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Religious Fertility Effect

The Religious Fertility Effect is the hypothesised phenomenon that religious affiliation plays a role in influencing the number of children that people should have. A number of hypotheses have been created to try to explain or discredit the phenomena including the Particularised Theology Hypothesis, the Characteristics Hypothesis, the Minority Status Hypothesis, the Social Interaction Hypothesis, and the Secularisation Hypothesis.

There are several effects documented to have an impact on fertility. However, the effects vary based on specific unions and can result in negative and positive outcomes. A majority of religions have codes surrounding reproduction which influence family size, views on contraception, and accepted unions.

Statistical evidence suggests that religion only has a visible effect locally and is suppressed by larger community and socio-economic factors such as the type of government, laws, gender norms, education, and employment and income.

Effects

According to Lehrer, religious doctrines may influence the fertility behaviour of individuals through norms surrounding marriage and divorce, contraception, gender roles, abortion, and appropriate family size. The effects are primarily focused on childbearing women and their unions, although predominantly male beliefs take precedence over female fertility desires.

A number of effects have been noted to occur within unions between religious persons and non-religious persons. The effects outline how religiosity impacts choices regarding fertility decisions. The effects vary in impact across different religious groups due to specific doctrines or teachings, and/or levels of individual affiliation.

Bargaining Effect

The Bargaining Effect is recorded when a woman marries out of her religion which results in negative or positive effects depending on the pronatalist ideologies in the theology of the husband's religion. It is characterised by disagreement in fertility and compromise or solution through bargaining.

Marital Stability Effect

Interfaith marriages should have lower fertility rates due to an elevated risk of divorce and thus shorter union.

Expected Effects of Out-Marriage

Religious Composition	Marital Stability Effect	Bargaining Effect	Total Effect
(...) Wife + Catholic Husband vs. Catholic Wife + (...) Husband
Ecumenical Protestant	Negative	Negative	Negative
Exclusivist Protestant	Negative	Negative	Negative
Mormon	Negative	Neutral	Negative
No religion	Negative	Negative	Negative
(...) Wife + ecumenical Protestant Husband vs. ecumenical Protestant Wife + (...) Husband
Catholic	Negative	Positive	Ambiguous
Exclusivist Protestant	Negative	Positive	Ambiguous
Mormon	Negative	Positive	Ambiguous
No religion	Negative	Neutral	Negative
(...) Wife + exclusivist Protestant Husband (same denomination) vs. exclusivist Protestant Wife + (...) Husband
Exclusivist Protestant, different denomination	Negative	Neutral	Negative
Ecumenical Protestant	Negative	Negative	Negative
Catholic	Negative	Positive	Ambiguous
Mormon	Negative	Positive	Ambiguous
No religion	Negative	Negative	Negative
(...) Wife + Mormon Husband vs. Mormon Wife + (...) Husband
Ecumenical Protestant	Negative	Negative	Negative
Exclusivist Protestant	Negative	Negative	Negative
Catholic	Negative	Neutral	Negative
No religion	Negative	Negative	Negative
(...) Wife + no religion Husband vs. no religion Wife + (...) Husband
Ecumenical Protestant	Negative	Neutral	Negative
Exclusivist Protestant	Negative	Positive	Ambiguous
Catholic	Negative	Positive	Ambiguous
Mormon	Negative	Positive	Ambiguous

Natural Homogamy

The acceptance of a son-in-law.

Intrafaith union is characterised by the two partners being raised in the same religious sect. Relationships between people who practice the same religion should wield higher levels of religion-specific human capital as they should abide by the norms of the theology firmly.

Selectivity

Selectivity is where couples or individuals may find a certain aspect or ideology of a religion appealing, and thus are more likely to convert to the religion. Doctrines with pronatalist elements are a common reason to convert. However, selectivity does not necessarily mean the other party will convert but rather adopt the single aspect due to its appealing nature. It is not to be confused with elements of the bargaining effect, where individuals have conflicting views at their core.

