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User:Bob rulz/2008-09 NBA season predictions

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Final predictions as of October 29, 2008. I will not change any of these for any reason from now on.

Predictions

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Regular season

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Eastern Conference

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Atlantic Division
Team W L Analysis
Boston Celtics 61 21 (1) They won't win 66 games again this year due to a stronger conference, but they will continue to excel. The Big Three is just dominant.
Philadelphia 76ers 51 31 (3) With Elton Brand on board and a host of good, young talent, they will improve markedly this year and position themselves as one of the top teams in the East. However, I'm not yet ready to put them into true contender status. Give them 1 or 2 more years for the young talent to improve and to see how Brand fits in.
Toronto Raptors 46 36 (6) They'll certainly improve with Jose Calderon ready to take over and Jermaine O'Neal on board, as well as a consistently underrated Chris Bosh dominating the frontcourt, but I don't know how much O'Neal will actually improve the team. O'Neal's potential to return to stardom makes this a potential sleeper team, however.
New York Knicks 30 52 x Mike D'Antoni will instill a new sense of confidence in this team and they'll exceed expectations, but there's too much excess and too many bad memories of the Isiah Thomas era for a quick turnaround.
New Jersey Nets 19 63 x There's just not enough talent here to excel. Vince Carter has grown up, but he will still be unhappy here and he may be dealt by the trade deadline. At least Devin Harris will play well. This is the worst team in the East.
Central Division
Team W L Analysis
Detroit Pistons 54 28 (2) Although Detroit is ever so slowly sliding from dominance, they are still a powerful team, with good depth and a few critical young pieces. They have one more year to prove something.
Cleveland Cavaliers 47 35 (5) Yes, they have LeBron James. Yes, they got Mo Williams. But Mo Williams is not enough to improve this team more than a few games. They still have chemistry issues and just not nearly enough role support for King James. If King James were to ever get a supporting cast on par with Michael Jordan's, he could join ranks with M.J. and Wilt Chamberlain as one of the 3 best players in NBA history. No, that's not a stretch.
Chicago Bulls 41 41 (8) Improved cohesion and a new coach will improve the atmosphere, but the biggest difference will be the inclusion of Derrick Rose. Yes, he will make a difference.
Indiana Pacers 35 47 x This is one of the harder teams in the league to read. Sure they got rid of Jermaine O'Neal, but he hasn't been a huge help in recent years. The million-dollar question here is how much will the role players step up to give this team cohesion? I believe if the pieces come together right, this is another sleeper team.
Milwaukee Bucks 29 53 x They will improve on last year's record with the inclusion of Richard Jefferson and a new coach, but the pieces still just don't fit together. Ramon Sessions is a potential breakout star. Jefferson and a new atmosphere makes this yet another hard-to-read potential sleeper team.
Southeast Division
Team W L Analysis
Orlando Magic 48 34 (4) A tougher division and no significant improvements to their line-up means a slight drop in standings, but they'll still be a solid team.
Washington Wizards 45 37 (7) Yes, Gilbert Arenas will be lost for the first bit of the season, but he will return and they will at least match last year's success. However, health is always a concern and how well will Arenas play coming off of 3 knee surgeries? This is a potential sleeper team with the "Big Three" of Arenas, Antawn Jamison, and Caron Butler. If all of the pieces can come together just right, they may challenge in the one year when everyone is overlooking them.
Miami Heat 40 42 x I'm not ready to put them back as a contender just yet like many are, but the addition of Michael Beastley and Dwyane Wade's return to superstar status, as well as Shawn Marion's potential as a trade tool, means they will make significant improvements.
Atlanta Hawks 33 49 x They'll have to upgrade that bench more if they have any hopes of repeating last year's mini-success. The loss of Josh Childress will hurt a lot more than they realize.
Charlotte Bobcats 33 49 x Maybe a bit too soon to be giving them such an improvement, but the young players are coming together and I think they will make fairly significant strides. But not enough for any huge improvement just yet.

