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User:Cool3/Desysop

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De-sysopped users are taken from Wikipedia:Requests for de-adminship. This is not an analysis of what went wrong; I have specifically not attempted to present any judgment of my own on the admin's actions (I have removed, though, desysopping due to compromised accounts). This is instead an analysis of the RfAs of admins who were later desysopped t see what, if anything, we can learn.

Sample

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  1. Ævar Arnfjörð Bjarmason (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  2. Carnildo (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  3. Karmafist (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks confirmedsuspected · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  4. Husnock (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  5. Yanksox (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  6. Geni (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  7. Freakofnurture (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  8. Robdurbar (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  9. Shreshth91 (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  10. Zscout370 (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  11. Ike9898 (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  12. Bedford (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  13. Hemanshu (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks confirmed · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  14. Mitchazenia (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  15. Freestylefrappe (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks confirmedsuspected · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  16. NSLE (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  17. Dbiv (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  18. Everyking (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  19. Marudubshinki (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  20. MONGO (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  21. Seabhcan (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  22. Betacommand (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks confirmedsuspected · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  23. Runcorn (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  24. Rama's Arrow (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  25. Alkivar (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  26. Archtransit (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks confirmedsuspected · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  27. Tango (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  28. FeloniousMonk (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  29. Henrygb (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks confirmed · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  30. Eyrian (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks confirmedsuspected · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  31. Can't sleep, clown will eat me (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)

Notes:Users with no RfA removed. User:Guanaco removed; too complicated for our purposes and one removal shouldn't skew results significantly.

Data

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# User Number of RfAs Months Active Edit Count Support !Votes Oppose !Votes Neutral !Votes Support % Self-nom? Year of RfA
1 Ævar Arnfjörð Bjarmason 1 4 800 19 3 0 86.4% No 2004
2 Carnildo 1[1] 19 5000 40 4 2 90.9% No 2005
3 Karmafist 1 14 2359 53 2 1 96.4% No 2005
4 Husnock 1 21 10510 43 2 1 95.6% No 2006
5 Yanksox 1 5 8200 104 4 7 96.3% No 2006
6 Geni 1 8 1200 17 5 1 77.2% Yes 2004
7 Freakofnurture 1 9 2956 64 2 0 97.0% No 2005
8 Robdurbar 1 13 7313 48 3 2 94.1% Yes 2006
9 Shreshth91 1 6 2300 22 0 0 100% Yes 2005
10 Zscout370 1 6 Roughly 8500 98 2 0 98.0% No 2005
11 Ike9898 1 8 500 7 0 0 100% Yes 2004
12 Bedford 1 34 14873 82 4 5 95.3% No 2008
13 Hemanshu 1 3 2000 13 0 0 100% Yes 2004
14 Mitchazenia 2 25 15356 55 6 2 90.2% No 2007
15 Freestylefrappe 2 14 3000 38 11 3 77.6% No 2005
16 NSLE 1 3 2040 71 1 2 98.6% No 2005
17 Dbiv 1 10 2000 14 0 1 100% Yes 2005
18 Everyking 1 3 5200 20 1 0 95.2% No 2004
19 Marudubshinki 1 7 4600 19 2 1 90.5% No 2005
20 MONGO 1 8 6107 58 14 3 80.6% No 2005
21 Seabhcan 1 20 2642 22 2 5 91.7% Yes 2005
22 Betacommand 1 11 7630 73 3 3 96% No 2006
23 Runcorn 1 8 5700 39 1 0 97.5% No 2006
24 Rama's Arrow 2 12 19000 159 0 0 100% No 2006
25 Alkivar 3 16 7000 69 20 8 77.5% No 2005
26 Archtransit 1 7 3143 53 0 0 100% No 2008
27 Tango 1 8 1596 58 0 5 100% Yes 2006
28 FeloniousMonk 1 11 2750 64 15 9 81.0% No 2005
29 Henrygb 2 16 4880 24 0 0 100% Yes 2005
30 Eyrian 1 24 4943 39 8 11 83.0% No 2007
31 Can't sleep, clown will eat me 3 6 18000 246 12 5 95.3% Yes 2006

