Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/June

Week 1

Welcome the official start of the season. NSL E _(T+C) at 00:05 UTC (2006-06-01)

Indeed, welcome! -- RattleMan 00:08, 1 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And *gasp* no tropical cyclones to date! Who would have thought that there would have been no cyclones in the off-season, unheard of isn't it?--Nilfanion (talk) 00:25, 1 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Uhm, cyclones in the off-season? Tropical Storm Zeta (2005) ;) NSL E _(T+C) at 00:49 UTC (2006-06-01)

Sorry, I was half asleep I meant no pre-season activity... and how many AoI's "with a 90% chance of development" did we have?--Nilfanion (talk) 07:27, 1 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Don't be too sure Nilfanion. There is ongoing discussion of the tropical depression-like entity that struck Texas on May 31st with 32 mph sustained winds at Corpus Christi, and up to 14 inches of rain over the past 2-3 days which is drifting through southern Texas at this time. Apparently one of the C-man stations reported tropical storm force winds. I'll be curious to see the post-season/post-June evaluation of this system, if it doesn't sneak back into the Gulf of Mexico in the next 24 hours. Thegreatdr 22:32, 2 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The reason for my *shock* comment was more to do with the tendency of editors here to try and find storms out of nothing than any real comment on off-season activity; when you see 20 "this one could be Alberto's" you get a bit fed up. Check the "Tropical Discussions" and "Predictions" subpages to this article, for a bit of entertainment...--Nilfanion (talk) 22:42, 2 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Holy smokes! I remember making predictions vaguely like those before I graduated. Unfortunately, whether it is true or not, it gives people the impression that you look for wonton destruction when you make forecasts of major hurricanes making landfall. At least one of their "forecasts" may come to pass, but it would be random chance. Thegreatdr 22:58, 2 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Um, 2005 didn't show us climatolgy means little. The forecast verification says that climatology was better than the NHC forecast for (non-landfall) 120 hour intensity predictions. I'm not going to claim the NHC means little though!--Nilfanion (talk) 07:27, 1 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It just shows up the climatology is incomplete or not over a long enough time period. Wait til you see the 1951 re-analysis...a January tropical storm and a December hurricane appear likely to be added for that season. =) Thegreatdr 22:36, 2 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That sounds interesting, do you know when the next lot of reanalysis will be released then?--Nilfanion (talk) 22:42, 2 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Not at the moment. The extended 2005 season ate into most of the time when another group of re-analyses would have been finished. I could let you all know when they're out though. It will likely cover the rest of the 1910's and 1920's. Thegreatdr 22:58, 2 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

2006 looks to be an interesting year. I'm up here in New England and I remember hearing that hurricanes may be hitting the east coast. Any more news on this? SargeAbernathy 17:42, 2 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Zeta was 2005, not 2006, technically. Anyway, welcome to the new season! I wonder how many showed up at the welcome center to get the necessities? All signs point to a long season ahead...so be ready for ANYTHING!!! 2005 showed us climatology means little. Every storm is different!!! CrazyC83 01:13, 1 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The first Atlantic TWO is out, two "highlights":

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GREEK ALPHABET IS USED SHOULD THE STANDARD LIST OF NAMES BE EXHAUSTED...AS IT WAS LAST YEAR.

We know that for sure now...--Nilfanion (talk) 12:16, 1 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

If an TWO shows potential for development, would it be appropiate to discuss it here rather than the subpage? This makes sense, as TWOs are official, unlike AoIs.--JasonJack 1:57, 1 June 2006 (UTC)

Not really, the TWO is an abbreviated form of the TWD and AoI's cover the same things as that. Reason for not bringing up TWOs here in general is the same as for no AoI's - we would just clog this page up.--Nilfanion (talk) 14:50, 1 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed, INVESTs only. The rest should go on the appropriate subpage. --Ajm⁸¹ 14:53, 1 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

No, no, no. TWOs are issued by hurricane specialists or those training to be specialists. TWDs are done by TAFB analysts. Two different sets of products, though there is definitely coordination between TAFB and NHC, the two components of TPC. Thegreatdr 23:01, 2 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2

01L.Alberto

See the Alberto storm event archive.

