Talk:2024 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) presidential election

Shouldn't it be presidential election?

The position is called president, so shouldn't this be called presidential, not leadership, election? 49.3.72.79 (talk) 14:12, 30 December 2023 (UTC)

I have changed it. Maurnxiao (talk) 21:51, 14 August 2024 (UTC)

Colors

In the event that Noda, Takaichi, Kono or Suga announced their candidacies, their colors should follow their previous colours listed in the previous election articles. Meaning Noda is purple, Takaichi is green and Suga/Kono are a gold-like color. Should Suga/Kono both run, then we can discuss their colors. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 06:31, 20 August 2024 (UTC)

• Follow-up Look at the 2016 and 2020 (even the 2024) U.S. Democratic and Republican primaries, the colors of certain candidates remained consistent throughout the years (Bernie [green], Biden [blue]). Look at the 2024 Iranian presidential election where the colors of reformist candidates remained the same color (if not same shade; look are article's history). Hence as I mentioned before (before this dispute) Takaichi and Kono's color should remain similar to there previous colors in other years. Also to be fair, the argument of keeping the colors consistent with the polling chart used is a bit weak since the polling chart is outdated/no longer relevant since Kishida dropped out (plus I don't think it's a coincidence that Noda's color in this chart is purple just like how her color was purple in 2021). I mean, Ishiba's color has been blue (albeit a different shade, but still blue) throughout his leadership runs like in 2020 and 2012, etc.). If anything, there should be an edit in the colors used within the chart to remain consistent with these colors OR a new polling chart with these colors should be created with any incoming new post-Kishida numbers. --TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 03:58, 21 August 2024 (UTC)

@TDKR Chicago 101: I have a proposal for the colors of the candidates. We can set them based on faction (or former faction) of each candidate like this:
Declared
  Yoshimasa Hayashi (former Kōchikai)
  Shigeru Ishiba (Suigetsukai)
  Taro Kono (Shikōkai)
  Toshimitsu Motegi (Heisei Kenkyūkai)
  Takayuki Kobayashi (former Shisuikai)
  Shinjirō Koizumi (no faction)
  Sanae Takaichi (former Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai)
  Katsunobu Katō (Heisei Kenkyūkai)
Announcement pending
  Yōko Kamikawa (former Kōchikai)
Decision pending (tentative colors)
  Ken Saito
--Faustino Sojo (talk) 14:52, 8 September 2024 (UTC)

Not a bad set, but perhaps we should wait until all the candidates have confirmed their candidacies. I think there's two others whose decisions are pending. In that case Koizumi can take the purple or coral colors since I feel him having another shade is blue while there's other colors available doesn't make sense. I'm personally a fan of Koizumi being the red color and Hayashi's color could be contingent on the other candidates declaring or not declaring their intent to run. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 05:25, 9 September 2024 (UTC)

The deadline is in September 12 so we can wait until the announcement of final candidates. Hayashi was candidate in 2012 and his color was red in the article, so i prefer red for him. For Koizumi i don't care about the color, if you like it we can use the color of Ken Saito for him. Faustino Sojo (talk) 16:05, 9 September 2024 (UTC)

Ah I see! Then yes, Hayashi would make sense to be red and we could wait for Koizumi's color. If Noda doesn't run, I think purple is a safe and neutral color. However, I noticed that there's a polling graph with the updated numbers (it excludes Suga and Kishida) and it appears the colors have been set. We could retroactively change Hayashi's color to the olive green here too, that could be an option as well so that the article is consistent with the new polling chart. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 04:26, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

The graph is not a problem because @CoaxAndBotany: can fix it, even he can fix the other graph of the hypothetical polling with the new colors (Kishida => red). Purple could be a good color for Koizumi, so i have no problem with it. Faustino Sojo (talk) 16:02, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

On second thought, i prefer Seiko Noda with the purple because she has been included in the new polls after Kishida's step down for the reelection. The color of Ken Saito for Koizumi, in my opinion, could be a good pick. Faustino Sojo (talk) 16:35, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

In the event that Noda doesn't run, then Koizumi should be purple due to it being a main color (red, orange, yellow, green, blue, purple, pink). I feel that major candidates that are polling highly should have a neutral color since there's a chance they'll make it far in the election.

