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Opinion polling for the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election

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This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. Rating figures are in percentages.

Graphical summary

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Local regression of polls conducted since 2023

Opinion poll data

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After candidate registrations

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Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Lai-Hsiao
DPP 		Hou-Jaw
KMT 		Ko-Wu
TPP 		Others
Undecided 		Lead
3 January 2024 Publication of election polls forbidden until after the election.[1]
ETtoday 31 December 2023–1 January 2024 1,557 38.9% 35.8% 22.4% 2.8% 3.1%
Mirror Media 30–31 December 2023 1,099 35.6% 24.1% 24.2% 16.2% 11.4%
ETtoday 1,295 35.4% 33.4% 22.1% 3.1% 2%
TVBS 30 December 2023 1,407 33% 30% 24% 13% 3%
udn 26–30 December 2023 1,215 32% 27% 21% 20% 5%
FTNN 26–29 December 2023 1,200 35.8% 27.3% 22.1% 14.8% 8.5%
QuickseeK 1,285 33.7% 23.7% 27.7% 14.8% 10%
RW News 25–29 December 2023 12,409 36.89% 32.83% 28.64% 1.63% 4.06%
ETtoday 27–28 December 2023 1,740 36.6% 33.8% 22.2% 7.4% 2.8%
TVBS 22–28 December 2023 1,074 37% 33% 22% 9% 4%
SETN 26–27 December 2023 1,095 30.9% 27.9% 23.8% 17.5% 3%
ETtoday 25–26 December 2023 1,618 38.1% 34.8% 19.2% 7.8% 3.3%
Mirror Media 24–25 December 2023 1,081 33.3% 26.5% 23.2% 17.0% 6.8%
CMMedia 23–25 December 2023 1,066 29.5% 22.7% 27.8% 20.1% 1.7%
TPOF 22–24 December 2023 1,076 32.4% 28.2% 24.6% 14.8% 4.2%
Formosa 20–21 December 2023 1,070 38.2% 33.9% 16.1% 11.7% 4.3%
ETtoday 1,217 36.2% 34.8% 20.7% 8.2% 1.4%
TVBS 15–21 December 2023 1,840 33% 32% 24% 11% 1%
QuickseeK 17–20 December 2023 1,288 32.5% 27.2% 26.7% 13.6% 5.3%
udn 13–17 December 2023 1,250 31% 31% 21% 17% Tie
Z.Media 15–16 December 2023 1,213 31.4% 29.6% 20.5% 18.5% 1.8%
ETtoday 14–15 December 2023 1,300 38.5% 35.1% 19.6% 6.8% 3.4%
SETN 11–12 December 2023 1,000 34.7% 28.8% 21.2% 15.3% 5.9%
TVBS 5–12 December 2023 1,632 36% 32% 22% 9% 4%
Mirror Media 10–11 December 2023 1,075 33.5% 25.2% 23.7% 17.5% 8.3%
Formosa 27–28 November 2023 1,076 36.6% 30.5% 17.7% 15.3% 6.1%
RW News 24–28 November 2023 12,041 41.12% 31.05% 25.31% 2.52% 10.07%
TVBS 24–26 November 2023 1,744 34% 31% 23% 12% 3%
udn 1,238 31% 29% 21% 20% 2%
ETtoday 24 November 2023 1,348 34.8% 32.5% 21.2% 11.6% 2.3%

