Opinion polls in New Zealand
Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election . The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub Roy Morgan , and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union ). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
The current parliament was elected on 17 October 2020. The general election took place on 14 October 2023.[ 1]
Graph of opinion polls conducted (as at 10 October 2023). Smoothing is set to span 65%.
Opinion polls grouped by main blocs (as at 10 October 2023)
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.
The parties shown in the table are Labour (LAB), National (NAT), Green (GRN), ACT , Māori (TPM), New Zealand First (NZF), Opportunities (TOP), New Conservative (NCP), and New Zealand Loyal (NZL). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.
Date[ a]
Polling organisation
Sample size
LAB
NAT
GRN
ACT
TPM
NZF
TOP
NCP
Lead
14 Oct 2023
2023 election result N/A
26.92
38.08 11.61
8.64
3.08
6.09
2.22
0.15
11.16
7–10 Oct 2023
1 News–Verian
1,001
28
37 14
9
1.7
6
2.3
–
9
5–10 Oct 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
27.5
34.5 14.9
8.8
2.7
6.8
2.2
–
7
9 Oct 2023
The Port Waikato electorate vote is cancelled after ACT candidate Neil Christensen dies; a replacement by-election will be held on 25 November 2023.[ 2]
4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023
Roy Morgan
1,250
26
30.5 15
11.5
3
7.5
3.5
-
4.5
4–8 Oct 2023
Guardian Essential
1,200
30.3
34 10.6
7.9
1.9
8.2
–
–
3.7
1–4 Oct 2023
Taxpayers' Union-Curia
1,000
27.9
35.9 10.6
9.1
3.7
6.9
2.9
0.7
8
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023
1 News–Verian
1,000
26
36 13
10
2.2
6
1.5
–
10
2 Oct 2023
Advance voting for the 2023 general election begins.
22–28 Sep 2023
Talbot Mills
1,027
27
38 13
9
3.1
6.4
2.3
–
11
23–26 Sep 2023
1 News–Verian
1,002
26
36 13
12
1.9
6
1.3
0.6
10
17–23 Sep 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
26.5
39.1 14.2
8.8
2.2
5.2
1.9
1.1
12.6
16–19 Sep 2023
1 News–Verian
1,001
27
37 12
12
2.9
5
1.4
0.1
10
9–12 Sep 2023
1 News–Verian
1,002
28
39 10
10
2.6
5
1.4
0.8
11
6–10 Sep 2023
Guardian Essential
1,154
26.9
34.5 11
10.3
2.5
6
–
–
7.6
3–9 Sep 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
26.8
40.9 12.3
10.1
3.1
4.6
0.7
0.8
14.1
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
26.5
35 12.7
14.3
2.9
3.9
2.7
0.8
8.5
28–30 Aug 2023
The Post–Freshwater Strategy
1,511
26
36 12
11
3
6
–
–
10
24–30 Aug 2023
Talbot Mills
30
36 12
10
2.4
5.4
1.5
–
6
31 Jul – 27 Aug 2023
Roy Morgan
1,046
24
31 12.5
18
4
5.5
2
–
7
25 Aug 2023
Talbot Mills [ b]
32
34 11
10
4
6
–
–
2
12–16 Aug 2023
1 News–Verian
1,002
29
37 12
13
2.6
3.7
0.6
0.3
8
3–8 Aug 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
27.1
34.9 12
13
2.5
5.8
1
0.6
7.8
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023
Talbot Mills
1,012
32
35 10
11
3.1
4.4
1.8
–
3
2–6 Aug 2023
Guardian Essential
1,163
29
34.5 8.5
11.6
2.5
5.3
–
–
5.5
26–31 Jul 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
32.3
36.6 9.6
12.1
2.7
4.1
1.5
0.7
4.3
24 Jul 2023
Kiri Allan of the Labour Party resigns as a minister.
26 Jun – 23 Jul 2023
Roy Morgan
937
26
33.5 9
14
6
5
4
–
7.5
8–12 Jul 2023
1 News–Verian
1,000
33
35 10
12
2.8
3.1
1.7
0.4
2
2–10 Jul 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
31.1
33.3 8.9
13.2
5
3.3
0.3
0.4
2.2
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2023
Talbot Mills
1,036
31
36 8
12
4.2
4
2.9
–
5
29 May – 25 Jun 2023
Roy Morgan
955
30.5 30
9.5
15
7
3
3
–
0.5
21 Jun 2023
Michael Wood of the Labour Party resigns as a minister.
30 May – 6 Jun 2023
Talbot Mills
1,001
36 35
7
11
3.65
2.9
–
–
1
31 May – 6 Jun 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
32.9
35.7 9.7
12.7
3.5
1.6
0.8
1.3
2.8
20–24 May 2023
1 News–Kantar Public
1,002
35
37 7
11
2.4
3
1.4
0.6
2
24 Apr – 21 May 2023
Roy Morgan
952
31
31.5 12
13.5
4.5
3.5
2
0.5
0.5
18 May 2023
The 2023 Budget is delivered.