Western Conference

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Northwest Division
Team W L Analysis
Utah Jazz 58 24 (2) Ah yes, the king of the underrated teams. They didn't make any significant changes because they didn't need to, and their discipline and remarkable efficiency will only improve this year. All of the role players will step up and improve and Deron Williams is ready to take the division by the throat.
Portland Trail Blazers 48 34 (7) I'm not ready to jump on the bandwagon just yet. Yes, this is one of the best crops of young talent the NBA has ever seen, but how cohesive will this unit be? Cohesive enough to squeak into the playoffs, at least.
Denver Nuggets 38 44 x This is a team ready to implode. The hand-away of Marcus Camby was a triumphant mistake on par with the Paul Gasol gift last year, except that unlike the Grizzlies, the Nuggets still had the pieces to be successful and didn't need to rebuild yet. They've essentially forced a rebuilding mode upon themselves. It's unfortunate that Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony must continue to share backcourt time together when both of them deserve to anchor their own teams and Anthony is ready to take over as a superstar.
Minnesota Timberwolves 28 54 x They will improve on last year's record as the young talent gains more experience and Al Jefferson becomes a beast, but there's just not enough experience and too much competition for them to make a serious run at anything.
Oklahoma City Thunder 14 68 x Have fun watching Kevin Durant light up the stats sheet, Oklahoma. At least it will turn the attention away from the scoreboard.
Pacific Division
Team W L Analysis
Los Angeles Lakers 64 18 (1) This Lakers team has the potential to be one of the best teams of the post-Jordan era, nearly par with that certain Lakers dynasty earlier this millennium. Note that says potential. Kobe Bryant seems to have gotten his ego in check, now lets see if Andrew Bynum can mesh with the line-up, if Lamar Odom will keep his mouth shut, and if the role players will produce. If so, they will light up the scoreboard every night.
Phoenix Suns 50 32 (5) An even tougher conference and a team on the decline (how old is Steve Nash now? 65?) means this team will barely even scrape into the playoffs this year. Amare Stoudemire, however, will finally turn into a true superstar. He may single-handedly contribute to a few wins and is preventing the Suns from sliding further.
Los Angeles Clippers 40 42 x The additions of Marcus Camby and Baron Davis are huge, although so is losing Corey Maggette. Either way, I think they've added enough to become an X factor and become a spoiler team in another ultra-competitive race.
Golden State Warriors 33 49 x Losing Baron Davis and having Monta Ellis miss the beginning of the season means this team will really struggle to get off the ground. Expect a huge drop-off for the once-spoiler of the #1-seeded Mavericks.
Sacramento Kings 18 54 x They've lost Mike Bibby and Ron Artest. Yes, they have Kevin Martin, but can you say rebuilding? Earlier this decade, this team was in the conference championship race every year. How long ago that seems now.
Southwest Division
Team W L Analysis
New Orleans Hornets 58 24 (3) This team is for real. They have Chris Paul at the helm and a very strong supporting cast, and they're ready to take the mantle of the Southwest Division long-term.
San Antonio Spurs 53 29 (4) Losing Manu Ginobili for the first 2+ months is huge. While this team is slowly on the decline, Tim Duncan is still a beast and the team will always remain disciplined and efficient. However, they just don't have the punch that they used to and they're not adding young players fast enough to make up for the grizzled cast. They still have 2 or so years remaining to be dominant, but their dynasty period has passed.
Houston Rockets 49 33 (6) Yes, they added Ron Artest, but Tracy McGrady has admitted that he's not yet back to full heatlh, and neither him nor Yao Ming can seem to stay healthy for more than 1 game at a time. Health will always be an issue for this continually underachieving team, and there's always that huge issue of underachieving. Oh, and did I mention they underachieve?
Dallas Mavericks 45 37 (8) Their time has passed. Barring another major trade to shake things up, the Jason Kidd trade would appear to be a mistake. Dirk Nowitzki is still a great player, but Dallas doesn't strike fear in people like they used to.
Memphis Grizzlies 22 60 x Sorry Grizzlies. I'm aware that you have a lot of raw, young talent, but notice the key word here: raw. You'll be contenders down the road, but the Western Conference is just too dominant.

