Talk:2006–07 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/January

January

Week 1

96S.INVEST

Newly up on FNMOC and NRL at 10S 131E, Arafura Sea/Timor Sea. - SpLoT | '07 _(*C*+u+g) 15:17, 5 January 2007 (UTC)

BOM not expecting a tropical cyclone to develop within 3 days. RaNdOm26 06:41, 6 January 2007 (UTC)

06R.INVEST

97S.INVEST

18.6ºS 43.6ºE - 15 knots (west of Madagascar) - グリフオーザー 22:39, 5 January 2007 (UTC)

Looks like it might be from some part of ex-Clovis. -- RattleMan 01:20, 6 January 2007 (UTC)

Perturbation Tropicale 6

Tropical Disturbance 25 knots 1000 hPa - グリフオーザー 06:59, 8 January 2007 (UTC)

Week 2

98S.INVEST

10S 54E, 15kt. -- RattleMan 17:59, 7 January 2007 (UTC)

06F.INVEST

Tropical Depression 06F

13ºS 167ºW 1004 hPa moving slowly TC development currently not anticipated - グリフオーザー 03:53, 10 January 2007 (UTC)

Bad spelling error: MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKLED UP
THE SYSTEM BUT SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. – Chacor 12:33, 10 January 2007 (UTC)

13.5ºS 166.5ºW 1002 hPa - グリフオーザー 03:01, 12 January 2007 (UTC)

22.8ºS 152.1ºW 1002 hPa - グリフオーザー 21:58, 16 January 2007 (UTC)

22.0ºS 153.1ºW 1000 hPa, llcc exposed and is extratopical in nature. - グリフオーザー 00:33, 18 January 2007 (UTC)

99P.INVEST

Now on NRL as 99P, 13.9S 171.2W. --Coredesat 18:24, 10 January 2007 (UTC)

Gone from NRL and FNMOC. - SpLoT _(*C*+u+g) 11:15, 12 January 2007 (UTC)

99S.INVEST

New one at 15S 170E. - SpLoT _(*C*+u+g) 14:29, 10 January 2007 (UTC)

hmm South Indian Ocean? - グリフオーザー 15:24, 10 January 2007 (UTC)

No, South Pacific. Note proximity to IDL. - SpLoT _(*C*+u+g) 15:35, 10 January 2007 (UTC)

Probably an error. – Chacor 22:59, 10 January 2007 (UTC)

yep its an error, its been renamed 99PJason Rees 23:48, 10 January 2007 (UTC)

No it hasn't been renamed, they are different systems. – Chacor 02:23, 11 January 2007 (UTC)

90S.INVEST

New invest near 16.3S 39.9E. Looks pretty decent but is a bit less than halfway over land. --Coredesat 10:14, 11 January 2007 (UTC)

Now almost in Mozambique Channel. - SpLoT _(*C*+u+g) 11:22, 12 January 2007 (UTC)

Gone. --Coredesat 22:24, 14 January 2007 (UTC)

91S.INVEST

15.3S 126.4E - SpLoT _(*C*+u+g) 11:23, 12 January 2007 (UTC)

Looks nice, but it's already over land...--IrfanFaiz 13:34, 13 January 2007 (UTC)

Not expected to move offshore, so a tropical cyclone isn't likely. It will deliver monsoonal rain up to 200mm in the Kimberley. RaNdOm26 07:54, 14 January 2007 (UTC)

Week 3

92P.INVEST

10ºS 173ºW - グリフオーザー 03:42, 15 January 2007 (UTC)

Marine Bulletin:
WEAK LOW [1000 HPA] NEAR 12S 173W SLOW MOVING - グリフオーザー 19:51, 15 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance [1002 HPA] 12S 170W Slow Moving - グリフオーザー 21:56, 16 January 2007 (UTC)

Gone from NRL. --Coredesat 07:39, 17 January 2007 (UTC)

09P.ARTHUR [08F]

93P.INVEST

6.2S 179.9E - グリフオーザー 06:04, 16 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance Summary
Tropical Disturbance (NO NUMBER) 11.5ºS 176.0ºW 1001 hPa - グリフオーザー 07:27, 17 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08F

Center was located near 11.9S 176.4W Jason Rees 14:34, 21 January 2007 (UTC)

Lots of convection at the center. [1]--IrfanFaiz 13:39, 22 January 2007 (UTC)

Samoa Special Advisory:
Expect rain becoming more frequent and heavy with squally thunderstorms. Flooding including flooding of low lying coastal areas expected - グリフオーザー 06:53, 23 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Arthur

cyclone strength now with sustained winds of 35 to 40 knots near the center - グリフオーザー 18:49, 24 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Alert for Southern Cook Islands - グリフオーザー 19:29, 24 January 2007 (UTC)

An eyewall is developing in it's center [2]. --IrfanFaiz 22:29, 24 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Enforced [Southern Cook Is] -- グリフオーザー 02:05, 25 January 2007 (UTC)

94S.INVEST

12.8S 74E 1006 mb - グリフオーザー 07:43, 16 January 2007 (UTC)

