Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Ernesto

05L.Ernesto

97L.INVEST

Central Atlantic, 10N 47W. -- RattleMan 18:03, 22 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's about time. If this wave can escape the huge SAL layer nearby I think it has potential. bob rulz 18:12, 22 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The models take it NW, so it should do. Pobbie Rarr 02:52, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Models are calling for a TS in the Caribbean by this weekend, this is one to keep our eye on. track intensity --Holderca1 14:12, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Whoa!! I expected a few models to point at TS strength, but all of them? →Cyclone1→ 16:20, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Danger area up. [1] →Cyclone1→ 16:22, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow, newest SHIPS run brings this to a Cat 2. in 120 hours. Furthermore it looks impressive. -- WmE 18:23, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Can you give me a link please? →Cyclone1→ 18:44, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Latest SHIPS run. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 19:00, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks. →Cyclone1→ 19:20, 23 August 2006 (UTC) One thing very interesting about that is that SHIPS has it at 30kt (35mph - depression strength) within 0000 hours. I'm no mathematician but, isn't 0000 hours right now? How is this not a depression, then? Or am misunderstanding something? →Cyclone1→ 19:29, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical waves sometimes have TS force winds, but they have no closed LLC yet. So this isn't a TD yet. -- WmE 19:36, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Conditions seem favorable for development in the carribean, however ...remember Chris?? ;) BTW sorry Randy, I saw it too late, but Coredesat gave you the link. -- WmE 19:34, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Lol, no problem. That's the first time anyone's ever used my real name on Wikipedia. →Cyclone1→ 20:02, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Windspeed does not a tropical depression make. You can have a 30 mph depression since there is not a minimum. --Holderca1 19:35, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Shear is expected to decrease as the blob moves westward, and the SST's are favorable for rapid intensification - at least 4-7°F warmer than the waters beneath Debby. CrazyC83 19:39, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Whoa... That's not good. →Cyclone1→ 20:06, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Recon plane expected to investigate it tomorrow. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 20:40, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I hate it when they wait till the next day. →Cyclone1→ 20:46, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow! No offense, but I'm suprised no one has called this Ernesto or TD5 yet. Congrats!guitarhero777777 23:35, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's killing us, but we're controling ourselves. →Cyclone1→ 00:26, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

models becoming more bullish, taking it to Cat. 2 by 120hrs, at 18Z intensity jj 23:58, 23 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow! That's insane. →Cyclone1→ 00:26, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Automatic Tropical Cyclone Formation alert (12 am UTC) グリフオーザー 00:44, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Dvorak T-numbers now at 1.5/1.5. -- RattleMan 06:54, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It has a reds in infrared images, i think it is developing a low level circulation in decreasing wind shear and warm waters. -Irfanfaiz 12:56, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

How long now until the hurricane hunters get there? Pobbie Rarr 14:50, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Departure time 16Z. – Ch acor 14:53, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Plane just found a closed circulation!! -- WmE 18:38, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Didn't see your post, easily seen on the loop. [2] --Holderca1 18:53, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Right, the circulation can be seen easily. However, this could also be an MLC, so one should wait for the recon, to get the confirmation. -- WmE 19:01, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like it is getting better organized, well defined center of circulation on visible. --Holderca1 18:48, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Depression Five

STDS:

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME. so we've TD5 or ernseto!! -- WmE 19:17, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yep, it is TD5 now and is too late for a special advisory. CrazyC83 19:20, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This thing is going to get sheared apart in the next few days. EHoffman 19:45, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Shear? There is hardly any shear in the Caribbean. [3] --Holderca1 19:54, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The shear is forecast to dissipate, but at the moment there is a good amount in its path.[4] If it makes it into the Gulf, it should be good to go.--EHoffman 19:59, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Models, hot off the press: early cycle, late cycle, GFS Ensemble, intensity --Holderca1 19:57, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Some gray in latest IR satelite [5] Hello32020 20:33, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And here comes the next one. Just like Beryl, Ernesto has never become a hurricane, but most models seem confident that this thing will make it. Jake52 My talk 20:39, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This does seem like the curse of 06. Every storm (pending Debby) was forecast to be a hurricane but never made it. guitarhero777777 22:25, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Beryl was never expected to be a hurricane; it actually beat expectations. CrazyC83 22:34, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Article recommendation on Ernesto: Create at first watch or warning (for any area). I am sure this will require one, but I'd do it when a watch or warning is issued - not right when it gets its name. Sandbox will be at User:CrazyC83/Ernesto06. CrazyC83 20:57, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ehh, I'd recommend a little later. I think whichever of the following comes first is good; first hurricane warning, first info on preparations/evacs, first damage report. A tropical storm watch might go up soon for Jamaica, but there'd still be no need for an article. Hurricanehink (talk) 21:05, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Unless there is a fairly large amount of damage in Jamaica (unlikely though) Hello32020 21:47, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

