Talk:Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election/Archives/2012/April
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Majority not the same as difference
Shouldn't the majority figures on these tables actually be 'lead in comparison to remainder of the House' figures? To be a majority party you need to have 50%(+1) of the seats therefore a majority figure should be however many seats of 325 the predicted lead party has.
The table as current has figures such as this:
| Date(s) Conducted |
Polling Organisation/Client | Sample Size | Conservative | Labour | Liberal Democrats | Other | % Lead[1] | Predicted Majority[2] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb - 1 Mar |
YouGov/The Sun | 2,126 | 34% (227) | 43% (380) | 11% (19) | 12% (6) | 9% | 110 |
However Labour would only have a majority of 55 because they need to have more than 325 members in the House to do this. In Canada (which has the same Westminister system) the ruling party the Conservative Party of Canada have 143 of 308 seats, this means they are a minority government despite the fact they have more seats than anybody else this does not mean they have a majority.
The tables should therefore be altered to read (differently)***
- Deleted table which was not aligning with the rest of the page properly. As I cannot contact the user who posted this (it appears to be unsigned) I will ask here that, when revisiting the page, please amend your table to fit the rest of this page. OldSquiffyBat (talk) 12:38, 4 April 2012 (UTC)
- ^ Percentage lead held by the Conservatives or Labour over the second placed of the two parties, unless otherwise stated.
- ^ Based on an 650-seat Parliament, using the First Past The Post (FPTP) system