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2015-16

Meteorology

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Across large areas of north central France May 2016 had been the wettest recorded since the 1882.[1]

Beginning on the last week-end of 28–29 May an omega block pattern of high pressure developed over the north Atlantic.[2]

a large slow moving area of low pressure named ("Elvira" by Free University of Berlin and later "Friedericka") from central France to Ukraine stationary behind block

[3]


[4]

[5]

http://www.theweatherclub.org.uk/useruploads/files/summer2016.pdf

m

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World Weather Attribution, (a programme organised by the Climate Central news organisation with academics and scientists from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, University of Melbourne, Oxford University and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre to accelerate the scientific communities' ability to analyse the role of climate change on extreme weather events)[6] released a preliminary analysis which identified the probability of 3-day extreme rainfall in this season has increased by at least 40 percent in France due to climate change, with estimates of an increase of about 80 percent on the Seine and about 90 percent on the Loire. All four climate model ensembles that simulated the statistical properties of the extremes were found in good overall agreement. Results for Germany were inconclusive.[7] The comparison is based on the trend during the period 1960 to 2016,[7] a period which has seen an increased trend in flooding after a flood poor period.[8] http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/10/paris-floods-made-almost-twice-as-likely-by-climate-change-say-scientists

Tor (Gertrude/Marita)

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Tor set a new measurement record at Kråkenes Lighthouse, where an average wind speed of 48.9 metres per second (176 km/h) recorded, beating the previous Norwegian maximum of 47 m/s.[9] stronger gusts than those during Cyclone Dagmar of 2011, when the station at Kråkenes reported 45.6 metres per second (164 km/h).

December

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SEPA list http://floodlist.com/europe/united-kingdom/16000-properties-flooded-england-december-2015-floods

warmest and wettest December on record from their UK-wide dataset since 1910.recorded 230mm of rain - beating a previous record of 215.7mm, set in November 2009. The previous wettest December on record was in 1929, when 213mm rainfall was recorded, [10][11]

twentieth wettest since 1766, was the wettest in Scotland, though not England and Wales and Northern Ireland where the record from 1919 still stands.[12]

Frank

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Eva

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Chuck FUB, Staffan SMHI http://www.smhi.se/nyhetsarkiv/stormen-staffan-har-passerat-1.98561 2 dead in Norway -http://www.aftonbladet.se/julen2015/article21994596.ab named on 22 Dec by Met Eireann

Torsdag den 24. december 2015.

Der er stormvarsel for alle farvande omkring Færøerne.

Et stormlavtryk, 965 hPa, passerer efterhånden Færøerne fra sydvest og bevæger sig videre mod nordnordøst. Fra i nat nærmer en svag højtryksryg, 1010 hPa, sig Færøerne fra sydvest.

Udsigt, der gælder til fredag middag, udsendt kl. 09.50 utc

Hård vind til hård kuling fra syd og sydvest, der tiltager op til stormende kuling, stedvis storm med kraftige vindstød, men i løbet af eftermiddagen aftager vinden til frisk vind til kuling fra vest og nordvest. Overskyet med en del regn, lokalt i perioder slud og i fjeldene tøsne med temp. mellem 1 og 5 grader. Juleaften tiltager vinden efterhånden op til stormende kuling fra nordvest med vindstød af stormstyrke, men i løbet af natten aftager til frisk vind til kuling. Byger, der efterhånden går over i slud og sne, og temp. falder til mellem 0 og 3 graders varme. Juledag aftager vinden yderligere og bliver let til frisk fra nordvest og nord. Først på dagen endnu snebyger, men efterhånden tørt med vekslende skydække. Temp. omkring frysepunktet.

Bjarni

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faroes? 9474

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cluster https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2015/11/23.html

Uwe

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  1. Diddú 7 December#

Desmond

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Plume of moist air brought to Western Europe by low pressure Desmond

FUB Ted 4-5 December NOR Synne

==

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Cumbria Flooding

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In January 2005, more than 1,000 houses and businesses in Carlisle in Cumbria were swamped by water when the city suffered its worst floods since the 1820s. Thousands abandoned their homes and a power cut plunged Carlisle into darkness after the county was battered by heavy rain and winds gusting at up to 90mph. Three people died in the floods.[13]


return periods and defences. whether the way in which flood risks are communicated are misleading, as 1 in 100 year event means 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year, not that it is expected to happen once every hundred years. also about the dynamic nature of the underlying climate conditions[14]http://phys.org/news/2015-12-unprecedented-storms-common.html http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/dec/09/weatherwtach-ravilious-cumbria-floods-atmospheric-ribbon-katrina-chile

