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Next Ukrainian parliamentary election

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Next Ukrainian parliamentary election
← 2019 Date not announced
All 450 (possibly 300)[1] seats in the Verkhovna Rada
226 (possibly 151)[1] seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Olena Shuliak Petro Poroshenko Yulia Tymoshenko
Party Servant of the People European Solidarity Batkivshchyna
Leader since 15 November 2021 31 May 2019 9 July 1999
Last election 254 seats, 43.16% 25 seats, 8.11% 26 seats, 8.19%
Current seats 235 27 24
 
Leader Yuriy Boyko Kira Rudik Oleh Kulinich
Party PZZhM Holos Dovira
Leader since 21 April 2022 12 March 2020 6 December 2019
Last election 43 seats, 13.06% 20 seats, 5.83% New
Current seats 22 20 19
 
Leader Ihor Palytsia Antonina Slavytska [uk]
Party For the Future Restoration
Leader since 20 May 2020 8 December 2023
Last election New New
Current seats 17 16
Incumbent Prime Minister

Denys Shmyhal
Independent



Parliamentary elections are expected to take place in Ukraine to elect members of the Verkhovna Rada after the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War.[2] According to the Ukrainian electoral code,[3] the electoral process should start within a month from the cancellation of the state of martial law that was introduced in 2022 following the Russian invasion. The previous parliamentary election in Ukraine was held on 21 July 2019.[4]

Background

The previous parliamentary elections in 2019 were snap ones, called in July instead of the regular constitutionally-prescribed late October date. The first meeting of the elected deputies took place on 29 August 2019.[5] According to Article 77 of the Constitution, regular elections to the Verkhovna Rada (the parliament of Ukraine) take place on the last Sunday of October of the fifth year of parliamentary powers. Thus, if not for the war, the regular parliamentary elections would have taken place on 29 October 2023.[6][7]

In 2021, there were rumors that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would call for snap elections in 2021, but also that he could use a provision to "collide" parliament's term with the 2024 Ukrainian presidential election.[8]

Postponement

Elections are not allowed under martial law in Ukraine.[9] Article 10 of Ukraine's "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law", adopted in 2015, stipulates that the powers of the president, parliament, and Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine cannot be terminated under martial law,[10] while Article 19 bans presidential, parliamentary, and local elections;[11][12] Article 19 of the previous version of the law adopted in 2000 included the same provision.[13] Martial law in Ukraine has been in effect since 24 February 2022, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[14]

According to Article 83 of the Constitution, if the five-year authority of the Verkhovna Rada expires while martial law is in effect, its authority is extended until the first meeting of the next convocation of the Verkhovna Rada elected after the end of martial law.[15] Electoral rights are not listed in Article 64 of the Constitution among the rights and freedoms that cannot be withheld in the state of martial law.[15]

A survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre in September 2023 showed that only 15% of those surveyed supported holding elections during wartime, while 64% were against.[16] Similarly, a September 2023 survey conducted by Rating for the International Republican Institute, 62% replied that considering the war, if a decision about the necessity of elections is to be made, the elections should begin to be held only after the war, even if this means waiting even longer [than March 2025].[17] A poll released by KIIS in November 2023 reported that 81% of Ukrainians did not want presidential or parliamentary elections until the war was over.[18]

On 22 June 2023, President Zelenskyy announced that the elections would not be held as scheduled in 2023 due to ongoing martial law, and would be held in 2024 only if martial law ended by then.[19] On 17 August 2023, martial law was extended for a further 90 days until 15 November 2023, which means the election could not take place on 29 October 2023 as originally planned.[20] In November 2023, all political parties represented in the Verkhovna Rada signed a memorandum in which they agreed to postpone holding elections until after martial law has ended.[21]

Electoral system

On 1 January 2020 the latest revision of the electoral code of Ukraine took effect. It states that all deputies are elected on a party list in one nationwide constituency with a 5% election threshold with open regional lists of candidates for deputies.[22] The new election law abolishes the single-member constituency system used since the 2012 parliamentary election.[a] Under the previous system, the 450 members of the Verkhovna Rada were elected by two methods; 225 by closed list proportional representation in a nationwide constituency with a 5% threshold, and 225 in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting.[24]

On 4 February 2020, the parliament approved in the first reading (with 236 votes) a presidential bill to reduce the number of parliamentary deputies from 450 to 300.[1] To do so, the Ukrainian Constitution needs to be altered, and this will require at least 300 parliamentary votes.[1]

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the Verkhovna Rada.[25]

Parties Leader(s) Parliamentary
leader(s) 		Ideology Position Seats
Last election Before election
Servant of the People Olena Shuliak Davyd Arakhamia Centrism Centre
254 / 450
235 / 450
European Solidarity Petro Poroshenko Iryna Herashchenko
Artur Herasymov 		Liberal conservatism Centre-right
25 / 450
27 / 450
Batkivshchyna Yulia Tymoshenko Conservatism Centre-right
26 / 450
24 / 450
Platform for Life and Peace Yuriy Boyko Social democracy[26] Centre-left Did not exist
22 / 450
Holos Kira Rudyk Oleksandra Ustinova Liberalism Centre-right
20 / 450
20 / 450
Dovira Olena Kyivets Oleh Kulinich Regionalism Centre Did not exist
19 / 450
For the Future Ihor Palytsia Taras Batenko Populism Centre-right Did not exist
17 / 450
Restoration of Ukraine Antonina Slavytska Did not exist
16 / 450

