Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/October

October

Week 1

98L.INVEST

The non-tropical low at 29.6N 29.8W, mentioned in the 5:30 TWO, has become better organized and is now 98L. -- RattleMan 22:33, 2 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Intresting location... →Cyclone1→ 22:44, 2 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Called this one in IRC earlier. It looks really good, and it's over warm waters (24-26 degrees C). Mid-level shear's quite low on the CIMSS maps, as well. It should be interesting to see if this does anything. --Core des at (talk) 00:29, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Does this look very familiar to you? CrazyC83 00:34, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

NRL already has it at 35kt. We could have a subtropical storm sooner rather than later. Pobbie Rarr 02:47, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That is quite possible, although the NHC is downplaying it. I need to wait for Quikscat to come up to see if there is a closed circulation... CrazyC83 03:15, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

NHC thinks its pretty much dead now. Jamie|C 17:30, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Oh well. →Cyclone1→ 20:54, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone now. --Mark J 08:37, 6 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

99L.INVEST

New Invest up around 29.6N 70.0W. --Ajm⁸¹ 12:35, 6 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Further west than any of our past few storms have been. Still,

“

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...IS LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

”

– Ch acor 13:54, 6 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Recon tomorrow, "if necessary". --Core des at (talk) 20:28, 6 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's not tropical at this point, but could gain characteristics. Environment is not great for formation though... CrazyC83 21:20, 6 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Danger area up. →Cyclone1→ 00:30, 7 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks pretty healthy on satellite images. It's a pretty big system, looks like the low pressure area extends from Nova Scotia to the southeastern Bahamas. AstroHurricane001 14:38, 7 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

"Healthy" if you mean the extratropical remnants of it. There's very little left of this to develop. – Ch acor 14:42, 7 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yep, danger area's gone, too. Looks like if anything is going to form in this area, it'll be that deep low over the Carolina's when it moves offshore. →Cyclone1→ 17:35, 7 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Danger area down now. Not looking too good 204.108.237.194 18:10, 7 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone from NRL. --Ajm⁸¹ 04:07, 8 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2

90L.INVEST

Up on NRL for the area east of the Lesser Antilles. Hurricanehink (talk) 00:15, 11 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

From NHC:

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

Hurricanehink (talk) 00:16, 11 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It does have some pockets of favorable conditions that could allow it to develop, but it would be short-lived most likely. CrazyC83 14:34, 11 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Why is it called 90L if there has already been a 99L? I think the wind shear in the Carribbean should prevent it form going as far as the Gulf Coast. It does look pretty healthy, though. AstroHurricane001 22:03, 11 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Invests are areas of potential development with numbers reserved between 90 and 99. Thus, after 99 is 90 again. Hurricanehink (talk) 22:06, 11 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Its up on NHC's danger area now. Jamie|C 12:35, 12 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA issued by KNGU. – Ch acor 15:31, 12 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Chances of formation dimishing...bob rulz 20:01, 12 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Threres still some spin left in it. Storm05 13:31, 13 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. -- RattleMan 00:12, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

91L.INVEST

Weak looking system in the EAtl. – Ch acor 14:36, 12 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This thing looks rather pathetic and NHC isn't impressed with it at all. bob rulz 20:00, 12 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I agree with the NHC. But, you never know. →Cyclone1→ 22:08, 12 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. bob rulz 02:19, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 3

92L.INVEST

Up on NRL. No image yet, but it's probably that low over the Gulf.→Cyclone1→ 01:38, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yep, it is. Looks really good. I see a Joyce in the short term. →Cyclone1→ 01:39, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I doubt it, it's under heavy shear so unless that shear goes away, Joyce will have to wait. 24.85.160.56 01:40, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