NHC officially confirms it. Jake52 My talk 22:30, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

comfirm what? The TD or Ernesto? —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Fableheroesguild (talk • contribs).

The TD. The current trajectory predicts that it will become a TS within a day. Fabricationary 22:42, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Normally, I'd be concerned by a storm in that part of the Atlantic, but the Caribbean has not been very Caribbean-ish this year. I don't think this quiet spell deserves the moniker "curse". "Blessing" seems more appropriate. I don't recall Beryl ever realistically forecast to be a hurricane but I think reverse psychology has had an effect this year. The upper level wind shear has kept all storms in check this year. If this storm reaches hurricane strength, I doubt it will be much of one. Of course, doomsayers deserve some credit: their reverse psychology has been working for us so far. Keep it up guys! -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 23:03, 24 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TS in a day huh? The season becomes suddenly active near September, like 2002. --Irfanfaiz 00:33, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The Atlantic now seems to be speeding up in production. Alastor Moody _(talk) 02:49, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well September is the heart of the hurricane season.Reub2000 06:03, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Latest SSD position estimate returned T2.5 = 35 kt = 40 mph. – Ch acor 08:05, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Debby is only a 2.0. --Holderca1 14:36, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Still TD5 at 11am advisory, this one surprises me, thought it would have been upgraded based on Dvorak, guess they are waiting on the recon flight. --Holderca1 14:46, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

05L.ERNESTO

Ernesto now up!! -- WmE 18:42, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This is going to be unfortunate. It in a spot where it is going to hit something. Only hope is it fizzles out, but models don't seem to think so. --Holderca1 19:00, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Only the name's up at the moment. NRL hasn't issued a new image yet. Pobbie Rarr 19:02, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

What do you mean by a new image? --Holderca1 19:07, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

If you look on NRL, the image still says 05:NONAME with 30kt, though that should change very soon. Pobbie Rarr 19:11, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Are you talking about the forecast track? That won't update until the NHC comes out with their forecast. The satellite image says Ernesto on it. --Holderca1 19:14, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Oh it does now, they've just changed it. No problem. :) Pobbie Rarr 19:20, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Oh, God, don't tell me this is heading towards Louisiana... →Cyclone1→ 19:32, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

We simply don't know. It might not even develop that well if it catches up with the trough currently ahead of its path. Pobbie Rarr 19:38, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

True. Ernesto (If it intensifies) actually seems to have more of a proximity to strike Florida from the above track models. Wouldn't be as bad, espeacially if it's disrupted by our little saving grace. But, uh... that doesn't always save us... But, you're right, we're still waiting for formation. →Cyclone1→ 19:47, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Unfortunatly, it looks to me like it's heading towards New Orleans. Looks like it may be a strong one too. Hello32020 20:27, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Storm Ernesto

NHC has it up. Jamie|C 20:39, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Let's hope not. But, again, it's way to early to make predictions such as landfall in a particluar city. One model even has it turning sharply east when it gets to the keys and going south of Florida and into the open Atlantic. Who knows? →Cyclone1→ 20:50, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

There is a lot of uncertainty out that far, even when the models agree. --Holderca1 21:11, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