12–17 May 2023
Horizon Research
1,563
34.4 26.5
9.5
12.3
4.3
5.3
2.8
1.4
7.9
5–11 May 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
35.9 35.3
8.1
10.8
3.5
3
2
–
0.6
2–7 May 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
33.8
35.6 7
12.7
3.7
2.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
3 May 2023
Meka Whaitiri resigns from the Labour Party and joins Te Pāti Māori.
27 Apr – 3 May 2023
Talbot Mills
1,046
33
36 9
10
4.1
3.4
1.8
–
3
27 Mar – 23 Apr 2023
Roy Morgan
929
30
32 12
12.5
4.5
4.5
2
0.5
2
2–5 Apr 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
36.9 36.5
6.7
9.5
2.9
2.6
0.8
1.7
0.4
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023
Talbot Mills
36 36 9
10
1.9
3.9
0.8
–
Tie
28 Mar 2023
Stuart Nash of the Labour Party is stripped of all his ministerial portfolios.
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2023
Roy Morgan
943
33 32
10.5
13
2
3
3.5
1
1
1–9 Mar 2023
Talbot Mills
1,021
37 34
8
12
3.2
2.9
1.5
–
3
4–8 Mar 2023
1 News–Kantar Public
1,002
36 34
11
11
2.6
3.1
1
0.5
2
2–7 Mar 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
35.5 34.8
5.7
9.3
1.4
4.2
1.7
2.5
0.7
30 Jan – 26 Feb 2023
Roy Morgan
943
33 32
12.5
13.5
3.5
2
2.5
0.5
1
12 Feb 2023
Cyclone Gabrielle begins impacting the North Island
2–9 Feb 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
34.4 34.4 7.8
11.7
2.1
2.9
2
0.8
Tie
26–31 Jan 2023
Talbot Mills
33
36 11
10
3
3.4
2.3
–
3
9–29 Jan 2023
Roy Morgan
948
30
32 12
13.5
4.5
5
1.5
0.5
2
25–29 Jan 2023
1 News–Kantar Public
1,008
38 37
7
10
1.4
2.2
1.1
0.6
1
23–28 Jan 2023
Horizon Research
1,147
35.5 27.7
9
13
4.6
4.5
1.6
1.1
7.8
27 Jan 2023
2023 Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods begin
22–27 Jan 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
38 36.6
8.1
10.7
1.8
2.2
1.5
–
1.4
25 Jan 2023
Chris Hipkins is sworn in as the 41st Prime Minister of New Zealand .
22 Jan 2023
Chris Hipkins is unanimously elected Leader of the Labour Party.
19 Jan 2023
Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation as Prime Minister of New Zealand , taking effect 25 January 2023.
10–16 Jan 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
31.7
37.2 10.6
10.8
1.6
2.8
–
–
5.5
Dec 2022
Roy Morgan
947
27.5
35 11
14.5
4
4
2.5
1
7.5
10 Dec 2022
Tama Potaka of the National Party wins the Hamilton West by-election .
1–6 Dec 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
33.1
39.4 8.1
10.4
3.5
2.9
–
–
6.3
Dec 2022
Talbot Mills
32
35 9
11
3.5
4.3
2.4
–
3
26–30 Nov 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,011
33
38 9
11
2
3.6
1.7
0.6
5
31 Oct – 27 Nov 2022
Roy Morgan
926
25.5
39 12
11
4
3.5
2.5
0.5
13.5
3–8 Nov 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
35.3
37.6 7.8
9.9
1.6
3.8
2.1
0.9
2.3
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022
Talbot Mills
34
35 9
10
3.2
4.4
2
–
1
25 Oct – 3 Nov 2022
Newshub–Reid Research
32.3
40.7 9.5
10
1.9
3.3
1.2
–
8.4
20–25 Oct 2022
Horizon Research
1,154
29.7 26.6
13
13.5
2.2
7.2
2
1.8
3.1
26 Sep – 23 Oct 2022
Roy Morgan
951
29
32 15.5
12.5
3
3.5
3
0.5
3
2–11 Oct 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
34.4
39.2 7.2
9.4
2.1
2.1
3.4
1
4.8
|Oct 2022
Talbot Mills
35 35 9
11
2.2
4
–
–
Tie
29 Aug – 25 Sep 2022
Roy Morgan
942
29.5
36 12.5
12.5
3.5
1
2.5
0.5
6.5
17–21 Sep 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,001
34
37 9
9
1.6
3
1.3
1
3
12 Sep 2022
The COVID-19 Protection Framework officially ends.
