Template:Opinion polling for the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election
Newsom recall
[edit]- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Yes on recall | No on recall | Undecided | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | September 6–13, 2021 | September 14, 2021 | 41.8% | 56.3% | 1.9% | No on recall +14.5 |
| FiveThirtyEight | August 27 – September 14, 2021 | September 14, 2021 | 41.5% | 57.3% | 1.2% | No on recall +15.8 |
| Average | 41.7% | 56.8% | 1.5% | No on recall +15.1 | ||
| Result | 38.12% | 61.88% | – | No on recall +23.76 | ||
- Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Yes on recall |
No on recall |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 CA gubernatorial election | September 14, 2021 | 12,892,578 | – | 38.12% | 61.88% | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 11–13, 2021 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 53% | 2% |
| Momentive | August 31 – September 13, 2021 | 3,985 (LV) | ± 1.6% | 41% | 55% | 4% |
| Emerson College | September 10–11, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 60% | 1% |
| Data for Progress (D) | September 2–10, 2021 | 2,464 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 43% | 57% | – |
| SurveyUSA | September 7–8, 2021 | 930 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 54% | 5% |
| Suffolk University | September 6–7, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 58% | 1% |
| Berkeley IGS | August 30 – September 6, 2021 | 7,917 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 38% | 60% | 1% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 2–4, 2021 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 53% | 4% |
| YouGov | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,618 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 57% | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 26–29, 2021 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 52% | 4% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | August 20–29, 2021 | 1,080 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 39% | 58% | 3% |
| SurveyUSA | August 26–28, 2021 | 816 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| Gravis Marketing | August 25–27, 2021 | 729 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Targoz Market Research | August 23–25, 2021 | 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 52% | 6% |
| Change Research (D) | August 22–25, 2021 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 57% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–22, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 48% | 11%[b] |
| 964 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 51% | 7% | ||
| YouGov | August 6–12, 2021 | 1,585 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 54% | – |
| 1,534 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 52% | – | ||
| SurveyUSA | August 2–4, 2021 | 613 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Emerson College | July 30 – August 1, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Core Decision Analytics | July 27–29, 2021 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 52% | 7% |
| ~728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 51% | 5% | ||
| Berkeley IGS | July 18–24, 2021 | 5,795 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 36% | 51% | 13% |
| 3,266 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 50% | 3% | ||
| Emerson College | July 19–20, 2021 | 1,085 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Change Research (D) | June 11–16, 2021 | 1,085 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 54% | 6% |
| Moore Information Group (R)[A] | June 1–3, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 50% | 6% |
| 682 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% | ||
| Tulchin Research (D) | May 21–30, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 37% | 50% | 13% |
| 1,168 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 38% | 52% | 9% | ||
| Public Policy Institute of California | May 9–18, 2021 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 57% | 3% |
| Berkeley IGS | April 29 – May 5, 2021 | 10,289 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 36% | 49% | 15% |
| 7,943 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 42% | 50% | 8% | ||
| SurveyUSA | April 30 – May 2, 2021 | 642 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 36% | 47% | 17% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[B] | April 15–19, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | March 14–23, 2021 | 1,174 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 40% | 56% | 5% |
| Probolsky Research (R) | March 16–19, 2021 | 900 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| 900 (LV)[c] | ± 3.3% | 35% | 53% | 13% | ||
| Emerson College | March 12–14, 2021 | 1,045 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 42% | 20%[d] |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[C] | February 12–14, 2021 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Berkeley IGS | January 23–29, 2021 | 10,357 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 36% | 45% | 20% |
| 7,980 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 36% | 49% | 15% | ||
| Remington Research (R)[D] | March 17–18, 2019 | 1,303 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 31% | 52% | 17% |
Replacement candidates
[edit]The table below contains all candidates who had polled at or above 2% since the filing deadline for the recall, had raised at least $100,000 (excluding loans and including at least $5,000 in the most recent filing period), were a current or former elected official, or were otherwise considered notable in their own right. The graphical summary includes all candidates who met at least one of those criteria and had appeared in at least four separate publicly released polls.