Before candidate registrations

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Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Lai
DPP 		Hou
KMT 		Ko
TPP 		Gou
IND. 		Others
Undecided 		Lead
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws his candidacy.[2]
Formosa 24–25 October 2023 1,070 32.5% 21.9% 20.4% 5.3% 19.9% 10.6%
1,070 33.7% 24.6% 23.9% — 17.8% 9.1%
TVBS 18–24 October 2023 1,447 33% 22% 24% 8% 14% 11%
34% 26% 29% — 10% 5%
TPOF 15–17 October 2023 1,080 26.5% 20.2% 21.7% 12.4% 19.1% 6.3%
1,080 29.7% 21.1% 25.6% — 23.6% 4.1%
Mirror Media 14–16 October 2023 1,072 32.3% 17.8% 23.2% 9.2% 17.4% 9.1%
1,072 32.1% 18.7% 24.8% — 24.4% 7.3%
SETN 1–3 October 2023 1,000 30.9% 17.8% 24.2% 11.6% 15.5% 6.7%
1,000 32.2% 20.0% 26.8% — 21.1% 5.4%
TVBS 22–26 September 2023 1,127 34% 21% 22% 9% 14% 12%
36% 26% 28% — 11% 9%
Mirror Media 23–24 September 2023 1,096 34.5% 16.5% 24.1% 8.5% 16.3% 10.4%
1,096 33.3% 16.4% 28.0% — 22.3% 5.3%
FTNN 19–24 September 2023 2,402 34.3% 16.3% 18.6% 9.1% 21.7% 12.6%
FTNN 2,402 34.9% 16.8% 20.8% — 27.5% 7.4%
CMMedia 18–22 September 2023 1,213 27.9% 12.6% 22.4% 12.5% 24.6% 3.3%
Formosa 20–21 September 2023 1,072 37.3% 19.7% 16.9% 7.4% 18.7% 17.6%
1,072 40.0% 22.4% 21.6% — 15.9% 17.6%
TPOF 18–20 September 2023 1,077 31.4% 15.7% 23.1% 10.5% 19.4% 8.3%
1,077 33.4% 17.2% 27.4% — 22.1% 6%
TVBS 28 August – 1 September 2023 1,273 30% 19% 23% 14% 13% 7%
28 August 2023 Terry Gou declares his candidacy.[3]
Mirror Media 27–28 August 2023 1,083 33.4% 15.3% 22.7% 12.9% 15.7% 10.7%
1,083 34.3% 16.2% 27.1% — 22.4% 7.2%
Formosa 23–24 August 2023 1,070 40.1% 15.6% 16.6% 12.0% 15.8% 23.5%
1,070 42.5% 17.0% 21.1% — 19.3% 21.4%
TVBS 21–24 August 2023 1,171 37% 22% 28% — 13% 9%
QuickseeK 17–21 August 2023 1,222 35.6% 16.2% 24.4% 12.4% 11.4% 11.2%
1,222 35.8% 17.9% 29.6% — 16.6% 6.2%
TPOF 14–15 August 2023 1,081 43.4% 13.6% 26.6% — 16.3% 16.8%
FTNN 9–13 August 2023 2,402 31.2% 14.8% 19.5% 11.8% 22.7% 8.5%
2,402 33.4% 15.9% 23.2% — 27.4% 6%
TVBS 24–26 July 2023 1,618 33% 25% 32% — 10% 1%
Formosa 24–25 July 2023 1,071 33.1% 17.3% 20.7% 12.8% 16.1% 12.4%
1,071 35.1% 19.9% 24.0% — 20.4% 11.1%
1,071 33.8% 17.4% — 30.7%[4] 18.1% 3.1%
TPOF 17–18 July 2023 1,088 36.4% 20.2% 27.8% — 15.7% 8.6%
TPOF 1,088 33.9% 18.0% 20.5% 15.2% 12.4% 13.4%
FTNN 11–16 July 2023 2,409 28.0% 12.4% 20.4% 14.4% 24.8% 3.2%
FTNN 2,409 30.2% 15.3% 25.4% — 29.1% 1.1%
QuickseeK 7–10 July 2023 1,178 34.8% 19.3% 30.8% — 15.0% 4%
1,178 32.8% — 27.7% 24.5% 15.0% 5.1%
1,178 33.8% 17.0% — 35.6%[4] 13.6% 1.8%
Z.Media 1–2 July 2023 1,079 29.8% 15.2% 24.4% 14.0% 16.2% 5.4%
1,079 32.0% 16.3% — 35.8%[4] 15.5% 3.8%
1,079 29.9% 16.0% 29.8% — 23.8% 0.1%
NCPF 30 June – 2 July 2023 1,075 31% 15% 19% 15% 20% 11%
1,075 34% 17% 25% — 24% 9%
CNEWS 28 June – 1 July 2023 1,816 29.3% 18.5% 30.8% — 21.4% 1.5%
Formosa 28–29 June 2023 1,070 33.3% 15.6% 20.9% 15.4% 14.8% 12.4%
1,070 35.9% 17.1% 28.6% — 18.4% 7.3%
BCC-Gallup 16–20 June 2023 1,083 31.89% 17.93% 24.62% — 21.97% 7.28%
TVBS 14–16 June 2023 1,080 30% 23% 33% — 14% 3%
TPOF 12–13 June 2023 1,080 36.5% 20.4% 29.1% — 14.0% 7.4%
CNEWS 31 May – 1 June 2023 1,077 35.7% 25.9% 24.9% — 13.5% 9.8%
Formosa 29–30 May 2023 1,072 35.4% 22.6% 25.5% — 16.5% 9.9%
Formosa 24–25 May 2023 1,072 35.8% 18.3% 25.9% — 20% 9.9%
NCPF 22–24 May 2023 1,082 34% 23% 23% — 20% 11%
Fount Media 22–23 May 2023 1,074 26.6% 24.7% 21.1% — 27.6% 1.9%
SETN 17–18 May 2023 1,080 29.8% 29.2% 20.8% — 20.2% 0.6%
TVBS 17–18 May 2023 1,444 27% 30% 23% — 20% 3%