Hypotheses

A number of researchers have created theories to discredit or support the Religious Fertility Effect.

Particularised Theory Hypothesis

The Particularised Theory hypothesises that the difference in fertility is due to specific doctrines in religion. Religious denominations with doctrines against contraception and abortion who promote large family units should have a higher fertility rate. Religions who do not have doctrines against forms of contraception and do not promote large family units should have a lower fertility rate.

Characteristics Hypothesis

The Characteristics Hypothesis argues that the difference in fertility among religions is not due to religious doctrines and is attributed to socioeconomic and demographic factors. Socioeconomic and demographic factors should affect all religious denominations and people who are non-denominational and once these factors are controlled differentials should disappear.

Minority Status Hypothesis

Minority Status Hypothesis suggests that declining fertility is due to an understanding of numerical size and psychological acceptance of minority status. For minority status to take effect there has to be acculturation, socioeconomic mobility, and no pronatalist ideology or norms. This hypothesis addresses religious differentials, as well as racial and ethnic groups.

A religious gathering encourages social interaction and sharing of ideals.

Social Interaction Hypothesis

The Social Interaction Hypothesis suggests that religious doctrines are adopted as a form of social adaptation. Through social adaptation members of religious groups are impacted by the other members' fertility behaviour and in turn influence other members' fertility behaviour.

Secularisation Hypothesis

The Secularisation Hypothesis was created to explain the contemporary phenomenon of a statistical decrease in religious affiliation and how it has impacted demographics and thus fertility behaviour.The Secularisation Hypothesis is characterised by an increase in individualism resulting in more extensive fertility choices due to release from religious restrictions and doctrines.

Theologies with codes around fertility

Members of Judaism, a particularised theology, pray at the Western Wall in Jerusalem.

Particularised Theology

Particularised theology is defined by specific doctrines that are intended to guide and instruct its members.

Amish

The Amish generally prohibit the use of contraceptives and are known to resist modernisation. However, there has been an increase in irregular use of birth control methods such as natural family planning and artificial means. They have a relatively low age of marriage, with the median age at 22. The most prevalent form of population control is apostasy which has been increasing. They have an average family size of 6.8.

Eastern Orthodox

There are varying levels of strictness within the Orthodox Church. At one end, the only acceptable form of birth control is abstinence. Similar to Catholic belief, engaging in intercourse should be for the purpose of reproduction. More modern perspectives condone the use of contraceptives as long as it does not interfere with an already fertilised ovum. Abortion should only be an option in extenuating circumstances such as risk to the mother or foreseeable difficulties in raising the child.

Islam

There are no direct teachings in the Qur'an banning or condoning the use of contraceptives, but there is encouragement of procreation. Historically, performing coitus interruptus was allowed or tolerated by the religion. As a result of allowing coitus interruptus most Islamic teachings allow modern use of contraceptives. However, permanent sterilisation in men and women is condemned if the the intent is not to reduce harm to the individual.

Jehovah's Witness

Members of the Jehovah's Witness believe that fertility choices are a personal matter. Couples are able to decide what form of contraception to use, when to have children, and how many children. Forms of contraceptive that do not reject already fertilised ovum are considered to be abiding by the creeds of the religion. Abortion is strictly prohibited as Jehovah's Witnesses are to respect all forms of life.

Judaism

Commandments on contraception are directed at men and specifically command them not to "wastefully emit semen", for this reason women have more choice in contraception. Contraception is only to be used when pregnancy or childbirth poses a risk to the life of the mother, a desire to not have any more children, and for other family planning desires such as spacing out pregnancies. However, contraceptive may not be used to avoid procreation entirely. Only female forms of birth control are condoned and they must not restrict the entering of semen into the body. Acceptable forms are the pill, IUD implantation, among others. The commandment of the most importance to male Jews is "Be Fruitful, and Multiply", this does not apply to females.

