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Major modern influenza pandemics[1][2]
Name Date World pop. Subtype Reproduction number[3] Infected (est.) Deaths worldwide Case fatality rate Pandemic severity
Spanish flu[4] 1918–20 1.80 billion H1N1 1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27) 33% (500 million)[5] or >56% (>1 billion)[6] 17[7]–100[8][9] million 2–3%,[6] or ~4%, or ~10%[10] 5
Asian flu 1957–58 2.90 billion H2N2 1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70) >17% (>500 million)[6] 1–4 million[6] <0.2%[6] 2
Hong Kong flu 1968–69 3.53 billion H3N2 1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85) >14% (>500 million)[6] 1–4 million[6] <0.2%[6][11] 2
1977 Russian flu 1977–79 4.21 billion H1N1 ? ? 0.7 million[12] ? ?
2009 swine flu pandemic[13][14] 2009–10 6.85 billion H1N1/09 1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70) 11–21% (0.7–1.4 billion)[15] 151,700–575,400[16] 0.01%[17][18] 1
Typical seasonal flu[t 1] Every year 7.75 billion A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ... 1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37) 5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[19]
3–11% or 5–20%[20][21] (240 million – 1.6 billion) 		290,000–650,000/year[22] <0.1%[23] 1
Notes
  1. ^ Not pandemic, but included for comparison purposes.


Notes[edit]

  • 1889–90 flu, People infected (est.) number: please review source. There are two diverging statements: 20–60% vs 60% (45–70%). Which one is more relevant?
  • For the 1918 flu, people infected numbers (500 million), mortality rate (2~3%) contradict the deaths worldwide "20–100 million" statements. Review needed. Lead: Johnson NPAS, Mueller (2002). "Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918–1920 Spanish Influenza Pandemic".
  • Kilbourne ED (January 2006). "Influenza pandemics of the 20th century". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12 (1). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: 9–14. doi:10.3201/eid1201.051254. PMC 3291411. PMID 16494710. Considers 1918, 1957, 1968 as pandemics; 1947 (H1N1), 1976 (H1N1), 1977 (H1N1) as pseudopandemics.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Hilleman MR (August 2002). "Realities and enigmas of human viral influenza: pathogenesis, epidemiology and control". Vaccine. 20 (25–26): 3068–87. doi:10.1016/S0264-410X(02)00254-2. PMID 12163258.
  2. ^ Potter CW (October 2001). "A history of influenza". Journal of Applied Microbiology. 91 (4): 572–9. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01492.x. PMID 11576290. S2CID 26392163.
  3. ^ Biggerstaff M, Cauchemez S, Reed C, Gambhir M, Finelli L (September 2014). "Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature". BMC Infectious Diseases. 14 (1): 480. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480. PMC 4169819. PMID 25186370.
  4. ^ Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (December 2004). "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza". Nature. 432 (7019): 904–6. Bibcode:2004Natur.432..904M. doi:10.1038/nature03063. PMC 7095078. PMID 15602562.
  5. ^ Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (January 2006). "1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12 (1): 15–22. doi:10.3201/eid1201.050979. PMC 3291398. PMID 16494711.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h "Report of the Review Committee on the Functioning of the International Health Regulations (2005) in relation to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009" (PDF). 2011-05-05. p. 37. Archived (PDF) from the original on 14 May 2015. Retrieved 1 March 2015.
  7. ^ Spreeuwenberg P, Kroneman M, Paget J (December 2018). "Reassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic". American Journal of Epidemiology. 187 (12): 2561–2567. doi:10.1093/aje/kwy191. PMC 7314216. PMID 30202996.
  8. ^ Morens DM, Fauci AS (April 2007). "The 1918 influenza pandemic: insights for the 21st century". The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 195 (7): 1018–28. doi:10.1086/511989. PMID 17330793.
