Opinion polling for the 2019 Guatemalan general election
This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2019 Guatemalan general election, which was held in on 16 June 2019. Because no candidate won a majority, a run-off occurred on 11 August 2019.[1]
Second round
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Polling Firm | Date | Sample size | Giammattei Vamos |
Torres UNE |
None | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second round | 11 August | — | 57.95 | 42.05 | — | 15.90 |
| Average[2] | 10 July–10 August | 6,021 | 53.23 | 46.76 | (N/A) | 6.47 |
| CID-Gallup[3] | 29 July–5 August | 1.216 | 54.9 | 45.1 | -- | -- |
| Prodatos[4] | 27 July–3 August | 1.201 | 50.3 | 32.1 | 17.6 | 18.2 |
| OPol Consultores[5] | 24–26 July | 2.400 | 44.7 | 49.1 | 6.1 | 4.4 |
| CID-Gallup[6] | 9–14 July | 1.204 | 40.6 | 33.4 | 25.9 | 7.2 |
| First round | 16 June | — | 12.1 | 22.1 | — | 10.0 |
| CID-Gallup[7] | 1–7 June | 1.204 | 11.6 | 22.6 | 22.9 | 1.0 |
| Prodatos[8] | 27 May–5 June | 1.004 | 54.0 | 32.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 |
Alternative scenarios
[edit]| Polling firm | Date | Sample size | Arzú PAN–Podemos |
Mulet Humanist |
Torres UNE |
None | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First round | 16 June | — | — | 11.2 | 25.5 | — | 14.3 |
| First round | 16 June | — | 6.1 | — | 25.5 | — | 19.4 |
| Prodatos[8] | 13 June | 1,004 | — | 42.0 | 36.0 | 22.0 | 6.0 |
| Prodatos[8] | 13 June | 1,004 | 46.0 | — | 33.0 | 21.0 | 13.0 |
| CID-Gallup[7] | 1–7 June | 1,204 | 36.0 | — | 33.0 | 31.0 | 3.0 |
First round
[edit]After resolutions
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Polling firm | Date | Sample size | Torres UNE |
Giammattei Vamos |
Arzú PAN–P |
Mulet PHG |
T. Cabrera MLP |
Farchi VIVA |
F. Cabrera Todos |
Estrada CREO |
Others | None | Lead | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presidential election | 16 June | — | 25.54 | 13.95 | 6.08 | 11.21 | 10.37 | 5.90 | 3.13 | 3.75 | |||||||||
| Prodatos[8] | 13 June | 1,004 | 20.2 | 14.4 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 16.6 | 15.7 | 5.8 | ||||||
| CID-Gallup[7] | 30 May–7 June | 1,204 | 22.6 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 15.1 | 22.7 | 11.0 | ||||||
| CID-Gallup[9] | 21 May-25 May | 1,202 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 28.0 | 9.0 | ||||||
| OPol Consultores[10] | 20 May-23 May | 2,200 | 23.36 | 10.77 | 13.18 | 8.63 | 3.22 | 1.72 | 0.63 | 1.22 | 11.99 | 25.28 | 10.18 | ||||||
Before resolutions
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aldana Semilla |
Arzú PAN–P |
Escobar PC |
Giammattei Vamos |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor |
N/A | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CID-Gallup[11] | 15 May | 1,747 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 14.0 | 24.0 | 22.0 | 7.0 |
| On May 15, 2019, Thelma Aldana is out of the elections. | |||||||||||
| On May 13, 2019, Zury Rios is out of the elections. | |||||||||||
| TResearch | 15 April | 1,000 | 23.7 | — | — | 10.8 | 17.1 | 15.7 | — | 32.7 | 6.6 |
| TResearch | 14 April | 1,000 | 24.1 | — | — | 11.0 | 16.5 | 16.0 | — | 32.4 | 7.6 |
| TResearch | 13 April | 1,000 | 24.4 | — | — | 11.5 | 16.3 | 15.7 | — | 32.1 | 8.1 |
| TResearch | 12 April | 1,000 | 24.1 | — | — | 11.5 | 14.8 | 16.2 | — | 33.4 | 7.9 |
| TResearch | 11 April | 1,000 | 24.5 | — | — | 10.8 | 14.8 | 16.1 | — | 33.8 | 8.4 |
| TResearch | 10 April | 1,000 | 24.6 | — | — | 11.7 | 14.1 | 15.8 | — | 33.8 | 8.8 |
| TResearch | 9 April | 1,000 | 24.9 | — | — | 11.8 | 14.2 | 15.7 | — | 33.4 | 9.2 |
| TResearch | 8 April | 1,000 | 25.2 | — | — | 12.1 | 14.8 | 15.6 | — | 32.3 | 9.6 |
| TResearch | 7 April | 1,000 | 25.1 | — | — | 11.7 | 14.4 | 15.4 | — | 33.4 | 9.7 |
| TResearch | 6 April | 1,000 | 25.3 | — | — | 11.8 | 14.3 | 14.7 | — | 33.9 | 10.6 |
| TResearch | 5 April | 1,000 | 25.0 | — | — | 11.6 | 14.7 | 14.3 | — | 34.6 | 10.3 |
| TResearch | 4 April | 1,000 | 25.1 | — | — | 11.6 | 15.3 | 13.8 | — | 34.2 | 9.6 |