Week 3

With Alberto out of the way, it is a waiting game now. There are several Beryl-wannabes out there, but the conditions still aren't great for development. CrazyC83 23:57, 15 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Of note, extratropical Alberto is finally gone from NRL. -- RattleMan 00:18, 16 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

COnditions are horrible Atlantic-wide right now, just take a look at the WV loop -Winter123 03:30, 17 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

A nasty spell of weather is on the cards here in Britain due to an intense low heading our way. Is this Alberto striking from the grave? I remember long-term forecasts showing the remnants eventually reaching here. Pobbie Rarr 14:00, 19 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The low located in the north sea is whats left of alberto. You can see a map showing the low on this danish site [1]. Isfisk 14:18, 19 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ah, that'll be Alberto that has passed over us today then. No deaths or damages reported, but plenty of misery as our summer is being ruined ;). It's still raining now actually. Pobbie Rarr 01:34, 20 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I thought Alberto was absorbed by another extratropical system south of Nova Scotia, which later reformed? CrazyC83 03:15, 20 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Per NHC, surface pressures are falling northeast of the Bahamas with that disturbed area that has been there for a few days. Heavily sheared, but so was Alberto, and its over the gulf stream. Runningonbrains 21:49, 22 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

91L.INVEST

I detected a big blow up of thunderstorms over the Bahamas with a slight rotaton. [2] The SST's are high [3] and shear is low. [4] Storm05 17:40, 19 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Possible it could become tropical... -Winter123 19:31, 19 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

NHC doesn't expect it to develop (from the TWO):

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CENTRAL CUBA... AND EXTEND EASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER... BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

—AySz88 \^-^ 03:37, 20 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The NCEP Model sends this thing into Florida with no associated low pressure. It looks like a high pressure to the west is keeping this thing at thunderstorm status. It's impressive on satellite imagery though. I wouldn't be surprise to see an Invest out of this. (I don't expect it too, I just wouldn't be surprised.) →Cyclone1→ 14:46, 20 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I don't expect development out of it, but CNN on the air said it had potential... CrazyC83 15:41, 20 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The 00z June 20 run of the CMC develops something in the area in 5-6 days. link I don't know if it's the same system though. TimL 19:01, 20 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I doubt it. This system is rapidly loosing convection. →Cyclone1→ 02:06, 21 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well, I think its looking significantly better today, with some outflow and may be starting to form a surface low. and the GFS hints at development, and movement around the High, into the Carolinas or NE. -Winter123 21:01, 21 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Big convective blowup, but buoy obs show that pressures are rising, not falling. --Coredesat 21:26, 21 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I don't think it's going to last much longer. →Cyclone1→ 12:12, 22 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST. (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/221518.shtml)

so yeah... it could be TD2... jj 21:26, 22 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, things are getting interesting again. I expect an Invest later today! (your time! :P) -- WmE 21:39, 22 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The convective blowup from earlier this morning seems to be subsiding somewhat, and the convection is becoming less organized. Shear is decreasing over the system, so it has some time to get its act together. --Coredesat 11:41, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

91L.INVEST

91L.INVEST is now up on NRL. [5] --Coredesat 12:38, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

5:30 AM TWO gives it possibility, let's see what the 11:30 AM one has. -- RattleMan 13:45, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.

jj 15:23, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

A subtropical depression, eh? I'd like to see one of those form. Who's for Subtropical Depression Two by tonight? íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 15:32, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The area is not fully tropical yet so it would most likely have some subtropical characteristics, but they could still declare it Tropical Depression Two. At this point, I'd give it a 40% chance of development as the conditions are not as favorable as they were with Alberto. CrazyC83 15:46, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

NRL have a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert out. NSLE 16:35, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Can we get a link to that? jj 16:44, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

NRL: [6] NSLE 16:58, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like we will get the 2nd storm of the season before we last year did. This frightens me. íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 16:48, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I was just thinking this morning how much hype it would get in the news if Beryl was as similar to Bret as Alberto was to Arlene. However, that assumed that Beryl would form in the last couple of days of June. This is earlier, and 2006 is so far keeping pace with 2005. —Cuivi é nen 16:54, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I predict it to become a category 1 hurricane before landfall... —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 203.177.249.184 (talk • contribs) 16:51, 23 June 2006.