Exemplary sample (crats, checkuser, oversight)

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  1. Andrevan (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks confirmed · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  2. Anonymous Dissident (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  3. Avraham (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  4. Cecropia (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  5. Deskana (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  6. Dweller (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  7. EVula (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  8. Linuxbeak (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  9. Nichalp (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  10. Carcharoth (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  11. Casliber (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  12. Cool Hand Luke (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  13. Coren (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  14. David Gerard (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  15. FT2 (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  16. FayssalF (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  17. Charles Matthews (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)
  18. Daniel Case (talk · contribs · count · logs · target logs · block log · lu · rfas · rfb · arb · rfc · lta · checkuser · socks · rights · blocks · protects · deletions · moves)

Data 2

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# User Number of RfAs Months Active Edit Count Support !Votes Oppose !Votes Neutral !Votes Support % Self-nom? Year of RfA
1 Andrevan 1 14 1801 20 0 0 100% No 2004
2 Anonymous Dissident 2 7 10000 165 1 2 99.4% No 2007
3 Avraham 1 11 3700 63 5 1 92.6% No 2006
4 Cecropia 1 3 800 36 10 0 78.3% No 2004
5 Deskana 1 10 2000 54 2 3 96.4% Yes 2006
6 Dweller 1 18 8700 108 0 0 100% No 2007
7 EVula 1 11 3000 62 0 0 100% No 2006
8 Linuxbeak 1 4 2583 45 4 1 91.8% No 2005
9 Nichalp 1 8 2000 14 2 1 87.5% No 2004
10 Carcharoth 1 33 26455 147 0 0 100% No 2007
11 Casliber 1 10 8344 49 0 0 100% No 2007
12 Cool Hand Luke 1 7 1050 16 3 1 84.2% Yes 2004
13 Coren 3 7 5055 51 1 2 98.0% No 2007
14 David Gerard 1 4 4000 39 0 0 100% No 2004
15 FT2 2 29 14000 56 7 3 88.9% No 2007
16 FayssalF 1 8 4099 39 1 0 97.5% No 2005
17 Charles Matthews 1 8 4800 7 0 0 100% No 2004
18 Daniel Case 1 29 23648 40 5 3 88.9% No 2007

Control group - twenty random admins

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#{{Admincheck|Johan Elisson}} #{{Admincheck|SoWhy}} #{{Admincheck|Tabercil}} #{{Admincheck|Maury Markowitz}} #{{Admincheck|Garzo}} #{{Admincheck|Edcolins}} #{{Admincheck|Lacrimosus}} #{{Admincheck|Nv8200p}} #{{Admincheck|Exploding Boy}} #{{Admincheck|Henrik}} #{{Admincheck|MoRsE}} #{{Admincheck|Phaedriel}} #{{Admincheck|Encephalon}} #{{Admincheck|Utcursch}} #{{Admincheck|Aqwis}} #{{Admincheck|Arjun01}} #{{Admincheck|BD2412}} #{{Admincheck|Dinoguy1000}} #{{Admincheck|Pengo}} #{{Admincheck|Kzollman}}

Data 3

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# User Number of RfAs Months Active Edit Count Support !Votes Oppose !Votes Neutral !Votes Support % Self-nom? Year of RfA
1 Johan Elisson 1 24 10000 64 0 0 100% No 2006
2 SoWhy 1 54 7681 123 15 8 89.1% No 2008
3 Tabercil 1 27 9018 44 1 0 97.8% No 2007
4 Maury Markowitz 1 24 5000 10 0 0 100% No 2004
5 Garzo 1 11 Roughly 4000 37 0 0 100% No 2005
6 Edcolins 1 17 11000 27 1 0 96.4% No 2005
7 Lacrimosus 1 14 4727 36 1 0 97.3% Yes 2005
8 Nv8200p 1 25 8200 25 0 1 100% No 2005
9 Exploding Boy 1 3 Roughly 1000 22 3 1 88% No 2004
10 Henrik 1 12 3000 39 1 1 97.5% No 2007
11 MoRsE 3 10 6300 50 2 0 96.1% Yes 2007
12 Phaedriel 2 8 5168 271 6 5 97.8% No 2006
13 Encephalon 3 8 Roughly 4000 125 1 0 99.2% No 2006
14 Utcursch 1 13 3750 19 0 0 100% No 2005
15 Aqwis 1 13 2576 49 3 4 94.2% No 2008
16 Arjun01 1 5 9000 111 1 2 99.1% No 2007
17 BD2412 1 10 32763 183 0 0 100% No 2005
18 Dinoguy1000 1 34 11036 83 1 2 98.8% No 2009
19 Pengo 1 35 7484+ 47 11 3 81.0% Yes 2006
20 Kzollman 1 7 2297 24 0 0 100% No 2005

