Talk:Casualties of the Tigray war

... The total number of Ethiopian soldiers including Somali land , militia, shabiya soldier and otherin tigray war was 400,000

The 52,000 death toll

Are we supposed to just trust a random source that claims over 52,000 people dead? I think it’s just ridiculous Ridax2020 (talk) 11:03, 3 February 2021 (UTC)

I am well aware the opposition is what said the death toll, but it’s still untrustable. It’s common sense. How did they calculate this much deaths? Ridax2020 (talk) 11:04, 3 February 2021 (UTC)

No, we don't "just trust a random source". We attribute and NPOV the sources. Readers infer what they wish based on their judgment of the sources. In terms of NPOV, giving opposition political parties a chance to state their estimate seems reasonable. This has been re-cited by mainstream media - we could add a mainstream media report to show that the mainstream media thought the claim was worth repeating.

I think what you're really questioning is the credibility of the estimate. Based on the current state of the table and the corresponding Wikipedia articles, we have:

• Mai Kadra 600 to 1100 executed [by disputed perpetrators] out of 4,500 total pop;
• Zalambessa 59 executed out of 10,500 total pop;
• Hitsats 300 executed [by disputed party] out of [not listed, let us assume 20,000];
• Idaga Hamus 104–174 out of 8,500;
• Adigrat 20–27 out of 76,000;
• Hawzen 78 out of 5,600;
• Irob 52 out of 25,500;
• Addi Qoylo 30 out of 900 [one of 10 villages, total 9000];
• Aksum 750 out of 67,000;

In GNU Octave (which is free-licensed software; you can install it safely with you safely in control over the software), plain arithmetic and elementary statistics can be done by copying/pasting:

  executed_min = [600 59 300 104 20 78 52 30 750]
  executed_max = [1100 59 300 174 27 78 52 30 750]
  pop = [4500 10500 20000 8500 76000 5600 25500 900 67000]
  statistics(executed_min./pop)
  statistics(executed_max./pop)

The third value on each line output by statistics is the median.

This gives median estimates of the fraction of people executed as 1.22% minimum, 1.39% maximum. If we assume that similar killing took place in all the towns for which we do not have data, then for a total Tigrayan population of 6,000,000, this gives 73,000 to 83,400 people executed.

This estimate doesn't count the civilians killed in crossfire from military battles (those deaths, in principle, do not count as war crimes) and by UAE drones.

So 52,000 sounds credible (although at least part of the Mai Kadra massacre was done by Tigrayans, unless we are completely paranoid about the EHRC, EHRCO and Amnesty International; so the parties' statement is misleading by not acknowledging that).

The means (6th output of statistics) are higher: min 2.5%, max 3.8%. These are more sensitive to individual wrong data (outliers), but if accurate, would give better estimates for multiplying by the full population of 6,000,000. So a factor of two to three higher - 150,000 to 200,000 civilians executed so far - would be credible.

We don't know how the number was calculated, but making lists of names and adding up the numbers is a reasonable hypothesis. That's the most accurate method, provided that it's complete and the information is properly verified. Boud (talk) 15:52, 3 February 2021 (UTC)

Just to clarify: my point about credibility, attribution and NPOV here refers to this page, not to the infobox of Tigray War. People debating over there may wish to read the discussion here, but decision-making on what to put or not put in the infobox should be made over there. Boud (talk) 16:26, 3 February 2021 (UTC)

NPOV dispute, but no dispute so far...

There is a claim of an NPOV dispute for this article. However, currently there is no dispute, and no list of the NPOV concerns. Please list the NPOV concerns and explain what the problem is in editing to fix these concerns. Boud (talk) 14:50, 9 November 2021 (UTC)

Tag removed because there is no dispute. Boud (talk) 22:40, 25 November 2021 (UTC)

Original research claims

What are the claims of original research in this article? Without the claim being clarified after a reasonable delay, the 'OR' tag should be removed. Boud (talk) 00:53, 11 November 2021 (UTC)

Tag removed due to a complete lack of claims in 14 days. Boud (talk) 22:41, 25 November 2021 (UTC)

Removed two sentences

@Boud: Re your edit two days ago, I have removed your paragraph:

On 30 April 2021, the Atlas of the Humanitarian Situation casualty recording project by Ghent University researchers had documented 7,819 civilian deaths over the course of the war. In October 2021, Rachel Ibreck and Alex de Waal referred to the estimate of 230 individual massacre sites of "targeted killing of Tigrayan men and boys" as recorded in the Atlas.

Reason:

1. The Atlas document is a non-reliable source because it is self-published on ResearchGate.
2. I am unable to verify the number 7,819 even though I have downloaded multiple versions of the Atlas and checked each one.
3. The second sentence is an attempt to elevate the source from not-reliable towards reliable source status, when even that mention was minor. (UNDUE)

At some point, the Atlas will get published. In the meantime, it is a fluid paper that has been updated several times and re-uploaded. It is not an appropriate source to use in Wikipedia. Platonk (talk) 08:10, 30 November 2021 (UTC)

Just a warning that the user who made the above comment is indefinitely blocked as a WP:SOCKPUPPET. Boud (talk) 14:24, 20 December 2024 (UTC)

References

"Sheraro massacre" listed at Redirects for discussion

An editor has identified a potential problem with the redirect Sheraro massacre and has thus listed it at redirects for discussion. The discussion will occur at Wikipedia:Redirects for discussion/Log/2021 December 23#Sheraro massacre until a consensus is reached, and readers of this page are welcome to contribute to the discussion. Platonk (talk) 18:40, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

TODO: update: 3-7% extermination rather than 10%

This is a TODO note that per an updated overview by Jan Nyssen – A Chronicle of the Tigray Tragedy, Zenodo: 12591885 – it looks like the genocide of the Tigrayans was about 3–7% rather than 10%. This is still absolutely appalling, and still remains a severely underdocumented genocide (and is unlikely to gain consensus as a genocide any time soon). Boud (talk) 14:23, 20 December 2024 (UTC)