Near-miss effect
The near-miss effect refers to when a player becomes more motivated to continue expending effort because the previous effort "almost succeeded". It occurs in many endeavors, especially sports, but is highly documented and studied in gambling.[1][2]
Psychology
[edit]The near-miss effect is boosted by conditional reinforcement and personal control.[3][4] It stimulates reward-related parts of the brain such as the ventral striatum,[5] and can increase heart rate and dopamine transmission in the brain,[6][7] with the stimuli causing the feeling that the gambler is close to a win.[4]
By stimulating the "win" response, conditional reinforcement, which is only useful in games of skill, may[8] lead a gambler to temporarily mistake a game of luck for a game of skill.[3] For instance, a soccer player who takes a shot and hits the goalpost may legitimately feel encouraged to shoot again, as they perceive the near miss as evidence that they are shooting well that day, the defenders are not defending well, or that they are otherwise about to score, whereas missing a lottery ticket by only one digit has no bearing on the effectiveness of buying another lottery ticket.
According to a study published in Neuron, gamblers also have an inflated confidence when they choose their lottery ticket or throw the roulette ball by themselves, compared to when another person throws it. For example, craps players have been found to throw the dice harder for a higher roll, again mistaking chance for skill.[3]
Effects outside of gambling
[edit]Besides gambling, the near-miss effect also affects decision making in other fields. For example, gamblers who experience the near-miss effect view it as a success, leading to riskier decision making. They also subjectively assess the future probability of failure to be lower that the actual probability. Mangers who make decisions leading to the near-miss effect are evaluated as highly as managers who make decisions resulting in successes.[9] Robin L. Dillon, Catherine H. Tinsley and Matthew Cronin, explaining the result, write: "People did not update given probabilities, they did not calculate new probabilities, they simply felt differently about the initial probabilities that were given. Thus it might be said that near-miss information changes people’s frames of reference.”[10]
Documentation
[edit]Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1982 considered a lottery where the winning ticket number is 865304 and there are three ticket holders, with numbers 361204, 965304 and 865305 respectively. They asserted that the first two ticket holders would not be troubled, whereas the third one would experience frustration due to the near-miss effect.[1]
An experiment on rats used a machine similar to a slot machine to study the near-miss effect. The machine allowed rats to press a lever in which, if all three lights on display flashed, the rats would win a pellet of food; otherwise, the lever would inflict a time penalty. The experiment found that the rats were more likely to press the lever when they won or when two of the three lights flashed (a near-miss).[8][11] Different studies have shown that about 30% of near-misses increased the rate of gambling behavior.[6]
The near-miss effect is commonly seen in slot machines. For example, in a slot machine where "cherry, cherry, cherry" signals a win, "cherry, cherry, lemon" would be an example of a near-miss.[4] This is shown by measures of direct frustration like how hard the spin button is pressed.[12] Therefore, slot machines have a high rate of near-misses which may add to their addictive potential.[13] The evidence for the emotional impact of near-misses is mixed; some studies show no significant results.[13][14]
Wordle, a popular word guessing game, contains near-misses.[15] Video games too have similar characteristics.[16]
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ a b Reid, R. L. (1986). "The psychology of the near miss" (PDF). Journal of Gambling Behavior. 2 (1): 32–39. doi:10.1007/BF01019932. ISSN 0742-0714.
- ^ Tao, Suo; Yang, Yan; Zeng, Fan; Mengmeng, Wang; Guoxiang, Zhao (September 2018). "The near-miss effect in gambling game". Advances in Psychological Science (in Chinese). 26 (9): 1689–1699. doi:10.3724/SP.J.1042.2018.01689.
- ^ a b c Clark, Luke; Lawrence, Andrew J; Astley Jones, Frances; Gray, Nicola (2009). "Gambling Near-Misses Enhance Motivation to Gamble and Recruit Win-Related Brain Circuitry". Neuron. 61 (3): 481–490. doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2008.12.031. PMC 2658737. PMID 19217383.
- ^ a b c Pisklak, Jeffery M; Yong, Joshua J H; Spetch, Marcia L (2020). "The Near-Miss Effect in Slot Machines: A Review and Experimental Analysis Over Half a Century Later". Journal of Gambling Studies. 36 (2): 611–632. doi:10.1007/s10899-019-09891-8. PMC 7214505. PMID 31522339.