1–9 Sep 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
33.4
37 9.9
12.4
1.5
1.6
0.7
1.5
3.6
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022
Talbot Mills
35
38 8
9
3
–
–
–
3
25 Jul – 21 Aug 2022
Roy Morgan
947
35
35.5 9
10.5
5
1.5
1
0.5
0.5
3–11 Aug 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,200
35.2 34
9.5
11
3.5
2.6
–
–
1.2
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022
Talbot Mills
36
37 9
10
–
–
–
–
1
30 Jul – 3 Aug 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,023
33
37 9
11
2.3
2.6
1.9
0.7
4
29 Jul – 3 Aug 2022
Horizon Research
1,044
34.1 31.4
10.2
10.7
2.2
3.5
1.7
2.7
2.7
Jul 2022
Roy Morgan
937
34
35 10.5
11
4
1.5
2.5
1
1
3–10 Jul 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,200
34.7
37 8.5
10
3.7
2.8
–
–
2.3
30 May – 26 Jun 2022
Roy Morgan
947
33.5
39 10
9.5
1.5
1.5
2
0.5
5.5
18 Jun 2022
Sam Uffindell of the National Party wins the Tauranga by-election .
1–12 Jun 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,200
34.2
37.4 8.3
9.4
1.8
2.3
3
1.4
3.2
2–10 Jun 2022
Talbot Mills
1,200
36 35
10
8
3.1
3.3
–
–
1
26 Apr – 22 May 2022
Roy Morgan
934
31.5
40 11.5
10
1
3
1
0.5
8.5
21–25 May 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,002
35
39 10
7
1.9
1.3
1.7
1.2
4
19 May 2022
The 2022 Budget is delivered.
4–11 May 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
34.2
36.8 9.7
10.9
2.4
1.8
1.4
1.3
2.6
29 Apr – 10 May 2022
Talbot Mills [ b] 37 36
8
7
3
4
–
–
1
18–27 Apr 2022
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
38.2
40.5 8.4
6.4
2.5
1.7
0.9
0.7
2.3
28 Mar – 24 Apr 2022
Roy Morgan
918
33.5
37.5 10.5
10
1.5
2.5
2
0.5
4
13 Apr 2022
New Zealand shifts from the Red Light setting to the Orange Light setting of the COVID-19 Protection Framework .
7–13 Apr 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
36.8
37.8 9.4
8.4
3.6
1.7
–
–
1
28 Feb – 27 Mar 2022
Roy Morgan
944
32
38 10.5
9
2
4
1.5
0.5
6
2–7, 14–15 Mar 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
36.2 35.3
12.4
11.2
0.2
1.8
0.1
0.6
0.9
5–8 Mar 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,000
37
39 9
8
2.3
2.2
1.3
0.9
2
31 Jan – 27 Feb 2022
Roy Morgan
963
32
38 11
11.5
2
2
1
1
6
1–10 Feb 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
42.3 38.4
6.3
6.6
1
1.5
2
–
3.9
22 Jan – 4 Feb 2022
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
44.3 31.3
9.6
8
2
1.8
1.5
1.1
13
4–30 Jan 2022
Roy Morgan
951
33
35 10.5
13.5
2.5
2.5
1.5
1
2
22–26 Jan 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,000
40 32
9
11
1.6
1.8
1.6
1
8
23 Jan 2022
Nationwide Red Light restrictions are implemented due to the COVID−19 Omicron variant being detected in the community.
10–17 Jan 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
41.2 33
10.7
11.5
0.5
0.9
1.1
–
8.2
22 Nov – 19 Dec 2021
Roy Morgan
967
35.5 31.5
8.5
18.5
1
2
1
0.5
4
1–8 Dec 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
39.5 32.6
10.9
10.6
3
2.3
–
–
6.9
2 Dec 2021
New Zealand shifts from the COVID-19 alert level system to the new COVID-19 Protection Framework system.
30 Nov 2021
Christopher Luxon is elected Leader of the National Party with Nicola Willis as his deputy.
25 Nov 2021
Judith Collins loses the National Party leadership.