True. The Weather Channel has not even hinted at a hurricane yet, probably to keep down panic until it does (or if it does) become a hurricane. →Cyclone1→ 21:17, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I hate to make unnessessary predictions, but does anyone else think this will be another Charley?guitarhero777777 22:47, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I think everyone here is over-exaggerating at the moment. If the the upper-level low to the storm's NW doesn't move, then the system will very probably be sheared apart. The models have been quite inaccurate this season in terms of upper-level changes in the atmosphere, especially in regards to system like Chris (which was also suppose to be a major hurricane, but was sheared apart by an unanticipated atmospheric change). Although three of the four major models predict the low to move doesn't mean it will, but strangely enough even though the models predict the low to move and to bring a low-shear environment to Ernesto, they also dissipate it entirely. Dr. Masters seems to be suspicious of the NHCs intensity forecast and also sees dissipation as a major possibility. That being said, if the low does move and the environment improves, then we could very well have a major hurricane on our hands. We can start worrying 24 hours from now, and there is still the possibility it could be torn apart if it impacts the islands (bad for them!!!) or the Yucatan Peninsula. The great kawa 23:13, 25 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Let's just wait and see, I guess. →Cyclone1→ 01:38, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ernesto's track so far is rather reminiscent of Ivan's (which at this point was a Category 5). Each passing update seems to increase the chances that this will do something. The latest NHC discussion doesn't even mention the high-shear trough, but rather talks about the upper-level anticyclone expected to replace it. It's all looking rather ominous, and it could do anything at this moment in time. Still, threatening land it should be more notable than any of the previous four lacklustre Ernestos, all of which were fish-spinners and not one of which ever reached hurricane status. Pobbie Rarr 02:05, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow! Two storm names of the year (Beryl and Ernesto) have never had storms with the name reach hurricane strength. Wierd. guitarhero777777 03:11, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Two others will do that this year. Joyce and Leslie. Though to be fair they've not had many opportunites. SargeAbernathy 04:37, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Joyce has been used for a hurricane already. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 05:55, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

If we want an article split, here is a shell to work from: User:CrazyC83/Ernesto06 CrazyC83 05:22, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Recon is currently out in Ernesto. The latest vortex message shows a pressure of 999 mbar. I imagine the NHC is waiting on a few more recon obs to come in before issuing their 2 AM advisory. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 06:02, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And confirmed by the NHC in the 2 AM advisory. I've updated the article. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 06:13, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

We have a problem. The 5am update shows Ernesto having 100kt winds in 120 hours - and shows it will likely miss Cuba, which was their only hope for disruption and dissipation. I know this forecast is 5 days out, which is two days beyond their comfort zone, and it's another two days before landfall, but if it follows the five day path we are looking at a major hurricane striking anywhere from Houston to Pensacola. And yes, you know what city lies smack in the middle of that (though the present path takes it further west than New Orleans, but that's a seven day forecast - completely unreliable) From the 5am discussion: IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. --Golbez 09:30, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

GFDL takes it up Mobile Bay as a 135mph cat 4: [6] --Golbez 09:37, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Computer models are subject to large errors, so it may not be accurate to believe that. However, if you do, hurricane-force winds extend outward in frame 21 to New Orleans. – Ch acor 09:45, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Whoa, that model is pretty erie. →Cyclone1→ 11:26, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Very erie, indeed Hello32020 11:33, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ship has reported 52.1 knot winds in the SE quadrant of Ernesto, pressure at 29.71.... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=14.8N&lon1=70.2W&dist=250&time=3 Anung Mwka 12:27, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

But New Orleans would not get any of the storm surge in that scenario. --Holderca1 13:36, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

So? Storm surge wasn't exactly the issue with Katrina and Rita, either. --Golbez 13:49, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Storm surge was the issue with Katrina at least. It was mostly because of the storm surge that caused the levees and floodwalls to fail, thus flooding the city. --tomf688 (talk - email) 13:53, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

A 'backwards' storm surge, yes, but considering how easy it was for Rita to break the levees, and our continued trust in the ability of the federal government to do anything right, I wonder if even a glancing blow like to Mobile would be able to break the levee again.

Well, wait, let's talk about this. The problem with Katrina was winds pushing non-directionally; it's not that water was pushed south, it's just that the barge was bounced around the canal until it broke. Doesn't matter what direction the wind was blowing. So what happened with Rita again? Was it just having the weak, temporary levee? I blame this on having only 3 hours of sleep. --Golbez 14:04, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Its looking consistently better on satellite imagery. I'm surprised they didn't strengthen it on the last advisory, personally. bob rulz 15:43, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This could be another Katrina.... --CFIF ☎ 16:31, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Good effing grief. Can we PLEASE not make such silly statements? It's always better NOT to have another Katrina, even if it is plausible. – Ch acor 16:34, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I'm actually suprised that the major American news outlets (Fox, CNN, MSNBC) haven't blown this out of proportion yet with headlines like "On Anniversary, Another Katrina Forms". Personally, I hope this storm makes landfall (and it will make landfall) in Texas, where Bret in 1999 made landfall. That way, damage and loss of life will be minimalized. guitarhero777777 17:00, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