Protestant Christian

Recently there has been a move to relaxed views on fertility codes in many Protestant groups. Historically they favoured procreation. Most Protestants approve of contraception although there are still mixed beliefs on abortion. Protestants still report lower levels of contraceptive use than other religions, with the exclusion of Catholics. In marriages that have already sired offspring, the use of contraceptives has no prohibitions and their use is up to the couple to decide. Liberal Christian groups tend to support the use of contraception to "enhance marital love, and protect women's health".

Roman Catholicism

The Catholic church prohibits and condemns any use of artificial contraceptives and sexual activity outside of the marital confines. All acts of sex must be open to the idea of procreation and the only form of birth control permitted is abstinence and natural family planning. The church has expressed that artificial insemination procedures such as in-vitro fertilisation removes the procreation from the control of the couple.

As of 2018, a responsum condoned abortion on the grounds that the uterus could be found and the fertilised ovum is not viable to be carried, thus categorising abortion as the removal of a failed organ.

Scientology

The church of Scientology believes in the Eight Dynamics of which encompasses decisions based on procreation. Scientology does not place any restrictions on the use of contraception and states that individuals and partners are free to decide on their own fertility desires. Although the church does not encourage abortion as they believe it damages the spirtual being of the unborn, they acknowledge that abortion is an option when there are health complications regarding the mother and other personal factors.

Sikhism

Sikhism has no restriction on any form of contraception and partners are free to decide on any fertility choices on their own. Sex should only be performed within the confines of marriage and lust is encouraged to be controlled. Abortion is only condoned in exception circumstances such as health risks and complications, and or resulting from acts such as rape.

Ethical Reflection Theology

Religions of Ethical Reflection Theology gives advice to its members, but members are ultimately responsible for their own actions.

Buddhism

Buddhism has no recommendations surrounding contraceptives or family size as they are not associated with sin. Buddhism is not pronatalist and members are encouraged to seek individual liberation and thus couples are free to decide their own fertility. However, contraception is limited to those that only prevent conception, contraceptives such as the emergency contraception pill are morally wrong as it is wrong to kill no matter the reason. For the same reason IUD's are not morally acceptable as they prevent implantation of a fertilised egg, which by Buddhist understanding has already manifested a consciousness.

Confucianism and Taoism

Confuscianism and Taoism emphasise balance and harmony and thus does not overstate values on procreation.

Hinduism

Hinduism supports balanced family planning. People should not have more children than they can support or the environment can support. Traditionally there is an emphasis on large family sizes.

Statistics

Research shows that religious affiliation has no definite relation to fertility level. Correlation is very low and there are other factors that influence fertility more heavily such as community and socio-economic factors.

The effects of religious affiliation are apparent at the socio-economic level and differences are mostly accounted for within the same country. However, given the same socio-economic circumstances between the religiously unaffliated and the religious, the religious people have more children.

Globally, the average fertility rate is below 2.5 children per woman. In 2015 child mortality rates shown by countries and religions showed that those in the Christian and Islamic faith had higher infant mortality rates. This is followed by Hinduism, Buddhism, the unaffiliated, folk religions, and Judaism. Higher infant mortality rates were also followed by an increasing number of children per woman. These results are influenced by socio-economic factors specific to each country. For example, Christian countries such as Iceland have less than 1% infant mortality rate compared to the Central African Republic, which has a mortality rate of 13.92% with 4.94 live births per woman in 2015.

Major Cultural Transition Effects

Contraceptive and Secular Revolution

The contraceptive revolution is said to have begun with the approval of the contraceptive pill in 1960. The introduction of the contraceptive pill acknowledged that women's choices on contraception represented lifestyle, relationship, and childbearing preferences. It affected both religious and non-religious people and normalised sexual behaviour for pleasure rather than for reproductive purposes. Introduction of the contraceptive pill led to first marriages at a later age and resulted in greater female representation within the workplace. Change from values of family enterprise to those of labour activity contributed to the shift from religious to secular values.

