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Talk:2022 Ontario general election/Archive 1

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Archive 1

IRG poll

The decided vote numbers for the Innovative Research Group poll are 35-32-25-7-1. It's right there in the PDF. Yet someone is acting in very bad faith and keeps changing them. Could a mod look into this? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 45.74.75.4 (talk) 00:08, 4 November 2018 (UTC)

Out of date

The polling numbers, table, graph, etc. don't seem to have been updated in almost a month. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 70.49.205.77 (talk) 21:07, 29 September 2020 (UTC)

Randy Hillier and the PPC (Ontario)?

Looks like Randy Hillier is saying he is going to run under the People's Party of Canada banner to be Premier of Ontario.[1][2][3] As far as I can tell, they aren't registered with Elections Ontario. Not sure how we should treat these new right wing upstarts like PPCO or New Blue Party of Ontario. I note we currently have New Blue in the infobox. Not sure if that is warranted or not based on their polling, their coverage in WP:RS or whatever other criteria we might use. Anyway, thought I would flag this before someone comes along and adds Hillier to the infobox.--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 00:12, 9 November 2021 (UTC)

  • At this point in time, the New Blue Party of Ontario is officially registered with Elections Ontario, whereas the People's Party of Canada is not. Furthermore, in the legislative assembly, Belinda Karahalios official party designation is the New Blue Party of Ontario, whereas Hillier is still listed as an independent. In the past I believe this has been the standard (Which is why the Green's are listed in the 2018 infobox but not the 2014 despite getting a higher vote % in 2014. Until the political party is officially registered and they have a member officially recognized in the assembly, they should not be listed in the infobox.Mr. No Funny Nickname (talk) 16:48, 9 November 2021 (UTC)
Yes, that is probably the right approach until they are officially registered. I have added a line to the timeline about Hillier running under their banner (as has been reported). I suspect that is notable enough to be included there, but it is probably wise to keep him (and PPCO) out of the infobox and the party standings table until PPCO is actually a registered party (if that happens).--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 17:27, 9 November 2021 (UTC)

FYI - There is a discussion on Hillier's talk page about this. Seems there is some unreliable sources suggesting he is actually running for "Ontario First". These seem to be contradicted by the reliable sources we have. In any event, we should keep an eye out for better sources that might clear up confusion surrounding this announcement.--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 20:27, 15 November 2021 (UTC)

This source seems to clear up any confusion about the name of the party.--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 17:44, 5 December 2021 (UTC)

Lack of graph

How come there is no graph on this page analogous with e.g. the "Pre-campaign period" section on https://wiki.riteme.site/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_44th_Canadian_federal_election ? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 70.48.51.105 (talk) 21:02, 23 May 2021 (UTC)

Jesus, even SineBot couldn't be bothered to respond to that one. Does nobody care at all around here? 70.51.248.117 (talk) 19:41, 10 June 2021 (UTC)
Response: Hello user 70.51.248.117. Not too sure what your question is. We have a graph in the opinion polling section using Wiki's built-in graph template so we can update it regularly. The Federal graph is an image built outside Wiki and then uploaded. If you have the ability to recreate that, your contribution would be welcome. Best - HamOntPoliFiend (talk) 02:56, 11 June 2021 (UTC)
I don't see any graph. Not of the sort found on the federal page the OP linked to, anyway.70.52.176.87 (talk) 21:21, 17 June 2021 (UTC)
Response: The graph is the very first thing in the "Opinion Polls" section on desktop and mobile. Again, it isn't the same as the graph on the federal page because we're using Wiki's built-in graph function. HamOntPoliFiend (talk) 00:26, 18 June 2021 (UTC)
That's a table, not a graph.70.51.251.110 (talk) 18:31, 30 June 2021 (UTC)
Whatever browser or device you're on must not be rendering it. There's definitely a graph there, in addition to the table. Cheers, Undermedia (talk) 19:58, 30 June 2021 (UTC)
Wikipedia is supposed to be broadly compatible with pretty much every browser and device.70.52.145.187 (talk) 15:11, 6 July 2021 (UTC)
It appears on Firefox, Chrome, and Safari on my desktop and laptop and on mobile for me. This is an issue with your device, not an issue with the page. The graph is there. Best, HamOntPoliFiend (talk) 19:25, 6 July 2021 (UTC)
I'd say it's an issue with both in that case. If the graph on the federal page is compatible with all devices, but the one here is not, should we not be emulating the federal page's methods to assure broader accessibility? 70.52.145.24 (talk) 21:47, 28 July 2021 (UTC)