Playoffs

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Eastern Conference

  • (1) Boston Celtics over (8) Chicago Bulls 4-1
  • (2) Detroit Pistons over (7) Washington Wizards 4-2
  • (6) Toronto Raptors over (3) Philadelphia 76ers 4-3
  • (5) Cleveland Cavaliers over (4) Orlando Magic 4-2
  • (1) Boston Celtics over (6) Toronto Raptors 4-1
  • (5) Cleveland Cavaliers over (2) Detroit Pistons 4-3
  • (1) Boston Celtics over (2) Cleveland Cavaliers 4-2

Western Conference

  • (1) Los Angeles Lakers over (8) Dallas Mavericks 4-1
  • (2) Utah Jazz over (7) Portland Trail Blazers 4-2
  • (6) Houston Rockets over (3) New Orleans Hornets 4-3
  • (4) San Antonio Spurs over (5) Phoenix Suns 4-1
  • (1) Los Angeles Lakers over (6) Houston Rockets 4-2
  • (2) Utah Jazz over (4) San Antonio Spurs 4-3
  • (1) Los Angeles Lakers over (2) Utah Jazz 4-2

Championship

  • (1) Los Angeles Lakers over (1) Boston Celtics 4-3
  • The Celtics have as good of a chance as the Lakers I believe, but I have to pick a winner and the Lakers are just so dominant. Defense still wins championships, but the Lakers' offense is so potent and I think their defense is adequate. The return to health of Bynum will be a huge factor and the Lakers are potentially one of the most dangerous teams of this decade. It will be a tough, physical, grinding battle and the Lakers will barely come out victoriously. But I won't be surprised if the Celtics win either.

All-Star Game

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Eastern Conference

Starters:

Backups:

Injury replacements (if needed):

Western Conference

Starters:

Backups:

Injury replacements (if needed):

Awards

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All-NBA First Team:

All-NBA Second Team:

All-NBA Third Team:

Leaders

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Playoffs

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Here are my official pre-playoff predictions. I actually got 13 of the 16 playoff teams right, but the seeding ended up much differently than I expected. So here's my predictions of how this postseason will turn out.

Eastern Conference

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First round

  • (1) Cleveland defeats (8) Detroit 4-0
    • Wow how Detroit fell. This Allen Iverson trade was a huge mistake. Cleveland is at the top of their game and will run Detroit out of the building. I could see Detroit winning a game, 2 if they're lucky, but I'm predicting a clean sweep here.
  • (2) Boston defeats (7) Chicago 4-1
    • Chicago has become a pretty competent team, but they're no match for even a Kevin Garnett-less Celtics team. They have enough firepower to pull out a victory, but anything more than that is a pipe dream.
  • (3) Orlando defeats (6) Philadelphia 4-0
    • Sure, this is a 3-6 seed series, but Orlando is so much better than Philadelphia. I just don't think this is even a contest.
  • (4) Atlanta defeats (5) Miami 4-3
    • This is probably the only compelling match-up in the Eastern Conference's first round. Actually, I think it will be a very compelling match-up. Atlanta is a much better overall team, and will also defend their home court with their lives, but Dwyane Wade will make things interesting and could pull out the victory for the Heat. I don't see it happening, although I wouldn't be too surprised if it did.

Semi-finals

  • (1) Cleveland defeats (4) Atlanta 4-1
    • Atlanta is a pretty solid team, but Cleveland is going to run circles around them. LeBron James steps it up for the playoffs, and he will power this team to a near-sweep of the Hawks.

(2) Boston defeats (3) Orlando 4-3

    • This is going to be a very tough, well-fought match-up. Even though Boston may be missing Garnett at this point, they still have just enough strength, size, and tenacity to make it past Orlando. Orlando will shoot their way to a few victories, and Dwight Howard is always a major X-factor, but Boston is a powerful team. Boston may also have Garnett back by late in this series.

