	3
1–2 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton		1,030	35%	21%	32%	7%	2%		1%	3
23–28 Jun 2023	Survation		1,863	37%	17%	34%	9%			4%	3
12–15 Jun 2023	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,007	34%	18%	34%	7%	7%			Tie
9–14 Jun 2023	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,018	38%	17%	34%	7%	4%			4
3–5 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,466	37%	20%	28%	9%	3%		3%	9
15–21 May 2023	Ipsos MORI	STV News	1,090	41%	16%	29%	6%	3%		4%	12
27 Apr – 3 May 2023	Survation	True North	1,009	38%	18%	31%	9%	2%		4%	7
30 Apr – 1 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,295	35%	18%	32%	9%	3%		3%	3
17–20 Apr 2023	YouGov	The Times	1,032	37%	17%	28%	8%	5%		2%	9
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023	Survation	N/A	1,001	40%	17%	32%	7%	1%		3%	8
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	36%	19%	31%	10%	2%		3%	5
28–31 Mar 2023	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,009	39%	19%	33%	6%			4%	6
28–30 Mar 2023	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,089	39%	19%	31%	5%			6%	8
27 Mar 2023	Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National Party
9–13 Mar 2023	YouGov	Sky News	1,002	39%	16%	29%	6%	6%		3%	10
8–10 Mar 2023	Survation	Diffley Partnership	1,037	40%	18%	32%	6%	2%		3%	8
7–10 Mar 2023	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,013	40%	16%	33%	6%			5%	7
2–5 Mar 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	39%	22%	29%	6%	2%		3%	10
17–20 Feb 2023	YouGov	The Times	1,017	38%	19%	29%	6%	4%		4%	9
15–17 Feb 2023	Survation	N/A	1,034	43%	17%	30%	6%			3%	13
15–17 Feb 2023	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,004	42%	17%	32%	6%			3%	10
1–7 Feb 2023	Survation	N/A	TBA	42%	18%	29%	6%				13
23–26 Jan 2023	YouGov	The Sunday Times	1,088	42%	15%	29%	6%	3%		5%	13
10–12 Jan 2023	Survation	True North	1,002	43%	18%	29%	7%			2%	14
22 Dec – 1 Jan 2023	Survation	Scotland in Union	1,025	44%	16%	31%	6%			1%	13
16–21 Dec 2022	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,048	43%	19%	30%	6%			2%	13
6–9 Dec 2022	YouGov	The Times	1,090	43%	14%	29%	6%	4%		4%	14
28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022	Ipsos MORI	STV News	1,045	51%	13%	25%	6%	3%			26
26–27 Nov 2022	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	41%	16%	31%	8%	2%		3%	10
7–11 Oct 2022	Panelbase	Alba Party	1,000+	42%	16%	30%	6%	2%		2%	12
5–7 Oct 2022	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,017	45%	15%	30%	5%			4%	15
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022	YouGov	The Times	1,067	45%	12%	31%	7%	3%		2%	14
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022	ComRes	The Scotsman	1,029	46%	15%	30%	8%			1%	16
28–29 Sep 2022	Survation	Scotland in Union	1,011	44%	15%	31%	6%			4%	13
17–19 Aug 2022	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,133	44%	20%	23%	8%			5%	21
29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,010	47%	19%	23%	8%			3%	24
23–28 Jun 2022	Savanta ComRes	The Scotsman	1,029	46%	18%	25%	8%			3%	21
23–29 May 2022	Ipsos	STV News	1,000	44%	19%	23%	10%	3%		2%	21
18–23 May 2022	YouGov	The Times	1,115	46%	19%	22%	6%	3%		3%	24
5 May 2022	Local elections held in Scotland
26–29 Apr 2022	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,009	42%	21%	24%	7%			5%	18
25–31 Mar 2022	BMG Research	The Herald	1,012	42%	19%	26%	6%	4%		2%	16
24–28 Mar 2022	Survation	Ballot Box Scotland	1,002	45%	19%	27%	6%			2%	18
1–4 Feb 2022	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,128	44%	20%	24%	8%	2%		2%	20
15–22 Dec 2021	Opinium	Daily Record	1,328	48%	17%	22%	7%	3%		4%	26
18–22 Nov 2021	YouGov	The Times	1,060	48%	20%	18%	6%	3%		4%	28
9–12 Nov 2021	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,000~	48%	21%	20%	7%			4%	27
22–29 Nov 2021	Ipsos MORI	STV News	1,107	52%	19%	17%	5%	3%		4%	33
22–28 Oct 2021	Savanta ComRes	The Scotsman	1,005	48%	20%	22%	7%			3%	26
6–10 Sep 2021	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	2,003	46%	22%	18%	7%	4%		3%	24
3–9 Sep 2021	Savanta ComRes	The Scotsman	1,016	48%	22%	20%	7%			3%	26
2–8 Sep 2021	Opinium	Sky News	1,014	51%	21%	18%	6%			4%	30
20 Aug 2021	Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
16–24 Jun 2021	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,287	46%	24%	19%	6%	3%		2%	22
6 May 2021	2021 Scottish Parliament election			47.7%	21.9%	21.6%	6.9%	1.3%		0.6%	25.8

