Post-election pendulum for the 2006 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2006 Victorian state election.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Labor seats Marginal Mount Waverley Maxine Morand ALP 0.3% Gembrook Tammy Lobato ALP 0.7% Forest Hill Kirstie Marshall ALP 0.8% Melbourne Bronwyn Pike ALP v GRN 1.9% Mitcham Tony Robinson ALP 2.0% South Barwon Michael Crutchfield ALP 2.3% Frankston Alistair Harkness ALP 3.2% Mordialloc Janice Munt ALP 3.5% Brunswick Carlo Carli ALP v GRN 3.6% Prahran Tony Lupton ALP 3.6% Richmond Richard Wynne ALP v GRN 3.6% Burwood Bob Stensholt ALP 3.7% Ripon Joe Helper ALP 4.3% Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 5.4% Fairly safe Bentleigh Rob Hudson ALP 6.3% Ballarat West Karen Overington ALP 6.5% Eltham Steve Herbert ALP 6.5% Ballarat East Geoff Howard ALP 6.6% Carrum Jenny Lindell ALP 6.7% Monbulk James Merlino ALP 6.7% Seymour Ben Hardman ALP 6.7% Bellarine Lisa Neville ALP 7.9% Yan Yean Danielle Green ALP 7.9% Altona Jill Hennessy ALP 7.9% Macedon Joanne Duncan ALP 8.2% Geelong Ian Trezise ALP 8.3% Northcote Fiona Richardson ALP v GRN 8.5% Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP 9.2% Albert Park Martin Foley ALP 9.5% Safe Ivanhoe Craig Langdon ALP 10.4% Bendigo West Bob Cameron ALP 10.6% Narre Warren South Judith Graley ALP 10.9% Niddrie Rob Hulls ALP 11.2% Cranbourne Jude Perera ALP 11.3% Essendon Judy Maddigan ALP 11.7% Oakleigh Ann Barker ALP 12.4% Tarneit Tim Pallas ALP 12.5% Melton Don Nardella ALP 13.5% Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 15.1% Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 15.8% Lara John Eren ALP 17.9% Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP 18.7% Keilor George Seitz ALP 19.4% Very safe Yuroke Liz Beattie ALP 20.2% Clayton Hong Lim ALP 20.3% Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 20.8% Lyndhurst Tim Holding ALP 21.5% Pascoe Vale Christine Campbell ALP 22.8% Derrimut Telmo Languiller ALP 24.3% Williamstown Wade Noonan ALP 24.3% Footscray Bruce Mildenhall ALP 24.7% Preston Robin Scott ALP 25.3% Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP 25.6% Thomastown Peter Batchelor ALP 31.1% Broadmeadows John Brumby ALP 31.9%

Liberal/National seats Marginal Ferntree Gully Nick Wakeling LIB 0.04% Kilsyth David Hodgett LIB 0.4% Hastings Neale Burgess LIB 1.0% Morwell Russell Northe NAT 2.2% Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB 2.7% Evelyn Christine Fyffe LIB 2.8% Bayswater Heidi Victoria LIB 2.9% South-West Coast Denis Napthine LIB 4.0% Box Hill Robert Clark LIB 5.2% Bass Ken Smith LIB 5.5% Fairly safe Caulfield Helen Shardey LIB 7.6% Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 7.7% Doncaster Mary Wooldridge LIB 8.1% Bulleen Nicholas Kotsiras LIB 8.4% Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB 8.7% Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 9.0% Nepean Martin Dixon LIB 9.4% Kew Andrew McIntosh LIB 9.6% Safe Polwarth Terry Mulder LIB 10.7% Brighton Louise Asher LIB 10.9% Scoresby Kim Wells LIB 11.2% Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 11.3% Mornington David Morris LIB 11.9% Hawthorn Ted Baillieu LIB 12.3% Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT 15.8% Benalla Bill Sykes NAT 17.5% Very safe Mildura Peter Crisp NAT 20.7% Murray Valley Ken Jasper NAT 21.8% Lowan Hugh Delahunty NAT 22.1% Swan Hill Peter Walsh NAT 23.4% Shepparton Jeanette Powell NAT 24.7% Rodney Paul Weller NAT 24.8% Independents Gippsland East Craig Ingram IND v LIB 9.1%

References

• Green, Antony (July 2007). "2006 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results" (PDF). ABC Election Unit. Retrieved 31 December 2011.