SSHHH! They might be listening! Don't give them ideas -Runningonbrains 19:06, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well I hate to say, but Ernesto seems to be a re-run of Katrina but I guess Louisiana may be much more prepared and waitiong for this storm. It also may be less destructive than what happened last year. Alastor Moody _(talk) 20:27, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

How can you say that? It is way to early to say anything. Katrina had much different conditions. Ernesto is more like Charley or Ivan, or it could be like Chantal or Claudette. It's too early to tell, and you shouldn't keep using the name Katrina like it is a simple term. Give the costliest hurricane in history a little respect. ;) Hurricanehink (talk) 20:33, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well good grief! Here we go critizing me again. So what, the NHC forecast models show it will peak as a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, so I gotta have a point. Alastor Moody _(talk) 22:00, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Please realize that going from some "models show it will peak as a major hurricane" to "re-run of Katrina" makes no sense at all and it's apparently getting people very annoyed. Please don't blow your predictions out of proportion, especially if it's obviously far too early to tell what will happen. —AySz88 \^-^ 02:47, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

If you want to make your silly predictions, there's plenty of off-Wikipedia areas you could go to. – Ch acor 04:23, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Chacor, I'm actually agreeing a little with CFIF. It would not take a strong storm to truly screw over New Orleans and parts of the gulf coast again. Another Katrina? No. Another Rita? Possibly, in terms of its effects on the central, rather than western, gulf coast. I too am very surprised the media isn't screaming about this one, but then again, they are being very on top of new developments. CNN virtually had a countdown this morning to the release of the 11am advisory. (Of course, CNN has a personal motive not found in any other network, since they are potentially in the path of any gulf storm). Oh well, we'll know more at 5pm. There was supposedly a HH flight at 2pm, so we should have the vortex soon. --Golbez 20:22, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Nevermind, the vortex is out; 40kt, which would make it a minimal tropical storm. --Golbez 20:25, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Its hardly a minimal tropical storm, not with winds 60mph and strengthening. --tomf688 (talk - email) 20:55, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

NHC still says its being sheared. Doesn't seem to be bothering Ernesto to badly. If it's strenthening this steadily with this much shear on it, and the shear is forecast to lessen, I shudder to think what could happen when this storm reaches a more favorable environment. Another thing: a tropical storm forecast to move in between Jamaica and Cuba and become a potentially dangerous hurricane. Remind anyone of Dennis? -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 21:20, 26 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This storm screams Frederick to me. But, it cannot be stressed enough about how young Ernie still is. →Cyclone1→ 00:56, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Don't underestimate the media just yet - Google news has Ernesto as the major news item, and 1,261 related news stories. Iorek85 01:03, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah Eric, it's changing from an Ivan-like path to a Dennis-like one. Looks very sinister indeed, trying to blend the worst of different storms. Of course it's still too early to tell, but the outlook just gets more eye-catching every time. Once the shear dissipates (as predicted it will tomorrow), we'll have a much better idea whether or not another monster is on its way. Pobbie Rarr 02:41, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like, for now, Naw'lins is safe. ernesto jolted north and the Weather Channel's cone for Ernesto has it crossing Cuba and becoming a Dennis, Georges, Fredieric, poser. I'll take it as opposed to another Kat. Alabama may need to highly moniter this. →Cyclone1→ 03:01, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I'd like the intensity forecast to continue to stay away from Dennis-ish proportions. Staying away from triple digits would be lovely. I love strong storms but they're like bears: they're fun to watch...through a long telephoto lens. It seems very contingint on the time it spends over Cuba. No offense to Castro, but we could use his island to weaken this storm up a bit. Come on, Cuba, take one for the team! -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 04:42, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

New NRL imagery shows 65 mph and 993 mbar. EDIT: NHC 5 am discussion out. Ernie is going thorugh rapid intensification with an eye forming. Haiti is now under a hurricane warning. In short...oh GREAT! Jake52 My talk 07:47, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Hurricane Ernesto

