User:Hostgeeky

I think this pretty much sums it up:

1 The decline represents a change in the rate of retention of desirable, good-faith newcomers.

• The proportion of newcomers that edit in good-faith has not changed since 2006.
• These desirable newcomers are more likely to have their work rejected since 2007.

2 This increased rejection predicts the observed decline in retention.

• Semi-autonomous vandal fighting tools (like Huggle) are partially at fault.
• An increasing proportion of desirable newcomers are having their work rejected by automated tools.
• These automated reverts exacerbate the predicted negative effects of rejection on retention.
• Users of Huggle tend to not engage in the best practices for discussing the reverts they perform.

3 New users are being pushed out of policy articulation.

• The formalized process for vetting new policies and changes to policies ensures that newcomers' edits do not survive.
• Both newcomers and experienced editors are moving increasingly toward less formal spaces.