User:Rhian2040/sandbox

United States presidential election, 2024
538 members of the Electoral College; 270 electoral votes needed to win
	Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by Haley/Crenshaw, blue denotes those won by Ocasio/Cortez/Harris. Numbers indicate electoral votes allotted to the winner of each state
Incumbent President; Donald Trump; Republican	; ;

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The United States presidential election of 2024, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, will be the 60th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or re-elect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2024. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The nominee then personally chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's presidential ticket (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.^[1]

The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution states that an individual can not be elected to the presidency more than twice. This prohibits former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from being elected president again. Former presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush, both having only served one term, are not constitutionally prohibited from being re-elected in the 2020 election.

Demographic trends

The age group of what will then be people in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.^[2]

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2024 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.^[3] Therefore, the party that wins the 2024 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.

Advantage of incumbency

An incumbent president seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against President Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against President George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

General election polling

Nominations

Republican Party

Declared candidates

These candidates have established campaign websites.

Name	Born	Current or previous positions	State	Announced	Ref
Dan Bilzerian	December 7, 1980 (age 44) Tampa, Florida	Gambler, actor, playboy	Nevada	November 11, 2019	^[4]
Kanye West	June 8, 1977 (age 47) Atlanta, Georgia	rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, entrepreneur and fashion designer	Illinois	October 11, 2018	^[5]Cite error: There are `<ref>` tags on this page without content in them (see the help page).

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President.

Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey 2010–2018; candidate for President in 2016^[6]^[7]
Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; candidate for President in 2016^[8]^[9]
Nikki Haley, Ambassador to the United Nations since 2017; Governor of South Carolina 2011–2017;^[10]^[11]
Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland since 2015^[12]^[13]
Will Hurd,U.S. Representative from TX-23 since 2015^[14]^[15]
Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States since 2017; Governor of Indiana 2013–2017; U.S. Representative 2001-2013^[16]^[17]
Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State since 2018; Director of the Central Intelligence Agency 2017-2018; U.S. Representative from KS-12 2011–2017;^[18]^[19]
Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; candidate for President in 2016^[20]
Curt Schilling, former baseball player^[21]
Ben Shapiro, conservative commentator, editor-at-large of Daily Wire^[22]
Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-present)^[23]

Former Governor
Chris Christie
from New Jersey
U.S. Senator
Ted Cruz
from Texas
Ambassador
Nikki Haley
from South Carolina
Governor
Larry Hogan
from Maryland
U.S. Representative
Will Hurd
from Texas
Vice President
Mike Pence
from Indiana
Secretary
Mike Pompeo
from Kansas
U.S. Senator
Marco Rubio
from Florida
Curt Schilling
from Arizona
Ben Shapiro
from Tennessee
President
Donald Trump
from Florida

Potential candidates

Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas since 2015^[24]
Charlie Baker, Governor of Massachusetts since 2015^[25]
Matt Bevin, Governor of Kentucky since 2015^[26]
Liz Cheney, U.S. Representative from WY-AL since 2017^[27]
Tucker Carlson, conservative commentator^[28]
Dan Crenshaw, U.S. Representative since 2019
Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas since 2015; U.S. Representative from AR-04 2013-2015;^[29]^[30]
Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida since 2019, U.S. Representative 2013–2018^[31]
Doug Ducey, Governor of Florida since 2015^[32]
Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from Florida^[33]
Richard Grenell, Acting Director of National Intelligence since 2020, United States Ambassador to Germany since 2018
Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri since 2019, Missouri Attorney General since 2017;^[34]^[35]
James Lankford, U.S. Senator from Oklahoma since 2015^[36]
Mark Meadows, White House Chief of Staff since 2020, U.S. Representative from NC-11 2013-2020^[37]
Robert C. O'Brien, United States National Security Advisor since 2019^[38]
Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Missouri since 2011^[39]
Ben Sasse, U.S. Senator from Nebraska since 2015 ^[40]
Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida since 2019, Governor of Florida from 2011-2019;^[41]
Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from [[South Carolina] since 2013, U.S. Representative from SC-01 2011–2013;^[42]^[43]
Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative from New York^[44]
Peter Thiel, philanthropist^[45]
Pat Toomey, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania since 2011, U.S. Representative from SC-01 1999–2005^[46]