Former party

Parties Leader(s) Parliamentary
leader(s) 		Ideology Position Seats
Last election Before election
Opposition Platform — For Life Yuriy Boyko
Vadim Rabinovich 		Russophilia Centre
43 / 450
 Banned

Suspended parties

Martial law in Ukraine was declared on 24 February 2022. On 15 March 2022, the Verkhovna Rada deprived opposition MP Illia Kyva of his mandate.[27]

On 20 March 2022, the activities of several political parties were suspended by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine for the period of martial law:[28][29]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Ukrainian parliamentary election

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Previous electoral reform passed in July 2019 also made all 450 members only elected by open list proportional representation; but it would not come into force until 1 December 2023.[23]

References

  1. ^ a b c d (in Ukrainian) The Verkhovna Rada has previously approved the reduction of the number of people's deputies to 300 and the transition to a proportional electoral system, Interfax-Ukraine (4 February 2020)
  2. ^ Deprez, Fabrice (2023-10-04). "Ukraine Is Already Working on Its Next Election. The challenges of holding a vote in wartime are both small and big—and often unexpected". Foreign Policy.
  3. ^ Electoral Code of Ukraine, Verkhovna Rada, 2020. Article 20.
  4. ^ Final Ukraine Election Results Confirm Zelenskiy Landslide, RFE/RL (26 July 2019)
  5. ^ Rada’s solemn sitting takes place at VRU’s premises Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, 29 August 2019
  6. ^ "'Grenade among birthday gifts' kills adviser to Ukraine's military chief". The Guardian. 7 November 2023. Retrieved 7 November 2023.
  7. ^ "Конституція України". Офіційний вебпортал парламенту України (in Ukrainian). Retrieved 2023-11-20.
  8. ^ "Перевибори цієї осені чи проблема-2023? До чого готується Зеленський та опозиція". Hromadske.TV (in Ukrainian). 2 Aug 2021.
  9. ^ "No elections can be held in Ukraine while martial law in effect – National Security and Defence Council". Ukrainska Pravda. 16 May 2023. Retrieved 16 May 2023.
  10. ^ "Five years of Zelenskyyʼs presidency will expire in May 2024. Some analysts and enemies say he will lose legitimacy. Itʼs true? — No, this is an unconstitutional delusion. Babelʼs legal and anti-fake analysis". babel.ua. 2024-02-26. Retrieved 2024-10-30.
  11. ^ Reaney, Lee; Wasserman, Joel (2023-07-11). "Wartime Elections in Ukraine Are Impossible". Foreign Policy. Archived from the original on 2023-11-14. Retrieved 2024-10-30.
  12. ^ Закон України "Про правовий режим воєнного стану" [Law of Ukraine "On the legal status of martial law"] (in Ukrainian). Verkhovna Rada. 2015-05-12. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  13. ^ "Закон України "Про правовий режим воєнного стану"" [Law of Ukraine "On the legal status of martial law" (void law, 2000)] (in Ukrainian). Verkhovna Rada. 2000-04-06. Retrieved 2024-10-31.
  14. ^ "Parliament extends martial law, general mobilization in Ukraine for another 90 days". Ukrinform. May 2, 2023. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  15. ^ a b Constitution of Ukraine per Council of Europe website as accessed on 22 May 2023
  16. ^ Центр, Разумков. "Оцінка громадянами ситуації в країні. Довіра до соціальних інститутів, політиків, посадовців та громадських діячів. Ставлення до проведення загальнонаціональних виборів в Україні до завершення війни (вересень 2023р.)". razumkov.org.ua (in Ukrainian). Retrieved 2023-10-18.
  17. ^ "National Survey of Ukraine, September 2023" (PDF). iri.org. Retrieved 2023-10-28.
  18. ^ "Press releases and reports - When elections should be held, attitudes towards online voting and attitudes towards possible restrictions on citizens' rights: results of a telephone survey conducted on September 30-October 11, 2023". Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Retrieved 2024-10-30.
  19. ^ "Ukraine to hold elections after war ends, says Zelenskyy". english.nv.ua. The New Voice of Ukraine. 22 June 2023. Archived from the original on 29 June 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2023.
  20. ^ Stern, David L.; Ebel, Francesca (2023-08-17). "Zelensky extends martial law, casting doubt on fall parliamentary elections". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2023-08-21.
  21. ^ "Ukraine's political parties agree on carrying out elections only after the war". Ukrainska Pravda. 30 November 2023. Retrieved 30 November 2023.
  22. ^ Electoral Code becomes effective in Ukraine, Interfax-Ukraine (1 January 2020)
  23. ^ Ukraine finally gets a new Election Code. It’s the first step to an effective political system Euromaidan Press, 12 July 2019
  24. ^ Ukraine IFES
  25. ^ "Офіційний портал Верховної Ради України". w1.c1.rada.gov.ua. Retrieved 2023-11-20.
  26. ^ "Підтримують Зеленського і курс на ЄС та планують ребрендинг: як живе ОПЗЖ після розколу і заборони?". www.radiosvoboda.org. Retrieved 2023-09-02.
  27. ^ "Kyva is no longer a People's Deputy". Українська правда (in Ukrainian). 15 March 2022. Retrieved 15 March 2022.
  28. ^ "NSDC bans pro-Russian parties in Ukraine". Ukrinform. March 20, 2022. Retrieved 20 March 2022.
  29. ^ "As it happened: Ukraine war latest: Resilience making Russia assess reality, negotiator says".
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