Derek Sloan Photo needs cropping

If Derek Sloan is going to stay in the infobox, could someone crop his photo so it lines up properly? Thanks--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 23:57, 22 December 2021 (UTC)

Done! DrOwl19 (talk) 03:01, 24 December 2021 (UTC)

Ontario Party infobox name

Should the Ontario Party be listed in the infobox as "Ontario" or "Ontario Party"? I ask because there doesn't seem to be a consensus for parties named after provinces (and territories) - both the Yukon Party and Alberta Party are listed in election infoboxes with their full names, as well as the Parti Québécois (which translates to "Quebec Party"), while the Saskatchewan Party is listed as just "Saskatchewan". Thanks! --DrOwl19 (talk) 23:37, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

I think it has to be Ontario Party. If we just use "Ontario" that is going to be particularly confusing given the Ontario First Party. Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 05:15, 24 December 2021 (UTC)

I agree. DrOwl19 (talk) 17:52, 24 December 2021 (UTC)

Infobox: New Blue, Ontario and Ontario First

So it seems that the current criteria for inclusion is that a party must be registered with Elections Ontario, and have an MPP. That will likely lead to an infobox with at least 7 parties in it, as we have three new right wing start up parties that are likely to fit the criteria. New Blue and the Ontario Party already do. Ontario First will likely qualify too, assuming they finalize their registration. The purpose per MOS:INFOBOX is to summarize. In theory that should look to what WP:RS are doing. I tend to err on the more inclusive side of things, but perhaps there should be some discussion.--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 23:41, 22 December 2021 (UTC)

  • I don't know if there's an example in a Canadian election where there were more than 6 parties with incumbent seats and running candidates. Closest parallel to look to might be Next United Kingdom general election. If we used that example, infobox would looks something like this:
2022 Ontario general election
Ontario
← 2018 On or before June 2, 2022 (2022-06-02)
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 69
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 40
Liberal Steven Del Duca 7
Green Mike Schreiner 1
New Blue Jim Karahalios 1
Ontario Derek Sloan 1
Ontario First Randy Hillier 1
Incumbent Premier
Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative

Perhaps this is the direction we need to go if the number gets over 6, adding for discussion.Mr. No Funny Nickname (talk) 14:52, 23 December 2021 (UTC)

The infobox can handle 7 parties, right? Why change things? Yes, it's a lot of parties, but no need to move away from precedent, as long as we're using FPTP at least. -- Earl Andrew - talk 16:04, 23 December 2021 (UTC)
I tend to think infoboxes should be kept to six or less, unless we really think more than six parties had a significant effect on the election. Before the election, perhaps a more generous approach is appropriate. Afterwards, I think we should be giving serious thought to cutting one or more of these parties (New Blue, Ontario, Ontario First) if they do not receive a seat, receive less than 5% of the vote, and are not receiving significant coverage in WP:RS about the election. MOS:INFOBOX says the purpose of the infobox is to summarize the article. If any of these three parties are insignificant to the election, the article, and the coverage of the election, we should seriously consider excluding them from the infobox. Particularly, if the result is a sprawling seven party infobox, that gives undue focus to minor/insignificant parties. If we ultimately, decide to include all seven, I agree that we should consider the UK style infobox as proposed by Mr. No Funny Nickname, but I note that even the UK does not use that infobox for past elections. They use it for future ones, and then they just cull the small parties from the infobox after it has occured. Compare the articles for the UK 2019 and 2024/Next elections. Anyway, happy holidays all.--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 21:23, 23 December 2021 (UTC)
I think the legislative election infobox is a really good idea. --DrOwl19 (talk) 14:17, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

Is Ontario First a political party? Should they be in the infobox?