  9. ^ Johnson NP, Mueller J (2002). "Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic". Bulletin of the History of Medicine. 76 (1): 105–15. doi:10.1353/bhm.2002.0022. PMID 11875246. S2CID 22974230.
  10. ^ Lin II RG, Karlamangla S (March 6, 2020). "Why the coronavirus outbreak isn't likely to be a repeat of the 1918 Spanish flu". Los Angeles Times.
  11. ^ Schwarzmann SW, Adler JL, Sullivan RJ, Marine WM (June 1971). "Bacterial pneumonia during the Hong Kong influenza epidemic of 1968-1969". Archives of Internal Medicine. 127 (6): 1037–41. doi:10.1001/archinte.1971.00310180053006. PMID 5578560.
  12. ^ Michaelis M, Doerr HW, Cinatl J (August 2009). "Novel swine-origin influenza A virus in humans: another pandemic knocking at the door". Medical Microbiology and Immunology. 198 (3): 175–83. doi:10.1007/s00430-009-0118-5. PMID 19543913. S2CID 20496301.
  13. ^ Donaldson LJ, Rutter PD, Ellis BM, Greaves FE, Mytton OT, Pebody RG, Yardley IE (December 2009). "Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study". BMJ. 339: b5213. doi:10.1136/bmj.b5213. PMC 2791802. PMID 20007665.
  14. ^ "First Global Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Mortality Released by CDC-Led Collaboration". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 25 June 2012. Retrieved 7 July 2012.
  15. ^ Kelly H, Peck HA, Laurie KL, Wu P, Nishiura H, Cowling BJ (2011-08-05). "The age-specific cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 was similar in various countries prior to vaccination". PLOS ONE. 6 (8): e21828. Bibcode:2011PLoSO...621828K. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021828. PMC 3151238. PMID 21850217.
  16. ^ Dawood FS, Iuliano AD, Reed C, Meltzer MI, Shay DK, Cheng PY, Bandaranayake D, Breiman RF, Brooks WA, Buchy P, Feikin DR, Fowler KB, Gordon A, Hien NT, Horby P, Huang QS, Katz MA, Krishnan A, Lal R, Montgomery JM, Mølbak K, Pebody R, Presanis AM, Razuri H, Steens A, Tinoco YO, Wallinga J, Yu H, Vong S, Bresee J, Widdowson MA (September 2012). "Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study". The Lancet. Infectious Diseases. 12 (9): 687–95. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4. PMID 22738893.
  17. ^ Riley S, Kwok KO, Wu KM, Ning DY, Cowling BJ, Wu JT, Ho LM, Tsang T, Lo SV, Chu DK, Ma ES, Peiris JS (June 2011). "Epidemiological characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza based on paired sera from a longitudinal community cohort study". PLOS Medicine. 8 (6): e1000442. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000442. PMC 3119689. PMID 21713000.
  18. ^ Wong JY, Kelly H, Ip DK, Wu JT, Leung GM, Cowling BJ (November 2013). "Case fatality risk of influenza A (H1N1pdm09): a systematic review". Epidemiology. 24 (6): 830–41. doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3182a67448. PMC 3809029. PMID 24045719.
  19. ^ "WHO Europe – Influenza". World Health Organization (WHO). June 2009. Archived from the original on 17 June 2009. Retrieved 12 June 2009.
  20. ^ "Key Facts About Influenza (Flu)". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2019-10-28. Retrieved 2020-03-10.
  21. ^ Tokars JI, Olsen SJ, Reed C (May 2018). "Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 66 (10): 1511–1518. doi:10.1093/cid/cix1060. PMC 5934309. PMID 29206909.
  22. ^ "Influenza: Fact sheet". World Health Organization (WHO). 6 November 2018. Archived from the original on 17 December 2019. Retrieved 25 January 2020.
  23. ^ "H1N1 fatality rates comparable to seasonal flu". The Malaysian Insider. Washington, D.C., US. Reuters. 17 September 2009. Archived from the original on 20 October 2009. Retrieved 26 September 2009.
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