Issue polling

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Pollster Fieldwork date Sample problem Sample size Lai
DPP 		Hou
KMT 		Ko
TPP 		Gou
IND. 		Others
Undecided 		Lead
ETtoday 10–16 October 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,582 34.7% 27.4% 25.5% — 12.3% 7.3%
RW News 10–14 October 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 11,055 42.62% 22.29% 24.93% 5.86% 4.30% 17.69%
11,055 42.85% 22.87% 26.09% — 8.20% 16.76%
udn 22–25 September 2023 No raw data 1,082 30% 20% 21% — 30% Tie
ETtoday 23–24 September 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,368 32.0% 24.5% 20.7% 13.2% 9.6% 7.4%
RW News 12–16 September 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 10,846 42.52% 22.25% 24.23% 6.58% 4.41% 18.29%
KPoint Survey & Research 12–14 September 2023 No raw data 1,073 29.4% 18.4% 16.7% 14.0% 21.5% 7.9%
1,073 29.2% 21.5% 19.6% — 29.7% 0.5%
ETtoday 8–9 September 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,337 35.1% 24.8% 20.0% 12.9% 7.2% 10.3%
1,337 36.5% 29.5% 22.9% — 11.0% 7%
ETtoday 29–30 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,495 35.3% 21.4% 17.6% 17.2% 8.4% 13.9%
ETtoday 18–20 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,207 35.4% 25.6% 24.2% — 14.9% 9.8%
RW News 15–19 August 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 11,324 40.56% 22.16% 23.13% 8.96% 5.18% 17.43%
RW News 11,324 40.99% 22.79% 25.80% — 10.12% 15.19%
ETtoday 15–17 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,235 31.7% 18.6% 17.5% 10.2% 22.0% 9.7%
KPoint Survey & Research 31 July – 2 August 2023 No raw data 1,075 30.3% 15.1% 18.2% 14.8% 21.6% 8.7%
1,075 32.3% 15.8% 23.1% — 28.8% 3.5%
Newtalk 31 July – 1 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,402 30.46% 16.92% 24.71% 17.34% 10.58% 5.75%
1,402 29.46% — 26.23% 26.31% 18.0% 3.15%
Newtalk 1,402 33.5% 21.4% 29.57% — 15.53% 3.93%
ETtoday 28–30 July 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,753 33.4% 21.0% 21.6% 16.4% 7.7% 11.8%
ETtoday 1,753 35.6% 24.3% 28.8% — 11.3% 6.8%
TISR 19–20 July 2023 No raw data 1,068 29.0% 13.2% 17.7% 10.7% 4.0% 11.3%
1,068 33.8% 15.6% 24.9% — 6.0% 8.9%
RW News 12–16 July 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 12,464 38.23% 20.39% 25.29% 9.22% 6.87% 12.94%
RW News 12,464 38.48% 21.29% 28.34% — 11.89% 10.14%
ACEL 10–12 July 2023 No raw data 1,003 33.6% 14.8% 21.1% 12.5% 18.0% 15.6%
1,003 32.4% 17.6% 25.9% — 24.1% 6.5%
ERA NEWS 3–6 July 2023 No raw data 1,070 34.9% 14.5% 19.2% 14.6% 16.8% 15.7%
1,070 35.5% 17.2% 24.2% — 23.1% 11.3%
Newtalk 30 June – 1 July 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 3,245 28.26% 14.63% 21.94% 22.29% 12.89% 5.97%
3,245 28.49% — 24.07% 28.77% 18.67% 0.28%
Newtalk 1,070 32.77% 21.31% 30.74% — 15.19% 2.03%
RW News 6–10 June 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 12,030 37.8% 21.9% 31.3% — 9.1% 6.5%
KPoint Survey & Research 6–9 June 2023 No raw data 1,076 31.2% 17.9% 21.5% — 29.4% 1.8%
ETtoday 23–25 May 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,223 36.4% 27.7% 23.1% — 12.8% 8.7%
udn 18–21 May 2023 No raw data 1,090 28% 24% 22% — 27% 1%