| TResearch | 3 April | 1,000 | 24.6 | — | — | 12.0 | 14.5 | 13.5 | — | 35.4 | 10.1 |
| TResearch | 2 April | 1,000 | 24.2 | — | — | 12.2 | 15.0 | 13.4 | — | 35.2 | 9.2 |
| TResearch | 1 April | 1,000 | 23.8 | — | — | 12.5 | 15.5 | 13.3 | — | 34.9 | 8.3 |
| Prodatos[12] | 19–27 March | 1,200 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 20.7 | 15.9 | 26.1 | 24 | 4.8 |
| March 18, 2019, the electoral campaign begins. | |||||||||||
| CID-Gallup[13] | 16–25 February | 1,258 | 10.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 17.7 | 7.9 | 40.9 | 11.1 | 7 |
| Consulta Mitofsky[14] | 8–11 February | 1,000 | 28.1 | — | — | 14.4 | 6.1 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 21.2 | 10.5 |
| CID-Gallup[15] | 24 January–4 February | 1,815 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 7 | 46 | 10 | 7 |
Favorable or unfavorable opinions
[edit]Favorable opinions
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aldana Semilla |
Arzú PAN–P |
Escobar PC |
Estrada UCN |
Galdámez FCN |
Giammattei Vamos |
Montenegro EG |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consulta Mitofsky[14] | 8–11 February | 1,000 | 36 | 8 | — | 11 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 9 | 31 |
Unfavorable opinions
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aldana Semilla |
Arzú PAN–P |
Escobar PC |
Estrada UCN |
Galdámez FCN |
Giammattei Vamos |
Montenegro EG |
Mulet PHG |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consulta Mitofsky[14] | 8–11 February | 1,000 | 27 | 56 | — | 30 | 62 | 25 | 32 | — | 66 | 28 |
Most favorite for president
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aldana Semilla |
Arzú PAN–P |
Escobar PC |
Galdámez FCN |
Giammattei Vamos |
Montenegro EG |
Mulet PHG |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consulta Mitofsky[14] | 8–11 February | 1,000 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | — |
Least favorite for president
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aldana Semilla |
Arzú PAN–P |
Escobar PC |
Galdámez FCN |
Giammattei Vamos |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CID-Gallup[7] | 1–7 June | 1,204 | — | 3.3 | — | 1.8 | 2.2 | 34.1 | — |
| CID-Gallup[11] | 8–13 May | 1,747 | 10 | 2 | — | — | — | 28 | 3 |
| CID-Gallup[13] | 16–25 February | 1,258 | 6.2 | 3.5 | — | 3.2 | 3.4 | 21.2 | 6.5 |
| Consulta Mitofsky[14] | 8–11 February | 1,000 | 12.6 | — | — | — | 2.0 | 40 | 4.4 |
References
[edit]- ^ Fernanda Nunes (6 June 2019). "Explainer: Guatemala's Presidential Election". AS/COA. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
- ^ GEUN, GEUN (11 August 2019). "Final Polling Average". youtube.com.
- ^ Gramajo, Jessica (7 August 2019). "Esto revela la encuesta electoral entre Torres y Giammattei". soy502.com (in Spanish).
- ^ "Encuesta Libre: Intención de voto segunda vuelta elecciones Guatemala". Prensa Libre (in Spanish). 8 August 2019.
- ^ Marín, Claudia (6 August 2019). "Sandra Torres encabeza segunda ronda en elecciones de Guatemala". elmundo.cr (in Spanish).[permanent dead link]
- ^ Gramajo, Jessica (17 July 2019). "Encuesta revela quién va a la cabeza en la Segunda Vuelta". soy502.com (in Spanish).
- ^ a b c d Segunda Encuesta Electoral (junio de 2019)
- ^ a b c d Segunda Encuesta Libre (junio de 2019)
- ^ https://www.soy502.com/sites/default/files/informe_op_especial_guatemala_mayo_2019_luis_haug_-_cid_gallup_v3.pdf [bare URL PDF]
- ^ Torres, Arzú, Giammattei y Mulet lideran intención de votos, según estudio.
- ^ a b Estos son los resultados de la reciente encuesta de Cid Gallup
- ^ Cuatro candidatos acaparan mayor intención de voto
- ^ a b Nueva encuesta electoral de Cid-Gallup hasta finales de febrero
- ^ a b c d e "ASÍ VAN... ESTUDIO ELECTORAL GUATEMALA (FEB/2019)". Consulta Mitofsky (in Spanish). 13 February 2019. Archived from the original on 12 April 2019. Retrieved 14 February 2019.
- ^ "Carrera por la presidencia de Guatemala inicia". CID-Gallup (in Spanish). 13 February 2019. Archived from the original on 15 February 2019. Retrieved 14 February 2019.