How do you know? It isn`t even a tropical cyclone at the moment, lately the NRL issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for the system south-southwest of Lower California, that died, although it appeared to be in good circumstances..Tropische Storm Sven 16:58, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Right now, I'm still not terribly confident that this will even develop. I can't see it getting much above a low-end (sub)tropical storm if it does. June storms in the Atlantic always tend to struggle badly. CrazyC83 17:01, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I know in 1887 a 2nd storm formed before now, but what other years have had formation on or before June 24? jj 17:33, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

1959 had second by 15 Jun and third by 18th Jun. 1968 had second by 17 Jun and third by 22 Jun. 1982 had a TS the a subTS on 18 Jun. 1986 had a second TS by 23 Jun. crandles 21:50, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The Great Zo's project [7] lists the Earliest Second-Storm Formations as:

Rank Date Time Year Name

01 May 17 00Z 1887 #2 02 May 26 00Z 1908 #2 03 June 4 12Z 1934 #2 04 June 8 00Z 1871 #2 05 June 14 06Z 1906 #2 06 June 15 00Z 1889 #2 07 June 16 06Z 1959 Beulah 08 June 17 00Z 1886 #2 09 June 19 06Z 1936 #2 10 June 21 06Z 1968 Brenda 11 June 24 12Z 1902 #2 12 June 24 18Z 1986 Bonnie

crandles 22:03, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

There's a lot of dry air between this system and Florida. It looks like if it does develop, it won't develop into anything beyond a weak tropical storm. bob rulz 22:05, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks ugly now. I'm beginning to wonder if this will develop at all - it just looks like popcorn convection at the moment. --Coredesat 22:37, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well, the most recent TWO does say that pressures are dropping, and that conditions are improving and are predicted to continue to improve. It also says that the system is staying disorganized, though. —Cuivi é nen 23:29, 23 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N74W OR ABOUT 330 
MILES EAST OF FLORIDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND 
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD 
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND.

íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 01:19, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well, it hasn't developed much since that TWO, and right now, the convection looks very shallow, though I guess that also means it might reorganize somewhat easily. The 10:30 PM EST TWO is below. —AySz88 \^-^ 06:43, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.

It looks like it's falling apart now. bob rulz 07:04, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Convection has improved a little bit over the last hours, however I don't think that it will develop anymore! -- WmE 09:41, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wee bit more convection, but it looks more like popcorn storms than anything else. The dry air has decreased in coverage, but there's still enough to do a number on this system. --Coredesat 10:02, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Actually it looks better now. The convection has increased and the pressure has dropped in Florida. Maybe it could strengthen as the SSTs are quite warm and the dry air around it moistens. -- WmE 19:09, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This system looks retarded! and I thought Alberto looked bad. There barely any convection associated with this system!!!!!!!! It looked pretty good yesterday during the day.... Ypu can see the circulation though--65.2.48.155 22:45, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

!!!!!! --Golbez 22:57, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

yup the storm looks so bad to me as well -- VOFFA 23:05, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It is still unorganized.. but if it form the center could be placed more offshore, giving it more time to develop....well here in south florida i am at least getting a little rain--HurricaneRo 00:50, 25 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This system seems to be sucking the convection over south Florida.Mayb this will benifit it???--65.2.48.155 01:07, 25 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The NHC is no longer expecting development of 91L, according to the latest tropical cyclone danger graphic. --Coredesat 10:32, 25 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Look this was just in from the tropical weather outlook "... AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH WITH A GUST TO 42 MPH WAS REPORTED ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND EARLIER TODAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING" this sounds like something is going to form--65.2.48.155 15:34, 26 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Right now, it looks like the NHC thinks it can do something, or they wouldn't mention it... I'd say nothing more than a TD...at best... 10% to TD. - Bladeswin posting as 207.30.145.6 17:06, 26 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's definitely looking better now. The convection is back with a vengeance, and it's really trying to organize itself. --Coredesat talk 00:19, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's making 'landfall' though, so that could close any window it has to develop. CrazyC83 01:39, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Actually, the satellite loop shows it moving north-northeast. [8] --Coredesat talk 02:34, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

7:30 am EDT Special Statement: SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. NSLE 12:40, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

VERY close to becoming a tropical depression. If it is moving away from land, it should develop. If it is headed towards landfall, it may be more difficult. CrazyC83 13:02, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Spiral bands beginning to form, convection increasing. If that little low stays over warm water for another couple of hours it's got a good chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. See [9] —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 87.122.45.199 (talk • contribs).