So it seems clear now that Randy Hillier intends to run as leader of the Ontario First Party. It is not clear however whether Ontario First is a party. While New Blue Party of Ontario is a registered party with Elections Ontario, Ontario First is not.[4] They have reserved the name though.[5] Not sure what if anything should be made of that distinction.--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 17:50, 5 December 2021 (UTC)

It seems to me that until they are registered as a party, they shouldn't be listed as having any seats in the legislature. This goes for the OFP article as well. At present, Hillier has announced his intention to run for premier under the "Ontario First Party" banner, but as you point out, no such party is registered with Elections Ontario as of now. It's an administrative point and will likely change in the next few months if they do officially register, but I think there's a clear way forward for us right now. James Hyett (talk) 16:55, 7 December 2021 (UTC)
This was discussed previously, the general consensus seems to be that until a political party is officially registered and they have a member officially recognized in the assembly, they should not be listed in the infobox. If the Ontario First Party gains a member in the legislative assembly (ie Hillier changes his affiliation from "Independent" to "Ontario First Party"[6], then it may be appropriate to add the party to the infobox as they have reserved the name, which is the process to becoming an officially recognized party.Mr. No Funny Nickname (talk) 14:57, 8 December 2021 (UTC)
At this moment in time, there seems to be a general consensus to remove the Ontario First Party from the infobox as, at this moment, they are neither a registered party nor do they have any recognized members in the Legislative Assembly. Once they have a recognized member sitting in the assembly, as both the Green Party[7] and New Blue Party[8] do, they they should be added to the infobox, but not before then.Mr. No Funny Nickname (talk) 15:24, 10 December 2021 (UTC)
I commented it out instead. Easier to add back when they are registered, and serves as a reminder not to do so before then.Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 16:50, 10 December 2021 (UTC)
Ontario First should be included once it's officially registered. Until then leave them off. - CountingStars500 (talk) 17:27, 17 December 2021 (UTC)

This story may be relevant to this discussion. As set out on our Ontario First Party page, apparently Ontario First wanted to go by the name "People's Party of Ontario" but were blocked by Elections Ontario because the name was too similar to the existing The Peoples Political Party. Thanks to WildComet for adding this information to that article. So it sounds as if they are continuing to negotiate with the leader of that party, Kevin Clarke in the hopes he will relinquish the name so they can register as "People's Party of Ontario" (their preferred name), not Ontario First (their backup name). If that is true, perhaps they have met all of the requirements to register, and are simply waiting to see if they can use their preferred name.--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 18:30, 14 January 2022 (UTC)

Rick Nicholls

Apparently Nicholls is perhaps second-guessing his next move for the election according to this source: [9]

"The veteran MPP, who was ousted from the Doug Ford Progressive Conservative caucus Aug. 19 for refusing to get the COVID-19 vaccine, said at that time he wouldn’t seek re-election as an independent.

Now, as a member of the Ontario Party, Nicholls said he wasn’t sure if his name would be on the ballot for next year’s provincial election.

“At this point in time, I’m still undecided. I’m just taking baby steps right now,” said Nicholls, adding he would need to consult with his wife, Dianne."

Should he be removed from the list of incumbents not seeking reelection if this is an unclear matter? CaffeinAddict (talk) 04:33, 19 January 2022 (UTC)

Found another source stating that he is still considering re-election [10]. Going to remove him from the list of incumbents not running again as it is not definitive that he is not.Mr. No Funny Nickname (talk) 14:55, 19 January 2022 (UTC)
Thanks! CaffeinAddict (talk) 16:21, 19 January 2022 (UTC)

Incumbents not running for reelection

Should MPP's who have resigned their seats who have not been replaced in a by-election be listed under this table? For example, Rod Phillips resigned as an MPP on February 2nd, so technically he is no longer an incumbent and should not be listed. However, he has not been replaced by a new member and was the last elected member for his riding. However, if he is included, should Michael Coteau also be included since he has not been replaced by a new member and is the last elected member for his riding, even though he resigned August 17, 2021.Mr. No Funny Nickname (talk) 15:50, 14 February 2022 (UTC)

Given that section of the table is named "Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee," I don't believe either former MPP you listed should be listed on the table. Their ridings will not have an incumbent at dissolution. The MPPs listed are serving the remainder of their terms, whereas the MPPs you listed have already resigned their seats. Different situations. RoyalObserver (talk) 16:04, 7 March 2022 (UTC)

A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion

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A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for speedy deletion

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Endorsements on Twice

There's an Endorsements table twice in this article. The sources look the same, at a quick glance. Which table should be removed? TwinkieToes73 (talk) 16:17, 28 March 2022 (UTC)

Good point, hadn't even noticed. I think we should remove the endorsements section that is separate from the campaign period -- I believe it should stay under the campaign period section.
Cheers Wikipageedittor099 (talk) 18:22, 28 March 2022 (UTC)

Jagmeet Singh Endorsement

Jagmeet Singh is currently listed as an endorsement for the ON NDP, although according to the Ontario NDP Wikipedia article "It is a provincial section of the federal New Democratic Party." I don't think this should count as an individual endorsement, given he is the leader of the Federal party which the provincial party is a section of. I will hold on removing him for now, pending input from other editors. RoyalObserver (talk) 10:47, 30 March 2022 (UTC)

Wrong date for the most recent Leger poll

It ran from March 25-28.