Helga 3-4 Dec

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FUB Rudi, DMI http://www.dmi.dk/vejr/tjenester/varsler/varsel-kommentar/

MI ‏@dmidk 5h5 hours ago View translation

  1. Helga's kraftigste vindstød m/s

34,5 Hirtshals (orkan) 32,7 Skagen Fyr (orkan) 32,6 Frederikshavn 29,8 Stenhøj 28,6 Rønberg Huse

  1. stormdk

8 retweets 3 likes Reply Retweet 8 Like 3 More 

DMI ‏@dmidk  5h5 hours ago
  1. Helga's kraftigste middelvinde m/s

27,1 Hirtshals (storm) 22,8 Skagen Fyr 22,6 Torsminde 21,6 Frederikshavn 21,0 Stenhøj

  1. stormdk

November

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Clodagh/Gorm 29-30 November

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IR satellite view of Gorm 30 November 2015

could be the strongest November storm in Denmark since 1981. (1981 storm http://vejret.tv2.dk/2015-11-24-i-dag-for-34-aar-siden-danmark-ramt-af-historisk-storm)

DMI class 3

Barney

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(Heini FUB) 16–19 November, secondary wave of low centred near Newfoundland stretched towards Ireland, to west of Ireland developed and quickly moved around Ex-Kate low from W of Ireland to Baltic in a day to a nadir of ~985 near Denmark (High Viva over Iberia >1030 helped inc pressure gradient) before moving to Lake Ladoga area and being absorbed by following low Iwan on 19 November.

In Germany, where the storm was known as Heini, the effects of the storm were less than anticipated.[15] In Bremen around 1,400 asylum seekers were temporarily moved from tent camps set up due to the ongoing European migrant crisis into schools overnight.[15] The tents, where asylum seekers were living, have a manufacturer maximum wind force rating of 10, but squalls up to force 11 were expected. Several hundred migrants were also moved out of tents in Dresden and Berlin.[15]

Seasonal mean wind speeds ranged from 5.8 knots (10.8 km/h) at Fermoy (Moore Park), Co Cork to 15.2 knots (28.2 km/h) at Mace Head, Co Galway. Autumn’s highest gust and highest 10-minute wind speed were both reported during Storm Barney (on November 17th), the highest gust was 69 knots (128 km/h) at Shannon Airport, its highest autumn gust since 1984. The highest 10-minute wind speed was 53 knots (98 km/h) at Mace Head, its highest for autumn since the station opened in 2007 and Ireland’s highest autumn 10-minute wind speed since 1998.http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=356 Weather Summaries for Autumn and November 02 December 2015 -http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-weather-reports.asp

Abigail

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Speculation in press that first storm to be named by Met Office/Met Eireann on weekend 7/8 Nov.http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/11/06/is-the-first-officially-named-storm-heading-towards-our-shores/

10 November BBC announced Met Office warnings Abigail expected to impact Scotland http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-34777673

(Frank FUB) 11–17 November. from Canada deepening to ~975 to west of Scotland on 12 November, before moving northwest to be centred near the Faroe Island and reaching nadir of ~970, it then moved over the Norwegian Sea to Svalbard.


Freja

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Peak gust knots screenshot 00h 8 November 2015
Freja storm 8 November 2015, Geos IR cloud

(Binrasheed, FUB) 7–10 November (main impact evening 7–8 November, Denmark). Began developing as secondary low to a large Iceland low on the Celtic Sea to west of Finisterre. A tight pressure gradient with a high over the Alps named Ulrika >1030 hPa to nadir around 995 hPa over Skagerrak. Class-1 storm over Denmark by DMI, [16]

June

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Quintus

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-From https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/posts/898470506878348" Northern Hemisphere summer months tend to be the quietest weather wise across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans...