- ^ Quaglieri, Alessandro; Pizzo, Alessandra; Cricenti, Clarissa; Tagliaferri, Ginevra; Frisari, Francesca Valeria; Burrai, Jessica; Mari, Emanuela; Lausi, Giulia; Giannini, Anna Maria; Zivi, Pierpaolo (1 February 2024). "Gambling and virtual reality: unraveling the illusion of near-misses effect". Frontiers in Psychiatry. 15. doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2024.1322631. ISSN 1664-0640. PMC 10867214. PMID 38362030.
- ^ a b Clark, Luke; Liu, Rui; McKavanagh, Rebecca; Garrett, Alice; Dunn, Barnaby D.; Aitken, Michael R. F. (12 November 2013). "Learning and Affect Following Near-Miss Outcomes in Simulated Gambling". Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 26 (5): 442–450. doi:10.1002/bdm.1774. ISSN 0894-3257.
- ^ Chase, Henry W.; Clark, Luke (5 May 2010). "Gambling Severity Predicts Midbrain Response to Near-Miss Outcomes". Journal of Neuroscience. 30 (18): 6180–6187. doi:10.1523/JNEUROSCI.5758-09.2010. ISSN 0270-6474. PMC 2929454. PMID 20445043.
- ^ a b Lehrer, Jonah. "The Near-Miss Effect". Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. Retrieved 9 November 2024.
- ^ Sundali, James A.; Safford, Amanda H.; Croson, Rachel (2012). "The impact of near-miss events on betting behavior: An examination of casino rapid roulette play". Judgment and Decision Making. 7 (6): 768–778. doi:10.1017/S1930297500003326. ISSN 1930-2975.
- ^ Dillon, Robin L.; Tinsley, Catherine H.; Cronin, Matthew (2011). "Why Near-Miss Events Can Decrease an Individual's Protective Response to Hurricanes". Risk Analysis. 31 (3): 448. Bibcode:2011RiskA..31..440D. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01506.x. ISSN 1539-6924. PMID 20880221.
- ^ Winstanley, Catharine A.; Cocker, Paul J.; Rogers, Robert D. (5 January 2011). "Dopamine Modulates Reward Expectancy During Performance of a Slot Machine Task in Rats: Evidence for a 'Near-miss' Effect". Neuropsychopharmacology. 36 (5): 913–925. doi:10.1038/npp.2010.230. ISSN 1740-634X. PMC 3077261. PMID 21209612.
- ^ Dixon, Mike J.; Larche, Chanel J.; Stange, Madison; Graydon, Candice; Fugelsang, Jonathan A. (1 March 2018). "Near-Misses and Stop Buttons in Slot Machine Play: An Investigation of How They Affect Players, and May Foster Erroneous Cognitions". Journal of Gambling Studies. 34 (1): 161–180. doi:10.1007/s10899-017-9699-x. ISSN 1573-3602. PMC 5846825. PMID 28702882.
- ^ a b Palmer, Lucas; Ferrari, Mario A; Clark, Luke (2024). "The near-miss effect in online slot machine gambling: A series of conceptual replications". American Psychological Association. 38 (6): 716–727. doi:10.1037/adb0000999. PMID 38709628.
- ^ Barton, K. R.; Yazdani, Y.; Ayer, N.; Kalvapalle, S.; Brown, S.; Stapleton, J.; Brown, D. G.; Harrigan, K. A. (1 December 2017). "The Effect of Losses Disguised as Wins and Near Misses in Electronic Gaming Machines: A Systematic Review". Journal of Gambling Studies. 33 (4): 1241–1260. doi:10.1007/s10899-017-9688-0. ISSN 1573-3602. PMC 5663799. PMID 28421402.
- ^ Dixon, Mike J.; Gunpat, Brittany S.; Boucher, Isabelle A.; Tsang, Monica; Ahmed, Sara; Shaikevich, Greg; Dhode, Isha; Leung, Joshua; Kruger, Tyler B. (17 October 2024). "Using "Wordle" to assess the effects of goal gradients and near-misses". Scientific Reports. 14 (1): 24336. Bibcode:2024NatSR..1424336D. doi:10.1038/s41598-024-74450-0. ISSN 2045-2322. PMC 11487082. PMID 39420198.
- ^ "The Near Miss Effect and Game Rewards". The Psychology of Games. 2 September 2016. Retrieved 9 December 2024.