Graphical Summary

SCOOP Polling

The Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) is the Scottish Election Study's regular opinion poll of a representative sample of Scottish voting-age adults, running since December 2021. It is worded differently from mainstream polling and uses a slightly different methodology, Yougov have advised “… the voting intention results used slightly different wording and did not include YouGov’s standard turnout weighting and so should not be directly tracked to other YouGov voting intention figures as they are not identical. Instead, they should be tracked to other SCOOP voting intention polls conducted by the Scottish Election Study…“

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	SNP	Con	Lab	Lib Dems	Green	Others	Lead
20–25 Oct 2023	YouGov	Scottish Elections Study	1,200	24%	12%	28%	4%	3%	3%	4
9–13 Jun 2023	YouGov	Scottish Elections Study	1,200	24%	12%	26%	5%	3%	2%	2
10–15 Feb 2023	YouGov	Scottish Elections Study	1,239	29%	12%	27%	4%	2%	2%	2
22–25 Nov 2022	YouGov	Scottish Elections Study	1,239	31%	11%	23%	6%	3%	2%	8

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 5% from the 2019 results to change hands. In calculating the swing required the assumption is that there is a direct swing from one party to another, therefore a 10% lead between winning party and second would require a 5% swing.

SNP targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing to gain	SNP place 2019
1	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross		Liberal Democrats	0.32	2nd
2	Moray		Conservative	0.53	2nd
3	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine		Conservative}	0.79	2nd
4	North East Fife		Liberal Democrats	1.43	2nd
5	Dumfries and Galloway		Conservative	1.75	2nd
6	Edinburgh West		Liberal Democrats	3.46	2nd
7	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale		Conservative	3.85	2nd
8	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk		Conservative	4.84	2nd
9	Banff and Buchan		Conservative	4.87	2nd

Conservative targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing to gain	Con place 2019
1	Gordon		SNP	0.73	2nd
2	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock		SNP	2.50	2nd
3	Ochil and South Perthshire		SNP	3.89	2nd
4	Argyll and Bute		SNP	4.28	2nd
5	Aberdeen South		SNP	4.37	2nd
6	Angus		SNP	4.40	2nd
7	Lanark and Hamilton East		SNP	4.89	2nd
8	East Renfrewshire		SNP	4.90	2nd

Labour targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing to gain	Labour place 2019
1	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath		SNP	1.32	2nd
2	East Lothian		SNP	3.32	2nd
3	Glasgow North East		SNP	3.75	2nd
4	Rutherglen and Hamilton West		SNP	4.86	2nd

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2019		Swing to gain	Lib Dem place 2019
1	East Dunbartonshire		SNP	0.14	2nd

See also

• Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
• Opinion polling on Scottish independence

References

Category:Politics of Scotland Category:Opinion polling in Scotland Category:General elections in Scotland to the Parliament of the United Kingdom