25 Oct – 21 Nov 2021
Roy Morgan
951
36 26.5
10.5
17.5
3
2.5
1.5
1
9.5
10–17 Nov 2021
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
42.7 26.9
7.2
16
2.1
2.5
1.2
0.9
15.8
6–10 Nov 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,001
41 28
9
14
0.9
3.3
1.2
1
13
1–8 Nov 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
39.3 26.2
8.6
15.9
2.3
1.7
–
–
13.1
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021
Labour–Talbot Mills [ b] 1,023
41 24
9
17
2.4
4.2
–
–
17
27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021
Roy Morgan
929
39.5 26
10.5
16
2
2.5
1
1.5
13.5
3–11 Oct 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
44.8 22.5
6.4
16.6
1.5
3.6
–
–
22.3
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021
Labour–Talbot Mills [ b] 1,200+
46 22
7
16
1.9
3.8
–
–
24
30 Aug – 26 Sep 2021
Roy Morgan
940
45.5 23
9.5
16
2
1.5
1.5
–
22.5
22–26 Sep 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,001
43 26
8
14
2.1
2.5
1.2
1.3
17
5–9 Sep 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [ b] 1,000
45.8 21.3
9.6
14.9
1.2
2.7
–
–
24.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021
Labour–Talbot Mills [ b] 1,050
45 26
6
13
2
4.1
–
–
19
26 Jul – 22 Aug 2021
Roy Morgan
940
39.5 25
12
13
2.5
2.5
2
–
14.5
17 Aug 2021
Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID−19 Delta variant being detected in the community.
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021
Labour–Talbot Mills [ b] 1,216
43 28
7
13
1.7
4.4
–
–
15
22–29 Jul 2021
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
43 28.7
8.5
11.1
1.9
3.4
0.8
1.6
14.3
28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021
Roy Morgan
945
39.5 29
10
13
2.5
2
3
–
10.5
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021
Labour–Talbot Mills [ b] 1,199
48 24
8
11
1.5
5
–
–
24
31 May – 27 Jun 2021
Roy Morgan
927
38.5 29.5
12.5
11.5
2.5
1.5
2
–
9
22–26 May 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,002
46 29
8
9
1.8
1.2
1.8
1.5
17
26 Apr – 23 May 2021
Roy Morgan
932
45 28.5
11
9
1.5
2
1.5
–
16.5
20 May 2021
The 2021 Budget is delivered.
7–13 May 2021
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
52.7 27
7.1
6.9
1.2
1.9
1.3
1.2
25.7
29 Mar – 25 Apr 2021
Roy Morgan
933
41.5 29.5
13.5
9
2.5
1
0.5
–
12
21–28 Mar 2021
Roy Morgan
924
45.5 23
12
11
1
2.5
2
–
22.5
9–13 Mar 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,006
49 27
9
8
1.5
1.8
1.2
1.4
22
25 Jan – 21 Feb 2021
Roy Morgan
924
45 29
13.5
7.5
1
1.5
1
–
16
4–24 Jan 2021
Roy Morgan
937
47 25
11.5
9
2
2
1.5
–
22
23 Nov – 13 Dec 2020
Roy Morgan
923
44 28
10.5
10
2
2
2
–
16
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020
1 News–Kantar Public
1,004
53 25
8
8
1.5
1.6
0.5
1.1
28
26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020
Roy Morgan
939
44 25.5
12.5
10.5
1.5
1
2
–
18.5
17 Oct 2020
2020 election result [ 3] N/A 50 25.6
7.9
7.6
1.2
2.6
1.5
1.5
24.4
Date[ a]
Polling organisation
Sample size
LAB
NAT
GRN
ACT
TPM
NZF
TOP
NCP
Lead
General electorates [ edit ]
Electorate vote
Date
Polling organisation
Sample size
GRN
LAB
NAT
ACT
NZF
Lead
24 Sep 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[ 4]
500
38
17
36
2
4
2
17 Oct 2020
2020 election result [ 3] N/A
35.10
32.13
27.16
1.63
0.76
2.97
Electorate vote
Date
Polling organisation
Sample size
LAB
NAT
TOP
GRN
Lead
23 Aug 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[ 7]
400
15
33
14
5
18
17 Oct 2020
2020 election result [ 3] N/A
45.67 37.69
N/A
7.51
7.98
Electorate vote
Date
Polling organisation
Sample size
LAB
NAT
ACT
NZF
Lead
20 Aug 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[ 8]
400
37
48
1
5
11
9 Nov 2022
Curia[ 9]
400
37
45
12
1
8
17 Oct 2020
2020 election result [ 3] N/A
51.06 37.04
N/A
N/A
18.77
Party vote
Date
Polling organisation
Sample size
LAB
NAT
ACT
Lead
20 Aug 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[ 8]
400
27
35
17
8
9 Nov 2022
Curia[ 9]
400
25
43
20
18
17 Oct 2020
2020 election result [ 3] N/A
50.59
27.90
8.12
12.76
Date
Polling organisation
Sample size
NAT
LAB
NZF
GRN
DNZ
ACT
Lead
10 Sep 2023
Taxpayers' Union-Curia[ 10]
400
49
20
15
5
5
3
29
17 Oct 2020
2020 election result
N/A
37.74
38.11
11.43
3.91
N/A
2.86
0.37
Electorate vote
Date
Polling organisation
Sample size
NAT
LAB
GRN
ACT
Lead
18–28 Sep 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[ 11]
400
40
14
–
38
2
20 Jul 2023
Sentio Group[ 12]
700
36
8
6
34
2
17 Oct 2020
2020 election result [ 3] N/A
51.73
32.29
7.85
5.18
19.44
Party vote
Date
Polling organisation
Sample size
LAB
NAT
ACT
GRN
Lead
18–28 Sep 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[ 11]
400
20
49
14
8
29
20 Jul 2023
Sentio Group[ 12]
700
13
49
18
–
36
17 Oct 2020
2020 election result [ 3] N/A
38.42
36.87
11.68
7.65
1.55
An opinion poll was held in the Tauranga electorate prior to the June 2022 Tauranga by-election . The by-election was won by National's Sam Uffindell .[ 13]
Electorate vote
Date
Polling organisation
Sample size
NAT
LAB
GRN
Lead
3–14 Sep 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
500
28.0
30.6
26.6
2.6
17 Oct 2020
2020 election result [ 3] N/A
17.76
57.26
17.54
39.50
Electorate vote
Date
Polling organisation
Sample size
LAB
TPM
Lead
27 September 2023
Whakaata Māori–Curia[ 16]
500
36 32
4
17 Oct 2020
2020 election result [ 3] N/A
65.26 25.57
39.69
Preferred prime minister [ edit ] Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll. To qualify for this table and graph, this person must reach at least 3 percent in three separate polls.
