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User:Doc James/Mortality

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  • Total COVID19 deaths 2,712,000[1]
  • Total deaths per day 153,274 (COVID19 is 6.9% of deaths)

US deaths

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In 2017 2,813,503/365 = 7,709 people died in the USA per day. In the USA 2,482 people died from COVID19 on Apr 15st (32% of all deaths).

Mortality estimates

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Why the WSJ is wrong

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On March 24th the WSJ published a claim that "the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%" or maybe even "a mortality rate of 0.01%".[1]

We, however, already have a clear lower possible limit of mortality in a Western population in Lombardy (population 10 million). So far there has been 14,745 deaths there.[2] That means the absolute lowest possible mortality is 0.15% (14,745/10,078,012).

This lowest possible mortality requires:

  1. No further people to die in this region, ie all 25,392 known active cases including 1,324 severe cases survive.[3]
  2. Everyone who is not an active case has already gotten the disease and either recovered or is asymptomatic.
  3. All the people who died in Lombardy without having a diagnosis of COVID-19, died from something that wasn't COVID-19.[4]

This means for the mortality to be:

  • 0.4%: 25% of the Lombardy needs to have been infected and not diagnosed or 2.5 million (49 out of 50 not diagnosed)
  • 1%: 10% of Lombardy or 1 million (19 out of 20 not diagnosed)
  • 4%: 2.5% of Lombardy or 250,000 (4 out of 5 not diagnosed)

Currently diagnosed cases is 53,414 (Apr 8th)

Others

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Castiglione d'Adda As of April 1st 67 to 80 out of 4,500 residents of this town were dead from the disease (1.5 to 1.8%).[5][6] Age distribution is here.

New York City 19,626 deaths[7] / 8,398,748 people = 0.23% (NYC gives 0.18%), Bronx's (3,487/1,418,207=0.25%)[8]

Gangelt 43 dead out of 42,000 people = 0.1%[9]

China

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China's outbreak is nearly over as of March 31th. We have 81,518 cases, 3,305 deaths, and 2,161 active cases with 528 still seriously or critically sick.[10] The chance that China is underestimating the number of cases is fairly equal to the chance that they are underestimating the number of deaths.

3,305/81,518 = 4%, (3,305+518)/81,518 = 4.7%

Keep in mind that about 6% of the population of China is over the age of 70.[11] Compared to 16% in Italy and 10% in the USA. Also keep in mind that China send >20,000 healthcare workers and build >3,600 hospital beds in the city most affected thus keeping their from being a full on healthcare collapse.

Nearly everyone on the Diamond Princess was tested and 712 cases were found (145 crew and 567 passengers). Of these cases 12 have died and 82 remain infected with 10 in critical condition.

14/712 = 2% , (14+4)/712 = 2.5%

Yes the population on the ship was likely older (an average of 69 for the passengers) but the crew was an average of 36 years old. The passengers were also likely healthier for their age and wealthier. Additionally they had access to unlimited healthcare. One concern with this data is some deaths may have been missed.

References

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  1. ^ a b "Coronavirus Death Toll and Trends - Worldometer". www.worldometers.info. Retrieved 18 November 2020.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n GBD 2017 Causes of Death, Collaborators. (10 November 2018). "Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017". Lancet (London, England). 392 (10159): 1736–1788. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7. PMID 30496103. {{cite journal}}: |first1= has generic name (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  3. ^ "Suicide across the world (2016)". World Health Organization. 2019-09-27. Retrieved 2019-10-16.
  4. ^ Guidelines for the control of shigellosis, including epidemics due to Shigella dysenteriae type 1 (PDF). WHO. 2005. p. 2. ISBN 978-9241593304. Archived (PDF) from the original on 21 August 2017. Retrieved 20 April 2017.
  5. ^ "Influenza (Seasonal)". www.who.int. Retrieved 24 March 2020.
  6. ^ "First Global Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Mortality Released by CDC-Led Collaboration | CDC". www.cdc.gov. 20 November 2019. Retrieved 24 March 2020.
  7. ^ Tate JE, Burton AH, Boschi-Pinto C, Parashar UD (May 2016). "Global, Regional, and National Estimates of Rotavirus Mortality in Children <5 Years of Age, 2000-2013". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 62 Suppl 2 (Suppl 2): S96–S105. doi:10.1093/cid/civ1013. PMID 27059362.
  8. ^ "Global Burden of Norovirus and Prospects for Vaccine Development" (PDF). CDC. August 2015. p. 3. Retrieved 29 December 2017.
  9. ^ GBD 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death, Collaborators. (8 October 2016). "Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015". Lancet. 388 (10053): 1459–1544. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31012-1. PMC 5388903. PMID 27733281. {{cite journal}}: |first1= has generic name (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)