5:04 update - Hurricane. – Ch acor 09:15, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yahoo! now a hurricane! RoswellAtup 09:25, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Grrr. Hurricanes are not good. Stop cheering them. – Ch acor 10:23, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The track sends it into central Florida. It could be a monster over there, too. They might need... to... e... vacu... ... ate... (pauses)... wait, I live in central Florida! This sucks! →Cyclone1→ 12:11, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. [7] That's not good. --tomf688 (talk - email) 12:25, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That's not good at all. →Cyclone1→ 12:40, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Blech, it's heading right near me..... --CFIF ☎ 14:00, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Me too. →Cyclone1→ 15:32, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's going to spend a lot of time over land. Maybe it won't become a major hurricane before landfall. Good kitty 15:33, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The Discussion warns it could be a cat 3 on impact with florida. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 15:48, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And now it looks like it's going to make landfall in Nokomis, exactly where I live. :( --CFIF ☎ 15:53, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I'm not so sure with the projected path. Doesn't Ernesto have to go through some mountains in Cuba before it goes back to the warm Gulf waters? The projected path with Wednesday is really near to where I live (Fort Myers, Florida). Of course, a change in the projected path is nothing surprising it's just where it will end up at. This hurricane is ending up almost like 2004's Hurricane Charley. Douglasr007 15:59, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

While comparisons like this are generally looked down upon, I must say the similarity in the situations is frightening. At an angle like this, it could hit anywhere on the west coast of florida, and we've all seen how news agencies can be idiotic in not expressing the uncertainty in the exact landfall location. If it blows up like the NHC says it could after its disrupted by Cuba, it indeed could be another Charley. -Runningonbrains 16:30, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I'm a bit sceptical about the projected path, too. When I had checked on NHC's site around midnight, it still had it pointing at the Mobile/Pensacola area. It wouldn't be the first time they altered the path of Ernesto this much, so I wouldn't be surprised if they did it again. Devildiva 16:37, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Without wishing to tempt fate, the latest forecast track takes it right over Tampa Bay. Yeah, the comparisons with Dennis & Charley are frightening - Ernesto seems to be trying to blend the two. We'll just have to see how much it interacts with Cuba. Pobbie Rarr 16:53, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Doom and gloom from Jeff Masters:

The eye of Ernesto will pass just south of or over the southwestern tip of Haiti today,
pounding that impoverished nation with hurricane force winds and rains of up to 20  
inches. I expect the death toll will be in the hundreds.

Pobbie Rarr 17:06, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

(Damn edit conflicts! Can't get a word in edgewise around here!)

No surprise there. Amatuers like Jeff are notoriously melodramatic. The Accuweather guys are similar. Ernesto has plenty of warm water and fair skies ahead of it, but I doubt it will be able to take too much advantage of it because the storm is so close to land. It all depends on what Cuba does to it. It will have a golden opportunity to rapidly restrengthen. We just hope that Cuba will have given the storm a higher mountain to climb. Bottom line is I don't think that the best case scenario is all that great. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 17:25, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

A quick review of the Unisys records shows that this is the first hurricane to directly impact the area since Hurricane Georges, and that didnt turn out so well for Haiti. He may be right. -Runningonbrains 17:20, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Direct impacts on Haiti rarely turn out well, mavoso. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 17:27, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

We should keep our ears open for the latest reports from Haiti. Ernesto is bound to have some sort of impact there. Pobbie Rarr 17:39, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Sadly, it's the hurricanes that develop in the Caribbean Sea that do this pattern. Charley formed in the Caribbean. Ivan was almost similar but luckily changed course before hitting Cuba. Dennis did the same thing. If you remember with Charley, it was expected to hit the Tampa area but on the morning before making impact it moved a little northeast. Also, it went from a Category 2 to Category 4 just hours before landfall. Looking at the satellite images of this hurricane, it looks like a compact hurricane just like Charley was. This isn't a good case for those living on the West coast of Florida. Douglasr007 18:18, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

There are a lot of uncertainties at this point. I think it has weakened back to a tropical storm - for now - due to interaction (landfall?) with Haiti. Looking at Google Earth, we really have to watch the community of Les Cayes. Its population is about 50,000 and if a major mudslide hits there, that could turn a death toll in single digits into the hundreds or thousands. CrazyC83 18:26, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Could be a destructive hurricane, similar to Charley as of what happened in 2004. Fortunately, I live in California. Alastor Moody _(talk) 19:04, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Also, the NRL dosen't think this may be a Category 3, but rather a Category 2 because of Cuba. Also, I swear I saw Ernesto forming an eyewall. Alastor Moody _(talk) 19:09, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I see an eyewall myself, but I also believe the winds have subsided due to lack of convection. Unfortunately, the strongest rainfall is on the Haiti side...BTW, if it is destructive in Haiti, I would NOT move the page to Hurricane Ernesto since they have a poor track record on retiring hurricane names (take Gordon, for example). CrazyC83 19:30, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