Graph of preferred prime minister opinion polls (as at 10 October 2023). Only includes people who polled at least 3% in three separate polls.
Smoothing is set to span 45%.
Date[ a]
Polling organisation
Sample size
Hipkins
Luxon
Seymour
Peters
Ardern
Collins
Lead
7–10 Oct 2023
1 News–Verian
1,001
25 25 4
5
0.5
0.2
Tie
5–10 Oct 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
22.2
23.6 4.2
5
3.4
–
1.4
1–4 Oct 2023
Taxpayers’ Union–Curia
1,000
27
29 4
4.3
4.5
–
2
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023
1 News–Verian
1,000
25
26 3
4
0.4
–
1
23–26 Sep 2023
1 News–Verian
1,002
23 23 5
4
1
–
Tie
17–23 Sep 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
19.1
24 6.1
6
4.1
–
4.9
16–19 Sep 2023
1 News–Verian
1,001
23 23 5
4
1
0.2
Tie
9–12 Sep 2023
1 News–Verian
1,002
23 23 5
4
1
0.1
Tie
3–9 Sep 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
22.5 22.5 7
4.6
–
–
Tie
28–30 Aug 2023
The Post–Freshwater Strategy
1,511
45 43
–
–
–
–
2
24–30 Aug 2023
Talbot Mills
28 26
11
-
-
-
2
12–16 Aug 2023
1 News–Verian
1,000
21 20
6
3
2
0.2
1
3–8 Aug 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
25 25 7
7
–
–
Tie
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023
Talbot Mills
1,012
34 24
-
-
-
-
10
26–31 Jul 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
24 15.9
10.9
4.3
–
–
8.1
8–12 Jul 2023
1 News–Verian
1,000
24 20
7
2
1
–
4
2–10 Jul 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
23 20
6
3.6
8
-
3
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2023
Talbot Mills
1,036
32 21
-
-
-
-
11
31 May – 6 Jun 2023
Taxpayers' Union Curia
1,000
29 23
7
2.8
9
-
6
20–24 May 2023
1 News–Kantar Public
1,002
25 18
7
2
1
0.1
7
5–11 May 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
23.4 16.4
7.5
3.6
8.5
–
7
27 Apr – 3 May 2023
Talbot Mills
1,046
32 25
–
–
–
–
7
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023
Talbot Mills
36 24
11
–
–
–
12
1–9 Mar 2023
Talbot Mills
1,021
39 23
–
–
–
–
16
4–8 Mar 2023
1 News–Kantar Public
1,002
27 17
6
3
2
0.2
10
2–7 Mar 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
30 21
8
–
7
–
9
1–9 Feb 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
30 26
8
3.5
9
–
4
26–31 Jan 2023
Talbot Mills
35 27
9
–
–
–
8
25–29 Jan 2023
1 News–Kantar Public
1,008
23 22
6
2
5
0.3
1
22–27 Jan 2023
Newshub–Reid Research
19.6 18.8
8
2.9
12.4
–
0.8
25 Jan 2023
Chris Hipkins is sworn in as the 41st Prime Minister of New Zealand .
22 Jan 2023
Chris Hipkins is unanimously elected Leader of the Labour Party.
19 Jan 2023
Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation as Prime Minister of New Zealand , taking effect 25 January 2023.