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Elder (R) | Paffrath (D) | Faulconer (R) | Cox (R) | Kiley (R) | Jenner (R) | Other/Undecided [e] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | August 20 – Sep 13, 2021 | Sep 13, 2021 | 32.4% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 46.1% | Elder +24.6 |
| FiveThirtyEight | July 18 – Sep 13, 2021 | Sep 13, 2021 | 29.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 50.6% | Elder +23.6 |
| Average | 31.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 48.4% | Elder +24.1 | ||
| Result | 48.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 25.4% | Elder +38.8 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
(I) Angelyne
|
(D) Holly Baade
|
(R) John Cox
|
(D) John Drake
|
(R) Larry Elder
|
(R) Kevin Faulconer
|
(R) Ted Gaines
|
(L) Jeff Hewitt
|
(R) Caitlyn Jenner
|
(G) Dan Kapelovitz
|
(R) Kevin Kiley
|
(D) Patrick Kilpatrick
|
(D) Jacqueline McGowan
|
(R) Doug Ose
|
(D) Kevin Paffrath
|
(D) Armando Perez-Serrato
|
(D) Brandon Ross
|
(D) Joel Ventresca
|
(D) Daniel Watts
|
Other
|
Undecided
|
None
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 CA gubernatorial election | Sep 14, 2021 | 7,361,568 | – | 0.5% | 1.3% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 48.4% | 8.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 9.6% | 1.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.6% | – | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | Sep 11–13, 2021 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | – | 3% | 1% | 41% | 4% | – | – | 1% | – | 4% | – | 4% | – | 10% | – | 1% | – | – | 9% | 23% | – |
| Emerson College | Sep 10–11, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | – | 3% | 6% | 30% | 4% | – | – | 2% | – | 4% | – | 3% | 1% | 6% | – | – | – | – | 3% | 6% | 34% |
| Data for Progress (D) | Sep 2–10, 2021 | 2,557 (LV) | ± 2.0% | – | 2% | 7% | – | 22% | 4% | – | – | 1% | – | 3% | – | 4% | – | 6% | – | 5% | – | 3% | 5% | 7% | 29% |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 7–8, 2021 | 597 (LV) | ± 5.5% | – | 4% | 8% | 4% | 29% | 6% | – | – | 2% | – | 3% | 2% | 4% | – | 9% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 13% | – |
| Suffolk University | Sep 6–7, 2021 | 233 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 39% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | – | 2% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 1% | – | – | 7% | – |
| Berkeley IGS | Aug 30 – Sep 6, 2021 | 4,707 (LV) | ± 2.6% | – | 1% | 4% | 1% | 38% | 8% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | – | 10% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 8% | 16% | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | Sep 2–4, 2021 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | – | 3% | – | 32% | 4% | – | – | 1% | – | 4% | – | 3% | – | 13% | – | – | – | – | 11% | 29% | – |
| YouGov | Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2021 | 1,618 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4%[f] | – | 39% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | Aug 26–29, 2021 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | – | 4% | – | 29% | 4% | – | – | 1% | – | – | – | – | 0% | 22% | – | – | – | – | 9% | 30% | – |
| Public Policy Institute of California | Aug 20–29, 2021 | 1,080 (LV) | ± 4.5% | – | – | 3% | – | 26% | 5% | – | – | 1% | – | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14% | 24% | 25% |
| SurveyUSA | Aug 26–28, 2021 | 515 (LV) | ± 5.2% | – | 5% | 6% | 2% | 27% | 5% | – | – | 2% | – | 5% | – | 5% | – | 6% | 3% | 5% | 2% | – | 12% | 14% | – |
| Gravis Marketing | Aug 25–27, 2021 | 729 (LV) | ± 3.6% | – | – | 4% | – | 22% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | – | – | – | 18% | – | – | – | – | 16% | 21% | – |
| Targoz Market Research | Aug 23–25, 2021 | 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 13% | – | 12% | 7% | – | – | 3% | – | 3% | – | – | 2% | 13% | – | – | – | – | 4% | 20% | 23% |
| Change Research (D) | Aug 22–25, 2021 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | 2% | 2% | – | 27% | 3% | – | – | 1% | – | 4% | – | 5% | 1% | 6% | – | 3% | – | 3% | 7% | 15% | 22% |