-gone - グリフオーザー 07:43, 17 January 2007 (UTC)

It's still on FNMOC, but it's as good as gone. --Coredesat 07:46, 17 January 2007 (UTC)

94S.INVEST (new)

5.7ºS 91.1ºE 15 knots 1006 mb (new system) - グリフオーザー 08:21, 18 January 2007 (UTC)

Looks neat. [3] -- RattleMan 08:55, 18 January 2007 (UTC)

Well and truly gone. RaNdOm26 19:28, 25 January 2007 (UTC)

95S.INVEST

21.3ºS 38.6ºE 15 knots 1006 mb - グリフオーザー 21:54, 18 January 2007 (UTC)

96P.INVEST

15.0ºS 155.0ºW 15 knots - VOFFA

Gone. --Coredesat 02:59, 21 January 2007 (UTC)

97S.INVEST

21.0ºS 41.0ºE 15 knots - VOFFA

08P.ZITA [07F]

98S.INVEST

Just appeared, near 11.4S 165.6W. Looks pretty good. --Coredesat 02:59, 21 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 07F

TD 7F now (http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt)Jason Rees 21:43, 17 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07F

Tropical disturbance summary now notes as Tropical Depression - グリフオーザー 09:12, 18 January 2007 (UTC)

No tropical disturbance summary now. RaNdOm26 22:41, 18 January 2007 (UTC)

Thats wired no advisory from Figi. i just checked the australian site to see if they have got anything as they are the back up to Nadiand theres nothingJason Rees 00:15, 19 January 2007 (UTC)

3:30am UTC: tropical disturbance summary released again. - グリフオーザー 06:09, 19 January 2007 (UTC)

Looks pretty good [4] but i cant find anything at the RSMC Nadi website. --IrfanFaiz 23:22, 20 January 2007 (UTC)

Thats the problem with Nadi you dont know where the advisory will be unlike the NHC if theres no advisory on the stroms just go through the ndai homepage and look for a marine bulliten or go to the JTWC and the Central Pacfic Hurrcane center where applicableJason Rees 14:16, 21 January 2007 (UTC) EDIT yeah and 7F does look good Jason Rees 14:25, 21 January 2007 (UTC) There is a TCFA on this storm now so is this Zita ?Jason Rees 22:31, 21 January 2007 (UTC)

The latest JTWC bulletin said, wind shear is low over the center of the tropical depression and development maybe expected in the next 24 hours. --IrfanFaiz 23:05, 21 January 2007 (UTC)

I had to sort out some section woes due to confusion on RSMC Nadi - 93P is actually TD 08F; 98P is TD 07F. --Coredesat 01:44, 22 January 2007 (UTC)

TD 07F is being torn apart now, TD 08F looks ok to me. --IrfanFaiz 06:49, 22 January 2007 (UTC)

JTWC: issues tropical cyclone formation alert for this system (98P) - グリフオーザー 19:28, 22 January 2007 (UTC)

It looks better than before... looks like a Tropical Storm in satellite images. -IrfanFaiz 21:59, 22 January 2007 (UTC)

08P.NONAME

JTWC has issued warnings for this system. - グリフオーザー 23:44, 22 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Zita

Now Tropical Cyclone Zita from RSMC Nadi. First advisory is not yet out, but it's in the tropical disturbance summary. --Coredesat 00:05, 23 January 2007 (UTC)

Week 4

10S.DORA [07R]

99S.INVEST

Found it in FNMOC and NRL, so I've put it in. 15 knots. Location? RaNdOm26 19:28, 25 January 2007 (UTC)

Location just appeared, 8.0S 70.7E. --Coredesat 23:42, 25 January 2007 (UTC)

Earlier today NRL posted 90S using nearly the same region as this disturbance. - グリフオーザー 05:50, 26 January 2007 (UTC)

1800z JTWC - グリフオーザー 22:25, 26 January 2007 (UTC)
Area of convection near 7.3ºS 68.4ºE or 235 nm west of Diego Garcia. The imagery shows a consolidating low level with weak convective banding on the northeast and southwest periphery of the low level circulation center. Analysis shows the disturbance is within favorable region that should help maintain a deep convection with low vertical wind shear.
maximum sustained winds is 15 to 20 knots with a center pressure of 1008 mb. development of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone is poor.

Perturbation Tropicale (07-20062007)

0630am: 7.9S 66.7E - 20 knots 1003 hPa -- グリフオーザー 07:11, 28 January 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 10S

on NRL now84.9.51.41 18:46, 28 January 2007 (UTC)

Tempête Tropicale Moderée Dora

Named Dora. – Chacor 14:31, 29 January 2007 (UTC)

Forte Tempête Tropicale Dora

12:00am UTC: 50 knots 985 hPa - グリフオーザー 01:05, 30 January 2007 (UTC)

Cyclone Tropical Dora

0600 UTC: 70 65 kt, 970 hPa. Expected to strengthen a little, then weaken over the next 72 hours. --Coredesat 07:45, 1 February 2007 (UTC)

Dora's eye is began to become slightly more rounder on VIS images. I don't seem to understand the advisories by Meteo France. --IrfanFaiz 12:56, 1 February 2007 (UTC)

Maybe because they're not in English. Yes, I'm being sarcastic. Here's their broken English equivalent advisory: [5] – Chacor 14:08, 1 February 2007 (UTC)

Cyclone Tropical Intense Dora

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL 
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE DORA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 942 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES:  18.1 SUD / 67.9 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST).