1–6 Dec 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
26.3
7.1
3.4
35.3 —
9
26–30 Nov 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,011
0.2
23
6
2
29 0.1
6
3–8 Nov 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
21.1
6.1
2.5
35 —
13.9
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022
Talbot Mills
24
—
–
40 –
16
25 Oct – 3 Nov 2022
Newshub–Reid Research
21.5
7.3
4.2
29.9 –
8.4
2–11 Oct 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
22.5
7.3
3.6
32.9 —
10.4
17–21 Sep 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,001
0.2
21
4
2
30 0.1
9
1–9 Sep 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
25.9
6.6
2.6
36.5 —
10.6
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022
Talbot Mills
26
—
–
38 –
12
3–11 Aug 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,200
19.5
7.7
4.2
39.5 —
20
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022
Talbot Mills
26
9
–
39 –
13
30 Jul – 3 Aug 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,023
0.2
22
5
2
30 0.2
8
3–10 Jul 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,200
22.4
6.1
2.3
41.2 —
18.8
1–12 Jun 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,200
28
5.6
3.8
39.7 —
11.7
2–10 Jun 2022
Talbot Mills
1,200
29
8
42 13
21–25 May 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,002
–
25
3
1
33 0.1
8
4–11 May 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
27.9
–
–
35.1 —
7.2
18–27 Apr 2022
Newshub–Reid Research
23.9
5.1
—
36.3 –
12.4
7–13 Apr 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
28.6
4.8
2.6
36.3 —
7.7
2–7, 14–15 Mar 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
26.6
4.4
5.5
38.7 —
12.1
5–8 Mar 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,000
0.3
25
5
2
34 0.3
9
1–10 Feb 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
28.5
2.4
1.8
38.9 1.5
10.4
22 Jan – 4 Feb 2022
Newshub–Reid Research
17.8
7.9
—
43.3 –
25.5
22–26 Jan 2022
1 News–Kantar Public
1,000
0.1
17
6
1.0
35 0.2
18
10–17 Jan 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
18.4
8.4
0.9
37.5 3.8
19.1
1–8 Dec 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
20.4
5.6
2.4
39.1 0.8
18.7
30 Nov 2021
Christopher Luxon is elected Leader of the National Party.
25 Nov 2021
Judith Collins is removed as National Party leader in a vote of no confidence.
10–17 Nov 2021
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
2.5
11.9
—
41.7 6.1
29.8
6–10 Nov 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,001
–
4
11
1
39 5
28
1–8 Nov 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
4.1
10.5
1.5
34 6.3
23.5
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021
Talbot Mills
1,023
2
15
—
47 10
32
3–11 Oct 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
2.3
12.3
1.3
47.2 5.2
34.9
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021
Talbot Mills
1,200+
–
16
—
51 9
35
22–26 Sep 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,001
0.1
3
11
0.7
44 5
33
5–9 Sep 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
3.3
9.3
1.5
50.8 4.4
41.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021
Talbot Mills
1,050
1.3
14
—
55 13
41
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021
Talbot Mills
1,216
2.1
14
—
50 11
36
22–29 Jul 2021
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
–
8.6
—
45.5 8.2
36.9
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021
Talbot Mills
1,199
–
12
—
55 10
43
22–26 May 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,002
–
3
6
1
48 9
39
7–13 May 2021
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
2.4
—
—
48.1 5.6
42.5
9–13 Mar 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,006
–
2
4
0.7
43 8
35
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020
1 News–Kantar Public
1,004
0.3
2
4
1
58 12
46
Government approval rating [ edit ] The government approval rating is a statistic which measures the proportion of people who say they think the country is heading in the right direction or wrong direction politically.
Graph of government approval rating polls (as at 31 August 2023).
Smoothing is set to span 65%.