Formosa daily poll

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Number Fieldwork date Sample size Lai-Hsiao
DPP 		Hou-Jaw
KMT 		Ko-Wu
TPP 		Others
Undecided 		Lead
101 27–29 December 2023 1,253 39.6% 28.5% 18.9% 13.0% 11.1%
100 26–28 December 2023 1,326 40.2% 28.7% 18.4% 12.8% 11.5%
99 25–27 December 2023 1,201 40.0% 28.9% 17.6% 13.5% 11.1%
98 22, 25–26 December 2023 1,201 38.7% 29.7% 16.6% 15.0% 9%
97 21–22, 25 December 2023 1,349 38.9% 29.4% 17.2% 14.4% 9.5%
96 20–22 December 2023 1,470 37.5% 32.6% 16.3% 13.6% 4.9%
95 19–21 December 2023 1,470 37.3% 33.4% 17.7% 11.6% 3.9%
94 18–20 December 2023 1,322 36.3% 32.8% 17.7% 13.6% 3.5%
93 15, 18–19 December 2023 1,201 35.2% 30.6% 19.6% 14.6% 4.6%
92 14–15, 18 December 2023 1,201 35.0% 31.7% 18.2% 15.1% 3.3%
91 13–15 December 2023 1,201 35.2% 32.1% 19.7% 13.0% 3.1%
90 12–14 December 2023 1,201 35.7% 31.7% 18.6% 14.0% 4%
89 11–13 December 2023 1,201 35.2% 29.5% 19.0% 16.3% 5.7%
88 8, 11–12 December 2023 1,201 34.7% 31.2% 16.8% 17.3% 3.5%
87 7–8, 11 December 2023 1,201 35.1% 32.5% 17.0% 15.4% 2.6%
86 6–8 December 2023 1,201 37.8% 32.6% 17.3% 12.3% 5.6%
85 5–7 December 2023 1,201 40.5% 30.8% 16.3% 12.5% 9.7%
84 4–6 December 2023 1,201 40.1% 31.6% 14.8% 15.5% 8.5%
83 1, 4–5 December 2023 1,201 38.3% 31.4% 14.8% 15.4% 6.9%
82 30 November–1, 4 December 2023 1,201 38.0% 31.7% 14.9% 15.4% 6.3%
81 29 November–1 December 2023 1,201 37.8% 29.5% 17.7% 15.0% 8.3%
80 28–30 November 2023 1,348 37.1% 30.5% 17.5% 14.9% 6.6%
78 24, 27–28 November 2023 1,476 36.3% 31.0% 18.0% 14.7% 5.3%

