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Talk:Monty Hall problem/Sources

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Morgan et al

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Morgan, J. P., Chaganty, N. R., Dahiya, R. C., & Doviak, M. J. (1991). "Let's make a deal: The player's dilemma," American Statistician 45: 284-287.

Problem formulation

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In what Morgan refer to as the vos Savant scenario the host always reveals a goat. Although not explicitly stated the assumption implicit in the calculations (and confirmed by a later remark) is that the car is initially placed uniformly at random

Points made

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  • The question is asked after Monty has opened a door to reveal a goat.
  • The solutions of vos Savant and Mosteller are false.
  • In general we cannot answer the question 'What is the probability of winning if I switch given that I have been shown a goat behind door 3. This probability can be expressed as 1/(1+q) where q is the probability that the host opens door 3 when the car is behind door 1.
  • The problem asked (by Whitaker) has to be solved by calculating conditional probabilities.

vos Savant

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Selvin

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Gillman

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Rosenthal

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Monty Hall, Monty Fall, Monty Crawl

Problem statement

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A car is equally likely to be behind any one of three doors. You select one of the three doors (say, Door #1). The host then reveals one non-selected door (say, Door #3) which does not contain the car. At this point, you choose whether to stick with your original choice (i.e. Door #1), or switch to the remaining door (i.e. Door #2). What are the probabilities that you will win the car if you stick, versus if you switch?

Also many problem variants

Points made

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  • Unconditional solution is, 'correct, but I consider it "shaky" because it fails for slight variants of the problem'.

Eisenhauer

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The Monty Hall Matrix

  • 'Without making some assumptions, at least implicitly, about the host's behaviour, even the basic three-door problem would be insoluble'.
  • If Monty randomly reveals a goat, the probability of the car being behind door 1 is independent of the door opened by the host
  • The 'no news' argument relies at best on an unstated assumption (They do not say what this is, presumably that the host chooses a random goat door)
  • Vos Savant's answer was unconvincing and misleading.

Grinstead and Snell

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Lucas, Rosenhouse, and Schepler

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The Monty Hall Problem, Reconsidered

Falk

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Selvin

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Selvin has special status amongst sources as being the originator of the problem in a letter to the American Statistician and the originator of the name 'Monty Hall problem' in a second letter to the same journal.

Problem statement

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Selvin originally states the problem in the form of a dialogue.


Points made

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  • In his original letter Selvin provides a clearly unconditional solution, in that the two possible doors that the host might open are considired together.
  • In his second letter Selvin makes clear that the host chooses between goat doors at random.
  • In his second letter Selvin gives an alternative conditional solution to show that his original answer was correct.
  • Selvin does not say that the unconditional solution is wrong or incomplete.