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Pre-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election

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The following is the pre-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election. It is based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green.[1] Members in italics will not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently hold or its replacement. However, the current member for Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons will move to contest the seat of Kiama.[2] By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Liberal/National seats (46)
Marginal
East Hills Wendy Lindsay LIB 0.1%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell[a] NAT 0.5%[b]
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB 0.6%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 3.1%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 5.0%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 5.7%
Fairly safe
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons[c] LIB 6.0%
Wollondilly Nathaniel Smith LIB 6.0% v IND[d]
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB 6.2%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB 6.5%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 6.8%
Camden Peter Sidgreaves LIB 7.3%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB 8.9%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT 9.3%
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 9.7%
Safe
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB 10.6%
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 10.8%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB 11.1% v IND[e]
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB 11.3%
Monaro Nichole Overall[f] NAT 11.6%[g]
Kiama Gareth Ward (IND) LIB 12.0%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 12.3%
Drummoyne John Sidoti (IND) LIB 13.6%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 14.4%
Clarence Chris Gulaptis NAT 14.5%
Manly James Griffin LIB 14.6%
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 14.7%
Oxley Melinda Pavey NAT 15.4%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB 15.9%
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB 16.6%
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB 16.9%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 17.9%
Very safe
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT 18.1%
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB 19.0%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 19.6%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams (LIB) NAT 20.1%
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB 20.6%
Willoughby Tim James[h] LIB 20.7%[i]
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB 21.9%
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB 22.4%
Castle Hill David Elliott[j] LIB 22.4%
Kellyville Ray Williams[k] LIB 23.1%
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB 24.8%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT 26.6%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 28.0%
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT 33.2%
Labor seats (38)
Marginal
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 0.1%
Leppington new seat ALP 1.5%
Heathcote Lee Evans (LIB) ALP 1.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 2.0%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 2.3%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 3.0%
Bega Michael Holland[l] ALP 5.1%[m]
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li[n] ALP 5.2%[o]
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 5.3%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 5.8%
Fairly safe
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 7.1%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 8.3%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 8.6%
Granville Julia Finn ALP 9.4%
Safe
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 10.0%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 10.6%
Wyong David Harris ALP 12.9%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 13.1%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 13.6%
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP 13.7%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 14.7%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 14.9%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP 15.3%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 15.3%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 16.0%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP 16.7%
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP 16.8%
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP 17.4%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 17.5%
Very safe
Keira Ryan Park ALP 18.2%
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 18.4%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 18.5%
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP 19.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 19.7%
Bankstown Jihad Dib[p] ALP 20.5%
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 21.6%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 22.9%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 25.8%
Crossbench seats (9)
Marginal
Murray Helen Dalton (IND) SFF 2.8% v NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 4.9% v NAT
Fairly safe
Barwon Roy Butler (IND) SFF 6.6% v NAT
Safe
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN 10.0% v ALP
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 11.4% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 11.8% v LIB
Orange Philip Donato (IND) SFF 15.2% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 15.5% v NAT
Very safe
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 23.2% v ALP

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
  2. ^ While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is National 0.5%, the result of the 2021 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for The Nationals.
  3. ^ Melanie Gibbons will contest the seat of Kiama.
  4. ^ The alternative two-party-preferred margin after redistribution is LIB 14.2% v ALP.
  5. ^ The alternative two-party-preferred margin based on 2019 results is LIB 17.8% v ALP.
  6. ^ Nichole Overall was elected to the district of Monaro in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of John Barilaro.
  7. ^ While the margin based on 2019 results is 11.6%, with Monaro's boundaries unchanged by the redistribution, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.2% for the Nationals.
  8. ^ Tim James was elected to the district of Willoughby in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Gladys Berejiklian.
  9. ^ While the redistributed two-party-preferred margin based on 2019 results would be Liberal 20.7%, the result of the 2022 by-election conducted in the old boundaries was a margin of 3.3% for the Liberals versus independent Larissa Penn.
  10. ^ The new Castle Hill largely replaces Elliott's seat of Baulkham Hills. A new seat named Kellyville has been created to replace the seat that formerly held the name of Castle Hill.
  11. ^ Kellyville largely replaces Williams's seat of Castle Hill. A different seat named Castle Hill has been created to replace Baulkham Hills.
  12. ^ Michael Holland was elected to the district of Bega in the February 2022 by-election after the resignation of Andrew Constance.
  13. ^ The margin used in the pendulum is Labor’s winning margin from the February 2022 by-election, which the Labor Party won with a margin of 5.1%. The margin based on 2019 election results is Liberal 6.9%. Bega's boundaries were unchanged by the redistribution.
  14. ^ Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected to the district of Strathfield in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Jodi McKay.
  15. ^ While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is Labor 5.2%, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the Labor Party.
  16. ^ Bankstown largely replaces Dib's seat of Lakemba. The seat that formerly held the name of Bankstown was abolished.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Green, Antony (2023-01-08). "Electoral Pendulum for the 2023 NSW Election – Antony Green's Election Blog". Retrieved 2023-01-22.
  2. ^ Smith, Alexandra; Cormack, Lucy (2023-03-07). "Dumped Liberal MP Gibbons set to take on Ward in shock move". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2023-03-08.