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2021 London Assembly election

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2021 London Assembly election
← 2016 6 May 2021 2024 →
All 25 seats in the London Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Turnout42.7% Decrease 2.9%
  First party Second party
 
Leader Len Duvall Susan Hall
Party Labour Conservative
Leader's seat Greenwich and Lewisham Londonwide
Last election 12 seats 8 seats
Seats won 11 9
Seat change Decrease 1 Increase 1
Constituency Vote 1,083,215 833,021
% and swing 41.7%
Decrease 1.8 		32.0%
Increase 0.9
Regional Vote 986,609 795,081
% and swing 38.1%
Decrease 2.2 		30.7%
Increase 1.5
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Caroline Russell Caroline Pidgeon
Party Green Liberal Democrats
Leader's seat Londonwide Londonwide
Last election 2 seats 1 seat
Seats won 3 2
Seat change Increase 1 Increase 1
Constituency Vote 336,840 266,595
% and swing 13.0%
Increase 3.9 		10.3%
Increase 2.8
Regional Vote 305,452 189,622
% and swing 11.8%
Increase 3.8 		7.3%
Increase 1.0

The 2021 London Assembly election was held on 6 May 2021 to elect the members of the London Assembly, alongside the 2021 London mayoral election. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally to be held on 7 May 2020, but on 13 March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[1] It was the sixth election since the Assembly was established in 2000. Due to the previous term being extended to 5 years, those elected would only serve a three-year term until the next election in 2024. The election was held on the same day in 2021 as other elections in the UK; the UK local elections, Scottish Parliament election, and Welsh Senedd election.

Five parties had featured in the fifth Assembly: London Labour led by Len Duvall; London Conservatives led by Gareth Bacon and latterly Susan Hall;[2] London Greens led by Caroline Russell; UKIP London represented by David Kurten (as part of the Brexit Alliance group led by its former leader Peter Whittle); and the London Liberal Democrats led by Caroline Pidgeon. This fell to four parties after the election, as UKIP lost both its seats.

Background

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2016–2019

[edit]

In the 2016 local elections, the Labour Party won the post of London Mayor, as well as 12 seats in the London Assembly elections. The party polled over 1 million votes, which represented the best-ever result for any political party in a London Assembly election. The Conservative Party were the runners-up, winning 8 seats, followed by the Green Party (2 seats), the UK Independence Party (2 seats) and the Liberal Democrats (1 seat). The Women's Equality Party, meanwhile, achieved 3.5% of the regional list vote, failing to reach the 5% minimum threshold required for representation.

The following year, in the snap election on 8 June 2017, Labour polled 55% of the popular vote in London, winning 49 of 73 London seats in the British House of Commons. In the 2018 borough elections across the capital, Labour saw their best result in over 45 years, winning 47% of the vote. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Green party also gained seats across London.

UKIP Assembly Member Peter Whittle left the party in December 2018. He and the remaining UKIP Assembly Member David Kurten formed their own Brexit Alliance group on the Assembly.[3] Kurten subsequently also left UKIP.[4]

2019 elections

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In 2019, London was involved in two nationwide elections.

In the May 2019 European Parliament elections, the Liberal Democrats came first in London; winning the most votes in the London region with 27% and gaining three MEPs, their best result in the party's history. The Labour Party came second, with 24% of the vote, losing two seats.[5] The Brexit Party gained two MEPs and Greens won 12.5% of the vote, holding their one seat. The Conservative Party failed to get a single MEP elected in London for the first time in the history of the party.[citation needed]

In the general election at the end of 2019, there was no net change in the number of seats for each party, although four constituencies in London changed hands. Across London, Labour comfortably won the most seats.[6][7] Two members of the London Assembly were elected to Parliament: the Conservative group leader Gareth Bacon and Labour member Florence Eshalomi. Susan Hall replaced Bacon as Conservative group leader, and both Bacon and Eshalomi announced that they would not seek re-election at the 2020 London Assembly election.[8]

Electoral system

[edit]
Social distancing measures outside a polling station in Highgate, London, 6 May 2021

The members of the Assembly are elected through a combination of both first past the post as well as closed list proportional representation; this system is commonly referred to as the additional member system. 14 members are elected in single member constituencies with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes becoming the Assembly Member for that constituency. An additional 11 members are also elected from the whole of London — with parties creating lists of up to 25 candidates — for a party to be included it needs to attain at least 5% of the vote across London. This process divides the remaining seats proportionally to the vote share of the parties with the use of the modified D'Hondt method allocating the seats. This system ensures proportionality with the 11 additional members being allocated in a corrective manner.[9][10]