| YouGov | Aug 6–12, 2021 | 1,534 (LV) | ± 3.8% | – | – | 3% | – | 23% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | – | 3% | – | – | 2% | 13% | – | – | – | – | 5% | 25% | 20% |
| SurveyUSA | Aug 2–4, 2021 | 545 (LV) | ± 5.4% | – | – | 10% | – | 23% | 5% | – | – | 4% | – | 3% | – | – | 4% | 27% | – | – | – | – | 5% | 20% | – |
| Emerson College | Jul 30 – Aug 1, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | – | 7% | – | 23% | 4% | – | – | 7% | – | 5% | – | – | 0% | 1% | – | – | – | – | 14% | 40% | – |
| Core Decision Analytics | Jul 27–29, 2021 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 9%[g] | 34% | 22% |
| ~728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 8%[h] | 32% | 22% | ||
| Berkeley IGS | Jul 18–24, 2021 | 5,795 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 1% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 12% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 5% | – | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1%[i] | 44% | – |
| 3,266 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 0% | 1% | 10% | 1% | 18% | 10% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1%[j] | 40% | – | ||
| Emerson College | Jul 19–20, 2021 | 1,085 (RV) | ± 2.9% | – | – | 6% | – | 16% | 6% | – | – | 4% | – | 4% | – | – | 0% | 2% | – | – | – | – | 8% | 53% | – |
| Moore Information Group (R)[A] | Jun 1–3, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | – | – | 22% | – | – | 11% | – | – | 6% | – | – | – | – | 4% | – | – | – | – | – | 18% | 39% | – |
| 682 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 24% | – | – | 12% | – | – | 6% | – | – | – | – | 4% | – | – | – | – | – | 17% | 37% | – | ||
| SurveyUSA | Apr 30 – May 2, 2021 | 642 (RV) | ± 5.3% | – | – | 9% | – | – | 3% | – | – | 5% | – | – | – | – | 2% | – | – | – | – | – | 17%[k] | 26% | 38% |
Hypothetical polling
- Full-field ballot including potential Democratic candidates
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cox (R) |
Kevin de León (D) |
Kevin Faulconer (R) |
Caitlyn Jenner (R) |
Doug Ose (R) |
Tom Steyer (D) |
Antonio Villaraigosa (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information Group (R)[A] | Jun 1–3, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 16% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 38% |
| 682 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 37% |
- Antonio Villaraigosa vs. Kevin Faulconer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Antonio Villaraigosa (D) |
Kevin Faulconer (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R)[C] | Feb 12–14, 2021 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 28% | 31% | 41% |
Notes
[edit]General polling notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Includes "won't vote" with 3%
- ^ Weighted by vote propensity
- ^ Includes "would not vote" with 6%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Stoner, Loebs, Trimino, and Moore with 1%; Lozano, Collins, Newman, Lodge, Richter, Martinez, Gallucci, Symmon, Furin, Le Roux, Stephens, Hillberg, Kaul, Hanink, Papagan, Marciniak, Lucey, Killens, Wildstar, Singh, Zacky, Bramante, and Mercuri with 0%
- ^ Bramante, Gallucci, Lodge, Lozano, Lucey, Marciniak, Stoner, Trimino, and Wildstar with 1%; Collins, Furin, Hanink, Hillberg, Kaul, Killens, Le Roux, Loebs, Martinez, Mercuri, Moore, Newman, Papagan, Richter, Singh, Stephens, Symmon, and Zacky with 0%
- ^ Bramante, Lodge, Lozano, Lucey, Marciniak, Stoner, Trimino, and Wildstar with 1%; Collins, Furin, Gallucci, Hanink, Hillberg, Kaul, Killens, Le Roux, Loebs, Martinez, Mercuri, Moore, Newman, Papagan, Richter, Singh, Stephens, Symmon, and Zacky with 0%
- ^ Singh with 1%; Collins, Gallucci, Hanink, Loebs, Mercuri, Moore, Lodge, Lozano, Lucey, Bramante, Leroux, Martinez, Stoner, Newman, Richter, Stephens, Trimino, Zacky, Killens, and Wildstar with 0%
- ^ Singh with 1%; Gallucci, Collins, Lodge, Mercuri, Hanink, Moore, Richter, Killens, Leroux, Loebs, Martinez, and Trimino with 0%
- ^ Grenell with 5%; Cernovich, Mercuri, Moorlach, and Williams with 3%
Polling sponsor notes
[edit]
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