Apologies if this is the wrong way to go about having it corrected as this is my first Wikipedia comment/sign on. Doug JH (talk) 00:07, 4 April 2022 (UTC)

Mainstreet tables are publicly accessible

... here: https://old.ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Ontario-iPolitics-31-March-2022.pdf

I checked. It wasn't intended but also is part of the transition to their new system. They expect since they are public that people will reference them eventually. Doug JH (talk) 16:47, 6 April 2022 (UTC)

A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for speedy deletion

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Poll Sources

Should the listed poll sources be directly from the official polling data, or from a press release? I'm more inclined to use the official data, as it is more objective and contains little or no opinion or analysis alongside the data. — Preceding unsigned comment added by WatchfulRelic91 (talk • contribs) 19:14, 5 May 2022 (UTC)

New Blue Party abbreviation

There appears to be a discrepancy in the abbreviation for the New Blue Party of Ontario. I can't find any sources using either "NBP" or "NBO". The only abbreviating I can find is "New Blue" [11][12] -"Ghost of Dan Gurney" 17:50, 5 May 2022 (UTC)

Here's a video uploaded to Belinda Karahalios' YouTube account that was broadcasted by the Legislature. It appears the Legislative Assembly uses the acronym NB, which I would assume was approved by the party. RoyalObserver (talk) 12:31, 9 May 2022 (UTC)

Weekly Mainstreet polls on Ipolitics: To include or not to include?

Mainstreet is doing weekly polling updates at the Ipolitics website dashboard. However unless I missed them, I don't think they are doing formal releases. All the information you need is there, including sample sizes and MOE, and while the website appears to be email-gated, it's not paywalled. So the question is, should we include these? We would probably have to link to a third party (Like @ CanadianPolling on Twitter) since the mainstreet dashboard is constantly changing and not a permanent link. CASalt (talk) 17:44, 21 April 2022 (UTC)

If yall don't mind using rounded numbers (As I don't post to the first decimal) yall can link to my Twitter (@ / Canadianpolling) if necessary. I can vouch for the MS numbers being correct as posted. CFPoll (talk) 17:06, 28 April 2022 (UTC)

I agree we should find a way to include these numbers. When Mainstreet did daily updates for the last federal election people were able to make an archived screenshot each day, but the sites used then are not working with this ipolitics dashboard. So yes, linking to some agreed-upon third party might be necessary, unfortunately. Lilactree201 (talk) 20:13, 21 April 2022 (UTC)

Uh oh, so it looks like Mainstreet is going to be rounding their historical numbers from now on. If we scroll down to "Voter Intent by Gender" for tonight's numbers they are in actuality: 36.9 OPC, 30.5 OLP, and 23 ONDP. But on the top of the page (and on the historical trend-line) they appear as 37 OPC, 30 OLP, and 23 ONDP. Right now this is no big deal because we can scroll down to see the actual numbers, but the problem is that we can't reference these old numbers since the trend-line (unless I missed something) is the only way to see the historical numbers. It looks like we're going to need some way to snap-shot the actual numbers CASalt (talk) 05:12, 9 May 2022 (UTC)
Any ideas? User:Lilactree201 CASalt (talk) 05:13, 9 May 2022 (UTC)
Yeah, use https://archive.today/ to create a new web page snapshot each day. - Ahunt (talk) 11:52, 9 May 2022 (UTC)
Sadly it looks that site can't bypass the email-gate, looks like we'll just have to use the less accurate rounded numbers from now on. CASalt (talk) 04:05, 10 May 2022 (UTC)
Actually it looks like they just switched again and are no longer rounding? Yesterday's numbers still appear rounded on the trend-line, but today's don't. CASalt (talk) 04:11, 10 May 2022 (UTC)
Sorry, I don't have any ideas... the old methods aren't working! Lilactree201 (talk) 17:35, 10 May 2022 (UTC)