Campaign

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The London Labour Party changed its selection process for assembly members so that party members select new candidates.[11][12] The party started an investigation into a dispute over a "trigger ballot" organised by Momentum members to deselect Florence Eshalomi, Assembly Member for Lambeth and Southwark.[13][14]

The Conservatives intend to stand candidates. Their constituency candidate for the North East, Ben Seifert, stood down and joined the Lib Dems in 2019.[15]

Nominations for the Green Party's list candidates closed in January 2019. Their final list was headed by their two current Assembly Members, Sian Berry (also the mayoral candidate) and Caroline Russell. The other three individuals who sought the mayoral nomination are also all Assembly candidates: Shahrar Ali (list candidate in 2016), Peter Underwood and former Liberal Democrat Zack Polanski.[16] Other candidates include Benali Hamdache (list candidate in 2016; sought to be the Green mayoral candidate in 2016, losing to Berry).[17]

The Liberal Democrats announced a shortlist of 15 people to be list candidates. These were voted on by the party membership, with the results announced in late November 2018.[18][19] The candidate list was reshuffled in May 2019 following the withdrawal of Lucy Salek, originally placed third on the list.

Candidates

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Constituency candidates need to submit a deposit of £1,000, which is returned if they get 5% of the vote. A London-wide list requires a deposit of £5,000, returnable if the list gets 2.5% of the vote.[20]

Constituency candidates

[edit]
Constituency Labour[21] Conservative[citation needed] Green[22] Lib Dems[23] Reform UK Others[24]
Barnet & Camden Anne Clarke[a]
(75,180, 1st) 		Roberto Weeden-Sanz
(62,178, 2nd) 		Kirsten de Keyser[b]
(22,180, 3rd) 		Marisha Ray
(14,172, 4th) 		Mark Simpson[b]
(4,107, 5th)
Bexley & Bromley Stefano Borella
(47,389, 2nd) 		Peter Fortune[25][a]
(97,966, 1st) 		Mary Ion
(21,600, 3rd) 		Alan Tweddle
(13,305, 4th) 		Michael Pastor[b]
(5,861, 5th)
Brent & Harrow Krupesh Hirani[a]
(77,782, 1st) 		Molly Samuel-Leport
(56,560, 2nd) 		Emma Wallace
(17,472, 3rd) 		Anton Georgiou
(14,783, 4th) 		Ian Price[b]
(3,916, 5th)
City & East Unmesh Desai[c]
(125,025, 1st) 		Nick Vandyke
(46,718, 2nd) 		Tim Kiely
(25,596, 3rd) 		Richard Flowers
(14,136, 4th) 		David Bull[b]
(9,060, 5th)
Croydon & Sutton Patsy Cummings
(56,975, 2nd) 		Neil Garratt[a]
(75,246, 1st) 		Peter Underwood[b]
(18,069, 4th) 		Claire Bonham
(26,258, 3rd) 		Robert Poll[b]
(3,190, 5th) 		Renos Sampson
(Let London Live)[b]
(2,021, 6th)
Ealing & Hillingdon Onkar Sahota[c]
(85,216, 1st) 		Gregory Stafford
(76,974, 2nd) 		Marijn van de Geer
(22,620, 3rd) 		Hussain Khan[b]
(16,435, 4th) 		Anthony Goodwin
(7,415, 5th)
Enfield & Haringey Joanne McCartney[c]
(81,620, 1st) 		Lee David-Sanders
(43,626, 2nd) 		Jarelle Francis[b]
(21,921, 3rd) 		Dawn Barnes
(17,363, 4th) 		Deborah Cairns
(3,284, 5th) 		Pamela Anne Holmes (Ind)
(1,020, 6th)
Greenwich & Lewisham Len Duvall[c]
(82,048, 1st) 		Charlie Davis
(38,889, 2nd) 		Rosamund Kissi-Debrah[b]
(30,808, 3rd) 		Chris Annous[b]
(12,744, 4th) 		Edward Apostolides[b]
(3,689, 5th) 		Tan Bui (Ind)
(1,851, 6th)
Havering & Redbridge Judith Garfield
(61,941, 2nd) 		Keith Prince[c]
(77,268, 1st) 		Melanie Collins
(13,685, 3rd) 		Thomas Clarke
(8,150, 4th) 		Richard Tice[b]
(5,143, 5th) 		Andy Walker (TUSC)[b]
(1,856, 6th)
Lambeth & Southwark Marina Ahmad[a]
(91,949, 1st) 		Hannah Ginnett
(30,855, 3rd) 		Claire Sheppard
(36,933, 2nd) 		Florence Cyrot
(20,920, 4th) 		John Cronin[b]
(3,917, 5th) 		April Ashley (TUSC)[b]
(2,919, 6th)
Merton & Wandsworth Leonie Cooper[c]
(75,468, 1st) 		Louise Calland
(60,968, 2nd) 		Pippa Maslin
(22,793, 3rd) 		Sue Wixley
(18,818, 4th) 		Roger Gravett
(3,080, 5th)
North East Sem Moema[a]
(112,739, 1st) 		Emma Best[b]
(41,398, 3rd) 		Caroline Russell[b]
(43,601, 2nd) 		Kate Pothalingam
(14,827, 4th) 		Alex Wilson
(4,251, 5th) 		Nancy Taaffe (TUSC)[b]
(3,236, 6th)
South West Candice Atterton
(56,945, 3rd) 		Nicholas Rogers[a]
(69,212, 1st) 		Andrée Frieze
(23,135, 4th) 		Gareth Roberts
(61,222, 2nd) 		Dominique Day[b]
(3,396, 5th) 		Sylvia Da Barca
(Let London Live)[b]
(2,836, 6th)
West Central Rita Begum
(52,938, 2nd) 		Tony Devenish[c]
(55,163, 1st) 		Zack Polanski[b]
(16,427, 3rd) 		Ted Townsend
(13,462, 4th) 		Saradhi Rajan[b]
(1,954, 6th) 		Heiko Bernard Khoo
(Let London Live)[b]
(1,977, 5th)
Source: London Elects
  1. ^ a b c d e f g New candidate for incumbent party
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y Also a candidate for the London-wide list
  3. ^ a b c d e f g Incumbent seeking re-election