That's because Ernesto is almost surrounded by land, although its still in the water. Also, I personally don't think this storm may be a very big brute, but it may peak as a Category 1 or 2 in the Loop Current or before running into Cuba. But the problem is about mudslides and flooding in Haiti and Cuba (possibly Florida too). Alastor Moody _(talk) 19:59, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Back to a tropical storm. Haiti is dry land, after all, and that's disrupting Ernesto's convection. Tito xd^(?!?) 21:03, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Cuba will likely not have a long lasting effect on Ernie (such as dissapation). Ernesto could still regenerate south of Florida before hitting the keys, so watch out, uh, key people. I think this will make landfall closer to Punta Gorda as opposed to Tampa bay and move up Highway 17 (like Chaz did). →Cyclone1→ 21:14, 27 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ernesto seems very susceptable to land interation. I think Cuba could quite possibly leave this storm in shambles. If it does, what's left of Ernesto is not going to have much water to work with. The 11 pm discussion alluded to the possibility that the forecast track could shift to the left. If that happens, Ernesto would spend more time over Cuba, that's good (unless you're in Cuba). But it would also spend more time over the warm waters of the Gulf and take aim at Tampa rather than Fort Myers, those are both very bad. So I think I'd rather that not happen and take my chances with the current forecast. Florida is going to get hit, the question is how hard? But, I will say that, all of a sudden, I feel much less threatened by this thing. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 04:26, 28 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well Ernesto dosen't seems to be much of the threat she used to be about two days ago. So I guess Cuba and Florida can relax a little. But they say Ernesto is headed to the highlands of Cuba, which it may be a good sign for some people. Also, did Ernesto make landfall in Haiti, or did its eyewall briefly touch the shoreline? Alastor Moody _(talk) 05:56, 28 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Poor, little Ernesto's LLC's gonna be torn to shreds as it appears he will pass right over a large part of the Cuban mountains(see here). We all saw what a small bit of Haiti did to him, a huge part of Cuba could completely destroy a struggling tropical cyclone. He is reintensifying though. But that probably won't help too much unless he explosively deepens. If the LLC survives the rugged terrain though, there is a fair shot of further intensification. The great kawa 07:42, 28 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well, recon's still out there, so there's a chance the NHC may not have the data in time for the 5 AM advisory. Meanwhile, there's a fairly large DT spread for Ernesto this morning: SAB says T4.0 (65 kt), CIMSS ADT says T3.0 (45 kt), and AFWA says T2.5 (35 kt). --Core des at talk. ^_^ 08:40, 28 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like Ernesto is about to clear Cuba. Miami could be in trouble if rapid intensification occurs. Pobbie Rarr 20:40, 28 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The NHC dosen't expects this to be over Category 3 status, if it re-develops. Alastor Moody _(talk) 21:25, 28 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I doubt there will be any rapid intensification, Ernesto doesn't have that much water or time to work with. -- §Hurricane E RIC § archive 21:25, 28 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well the NHC show Ernesto make become a hurricane again before hitting South Carolina, after running over Florida. But it won't be a major hurricane. Alastor Moody _(talk) 21:29, 28 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Regardless of whether it becomes a major hurricane, or even a hurricane at all, this stands to be a billion dollar storm, tracking along the gold coast of Florida. Best not anyone let their guards down. -Runningonbrains 00:22, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It looks like Ernesto is emerging from Cuba now if he hasn't already. I'm surprised he didn't weaken much at all over Cuba compared to the beating he took from Haiti (did he even make a Haitian landfall?) CrazyC83 23:58, 28 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It is kind of surprising. However, Ernesto still got ripped apart pretty bad by Cuba. Now that Ernesto is so weak, it is possible the center could reform somewhere else, which would make for a really bad day for all the forecasters out there. We would be back to square one in regards to the track forecast (we're already at square one when it comes to intensity forecasts). The great kawa 02:14, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It looks like Ernesto's remains are forecast to move into the mid-Atlantic, which is what is needed badly because there hasn't been any rain in weeks. --tomf688 (talk - email) 02:54, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's been quiet on this page lately...surprising... Anyway, I'm still watching and waiting for Ernesto. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 03:33, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