Questions and preliminary conclusions

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Multiple RfAs

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Many editors are suspicious of candidates who have had multiple RfAs. Are editors with lots of RfAs really more likely to end up as problem admins?

The evidence here is somewhat mixed, but on the whole I'm not really seeing any strong correlation between lots of RfAs and a bad admin, although there is some sort of connection. Of the 31 desysopped admins, 6 (19.4%) had multiple RfAs. In the exemplary group, 3 out of 18 admins had multiple RfAs (16.7%). Out of the control group, though, only 2 (10%) had multiple RfAs. I'll leave you to form your own conclusions based on this data, as there is room for interpretation in many directions. On the whole, though this data certainly suggests that reflexively opposing multiple RfA candidates is clearly unjustified.

Experience

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How long does it take to become good admin material? Are inexperienced admins more likely to end up being desysopped?

Because our samples span the entire history of RfA, and standards have changed, straightforward averages are unlikely to be useful in answering this question. A simple examination of the data, just eyeballing it, though seems to show no link between experience and later quality. Just about all of the admins here, in all categories, had what was considered "enough" experience for the time when they were promoted. Candidates with very high levels of experience ended up desysopped (e.g., Rama's Arrow and Bedford) while others with low levels (Cool Hand Luke and Cecropia) ended up in the exemplary sample. There is undoubtedly some minimum level of experience required for adminship, but no evidence here shows that either barely reaching that level or amply exceeding it results in a better administrator.

The Discretion Zone

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Are candidates whose RfAs pass in the "discretion zone" (<80% support) more likely to end up as poor administrators?

The data here is really insufficient to render a verdict. Only 4 of the admins studied here passed in the discretion zone. 3 of them came from the desysop group (9.6% of those desysopped) while 1 came from the exemplary group (5.6% of exemplary admins). So yes, there is some suggestion here that "discretion zone" admins are more likely to be desysopped, but it's really hard to form a conclusion on such limited data.

Overall support percentage

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Beyond the discretion zone, does the overall support percentage matter? Are those who receive more support more likely to turn out as good admins?

The answer here is again complicated. 8 of the 31 desysopped admins passed through RfA with unanimous (100%) support. So clearly, it was hard for the RfA !voters to see their future coming.

On average, the desysopped admins received 92.96% support in their RfAs.[2] The exemplary group received 94.64% support in their RfAs. The control group admins received 96.62% support in their RfAs. So for all of the groups, the percentage was in the 90s. The desysopped group did have slightly less support, but hardly to a significant level. Whatever the link between support percentages and outcomes, though, I think it is fairly clear that raising requirements wouldn't do much good. In order to eliminate 50% of the desysopped admins, we would have to raise the requirement in excess of 95% which would also eliminate 39% of the exemplary sample.

Self-noms

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Many editors regard self nominations with a certain suspicion. Is there reason to believe that editors who self-nominate will make poor admins?

It seems that there may some reason for this concern. In the desysop group, nearly 1/3 of editors self-nominated (32%) while in the exemplary group only 11% self-nommed and in the control group 15% self-nommed. This is the most statistically significant finding in this study so far, but we are still dealing with a fairly small set of data.

Notes

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  1. ^ RfAs after desysopping are considered irrelevant
  2. ^ These percentages are the averages of the percentage supporting, not the overall support percentage that one would get by adding up all supports and opposes.