Finals

  • (2) Boston defeats (1) Cleveland 4-2
    • This may be a controversial pick, but more than likely, Boston will have Kevin Garnett back by this time, fully healthy and ready to play. This will make Boston complete, and I don't think that the Cavaliers can compete with a fully-healthy, motivated Boston team that will fight to retain their title. LeBron James will make things interesting, but I just don't think his supporting cast is strong enough yet. If Boston is still missing Garnett though, it will be a different story.

Western Conference

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First round

  • (1) L.A. Lakers defeat (8) Utah Jazz 4-2
    • To be fair, the Jazz would have been much higher if they wouldn't have been so injury-plagued. The injuries hurt them early in the year and when everybody returned healthy, they never rediscovered their chemistry. I think they will be locked in and ready to go for the playoffs, and will pull out a couple on their dominant home court, but the Lakers are too strong for them.
  • (7) New Orleans defeats (2) Denver 4-3
    • New Orleans lacks depth, and Denver has proven to be remarkably resilient and tough with Chauncey Billups and an emerging supporting cast, but I think the Hornets are the better team, despite what the seeding says. Chris Paul will make things difficult for them. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Denver won this one either.
  • (3) San Antonio defeats (6) Dallas 4-2
    • Even though San Antonio will be missing Manu Ginobili, Dallas isn't that good. Aside from Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas doesn't have enough weapons to compete with San Antonio's veteran, playoff-tested roster and brilliantly-executed, tough offense.
  • (5) Houston defeats (4) Portland 4-3
    • This will be another very engaging match-up, but I think Houston is coming together at the right time and will be able to pull out 1 victory on Portland's tough home court. Shutting down Tracy McGracy for the season was the right thing to do, and will finally push Houston out of the first round. Their tough defense will overcome Portland's young, green roster. However, Portland has an incredible cast of young players and a budding superstar in Brandon Roy, as well as one of the toughest home courts in the league, so I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to pull out the victory either.

Semi-finals

  • (1) L.A. Lakers defeat (7) New Orleans 4-0
    • I think that New Orleans will give the Lakers less fits than the Jazz will. They're an injury-hobbled team with a short bench, and the Lakers are going to slice and dice them no issues.
  • (3) San Antonio defeats (5) Houston 4-3
    • Oh what an interesting match-up this will be. The Texas rivalries in this league are epic and are going to set things up very well for the playoffs. Even without Manu, San Antonio has enough of a strong, young supporting cast and playoff experience to overcome Houston's lingering chemistry issues. This is going to be a very tough, physical series, as both teams are among the toughest and dirtiest in the league. If the Spurs had Manu then this would be an easy San Antonio victory, but without Ginobili, things could get very interesting and Houston's toughness might win out. But it probably won't.

Finals

  • (1) L.A. Lakers defeat (3) San Antonio 4-2
    • The Lakers are going to have an easy time in these playoffs I think. Well, relatively easy. I may be overestimating their dominance (or underestimating the other teams) but the Lakers are undoubtedly the best team in the West, and they'll have no trouble rolling over the Spurs just like all of the other teams. Without Ginobili, the Spurs don't stand a chance, and unlike previous years, they're more limping into the playoffs rather than soaring into them. However, their playoff experience will get them far, like always.

Championship

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  • L.A. Lakers defeat Boston Celtics 4-3
    • In a rematch of last year's Finals, the Lakers I believe will come out on top. My prediction from the beginning of the season has not changed, and if Garnett manages to get back and healthy, then the Celtics will be nearly as scary as they were last year. However, a slight drop-off in their production, a tougher playoff trip, and an improved Lakers team, complete with Andrew Bynum, I think will be enough to bring the Lakers over the top this time in what will prove to be a remarkable series, regardless of if the Celtics or Cavaliers make it out the East. The Lakers are a well-oiled machine with a tougher defense than they had last season, a veteran coach, an experienced roster, and improved focus. If a Kobe-LeBron match-up occurs instead, I think Kobe will come out on top anyway, so either way, I proclaim the Lakers as my 2009 NBA Champion.
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