We are getting heaps and heaps and heaps of news reports of Ernesto hitting Florida, here in Australia! This is gonna be a really bad storm. RaNdOm26 11:20, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I doubt it. Ernesto has been a bit of a fizzle, thankfully. Iorek85 12:35, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Precisely. Yes, it has killed one person in Haiti but to be brutally frank by Haitian standards that's a real let-off - hundreds, even thousands could have died. As for the outlook, it may not even retain hurricane strength at all. This storm is definitely not worth all the hype the BBC have been giving it. The perceived wisdom at the moment is that since it's the anniversary of Katrina, Ernesto has to be catastrophic. I'll eat my hat if this storm has a major impact in Florida. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Pobbie Rarr (talk • contribs) 12:40, August 29, 2006 (UTC)

Coming from a Floridian, I'll eat my hat if it has a major impact on Florida. I'm just waiting for my school to make a decision about it. Granted it won't be striking us, but it'll give some wind and rain. And walking/biking/driving in hard rain and some wind isn't fun. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 16:41, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well, Florida dosen't seem to take any chances of Ernesto at whatever means, not only that, NASA even postponed its STS-115 space shuttle mission to the ISS, just to a measle tropical storm. I wouldn't mind if it was a hurricane now and they postponed it. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(talk + contribs + userboxes)} 18:20, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ernesto closed Polk schools, which does not anger me in the least bit! ;) Ernie probably wont be that bad, but it will be interesting. It is very organized lately. →Cyclone1→ 20:24, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Uh oh! Looks like Ernesto's TS wind speeds have already began to touch the Florida coastline. ~~She's still in full swing of making landfall within 6 hours.~~ --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(talk + contribs + userboxes)} 22:50, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Based on the recon reports and the satellite loops, Ernesto appears to be making that northward turn a little earlier than predicted by the NHC. It looks like it's moving more to the NNW now. It probably won't mean much in the long run, though. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 22:51, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Actually, I'll take it back, Ernesto already hit Florida. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(talk + contribs + userboxes)} 22:55, 29 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Now it's officially made landfall. bob rulz 07:47, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ernesto appears to be moving along the west coast. Hmm... →Cyclone1→ 14:31, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Down to Tropical Depression Ernesto. – Ch acor 14:50, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ernesto is a guy's name, Mad-Eye. 2006 Guys aren't as scary as the 2005 Girls, thankfully. Better that the powerful storms are in the Pac. —BazookaJoe 15:42, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I must say, it looks like we dodged a bullet. This thing has very intense and symmetric rainbands, with a decent inner core given that its being starved over land. South Carolina owes Florida a favor, because this thing likely would have been a major hurricane had it not been for land interaction. -Runningonbrains 16:53, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks unimpressive right now, but why is South Carolina still issuins a hurricane watch? --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(talk + contribs + userboxes)} 19:29, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It is possible lil' bro that Ernesto may still become a hurricane [again] when it reaches the Atlantic. It will definitely strngthen no doubt. StormChaser666 19:59, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Just to leat you all know, this storm had some good wind gusts last night. We were on Key Largo, on the beach during the landfall and were even included in the eye that lasted for appx. 26 minutes. The strongest GUSTS we recorded were 55 mph and 60 mph near 2030 HRZ(EST) last night. The highest 60 sec sustained wind that we recorded was 37 mph around the same time frame. We did see some minor tree damage as we drove around the coast this morning early, but no power outages. Although a cable network supposedly had an electrical fire that was unrelated to the storm so some MIA residents lost their precious TV, though that information was delivered by an ABC reporter who was unsure of the cause. We recorded about 6 inches of rain throughout out 22 hour stay at the Keys. One of our members, Seth, broke his foot whil running on a dock and one of the boards shattered...so did his foot. MORE TO COME...Btw, thanks Hink.StormChaser666 19:59, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Sounds like a fun atmospheric disturbance to be in. Except for the destruction/injuries. One of these days I'll come out of the bunker of Michigan to see one. —BazookaJoe 20:13, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