If Noda does run, I wouldn't be opposed swapping Hayashi's olive green to Motegi and having Motegi's teal-ish blue be given to Koizumi as well.

However, in the event that Noda and Saito were to run, I still feel that Koizumi should stick with red since as mentioned above it's a main/neutral color and based on polling it appears he has a bigger shot at being in the top two than Hayashi. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 16:52, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

Maybe my proposal was not understood, what i propose is to choose colors by faction (or former faction) as far as possible (red => Kōchikai, green => Seiwakai, yellow => Shikōkai, etc.) and specific colors for candidates who are not part of any faction (Koizumi, Noda, Saito, etc.). I prefer not to choose colors based on the popularity of the candidates because it could create a problem for the Wikipedia reader when they want to compare performances of candidates or factions in the past elections, for example: Kishida (2021) and Koizumi (2024) share color but actually they are not the same. Faustino Sojo (talk) 17:32, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

I definitely believe in the idea of consistency and I understood the faction coloring, but the faction coloring might interfere with the consistency coloring (correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that would mean Kono wouldn't be yellow like he was in 2021).

In terms of popularity, I didn't mean it in simple terms like if a candidate is popular, it's more based on polling numbers (data, stats, etc.). That's just my opinion and obviously I could see where that could get tricky. Hence why I feel that maybe Koizumi's color could be purple (if Noda doesn't run) or Motegi's teal-ish color since Saito's coral pink might be a bit similar to Kamikawa's pink. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 17:43, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

I also wouldn't be totally opposed to just leaving the colors how they are, especially if both Noda and Saito declare their candidacies. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 17:44, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

Kono is yellow because he belongs to Shikōkai. If we leave the colors as they are now, what i would like to do is modify the colors of the hypothetical polls table so that they are consistent as far as possible with the current colors. The graph can be fixed. Faustino Sojo (talk) 18:04, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

Hey, you are right choosing purple for Koizumi, we have breaking news!. Faustino Sojo (talk) 18:21, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

Hey! Not bad! So now in this case, I'd support swapping Hayashi's color to red, Koizumi to purple and should Sato run, maybe he could be the oliva green that Hayashi currently has since I think the coral and pink are a bit similar. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 23:32, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

I've also swapped Shigeharu Aoyama's to the olive green since his former orange-brown color was a bit similar to the dark red/made it harder to distinguish. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 00:11, 11 September 2024 (UTC)

I agree with you. Perfect!. Faustino Sojo (talk) 12:01, 11 September 2024 (UTC)

Declared?

It seems like we're kind of jumping the gun on considering candidates as "declared". The only officially declared candidate right now is Kobayashi. All of the other candidates currently listed as declared have discussed running, often in very open terms, but they haven't officially declared their candidacies yet. I think we should move all of these to "decision pending" (most of them have announcements scheduled). And only move them into declared/nominated once they have officially announced. Basil the Bat Lord (talk) 02:39, 23 August 2024 (UTC)

Removing potential candidates

Proposing on removing potential candidates section as all sources date from November 2023 to December 2023. Usually on election articles like the 2020/2024 U.S. presidential election, candidates are removed after six months their sources cited were published. We could try to find more recent sources to keep this section, but I don't see the point keeping sources that were published 9-8 months ago. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 19:25, 23 August 2024 (UTC)

Hypothetical polling

@TDKR Chicago 101: I've seen that you reverted my edition. Isn't it just as hypothetical that Kishida drops out of the election as it is for Suga or any other candidate? Why is it necessary to make the article looks like an American election when it's actually about a Japanese election? All candidates are hypothetical until they gain the support of 20 MPs, so it's not right to hide the polls based on whether a candidate drops out or not. In this type of election, historically, the official candidates haven't been more than five.--Faustino Sojo (talk) 20:44, 30 August 2024 (UTC)