CNEWS weekly poll

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Sample Week Fieldwork date Sample method Sample size Lai
DPP 		Hou
KMT 		Ko
TPP 		Gou
IND. 		Others
Undecided 		Lead
1st week of December 30 November – 1 December 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,008 36.9% 28.0% 26.0% — 9.1% 8.9%
local phone 1,000 37.1% 32.9% 17.4% — 12.6% 4.2%
4th week of November 24 – 25 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,013 36.8% 26.6% 26.8% — 9.8% 10%
local phone 1,000 39.9% 29.7% 18.9% — 11.5% 10.2%
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws his candidacy.[2]
2nd week of November 10 – 11 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,046 30.8% 18.0% 26.0% 9.3% 15.9% 4.8%
local phone 1,033 33.9% 22.2% 22.4% 7.3% 14.2% 11.5%
1st week of November 4 – 5 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,000 32.7% 17.3% 25.8% 10.0% 14.2% 6.9%
local phone 1,000 34.7% 20.9% 19.7% 9.9% 14.8% 13.8%
5th week of October 29 – 30 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,049 25.6% 16.0% 25.4% 13.3% 19.7% 0.2%
local phone 1,012 29.1% 18.2% 20.4% 10.8% 21.5% 8.7%
4th week of October 21 – 22 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,048 24.0% 16.2% 24.7% 15.8% 19.3% 0.7%
local phone 1,034 27.6% 19.1% 19.7% 14.1% 19.5% 7.9%
3rd week of October 13 – 14 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,062 29.7% 16.2% 27.7% 11.7% 14.7% 2%
local phone 1,051 34.8% 19.6% 20.4% 8.9% 16.3% 14.4%
2nd week of October 7 – 8 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,045 31.6% 17.0% 26.7% 11.2% 13.5% 4.9%
local phone 1,030 36.0% 17.8% 20.4% 9.1% 16.7% 15.6%
1st week of October 29 – 30 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,037 28.6% 16.9% 24.3% 12.3% 17.9% 4.3%
local phone 1,030 31.5% 17.8% 19.8% 10.2% 20.7% 10.8%
4th week of September 23 – 24 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,016 27.3% 14.2% 23.7% 14.2% 20.6% 3.6%
local phone 1,013 32.6% 14.8% 18.9% 12.3% 20.4% 12.2%

3rd week of September

15 – 16 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,052 28.0% 16.3% 22.6% 13.7% 19.4% 5.4%
local phone 1,025 29.7% 20.8% 16.7% 14.1% 18.7% 8.9%
2nd week of September 9 – 10 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,145 28.4% 15.6% 23.4% 13.0% 19.6% 5%
local phone 1,127 31.5% 16.1% 18.9% 10.6% 22.9% 8.6%
1st week of September 1 – 2 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,024 29.7% 14.8% 23.4% 12.6% 19.5% 6.3%
local phone 1,008 35.4% 15.1% 16.7% 10.7% 22.1% 13.3%
Note：
  • Taiwan CNEWS believes that the different survey methods of each media have led to huge differences in results, and decided to continue to publish presidential election polls starting in September 2023.
  • The survey method is 50% local phone and 50% mobile phone. The number of samples is more than 2,000. In addition, more than 1,000 local phone survey results are simultaneously calculated.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Smith, Courtney Donovan (2024-01-02). "Final Taiwan News Poll of Polls, Jan 2". Taiwan News. Retrieved 2024-01-06.
  2. ^ a b Teng, Pei-ju (24 November 2023). "ELECTION 2024/Business tycoon Terry Gou drops out of presidential race". Central News Agency. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  3. ^ Blanchard, Ben; Lee, Yimou; Lee, Yimou (2023-08-28). "Foxconn founder Terry Gou announces run for Taiwan presidency". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  4. ^ a b c Ko as VP.
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