Posted by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC">NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center</a> on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/posts/898470506878348">Monday, June 29, 2015</a>

Northern Hemisphere summer months tend to be the quietest weather wise across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans (extratropical cyclones), but yesterday across the North Atlantic was a rare exception. A strong low pressure intensified about 20mb in a 24 hour time span, generating hurricane force (HF) winds and significant wave heights approaching 25 feet. A couple of interesting notes pertaining to HF extratropical cyclone activity: - It was the first instance of hurricane force winds across the North Atlantic since April 20 - It was the first June instance of hurricane force winds since 2006

July

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Zeljko

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tree blown over in Amsterdam

2015 Summer storm in the Netherlands zomerse kanaalrat, summer channel rat

Im Süden auch kräftige Gewitter. In der Nacht auch im Nordwesten erste Gewitter. Am Samstag im Westen, in der Mitte und im Norden Sturm!

The low pressure moved over Brittany and up the Channel towards Belgium. linked to a moist subtropical air within... Letzte Aktualisierung: 24.07.2015, 13.40 Uhr Deutscher Wetterdienst

position of the jet stream.[17]

The wind reached in IJmuiden according to preliminary figures an hourly average wind force 10. So one high hourly in July not previously measured.[18]

http://www.focus.de/wissen/videos/unwettergefahr-in-halb-deutschland-130-km-h-hier-zieht-sturmtief-zeljko-am-abend-und-in-der-nacht-hin_id_4838782.html

Andreas http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central#extra-uk-content http://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article144459129/Tief-Andreas-bringt-Regen-und-Sturm.html

August

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Bonimir

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https://www.facebook.com/MeteoGroupUK/photos/a.414953196305.193095.50160216305/10153496725636306/?type=1&theater

September

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On 8 September 2015 the Met Office and Met Eireann announced that they were going to begin naming storms as a pilot project during 2015/2016.[19][20] users to suggest names via facebook, email and twitter. names collated into a list alternating male and female names to be used during the winter.

A storm will be named when it is deemed to have the potential to cause ‘medium’ or ‘high’ wind impacts on the UK and/or Ireland, i.e. if a yellow, orange or red warning for wind has been issued by Met Éireann and/or the Met Office.[21]

Seen as a good idea, as informal names have been increasingly used in recent years,[22] especially on social media. Though could be some confusion during storm clusters, though it could increase public awareness of when impacts are likely.[22] Another potential issue could there being various thresholds as to storm strength and regions it could affect, as a high impact storm in densely populated SE generally relatively common in NW scotland, but naming such storms runs the risk of warnings becoming seen as damp squib in the SE.[22]

Michael

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http://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actualite-meteo/2015-09-13-16h11/france---coup-de-vent--a-quoi-s-attendre-demain---28807.php

Henri

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11857047/Tropical-storm-Henri-could-batter-Britain-forecasters-warn.html

Clim text

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Although many areas were affected in winter 2013/4, the actual numbers of flooded properties was less than in previous periods. In summer 2007 United Kingdom floods, over 55,000 homes and around 7,000 businesses were flooded, largely in England. The peak figure for January-February 2014 was over 6,000 flooded properties. Overall the December and early January storms resulted in around 1,700 properties being flooded across England1, and the late January and February storms resulted in more than 6,000 flooded properties[23]

The Autumn floods of 2000 saw the wettest autumn on record across the UK, according to the Met Office, which says that 10,000 homes and businesses were flooded across 700 locations.[24]

2014 flooding saw longer duration of above average rainfall, in contrast to 2007, when much of the damage was done by one really big storm.[24]

If you look at the worst-affected areas, the Midlands had 269% of its average rainfall in June 2007, while south-east/central southern England had 258% of its average rainfall January 2014.[24]


October

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Roar (Nor) Unnamed (FUB) Valio (Finland)

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wind and heavy rain

Finally, an examination of the typical synoptic situation producing severe storms in Ireland confirms that it is most often a rapidly developing secondary depression that does the damage. A primary depression, slow moving or stationary in the vicinity of Iceland anchors the airflow and acts as the generator for a rapidly moving wave disturbance. Such a quasistationary depression in the vicinity of Iceland is common in midwinter. The "Icelandic Low' is both a thermal response to the North Atlantic Drift and also a dynamic response to the perturbations induced in the upper westerly airflow as the jetstreams cross the Western Cordillera of North America. Further work is however required to quantify how many severe Irish storms have originated in this way. One of the intriguing research questions related to this is whether the present 'secondary-low' mechanism has always been dominant. Lamb (1991) suggests that the passage ofdeeper. larger-scale features at a greater distance may have been a more frequent occurrence in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. Finally, further work is required to ascertain what role sea surface temperature changes may play in Irish storm climatology. This is needed to clarify whether the conditions for cyclogenesis are likely to alter in the North Atlantic as global climate changes take root and the amount of energy that can be liberated as latent heat of condensation in the vicinity of Ireland increases. [25]