First guidance out! SHIPs forecast peak of 49kt at 72h, while DSHP peaks at 34kt in 24h. All available models head for Louisiana, LBAR going over/near NOLA. -- RattleMan 02:14, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, this thing looks impressive. But the shear has to weaken considerably. bob rulz 02:20, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wind shear is forecast to weaken in the Gulf next week. Of course 92L may not be around long enough to see it happen. Pobbie Rarr 02:24, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Not likely to happen, but it is nearly stationary. →Cyclone1→ 02:40, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Quite surprising for it to come up. Unlike 91L, this one has a legitimate chance. CrazyC83 03:37, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well, the convection has really dried up over the past few hours. It looks like the shear's made short work of it. --Core des at 03:50, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This sounds like such a dunce of a thing to ask - but has anyone got the links to the references doktorb _words^deeds 03:56, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's in the Naval Research Laboratory. Tito xd^(?!?) 03:59, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wind shear in the Gulf is averaging 40-50 knots right now, it would take a dramatic weakening for this thing to even have a chance (can you spell "long shot"?). Never thought I'd find myself enjoying a quiet spell but I am. Saves money on coffins and that's always a good thing. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 05:27, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Interesting... – Ch acor 10:39, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Very... Looks like a Joyce to me. Bouy reading are already getting sustained winds of over 40mph. I'd say thishas abetter chance than what the sheer makes it look like. It's catching sheer from newly formed Norman, too, so when Norman moves overland and loses circulation, well, we'll see. →Cyclone1→ 13:11, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like they are headed on a collision course... CrazyC83 16:42, 15 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That would be cool. →Cyclone1→ 01:30, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Seems to be making landfall and a tornado-producer more than anything... CrazyC83 16:41, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Certainly it's a rain-producer. There's tons of flooding in southeast Texas and Louisiana right now. bob rulz 23:11, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That too this afternoon and evening. It was a tropical storm in all but name and formation... CrazyC83 00:29, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well, apparently this thing is now responsible for a few deaths and injuries as well as much damage to infrastructure. Which means that 92L has had more impact than any of the named storms this year (perhaps even including Ernesto). Pobbie Rarr 02:34, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Maybe this storm even deserves an article. Looks like there will be rain over parts of Mexico over the next few days due to 92L and Norman. AstroHurricane001 00:04, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I doubt an INVEST desverves it-unless 92L forms with Norman for real damages.Mitchazenia V3.0 18:47, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Invests don't get articles unless they do something absolutely spectacular. Rain alone isn't spectacular. --Core des at 19:47, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Has one gotton one before though?platyfish625 23:37, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yea. In fact, invests are more likely to get articles than depressions; numerous tropical waves or disturbances, such as the one that hit North Carolina back in June, resulted in severe flooding, but never developed into tc's. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:50, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Hello? Is 92L active or dissipated? If Norman is long gone, and Paul is also dissapating, is 92L still producing convection or is it gone? I notice the last message refering to 92L as active was more than a week ago. So has 92L stayed active throught all this time, or did the landfall make it lose all of its convection? AstroHurricane001 13:49, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I was going to ask the same thing a couple of days ago but by now I think it should have dissipated platyfish625 14:58, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

90L.INVEST

It's back from the dead. [1] I can't see anything forming from this, though. →Cyclone1→ 15:12, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Any thoughts? →Cyclone1→ 23:21, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like the tail end of a front. Perhaps the models are calling for the formation of a cutoff low. --Core des at 23:51, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone again. -- RattleMan 01:49, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

SSD 9:45pm UTC - 20N 66.5W -- TOO WEAK -- グリフオーザー 05:26, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Interestingly, it was mentioned in the 10:30 PM TWO:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST

NORTH OF PUERTO RICO HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION.