Governor
Greg Abbott
from Texas
Former Governor
Matt Bevin
from Kentucky
Tucker Carlson
from California
U.S. Representative
Liz Cheney
from Wyoming
U.S. Representative
Dan Crenshaw
from Texas
U.S. Senator
Tom Cotton
from Arkansas
Governor
Ron DeSantis
from Florida
Governor
Doug Ducey
from Arizona
U.S. Representative
Matt Gaetz
from Florida
Former Director of National Intelligence
Richard Grenell
from Michigan
U.S. Senator
Josh Hawley
from Missouri
U.S. Senator
James Lankford
from Oklahoma
White House Chief of Staff
Mark Meadows
from North Carolina
United States National Security Advisor
Robert C. O'brien
from California
U.S. Senator
Rand Paul
from Kentucky
Governor
Pete Ricketts
from Nebraska
Former Speaker of the House of Representatives
Paul Ryan
from Wisconsin
U.S. Senator
Ben Sasse
from Nebraska
U.S. Senator
Rick Scott
from Florida
U.S. Senator
Tim Scott
from South Carolina
U.S. Representative
Elise Stefanik
from New York
Peter Thiel
from California
U.S. Senator
Pat Toomey
from Pennsylvania

Declined to be candidates

Trey Gowdy, former U.S. Representative from SC-04 2011–2019;
Eric Greitens, former Governor of Missouri 2017-2018;^[47]^[48](running for statewide office)
Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota since 2019; U.S. Representative from South Dakota^[49]^[50]
Donald Trump Jr., businessman, executive Vice President of the Trump Organization^[51]^[52]
Ivanka Trump, businesswoman, First Daughter, Senior Advisor to the President^[53]
Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin since 2011; candidate for President in 2016^[54]^[55]

Democratic Party

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President.

Stacey Abrams, Minority Leader of the Georgia House of Representatives 2011-2017, Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2018^[56]
Michael Avenatti, attorney, convicted felon from California^[57]

Cite error: There are <ref> tags on this page without content in them (see the help page).

Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado since 2009^[58]
Lebron James, professional basketball player from California^[59]
Dwayne Johnson^{[note 1]}, actor, producer, and semi-retired professional wrestler from Florida^[60]^[61]
Terry McAuliffe, Governor of Virginia 2014–2018, DNC Chairman^[62]
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative from NY-14 2019–present;^[63]
Tim Ryan, U.S. Representative from Ohio since 2003,candidate for President of the United States in 2020^[64]^{[needs update]}
Andrew Yang, entrepeneur, candidate for President of the United States in 2020^[65]^[66]

State Representative
Stacey Abrams
from Georgia
Michael Avenatti
from California
United States Senator
Michael Bennet
from Colorado
Lebron James
from California
Dwayne Johnson
from Florida
Former Governor
Terry McAuliffe
of Virginia
U.S. Representative
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
from New York
U.S. Representative
Tim Ryan
from Ohio
Andrew Yang
from New York

Potential candidates

Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky since 2019, Attorney General of Kentucky 2016-2019^[67]
Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon, CEO of Blue Origin, investor^[68]
Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey since 2013; Mayor of Newark 2006–2013, Candidate for President of the United in 2020^[69]
Pete Buttigieg, former Mayor of South Bend, Candidate for President of the United in 2020
Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York since 2011^[70]
Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California since 2017, Candidate for President of the United in 2020^[71]^[72]^[73]^[74]
Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington since 2011, Candidate for president in 2020^[75]
Tim Kaine, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2013; Governor 2006–2010; Mayor of Richmond 1998–2001; Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2016^[76]
Joe Kennedy III^[77]
Gavin Newsom, Governor of California 2011-present; and candidate for 2014^[78]
J. B. Pritzker, Governor of Illinois since 2019^[79]
Gina Raimondo, Governor of Rhode Island since 2015^[80]^[81]
Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts since 2013, Candidate for President of the United in 2020^[82]^[83]^[84]^[85]
Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigansince 2019^[86]
Mark Zuckerberg^{[note 1]}, computer programmer and Internet entrepreneur from California

^[87]

Jeff Bezos
from Washington
U.S. Senator
Cory Booker
from New Jersey
Former Mayor
Pete Buttigieg
from Indiana
Governor
Andrew Cuomo
of New York
U.S. Senator
Kamala Harris
from [[California]
Governor
Jay Inslee
of Washington
Governor
John Hickenlooper
of Colorado
U.S. Representative
Joe Kennedy III
from Massachusetts
Governor
Gavin Newsom
from California
Governor
J. B. Pritzker
from Illinois
Governor
Gina Raimondo
of Rhode Island
Governor
Gretchen Whitmer
of Michigan
Mark Zuckerberg
from California

Declined to be candidates

Meghan Markle, former Duchess of Sussex
Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. Representative from TX-16 (2013-2019)^[88]

Libertarian Party

Potential candidates

Justin Amash, U.S. Representative from Michigan 2011-present^[89]^[90]
Kris Kobach^{[note 1]}], Secretary of State of Kansas, candidate for Governor of Kansas in 2018 ^[91]
Austin Petersen^{[note 1]}, producer, writer, political activist, and commentator; candidate for U.S. Senate 2018; Libertarian candidate for president of the United States in 2016^[92]
Larry Sharpe, businessman, motivational speaker, Regional Alternate at Libertarian National Committee, 2018 candidate for Governor of New YorkCite error: There are <ref> tags on this page without content in them (see the help page).