References

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  1. ^ "Paris floods as France prepares to hosting Euro 2016". The Independent. 1 June 2016. Retrieved 3 June 2016.
  2. ^ Moore, Chloe (2 June 2016). "rmets". SoundCloud. Royal Meteorological Society. Retrieved 3 June 2016.
  3. ^ Dutton, Liam (2 June 2016). "Europe floods: why has the rain been so intense? | Liam Dutton on Weather". Channel 4 News. Retrieved 3 June 2016.
  4. ^ Moore, Tom (1 June 2016). "Here's What Caused the Deadly Floods in Germany and France". The Weather Channel. Retrieved 3 June 2016.
  5. ^ Ziese, Markus; Thomas, Junghänel; Becker, Andreas. "Andauernde Großwetterlage Tief Mitteleuropa entfaltet Ihr Unwetterpotential mit starken Gewittern und massiven Schadensgeschehen in Deutschland" (PDF) (in German). DWD. Retrieved 3 June 2016.
  6. ^ "Our Story". World Weather Attribution. 13 April 2016. Retrieved 10 June 2016.
  7. ^ a b "European Rainstorms, May 2016". World Weather Attribution. 9 June 2016. Retrieved 10 June 2016.
  8. ^ "North West floods – Hydrological update". Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. 8 December 2015. Retrieved 10 June 2016.
  9. ^ Buvarp Aardal, Eline (29 January 2016). "Ekstremvêret Tor sett vindrekord" (in Norwegian). NRK. Retrieved 30 January 2016.
  10. ^ Gosden, Emily; Jamieson, Sophie (5 January 2016). "December 2015 was wettest month ever recorded in UK". The Telegraph. Retrieved 11 January 2016.
  11. ^ "December 2015 breaks records". Met Office. 5 January 2016. Retrieved 11 January 2016.
  12. ^ Booker, Christopher (9 January 2016). "Met Office's 'wettest ever' claim fails again". The Telegraph. Retrieved 11 January 2016.
  13. ^ "Cumbria floods: history of recent storms". The Telegraph. 20 November 2009. Retrieved 9 December 2015.
  14. ^ Alexander, Ruth (7 December 2015). "Flood risk: what is a 'one in a 100 year' event?". BBC Radio 4. Retrieved 9 December 2015.
  15. ^ a b c "Sturmtief «Heini» Stromausfälle in Irland, wenig Schäden in Deutschland" (in German). Neue Zürcher Zeitung. 18 November 2015. Retrieved 18 November 2015.
  16. ^ Lietzen, Christian; Brandt, Marianne (9 November 2015). "Freja fejede over os i ly af natten". DMI. Retrieved 19 November 2015.
  17. ^ Dutton, Liam (23 July 2015). "Rain and gales expected. Where has summer gone?". Channel 4 News. Retrieved 26 July 2015.
  18. ^ "Weeralarm voor zware zomerstorm" (in Dutch). KMNI. 26 July 2015. Retrieved 26 July 2015.
  19. ^ "Name our storms". Met Office. 8 September 2015. Retrieved 9 September 2015.
  20. ^ "Name our storms". Met Eireann. 8 September 2015. Retrieved 9 September 2015.
  21. ^ Cite error: The named reference MetEireann was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  22. ^ a b c Dutton, Liam (8 September 2015). "Met Office to name wind storms: how will it work?". Channel 4. Retrieved 9 September 2015.
  23. ^ "Adverse weather conditions in December 2013 and January and February 2014" (PDF). Office of National Statistics. Retrieved 10 September 2015.
  24. ^ a b c Reuben, Anthony (13 February 2014). "UK floods: How bad have these floods been?". BBC News. Retrieved 10 September 2015.
  25. ^ Sweeney, John (January 2000). "A three-century storm climatology for Dublin 1715–2000". Irish Geography. 33 (1): 1–14. doi:10.1080/00750770009478595. {{cite journal}}: |access-date= requires |url= (help)
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