Date[ a]
Polling organisation
Sample size
Right direction
Wrong direction
Do not know
Lead
4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023
Roy Morgan
–
38
45 17
7
31 Jul – 27 Aug 2023
Roy Morgan
1,046
32
56 12
23
28–30 Aug 2023
The Post–Freshwater Strategy
1,511
21
63 15
42
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023
Talbot Mills
1,012
37
55 8
18
2–6 Aug 2023
Guardian Essential
1,163
31
55 14
24
26 Jun – 23 Jul 2023
Roy Morgan
937
29
60.5 10.5
31.5
2–10 Jul 2023
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
22.1
64.5 13.4
42.4
29 May – 25 Jun 2023
Roy Morgan
955
38
54 8
16
24 Apr – 21 May 2023
Roy Morgan
952
34.5
54.5 11
20
27 Apr – 3 May 2023
Talbot Mills
1,046
40
52 8
12
27 Mar – 23 Apr 2023
Roy Morgan
929
35
55 10
20
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2023
Roy Morgan
945
38.5
52.5 9
14
30 Jan – 26 Feb 2023
Roy Morgan
943
42.5
47.5 10
5
9–29 Jan 2023
Roy Morgan
948
40
49 11
9
Dec 2022
Roy Morgan
947
32
57 11
25
31 Oct – 27 Nov 2022
Roy Morgan
926
35
55 10
20
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022
Talbot Mills
41
49 10
8
26 Sep – 23 Oct 2022
Roy Morgan
951
42
50 8
8
2–11 Oct 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
29
56 15
27
29 Aug – 25 Sep 2022
Roy Morgan
942
37.5
51.5 11
14
1–9 Sep 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
32
54 14
22
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022
Talbot Mills
44
49 7
5
25 Jul – 21 Aug 2022
Roy Morgan
947
37.5
53 9.5
15.5
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022
Talbot Mills
42
50 8
8
27 Jul – 24 Jul 2022
Roy Morgan
937
40.5
51 8.5
10.5
30 May – 26 Jun 2022
Roy Morgan
947
39
51.5 9.5
12.5
1–12 Jun 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,200
36
50 14
14
2–10 Jun 2022
Talbot Mills
1,200
50 42
8
8
26 Apr – 22 May 2022
Roy Morgan
934
40
50 10
10
4–11 May 2022
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
34
48 18
14
29 Apr – 10 May 2022
Talbot Mills
51 40
9
11
28 Mar – 24 Apr 2022
Roy Morgan
913
43
49.5 7.5
6.5
28 Feb – 27 Mar 2022
Roy Morgan
944
39
51.5 9.5
12.5
31 Jan – 27 Feb 2022
Roy Morgan
963
42.5
47.5 10
5
4–30 Jan 2022
Roy Morgan
951
48.5 42
9.5
6.5
22 Nov – 19 Dec 2021
Roy Morgan
967
42.5
44.5 13
2
25 Oct – 21 Nov 2021
Roy Morgan
951
46 44.5
9.5
1.5
1–8 Nov 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
44
45 11
1
27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021
Roy Morgan
929
48 38.5
13.5
9.5
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021
Talbot Mills
1,200
63 30
7
33
30 Aug – 26 Sep 2021
Roy Morgan
940
57 32
11
25
26 Jul – 22 Aug 2021
Roy Morgan
940
52.5 37.5
10
15
28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021
Roy Morgan
945
55.5 34.5
10
21
31 May – 27 Jun 2021
Roy Morgan
927
57 33
10
24
26 Apr – 23 May 2021
Roy Morgan
932
62.5 28.5
9
34
29 Mar – 25 Apr 2021
Roy Morgan
933
62.5 26.5
11
36
21–28 Mar 2021
Roy Morgan
924
61.5 26
12.5
35.5
25 Jan – 21 Feb 2021
Roy Morgan
924
69.5 20
10.5
49.5
4–24 Jan 2021
Roy Morgan
937
71.5 18.5
10
53
23 Nov – 13 Dec 2020
Roy Morgan
923
71.5 18
10.5
53.5
26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020
Roy Morgan
939
69.5 20
10.5
49.5
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election , when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[ 23]
On 19 November 2022, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters ruled out a coalition with Labour, claiming "No one gets to lie to me twice".[ 24] [ 25] co-governance and its calls for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi.[ 26] [ 27] [ 28]
Source
Seats in parliament[ i]
Likely
LAB
NAT
GRN
ACT
TPM
NZF
Total
2023 election result [ 29] 14 Oct 2023
34 48 15 11 6 8
122
National–ACT–NZ First (67)
1 News–Verian[ 30] 7–10 Oct 2023 poll
35
47
17
11
2
8
120
National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Newshub–Reid Research[ 31] 5–10 Oct 2023 poll
35
43
19
11
3
9
120
National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Guardian Essential[ 32] 4–8 Oct 2023 poll
39
44
14
10
2
11
120
National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan[ 33] 4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023 poll
33
39
19
15
4
10
120
National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[ 34] 1–4 Oct 2023 poll
35
46
13
12
5
9
120
National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills[ 35] 22–28 Sep 2023 poll
34
47
16
11
4
8
120
National–ACT–NZ First (66)
The Post/Freshwater Strategy[ 36] 28–30 Aug 2023 poll
34
46
15
14
4
7
120
National–ACT–NZ First (67)
^ a b c d These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
^ a b c d e f g h Private poll
