Post-election pendulum for the 1999 Victorian state election
The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1999 Victorian state election.
"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.
| Labor seats | Liberal-National seats | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seat | Margin | Swing | Seat | Margin | Swing | |||
| Broadmeadows | 24.7 | -0.4 | ||||||
| Thomastown | 23.9 | +1.9 | ||||||
| Coburg | 21.8 | +4.9 | Malvern | 16.6 | +1.0 | |||
| Sunshine | 20.2 | +1.1 | Murray Valley | 15.9 | +6.5 | |||
| Preston | 18.6 | +3.3 | Rodney | 15.7 | +10.5 | |||
| Williamstown | 18.5 | +2.9 | Brighton | 15.6 | +2.5 | |||
| Footscray | 17.6 | -1.8 | Wimmera 1 | 15.1 | * | |||
| Richmond | 16.2 | -1.1 | Hawthorn | 14.1 | -0.5 | |||
| Northcote | 16.1 | -3.8 | Kew | 13.8 | +1.2 | |||
| Mill Park | 15.8 | +1.9 | Warrandyte | 13.5 | +0.4 | |||
| Pascoe Vale | 14.9 | +3.8 | Doncaster | 13.3 | +1.7 | |||
| Altona | 14.7 | +6.5 | Glen Waverley | 13.2 | +2.5 | |||
| Melbourne | 13.8 | -2.1 | Sandringham | 12.5 | +1.8 | |||
| Keilor | 11.9 | +0.3 | Wantirna | 11.9 | +1.2 | |||
| Clayton | 11.7 | +2.1 | Bulleen | 11.6 | +3.0 | |||
| Werribee | 11.5 | +0.8 | Mooroolbark | 10.9 | +1.3 | |||
| Melton | 11.3 | -0.9 | Frankston | 10.7 | +4.7 | |||
| Bendigo West | 11.3 | +9.1 | Polwarth | 10.7 | -2.6 | |||
| Geelong North | 10.9 | +2.8 | Evelyn | 9.5 | +3.2 | |||
| Springvale | 10.8 | +2.9 | Warrnambool | 8.8 | +5.0 | |||
| Morwell | 8.9 | +6.2 | Caulfield | 8.5 | +0.8 | |||
| Essendon | 8.5 | +5.1 | Box Hill | 7.6 | +2.7 | |||
| Dandenong North | 8.0 | +5.8 | Gippsland South | 7.5 | +11.9 | |||
| Gippsland East 2 | 7.7 | * | Benalla | 7.4 | +7.9 | |||
| Niddrie | 6.8 | +2.4 | Knox | 7.3 | +0.6 | |||
| Albert Park | 6.4 | -2.4 | Forest Hill | 7.1 | +3.4 | |||
| Mildura 3 | 6.1 | * | Benambra | 7.1 | +7.9 | |||
| Bundoora | 6.1 | +3.5 | Burwood | 6.8 | +1.8 | |||
| Dandenong | 5.8 | +2.4 | Pakenham | 6.5 | +4.6 | |||
| Ivanhoe | 5.4 | +3.9 | Dromana | 6.2 | +1.9 | |||
| Frankston East | 4.6 | +7.7 | Bennettswood | 6.1 | +3.1 | |||
| Yan Yean | 4.2 | +2.6 | Mornington | 5.7 | +5.6 | |||
| Gippsland West 4 | 3.9 | * | Cranbourne | 5.7 | +3.4 | |||
| Tullamarine | 3.8 | +7.0 | Berwick | 5.0 | +0.4 | |||
| Ballarat East | 3.7 | +4.7 | South Barwon | 4.7 | +5.5 | |||
| Oakleigh | 3.3 | +3.4 | Bayswater | 4.7 | +2.8 | |||
| Bendigo East | 2.9 | +7.9 | Portland | 4.5 | +5.9 | |||
| Ripon | 2.6 | +7.2 | Shepparton 5 | 4.1 | * | |||
| Narracan | 2.5 | +4.1 | Prahran | 4.0 | +0.6 | |||
| Gisborne | 1.6 | +9.4 | Eltham | 3.6 | +3.3 | |||
| Ballarat West | 1.0 | +5.8 | Monbulk | 3.2 | +2.0 | |||
| Seymour | 0.7 | +4.9 | Swan Hill 6 | 2.8 | * | |||
| Mitcham | 0.5 | +5.8 | Mordialloc | 2.2 | +2.5 | |||
| Carrum | 0.2 | +1.3 | Bentleigh | 1.9 | +2.8 | |||
| Geelong | 0.0 | +3.5 | Bellarine | 1.7 | +3.8 | |||
Notes
[edit]Seats which changed hands are shown in bold.
A plus (+) sign in front of a swing figure indicates a swing towards Labor and a minus (-) sign indicates a swing to the Liberal-National parties.
- 1 No swing figure is available for this seat due to the lack of a Labor versus Liberal-National margin at the previous election.
- 2 The margin for this seat is Independent (Craig Ingram) over National.
- 3 The margin for this seat is Independent (Russell Savage) over Liberal.
- 4 The margin for this seat is Independent (Susan Davies) over Liberal.
- 5 The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Chris Hazelman).
- 6 The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Carl Ditterich).
References
[edit]- Green, Antony (June 2001). "1999 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results" (PDF). ABC Election Unit. Retrieved 24 December 2011.