I'm not comparing it to the 2024 US election, I'm using the same rationale. I would've cited any other country's election, but the U.S. election came to mind since both Biden, like Kishida, dropped out/ruled out a run so late into the election cycle. It's a hypothetical poll since it was when Kishida was considered a candidate, hence a hypothetical scenario. I meant the term 'hypothetical' in reference to Kishida's presence in the polling chart/data. Now with Kishida out, the polling section should only reflect current candidates/recent data whereas data with Kishida in it should be considered outdated which is why it's better off hidden. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 20:55, 30 August 2024 (UTC)

Ok, I had to come up with a solution for this article. I hope you like it. Faustino Sojo (talk) 21:03, 30 August 2024 (UTC)

Looks like a good solution. Interesting to see how the numbers shifted for certain candidates pre and post Kishida. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 21:09, 30 August 2024 (UTC)

Infobox

I feel that we should limit the people shown on the inbox or otherwise it'll be too long and misshapen. Perhaps we should limit it to the top four/two once the election cycle goes near election day. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 03:56, 6 September 2024 (UTC)

Not sure how we would determine the top candidates though since there is no vote before election day and polls are mostly meaningless since the public does not vote. Basil the Bat Lord (talk) 13:27, 7 September 2024 (UTC)

Based on the important dates, I saw one for 9/27 that states "LDP MPs vote in the first ballot to reduce the race to two candidates". Perhaps we exclude candidates should the candidate pool get too big until we have the top two candidates. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 05:26, 9 September 2024 (UTC)

While adding Yoko to the infobox, it only allows 9 candidates to be mentioned. I don't think Shigeharu should be omitted from the infobox because he ins't considered to be a 'serious' candidate by commentators while polling indicates he has some relevancy to the race. Hence to the proposal above and just not have any candidates on the infobox until the candidate pool is minimized to the top two or to the ones that make an impact in the first round (like top four or something). TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 06:19, 11 September 2024 (UTC)

Candidate Policy Programmes

Could someone type up the policy programmes for each confirmed candidate? ValenciaThunderbolt (talk) 15:04, 6 September 2024 (UTC)

Shigeharu Aoyama status

Just curious, why is Shigeharu Aoyama considered a minor candidate? Not against it, but just curious what the justification was when in the source cited next to his entry stated that he is a declared candidate and might be a spoiler candidate for Takaichi's candidacy. He's even included in polling, with latest polling having him at a 3%, a bit more than some of the other major candidates. Just curious. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 05:37, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

I've went ahead and re-added him given how in a recent poll, he fared better than Katō, Motegi and Kono and not to mention he's a member of the upper house of the National Diet. In my book, he's a major candidate like the others. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 00:06, 11 September 2024 (UTC)

I can't provide any specific sources on this at the moment, but all of the commentators and analysts who I follow do not consider him a major candidate because he has the least support among diet members and LDP members. Polling is pretty much totally irrelevant because the public does not vote in this election. I'll take a look for some media sources on this. Basil the Bat Lord (talk) 01:57, 11 September 2024 (UTC)

I was going to say, until we have reliable sources that say he's not a serious candidate, he should remain and even then if it's the opinion of commentators/analysts I don't think that's enough merit to exclude him as well. At least with polling, it shows he does have some relevancy in the election. In recent LDP elections, I don't see a minor candidates section either. I think regardless he should remain and in the end if he doesn't end up in the top two, there isn't any harm in keeping him listed with the other declared candidates. He's a member of the National Diet not just some random Joe-shmoe who's gunning to be PM too. TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 05:03, 11 September 2024 (UTC)

Update: Aoyama did not end up filing his candidacy, he was unable to get 20 nominations. The LDP official election website shows that he is not a candidate: https://www.jimin.jp/sousai24/

Shouldn't we add him to the declined section then? --TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 12:43, 12 September 2024 (UTC)