U.S. Representative Justin Amash^{[note 1]}
from Michigan
Austin Petersen
from Missouri
Larry Sharpe
from New York

Independent or unaffiliated

Potential candidates

Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks^[93]

</gallery>

Maps

The 50 states plus DC, scaled according to the number of electors in each state.

The 50 states plus DC, scaled according to the number of electors in each state.

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e This individual is not registered to the political party of this section, but has been the subject of speculation or expressed interest in running under this party. Cite error: The named reference "a" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).

References

Category:2020s in the United States

[a-60] This individual is not registered to the political party of this section, but has been the subject of speculation or expressed interest in running under this party. Cite error: The named reference "a" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).

[1] "US Election guide: how does the election work?". The Daily Telegraph. November 6, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2015.

[2] Weeks, Linton (January 25, 2013). "Forget 2016. The Pivotal Year In Politics May Be 2020". NPR. Retrieved October 30, 2015.

[3] Campbell, James E. (March 1986). "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections". The American Political Science Review. 80 (1): 45. JSTOR 1957083.

[4] ttps://www.latintimes.com/who-dan-bilzerian-ig-playboy-wants-run-us-president-2024-vs-kanye-west-450400

[5] ttps://www.pahomepage.com/news/politics/president-trump-kanye-west-to-have-white-house-lunch/1515890220

[6] ttps://www.quora.com/If-Donald-Trump-is-elected-what-do-you-think-the-2024-Presidential-Election-will-be-like-If-Hillary-Clinton-is-elected-what-will-2024-be-like

[7] ttps://www.desertsun.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/23/chris-christie-presidential-run-hits-trump-government-shutdown/2638401002/

[8] ttps://www.quora.com/If-Donald-Trump-is-elected-what-do-you-think-the-2024-Presidential-Election-will-be-like-If-Hillary-Clinton-is-elected-what-will-2024-be-like

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[10] ttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/forget-about-2016-heres-the-early-look-at-the-white-house-in-2031/2015/08/07/43e8dcd4-3c81-11e5-b3ac-8a79bc44e5e2_story.html?utm_term=.2f108cd0e29e

[11] ttps://nypost.com/2019/11/13/nikki-haley-keeps-door-open-for-2024-presidential-run/

[12] ttps://www.cnn.com/2019/01/26/politics/larry-hogan-2020-trump-challenge/index.html

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[21] ttps://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2019-08-13/curt-schilling-is-considering-running-for-congress-trump-approves

[22] ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-0tbQ7Bz1w%7Ctitle=Ben Shapiro Talks About Running for President in 2024

[23] ttps://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/02/03/if-trump-loses-2020-could-come-back-2024-column/4597353002/

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[26] ttps://www.wkyufm.org/post/analysis-would-matt-bevin-be-more-aggressive-second-term

[27] ttps://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/axiossurveymonkey-2024-presidential-vote-poll-gop/

[28] ttps://theweek.com/articles/845696/tucker-carlson-president

[29] ttp://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/06/ben_sasse_and_tom_cotton_have_competing_visions_for_the_future_of_the_republican.html

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[32] ttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/18/2024-race-begins-republicans-nov-4/

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[35] ttps://thehill.com/homenews/senate/515785-2024-gop-presidential-rivalries-emerge-on-virus-package

[36] ttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/pence-vice-presidential-debate-2024-republican-primaries/

[37] ttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/18/2024-race-begins-republicans-nov-4/

[38] ttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/18/2024-race-begins-republicans-nov-4/

[39] ttps://thehill.com/homenews/senate/515785-2024-gop-presidential-rivalries-emerge-on-virus-package

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[41] ttps://dailycaller.com/2019/01/10/rick-scott-ron-desantis-feuding/

[42] ttps://www.postandcourier.com/news/tim-scott-has-ideas-for-gop-s-future-he-s/article_75011164-c91c-11e6-9b00-23c8fc42be43.html

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[46] ttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/18/2024-race-begins-republicans-nov-4/

[47] ttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article180786481.html

[48] ttps://www.radioiowa.com/2017/10/22/missouris-governor-sparks-presidential-speculation-with-saturday-speech/