^ " . ABC News . 19 January 2023. Archived from the original on 19 January 2023. Retrieved 19 January 2023 .^ "ACT Party Port Waikato candidate Neil Christensen dies" . Radio NZ News . Retrieved 10 October 2023 .^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y "2020 General Election – Official Results and Statistics" . ElectionResults.govt.nz . Electoral Commission . Archived from the original on 21 January 2021. Retrieved 28 February 2021 .^ "National's Muralidhar nipping at Swarbrick's heels in Auckland central electorate poll" . Radio New Zealand . 26 September 2023. Archived from the original on 26 September 2023. Retrieved 26 September 2023 .^ "Poll shows Chlöe Swarbrick in fight to hold Auckland Central" . Newstalk ZB. 27 September 2023.^ "Auckland Central Electorate Debate 2023 - Taxpayers' Union The Working Group" . YouTube . Retrieved 26 September 2023 .^ "Christchurch's Ilam electorate swings back to National, according to latest poll" . Radio New Zealand . 29 August 2023. Archived from the original on 29 August 2023. Retrieved 29 August 2023 .^ a b "NEW POLL: National Leads In Napier Electorate" . New Zealand Taxpayers' Union . 23 August 2023. Archived from the original on 23 August 2023. Retrieved 23 August 2023 .^ a b "Napier Poll - November 2022" (PDF) . Curia . 9 November 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 13 March 2023. Retrieved 4 September 2023 .^ September 12; Media, 2023 Nztu. "NEW POLL: National Lead in Northland Electorate" . Taxpayers' Union . Retrieved 7 October 2023 . {{cite web }}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link )^ a b Manhire, Toby (3 October 2023). "Simon O'Connor vs Brooke van Velden will go to wire in Tāmaki – new poll" . The Spinoff . ^ a b "Matthew Hooton: Van Velden on track to make it two seats for Act in Auckland" . NZ Herald . 21 July 2023. Archived from the original on 20 July 2023. Retrieved 20 July 2023 .^ "Tauranga – Official Result" . Electoral Commission . Retrieved 17 September 2023 .^ "Tauranga by-election: On the campaign trail and behind the scenes with National, ACT and Labour" . Newshub . Archived from the original on 25 June 2022. Retrieved 21 June 2022 .^ "Newshub Nation Reid Research Poll: Labour's Ibrahim Omer, Greens' Tamatha Paul, National's Scott Sheeran neck and neck in Wellington Central" . Newshub . Retrieved 17 September 2023 .^ a b "Election's youngest candidate has Labour stronghold under siege" . Te Ao Māori News . Retrieved 5 October 2023 .^ a b "Will voters punish Meka Whaitiri for waka jumping?" . Te Ao Māori News . Retrieved 5 October 2023 .^ a b "Older voters back Henare and Labour; younger favour Kemp and Te Pāti Māori" . Te Ao Māori News . Retrieved 11 October 2023 .^ a b "Neck and neck race for Te Tai Hauāuru" . Te Ao Māori News . Retrieved 8 October 2023 .^ a b "KORO BEATS WINNING THE ELECTION FOR KELVIN DAVIS | Media Release | Whakaata Māori" . www.whakaatamaori.co.nz . Retrieved 8 October 2023 .^ a b "Tirikatene tightens grip on Te Tai Tonga" . Te Ao Māori News . Retrieved 5 October 2023 .^ a b "Poll: Rawiri Waititi takes clear lead to hold Waiariki" . Te Ao Māori News . Retrieved 9 October 2023 .^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election" . ABC News . Retrieved 10 September 2020 . ^ Swift, Molly. "NZ First leader Winston Peters rules out coalition with Labour" . Newshub . No. 19 November 2022. Retrieved 29 September 2023 . ^ Franke-Bowell, Jonah; McConnell, Glenn (13 April 2023). " . Stuff . Retrieved 12 April 2023 . ^ McConnell, Glenn (11 January 2023). "Te Pāti Māori plans for a big 2023, but happy to stay cross bench" . Stuff . Retrieved 11 January 2023 . ^ McConnell, Glenn (10 May 2023). "National's Christopher Luxon officially rules out working with Māori Party" . Stuff . Retrieved 10 May 2023 . ^ " . RNZ . 27 August 2023. Retrieved 27 August 2023 .^ "2023 General Election - Official Result" . ElectionResults.govt.nz . Electoral Commission . 3 November 2023.^ Desmarais, Felix (11 October 2023). "Poll: Labour lifts and Greens strong, Peters has decision to make" . 1 News . ^ Lynch, Jenna (11 October 2023). "Newshub-Reid Research poll: National right to panic as support plummets, New Zealand First surges" . Newshub . ^ Graham-McLay, Charlotte (10 October 2023). "Guardian Essential New Zealand poll: Labour picks up steam days out from election" . The Guardian . ^ "New Zealand set for a new Prime Minister and a three-party governing coalition: National, ACT & NZ First" . Roy Morgan . 13 October 2023.^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2023" . New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 6 October 2023.^ Trevett, Claire (5 October 2023). "Election 2023: Last pre-election Talbot Mills shows NZ First rising and in the box seat, National and Greens rising, Act and Labour dropping" . New Zealand Herald . ^ Vance, Andrea (7 September 2023). "Labour slumps to new poll low but numbers offer some comfort" . The Post .
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