--Core des at 05:28, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Back on FNMOC. -- RattleMan 06:54, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Back on NRL now. -- RattleMan 17:08, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Too much shear, but give this thing credit for lasting this long - this blob deserves to become Joyce... CrazyC83 18:34, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This storm wont die!!! →Cyclone1→ 22:36, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Sorry but this storm is sincerely dead... — Alastor Moody _{(T + C + U)} 07:57, 22 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

So is this storm still going or has the convection all dried up? I notice there is still some convection east of the West Indies. AstroHurricane001 13:54, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 4

93L.INVEST

And a 93L has just appeared on the backup Navy site. 11.8N, 47.7W, east of the Windward Islands. --Core des at 01:20, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That's the low that the NHC was talking about in their disscussion that i posted on this page which was reverted by chacor yesterday. Storm05 12:59, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, because we do not allow AOIs. – Ch acor 13:03, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks pretty solid. Joyce anyone? →Cyclone1→ 21:15, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It is still a fight ahead for it... CrazyC83 22:44, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Not exactly true. Sheer is lightening up and conditions are becoming more favorable. →Cyclone1→ 00:09, 28 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The storms this season haven't been very good at utilizing opportunities given to them and this piece of crap has a long way to go if it has any aspirations to become a tropical cyclone. The models point it towards Jamaica, athough if it develops, that won't stay the case for it would be a much deeper system. It's surprising to me that there is that there would be that much northerly shift for such a shallow system. If it develops (a big if at this point) I predict it to swing northeast, splicing through the Greater Antilles into the open Atlantic. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 19:30, 28 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Me too. I think it could effect Cuba and Bahamas (if it develops of course). →Cyclone1→ 19:48, 28 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Convection is increasing slowly. Will it last? Doubtfully, but it's trying. →Cyclone1→ 20:53, 28 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And now it's beginning to die. →Cyclone1→ 02:16, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow! It look much better today! →Cyclone1→ 13:15, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

NHC has issued a SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION

WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE

NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT

ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL

LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY...WHICH

COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

I bolded what I thought was important. It says "AT THIS TIME", because in the TWO its says (not exact quote) "COULD DEVELOP OVERTIME". And life-threating is always important. This is beginning to remind me of the 2004 May wave, except it's still moving west, not north over Haiti. Any way, this storm looks like it could be a winner if you ask me. We could have a Joyce before Wednesday. →Cyclone1→ 13:23, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I wasn't into hurricanes in 2004, so what happened with the 2004 May wave? Let me guess, a bunch of people died. I think hink mentioned he was gonna make an article for it a while ago, but he never did. Maybe it should be done. íslenskur fel lib ylur #12 _(samtal) 14:45, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Over 2,000 people died from that May wave in 2004. If we were active then, there likely would have been an article on the spot there. CrazyC83 15:12, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This thing's developing too slowly. If it doesn't have a number under 12 by the time it reaches the Greater Antilles, it's finished. That probably doesn't make Haiti or Cuba feel any better though. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 18:04, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The NHC's beginning to lose faith in it. →Cyclone1→ 23:00, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I agree. I never felt it would develop, but that would just be semantics at this point. The impact would be no different whether or not it did develop. CrazyC83 01:18, 30 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. íslenskur fel lib ylur #12 _(samtal) 12:37, 30 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's back! --Ajm⁸¹ 19:09, 31 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Seems like 93 has become more of a trough, with two main low pressure areas: One north of Honduras and one east of Nicaragua. Both are fairly organized. The one further north looks like it has a better chance, because the other is close too landfall. →Cyclone1→ 01:37, 1 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Still some spin left in it [2]. Storm05 16:31, 2 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Dvorak estimates now T1.5/1.5! -- WmE 18:15, 2 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks better organized than Gamma and Kyle 02 ever were in that spot. I'm suprised that the NHC doesn't even expect development into a TD. íslenskur fel lib ylur #12 _(samtal) 22:32, 2 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

90L.INVEST (error)

Up on the NRL. No pic. What happened to 94-99? or is that just an error? →Cyclone1→ 17:23, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I wouldn't be surprised. Computers as well as humans are prone to glitches. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 18:04, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's gone now. -- WmE 19:08, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]