[49] ttps://www.rollcall.com/2020/08/26/stop-the-silliness-about-2024/

[50] ttps://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/08/gov-kristi-noem-south-dakota-presidential-race/5397174002/

[51] ttps://www.axios.com/donald-trump-jr-hbo-2024-presidential-election-580d8450-97f3-4d94-a690-9d9ae555579a.html

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[53] ttp://time.com/4726303/ivanka-trump-presidential-run-cbs-interview/

[54] ttp://future.wikia.com/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2024_(Timebomb_Earth)

[55] ttps://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/04/scott-walker-says-he-may-run-again-governor-u-s-senate/2482295002/

[56] ttps://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/03/2024-presidential-election-candidates-091055

[AvenattiRun-57] Schwartz, Brhttps://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/michael-avenatti-again-considering-2020-presidential-bidian (August 3, 2019). "Michael Avenatti is mulling a run for president again after declaring he would not seek nomination". CNBC. Retrieved August 3, 2019. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |1= (help); External link in |first= (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)

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[59] ttps://lakeshowlife.com/2018/10/11/lakers-rumors-lebron-james-future-president-united-states/

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[62] <https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/14/dwayne-the-rock-johnson-strongly-considering-presidential-run-in-2024-i-continue-to-listen-and-learn-as-much-as-i-can-exclusive/23307710/

[63] ttps://www.cnn.com/2019/04/17/politics/terry-mcauliffe-2020-interview/index.html

[64] ttps://www.inquisitr.com/5246177/fox-news-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-president-2020/

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[67] ttps://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/andrew-yang-suspends-presidential-campaign-democrat-universal-basic-income-yang-gang-951390/

[68] ttps://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/03/2024-presidential-election-candidates-091055

[69] ttps://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8189266/jeff-bezos-run-president-2024-donald-trump/

[70] ttps://www.thetoptens.com/candidates-for-2024-u-s-presidential-election/

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[74] David Siders (October 16, 2018). "How Kamala Harris' team thinks she can win the 2020 nomination". Politico. Retrieved October 17, 2018.

[75] ttps://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/07/28/democrats-president-clinton-candidates-bench-kaine-booker/87625460/

[76] ttps://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/coronavirus-governors-2024-election-160125

[77] ttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/forget-about-2016-heres-the-early-look-at-the-white-house-in-2031/2015/08/07/43e8dcd4-3c81-11e5-b3ac-8a79bc44e5e2_story.html?utm_term=.2f108cd0e29e

[78] ttps://www.bostonherald.com/2019/09/25/joe-k-iii-senate-bid-first-step-to-restoring-camelot/

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[80] ttps://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinois-playbook/2020/04/02/pritzker-for-president-getting-in-budget-binds-mission-ppe-488784

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[86] ttps://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/07/28/democrats-president-clinton-candidates-bench-kaine-booker/87625460/

[87] ttps://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/coronavirus-governors-2024-election-160125

[88] ttp://hollywoodlife.com/2017/01/16/mark-zuckerberg-running-for-president-2024-kanye-west-competition-election/

[89] ttps://www.dailywire.com/news/beto-says-his-presidential-bid-is-his-last-go-at-public-office

[90] "'Lowercase "L" Libertarian' Congressman Justin Amash is Another Potential 2020 Candidate". The Jack News. August 5, 2017. Retrieved June 24, 2018.

[91] ttps://twitter.com/justinamash/status/719331364915560449

[92] ttps://docs.google.com/document/d/11XvxdSibnzdYJ90jDYtdSPuGyOlUOnI9UqNz3bFnMpw/edit

[93] ttp://future.wikia.com/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2024_(Timebomb_Earth)

[94] ^ h

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v t e United States presidential elections
Elections by year	1788–89 1792 1796 1800 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028
Elections by state	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Primaries and caucuses	Iowa caucuses New Hampshire presidential primary Nevada presidential caucuses South Carolina presidential primary Super Tuesday
Nominating conventions	List of nominating conventions Brokered convention Convention bounce Superdelegate
Electoral College and popular vote	Results summary elections in which the winner lost the popular vote Electoral College margins Electoral College results by state electoral vote changes between elections electoral vote recipients popular votes received popular-vote margins Electoral Count Act Certificate of ascertainment Certificate of vote Contingent election Faithless elector Unpledged elector Voter turnout
Related	Campaign slogans Historical election polling Election Day Major party tickets Major party losers Presidential debates October surprise Red states and blue states Swing state Tipping-point state Election recount (2000) Guam straw poll Vice presidential confirmations: 1973 1974
House elections Senate elections Gubernatorial elections