Recon currently in it. It observed a 55kt flight level wind, however it hasn't found a closed circulation yet! -- WmE 17:11, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The Tropical Cyclone Danger Area thingy on the NHC shows a large area where a tropical cyclone could form in the next 12 to 24 hours, but it shows the formation area in an area where the storm isn't. I don't get it. I don't even know if what I said makes sense :P íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 17:29, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

South of the north Carolina Coast extending north? Well it is south of the coast, the rest is probably where the cyclone could go in 24hrs if it developed. Jamie|C

18:51, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

NRL has 45 mph winds up, this might be a bit like ts Tammy. íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 19:56, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

45 mph doesn't make it a TS if there isn't a closed circulation, which is what is lacking per the 2:28 update. NSLE 19:58, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I know ; that's why I said it would be like tammy. íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 20:00, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The system made landfall per the 5:30 EST TWO. Tropical cyclone development is now quite a bit less likely. But I guess it's possible that it could develop overland, like when Gaston restrengthened into a tropical storm. Or it could move back off the coast and redevelop over the Gulf Stream, I guess. íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 21:47, 27 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It looked like it had a eye and a eye wall earlier today--65.2.149.46 00:05, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Just released:

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE
BAY.  HOWEVER...THE LOW HAS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  GALE WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE
AFFECTED AREAS...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE CONCERNING GALE WARNINGS AND ANY RAINFALL AND/OR
FLOOD STATEMENTS.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE TODAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

I think this one may be upgraded to a subtropical or tropical storm after the fact. —Cuivi é nen 04:20, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's possible. In fact, I think it should posthumously be declared Tropical Storm Two (or Beryl) right now, as there were signs of a missed low-level circulation. I doubt it will get back to such as a front is about to absorb it. CrazyC83 05:03, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yea. I think it's definetly gonna be declared Tropical Storm Two in post-season analysis. I bet the data received on the storm was just at the wrong time and that the storm did have a low level circulation. If the NHC doesn't declare it a storm, I'd like to have a few words with them. We'll see soon enough. íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 14:42, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed. Though, they would call it Unnamed Tropical Storm and not TS 2, I guess. -- WmE 20:33, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It will be intresting to see. Bsed on radar observations, it looked to me like the core of the system spun up over North Carolina and after a few hours became disorganized again. Whether that ever translated into a closed surface circulation I cannot say for sure, and I would not blame the NHC for taking their time in looking at the appropriate observations to determine if one existed. --EMS | Talk 02:42, 29 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

A 2-day loop of the storm. It DEFINITELY looked like a TD a few hours before landfall. I think this will be an unnamed TD in the post analysis... has that even happened before?? -24.195.163.207 07:05, 2 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Side-tracking but...

I think the Mid-Atlantic floods, even if they were not from a named storm, warrant an article themselves, like Mid-Atlantic Flood of June 2006. Anyone agree? (Flooding articles tend to be more difficult due to the localized, yet widespread, information) CrazyC83 03:42, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It depends on how much damage there is. If there's extensive damage, then I have no problem with an article on the flooding (see Northeast U.S. flooding of October 2005). If not, then it may not be worth the time to put an article together, and it may end up being judged as not notable enough. --Coredesat talk 06:51, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Not sure of the damage, but six people are dead. CrazyC83 14:50, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It has been an unprecedented event, and some areas have received nearly a foot of rain! Certainly it deserves an article. --tomf688 (talk - email) 15:24, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Death toll up from six to nine. CrazyC83 16:39, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I've got the article going. Hard to believe that a tropical low is this destructive! CrazyC83 19:50, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Hope that doesn't foreshadow things to come!WotGoPlunk 20:08, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 4

92L.INVEST

Here we have another Invest in the Atlantic.[10]-- WmE 13:04, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks very good, and is already at depression strength (here loosely defined as the strength the NHC starts issuing warnings on TDs). However, it's 1019mb, which may say something about its tropicality... NSLE 13:13, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, now it is definitely cold core, but things can change very fast! -- WmE 13:20, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow. I never expected a storm of that organization to form so far north at this time of the year! This is crazy! Now the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006 has 2 chances of getting ahead of last year's season! íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 13:33, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The cold-core nature would make such development difficult. I really don't think this has a great chance at development. I'd put it at 20%. CrazyC83 14:57, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I say there's a 40% chance of subtropical development. Maybe a little higher, though.íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 15:00, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow. This things got an eye (sorta). íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 16:20, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I'd give it a less than 5% chane of becoming a (Sub)tropical Depression. It looks fairly bad on the infared. 24.83.123.85 18:30, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It must be more than 5%, it`s on the Tropical Cyclones Danger Area page now...[11]Tropische Storm Sven 19:35, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

All it needs to become a subtropical depression is some more convection. -- WmE 19:52, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

But it seems to be losing convection... íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 22:50, 24 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Convection is definitely increasing southeast of the center, but there's almost nothing anywhere else. --Coredesat 10:34, 25 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone!! -- WmE 21:27, 25 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