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.5/5.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT
 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE ANNULAR CYCLONE WHICH DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME COOLER AND EYE WARMER IMAGE AFTER IMAGE (AMSU 0909S
, 1047Z, SSMI 1355Z, SSMIS 1557Z).

[6]. NRL has it as 115kt. -- RattleMan 18:58, 2 February 2007 (UTC)

Annular? wow... --IrfanFaiz 02:17, 3 February 2007 (UTC)

90P.INVEST

6.0S 179.9W, 15 kt and no pressure. --Coredesat 22:04, 26 January 2007 (UTC)

11.1S, 170W, 15kt, 1006mb, looks interesting. – Chacor 14:29, 29 January 2007 (UTC)

Week 5

91S.INVEST

19.7S 49.2E, appears to be over land. --Coredesat 03:02, 28 January 2007 (UTC)

Not in NRL.... RaNdOm26 03:45, 29 January 2007 (UTC)

It was a quick "here and gone" invest. -- RattleMan 03:51, 29 January 2007 (UTC)

92P.INVEST

11.5S 140.6E, 15kt, 1006mb. -- RattleMan 21:14, 28 January 2007 (UTC)

BOM doesn't expect any development of a tropical cyclone within 3 days. RaNdOm26 03:45, 29 January 2007 (UTC)

JTWC poor. – Chacor 09:52, 29 January 2007 (UTC)

Now at 14.2S, 143.5E (over the Cape York Peninsula). Still POOR from JTWC. BOM:

An active monsoon trough lies over central Cape York Peninsula and through the
western Coral Sea. At the present time there are no significant tropical lows
embedded in this trough, however computer models point to the development of a
significant tropical low over the western Coral Sea by Friday.
The potential for a tropical cyclone to develop before Friday is low. – Chacor 13:10, 30 January 2007 (UTC)

93S.INVEST

14.8S 128.3E, 15kt, 1006mb. -- RattleMan 21:14, 28 January 2007 (UTC)

Same as above. RaNdOm26 03:45, 29 January 2007 (UTC)

Looks almost dead now. – Chacor 14:30, 29 January 2007 (UTC)

94S.INVEST

Newly up, 18.3S, 41.1E, 15kt. Just off the western Madagascar coast. – Chacor 14:30, 29 January 2007 (UTC)

12P.NELSON

95P/95S.INVEST

12.0S 132.3E, between Arafura and Timor Sea, near Darwin. - SpLoT // 08:23, 30 January 2007 (UTC)

NRL now has a 95S (same system), as well as 95P, listed. FMNOC has only 95S. – Chacor 13:17, 30 January 2007 (UTC)

TCWC Darwin Tropical Low

A weak tropical low, 1006 hPa, is situated over Melville Island. The low is expected to move slowly east and gradually deepen during the next three days.
If the low moves offshore, the potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone in the southern Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria is estimated to be:
Wednesday: low,
Thursday: low,
Friday: moderate.

– Chacor 13:05, 30 January 2007 (UTC)

A developing TROPICAL LOW, 1003 hPa situated north of the Arnhem coast near or about 100 km north of Milingimbi.

Potential of TC Development Outlook
Today-Thursday = low
Friday = Moderate
Saturday = Moderate to High —The preceding unsigned comment was added by VOFFA (talk • contribs).

Tropical Cyclone Advise #1
11.3ºS 135.6ºE - 25 knots 1001 hPa

A CYCLONE WATCH is now current from Elcho Island to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.
- グリフオーザー 08:19, 31 January 2007 (UTC)

TCFA. --Coredesat 07:42, 1 February 2007 (UTC)

Deepened to 998 hPa per the latest marine bulletin, expected to become a TC within 18-24 hours. --Coredesat 22:59, 1 February 2007 (UTC)

JTWC cancels TCFA, Darwin still forecasts that low may form into a tropical cyclone in 18 hours. - グリフオーザー 05:43, 3 February 2007 (UTC)

Seems to be redeveloping, and it's huge. [7]--IrfanFaiz 22:16, 3 February 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Nelson

cyclone moved into Brisbane Area of Responsibility and was named "Nelson" with a low pressure of 992hpa. - グリフオーザー 22:18, 5 February 2007 (UTC)

Brisbane put Nelson near Cairns with max wind 25kt at T+48. I wonder if it will redevelop in the Pacific.[8] The wind/gust problem caused a number of questions last season. Having the technical summary, I hope it would be clearar.

Now a Cat. 2 - Strongest of the season in Australia so far! Looks like it might cross into the Coral Sea, looking at the forecast track map. RaNdOm26 11:41, 6 February 2007 (UTC)

Interestingly, the system to cross Corol Sea is considered as a new low.Momoko 04:45, 7 February 2007 (UTC)