A while back I got some CAPITAL TYPE for posting something that belonged on another page so I moved the fmr comment that was here---(Still learning)StormChaser666 20:29, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Local models have this thing strengthening over land slightly. Right now we are seein 1001mb and the local model says it will continue on its more northern path for the next 6-8 hours. And exiting the state towards St, Augustine. Local rainfall levels are at about 3-5 inches and isolated tornadoes have been reported. No deaths or fatalities! YET. We are just about to leave (for we think Savannah) and should be there by 6 am. Btw, if anyone was wondering, Seth will be on crutches for like 2 weeks with a fracture in his something bone in his foot.--StormChaser666 21:27, 30 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Now Ernesto's emerged back into the Atlantic waters, the NHC calls for Ernesto to be a storm again. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(talk + contribs + userboxes)} 03:17, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Almost the moment it left land, it became a tropical storm once again. NHC update at 11:25 pm CrazyC83 03:58, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow it has been quiet here recently. I wonder if everybody went to the Wunderblogs, because that's where I'm going. More active there (which makes sense b/c it is a blog), however, Wikipedia will always be home (at least they don't have shouting matches here). The great kawa 08:00, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

You mean we dont have MANY shouting matches? Cryomaniac 17:40, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

There've been a fair amount of shouting matches here... - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 18:05, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Fine, fine. There are PLENTY of shouting matches here, but you have not seen anything until you have been to the other blogs. On a side note, we may have a landfalling Hurricane Ernesto. Winds are now up to 70 mph with a pressure of 993 mb.The great kawa 18:08, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It is turning into somewhat of a formidable system now. It seems to be almost paralleling the shore, so I don't see it making landfall until tonight at the earliest. It's actually getting a nice bit of central convection now, should be an eye before landfall. Who knows, it actually might become a hurricane. -Runningonbrains 18:22, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

One of my friends commented that we were lucky this wasn't a Gulf of Mexico Storm, but, at least to me, it looks like USA landfall was just barely enough west to be on the Gulf side of Florida. Does anyone have information on exactly where it made landfall, where the dividing line is and how far apart those points are? Naraht 18:53, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Actually it was neither an Atlantic or Gulf landfall, it was in the Straits of Florida when it hit. The US Gulf Coast is from Brownsville, TX to Cape Sable, FL and it made landfall east of Cape Sable. --Holderca1 19:48, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ernesto is now so close to landfall at S. Carolina, cause it was 5 mph short to its second-chance hurricane status. About half of its circulation is over land. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(talk + contribs + userboxes)} 21:48, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I think I see an Eye. íslenskur fellibylur #12 _(samtal) 23:21, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Apparently, the latest Vortex Data Message indicates 988mb, and 65kts, making Ernie a 'cane once again. -- RattleMan 23:44, 31 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]
...but not in time for the 8PM advisory. I bet they'll do an Update advisory. -- RattleMan 23:48, 31 August 2006 (UTC) I definitely see an eye [8]. Pobbie Rarr 00:11, 1 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Good thing this system doesn't have much time left on it's hands, or else who knows what might happpen. ~Pikachu9000 00:13, 1 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I dont know about on the satellite, but there's definately an eye in radar imagery -Runningonbrains 02:14, 1 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, I've been looking at the Wilmington radar too. It looks more like a rainfall gap than a properly-formed eye though. It's nearing landfall as well. Pobbie Rarr 02:25, 1 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ernesto is onshore now. Held at 70mph, but I would not be surprised to see a TCR upgrade to hurricane intensity. CrazyC83 04:02, 1 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that Ernesto was a hurricane at landfall, and I won't be shocked in the least if it's upgraded in the TCR. We're having tropical storm force winds all the way up here in Richmond, and we're still in the outer rain bands. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 13:25, 1 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Extratropical

Gone from NRL after becoming an impressive extratropical gale, though the latest HPC advisory still has it with some tropical characteristics for now. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 00:07, 2 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's now a tropical depression or just a tropical low? (I don't think it is extratropical) CrazyC83 01:36, 2 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's almost fully extratropical now. Most of the models show Ernesto losing its warm core (the only tropical characteristic it still has), and it's developed a front. Unfortunately, it's also stalled out over eastern Virginia, and that's causing extremely heavy rainfall over the eastern Mid-Atlantic. 10.43 inches in Virginia Beach, and 10.07 inches in Upper Sherando, on the other side of the state. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 08:59, 2 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It also has TS winds once again - last update had 50mph winds... CrazyC83 17:35, 2 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ex-Ernesto is now maybe a large supercell over New England. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(talk + contribs + userboxes)} 23:05, 2 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

We are just starting to get some rain from the remnants of Ernesto in Toronto.WotGoPlunk 03:51, 3 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Winds now down to 35 mph. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(talk + contribs + userboxes)} 07:16, 3 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]