93L.INVEST

Here we go again. Another Invest in the Atlantic. [12] -- WmE 21:27, 25 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

They called it before I could even identify it as an Area of Interest (which I was going to do now)... —The preceding unsigned comment was added by CrazyC83 (talk • contribs) 21:56, 25 June 2006 (UTC).[reply]

It looks like a random clump of cloud to me, not too organized. Tito xd^(?!?) 21:56, 25 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Is this different from AoI:06W4A: N of the Lesser Antilles then? what is going on there? jj 00:58, 26 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That AoI was absorbed by 91L I think. This developed too fast to declare an AoI (it would have been 06W4B). CrazyC83 22:58, 26 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's not expected to develop, but it doesn't look too bad. It's only at 8N though, so maybe if it migrates above 10N we could see some more development out of this thing? bob rulz 16:36, 26 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I heard this one could develop also it has a loq level circulation--65.2.149.46 00:07, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Heard from whom? God? =) doktorb _words^deeds 06:59, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Actually, the TWDs have been noting that the wave has a defined LLC for the last day or so, but the 2:05 AM one doesn't mention it. --Coredesat talk 10:30, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looking much more organized now... íslenska hurikein #12_(samtal) 20:16, 28 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And then just overnight, it nearly disappears. But now it's starting to regain clouds and convection. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 14:17, 29 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The Carribean is being a huge bitch so far this year. Shear is so high alot of the time inhibiting any tropical cyclone development. --HurricaneRo 15:38, 29 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. Maybe it could redevelop. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 21:29, 29 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 5

94L.INVEST

A burst of convection in the Bay of Campeche. As it is to close to land it probably won't develop, but you never know. -- WmE 20:05, 29 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

94L.INVEST

Ohhh, that was fast! [13]-- WmE 20:24, 29 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Development will probably slow, if there is any. There's 30 kt of shear (and increasing) over it, and it's really close to land. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 21:27, 29 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Who knows, it just might be like Bret of last year. 24.83.123.85 22:21, 29 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

You mean Bret, right? And yea, I was thinking the same thing. So far, the o6 season has almost been the same as last year's. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 22:32, 29 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, it was pretty much this time last year when Bret formed. Florida had better hope this doesn't mean we'll have Dennis II on our hands in a week's time. ;) Pobbie Rarr 22:50, 29 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It was a year ago yesterday when Bret formed. I think it has about a 40% chance of development. CrazyC83 01:14, 30 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Seems to be dissipating, but maybe something will force back into the Gulf, or maybe it will redevelop in the Pacific. You never know. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 00:45, 30 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Now it almost seems to be reforming. The NHC says it's moving northwest, so it still has a little while until it makes landfall, but if it move north-northwest, then that would allow it to form. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 13:15, 30 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I don't expect it to develop. The shear is quite high and increasing and pressures are very high in this area. -- WmE 14:04, 30 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well, not only did it redevelop, it seems a whole new center formed farther from land; it looks like a second chance for to be Beryl! íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 14:38, 30 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It doesn't look bad, but the NHC isn't too impressed with it, per the 11:30 TWO

"A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT." --Hurricanehink (talk) 14:43, 30 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like it's getting a bit better organized tonight. -24.195.163.207 01:55, 1 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Now it's gone!! -- WmE 15:42, 1 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Actually, it looks much better now. I wonder if it could develop as the remnants of 93L. reach the Gulf of Mexico. -- WmE 13:53, 2 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's not over yet. A Recon will start today, so perhaps we'll have Beryl, though not very likely. -- WmE 18:14, 2 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

95L.INVEST

There's a nice convective blowup east of the Bahamas, in about the same area 91L developed in. This is more than likely different from the earlier AoI that was in the same area. From the most recent TWD:

A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM 27N64W S TO NEAR 20N69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N-26N.

There's some nasty shear over it right now, but it's moving into an area of much lighter (and decreasing) shear. Of course, it has to close off into a low before we can talk about development. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 09:42, 30 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Which is why it will have a whale of a time developing. It's only a wave right now. CrazyC83 19:37, 30 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

95L.INVEST

Looks like the satellite completely missed the system. I'm taking a guess it's the system near Puerto Rico. Jake52 My talk 18:00, 30 June 2006 (EST)

It's looking quite organized on the satellite imagery. -Tc w d 23:09, 30 June 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like it's dissapating now. -24.195.163.207 01:58, 1 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Heh, it looked a lot more organized before.. i don't think this thing will go far anymore. -Tc w d 02:49, 1 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And it's gone 68.164.62.23 15:14, 1 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]