Marriage Boom and Baby Boom

The Baby Boom occured after World War II which saw an increase in the rates of marriage, births, and frequency of births per woman. The Baby Boom revived the declining fertility rate prior to 1940 and ended during the 1960's with the Baby Bust. It was expected that the increasing fertility rates would persist due to economic growth. Bavel and Reher, suggest that the Baby Boom was influenced by post-war optimisim, economic boom, marriage boom, marital fertility, and inefficient contraception.

The Baby Boom coincides with the marriage boom. In Australia, "three quarters of the Australian baby boom can be explained by changes in nuptiality and only one quarter by changes in marital fertility." During the marriage boom the age of marriage decreased, especially in countries that had higher marriage rates prior to the period. Between 1930 and 1960 people ages 20 to 25 who were single dropped by 10%.

Sexual and Divorce Revolution

The introduction of the no-fault divorce bill in 1969 in California by Reagan allowed married couples to dissovle their marriage for any reason or for no reason. The no-fault divorce bill was later adopted by other states. In the 20 year period from the 1960's to the 1980's the divorce rate in the United States more than doubled from 9.2 divorces per thousand women to 22.6 per thousand. Children resulting from separated families of the 1970's are disproportionately poor and less educated than those from married families.

Sexual revolution in the 1960's and 1970's led to an increase in extramarital affairs, while feminist movements and an increase in female employment also correlated with the rise in divorce rates. In the United States, opposition of traditional institutions such as religious institutions lessened the moral control they had to reinforce traditional perspectives but there was also an increasing number of religious institutions that supported the divorce revolution.

Psychological Revolution

The psychological revolution began in the late 1960's and continued throughout the 1970's. It resulted in greater attention to non-material concerns and changed perspectives on traditional unions between men and women and family life as a result of post-war prosperity. Traditional views of marriage and family were of duty, sacrifice, and obligation which were recognised as fundamental prior to the 1960's. The psychological revolution transformed what the goal of marriage was, changing it from an obligation to another or others to oneself. Those who found themselves in marriages who did not meet their expectations were more likely to divorce their partner as opposed to ideals prior to the 1960's. Barbara Dafoe Whitehead commented on divorce within the psychological revolution as "not only an individual right but also a psychological resource. The dissolution of marriage offered the chance to make oneself over from the inside out, to refurbush and express the inner self, and to acquire certain valuable psychological assets and competencies, such as inititative, assertiveness, and a stronger and better self-image." By 1977, only 20% of American women believed that parents at odds in their relationship should stay together for the sake of children.

Women's Education

Higher education among women has a casual relationship with lower fertility rates. The increase in education from the 1950's has seen a decrease in fertility across most countries. In the 1950's Iranian averaged one third of a year of schooling and had an average fertility rate of 7 children per woman; in 2010 Iranian women on average had 9 years of education and fertility rates have decreased to an average of 1.8 children per woman.

Increased levels of education into secondary and tertiary schooling show consistently decreased fertility rates. In Africa, women with tertiary educations consistently had less than 4 children, secondary educated women had 5.5 children at most in Niger. Women eduated at the primary level or lower had at least 4.5 children.

The Role of Religious Practice

According to Mueller the only variable that increases fertility is weekly religious worship. Governments who invest more in their population with higher social spending have lower fertility rates. Totalitarian governments have consistent rates of fertility slightly above 1.0. Development of countries is also correlated to decreased levels of fertility. For example, countries with people with increased per capita savings or expendable income had lower fertility rates. John Mueller's research shows that people with increased levels of worshipping God or deity are more likely to reproduce more frequently. Mueller suggests this result is because more time and personal resources put into frequent religious worship are "systematically associated" with the reproduction of children for the sake of having children rather than for utlitarian purposes.