Debates

Just wondering if active editors of this page plan to add a section listing the debates taking place during this election campaign.99.240.237.32 (talk) 19:38, 4 May 2022 (UTC)

We can certainly add one once there is content available. RoyalObserver (talk) 08:21, 10 May 2022 (UTC)
The first debate took place today: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/northern-ontario-leaders-debate-1.6447576 99.240.237.32 (talk) 01:52, 11 May 2022 (UTC)
I've added a table. If anybody has RS for future debates and it has all of the information, feel free to add. Otherwise, we can just add them to the table as they occur. RoyalObserver (talk) 11:19, 11 May 2022 (UTC)
It looks like there will be a debate on May 16: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/leader-baggage-debates-ontario-election-2022-1.6446428 99.240.237.32 (talk) 23:30, 11 May 2022 (UTC)

I have added info about the 2nd debate. So far, I can't find any RS that says if it's bilingual, and where it is being held. I assume it will be in Toronto since it's the consortium debate, but Wikipedia is not for editor's assumptions. :) Not the end of the world, we can update the table once that information is published. If anybody has RS for that information, feel free to update it. RoyalObserver (talk) 13:55, 12 May 2022 (UTC)

Found a source about Toronto - still nothing on the language. RoyalObserver (talk) 14:47, 12 May 2022 (UTC)

Target Seats

Hi fellow editors. After reviewing this page and pages for previous elections, I've come to the thought that the Target Seats section should either be removed or reworked (perhaps to something like "2018 close ridings"). Each party will genuinely have target seats, but they may not be seats that were simply close races in the previous election. Other factors come into play, such as star candidates, polling at this point, etc. Unless a leak of a party's list of "target seats" happens that we can cite, I don't think we should have this unsourced list that arbitrarily decided that the "winning candidate won by a margin of less than 5%, where a swing of 2.5% or less is all that is needed for victory." It isn't for us as editors to decide what seats are target seats. I would recommend removing this section completely, like in previous Ontario general election pages. Looking forward to the discussion. RoyalObserver (talk) 08:20, 10 May 2022 (UTC)

Inserting such a section is not unlike that found at List of target seats in the 2019 United Kingdom general election. Restricting it to a Top-10 or Top-20 list for each party would always be useful for analysis purposes later, as it would be based on actual 2018 results. How well each party succeeds or fails in gaining such low-hanging fruit would surely reflect on their capabilities.Raellerby (talk) 14:07, 15 May 2022 (UTC)
The article does not currently have a "target seats" section as it was removed here, but I agree, it is not based on any refs, is strictly WP:OR and should not be reinstated. - Ahunt (talk) 14:34, 15 May 2022 (UTC)
It's more likely a case of WP:CRYSTALBALL as opposed to WP:OR, unless there are reported leaks from party insiders on the subject. It's probably more appropriate to present a post-election analysis of the marginal races that actually occurred.Raellerby (talk) 12:16, 16 May 2022 (UTC)
For the record, I posted this comment prior to the removal of the section. RoyalObserver (talk) 07:58, 17 May 2022 (UTC)

IBEW endorsement

The IBEW did not endorse the PCs The IBEW-CCO, a smaller group within the IBEW did.

https://www.ibewcanada.ca/news/ivp-reids-statement-on-2022-ontario-provincial-election/

2607:FEA8:E25F:E100:F94A:26DD:76D8:8F (talk) 17:41, 21 May 2022 (UTC)

Edited to better reflect the endorsement.Mr. No Funny Nickname (talk) 17:54, 21 May 2022 (UTC)

Derecho impact

There probably should be a paragraph regarding closure / relocation of advance polls due to the May 2022 Canadian derecho. Offhand, I know that Brampton, Peterborough, and Ottawa were heavily affected, that London North Centre had a fallen tree temporarily blocking access to one of the advance polls, that the London-Fanshawe Stronach location was temporarily closed due to tornado ( see https://uwo.ca/ntp/blog/2022/two_ef1_tornadoes_in_london_on.html ), and that a couple of Ottawa locations are still without power. I don't know how to work it into this article without disrupting the standard template. Some relevant text can be found in the Aftermath section of the linked article. - Tenebris 66.11.165.101 (talk) 10:00, 28 May 2022 (UTC)

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