London-wide list candidates

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2021 London Assembly election (London-wide)[26]
List Candidates Votes Of total (%) ± from prev.
Labour Elly Baker (98,661), Sakina Sheikh (89,692),
Murad Qureshi (82,217), Emine Ibrahim, Faduma Hassan, Sophie Charman-Blower, Bob Littlewood, Miriam Mirwitch, Shahina Jaffer, Taranjit Chana, James Beckles 		986,609 38.1% Decrease2.2%
Conservative Shaun Bailey[a] (132,514), Andrew Boff (113,583), Susan Hall (99,385), Emma Best (88,342),
Selina Seesunkur (79,508), Toby Williams, Ahmereen Reza, Timothy Briggs, Simon Hoar, John Riley, Julian Gallant, George Currie 		795,081 30.7% Increase1.5%
Green Siân Berry[a] (305,452), Caroline Russell (152,726), Zack Polanski (101,817),
Benali Hamdache (76,363), Shahrar Ali, Rosamund Kissi-Debrah, Ben Fletcher, Hannah Graham, Peter Underwood, Kirsten De Keyser, Jarelle Francis 		305,452 11.8% Increase3.8%
Liberal Democrats Caroline Pidgeon (189,522), Hina Bokhari (94,761),
Robert Blackie (63,174), Chris Maines, Joyce Onstad, Irina von Wiese, Hussain Khan, Michael Bukola, Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett, Adetokunbo Fatukasi, Charley Hasted 		189,522 7.3% Increase1.0%
Women's Equality Harini Iyengar, Jacueline Dean, Tabitha Morton, Rebecca Manson-Jones, Nikki Uppal, Pamela Ritchie, Leila Fazal, Sarabajaya Kumar, Guilene Marcor, Sellisha Lockyer, Korina Holmes, Maureen Obi-Ezekpazu, Georgina Ladbury 55,684 2.2% Decrease1.3%
Rejoin EU Richard Hewison[a], Deborah Iliffe, Charlotte Blake, John Stevens, Brendan Donnelly, Rory Fitzgerald, Benrd Rendic, Philipp Gnatzy, Karol Bobal, Raj Kumar, Javern Pond 49,389 1.9% New
Animal Welfare Vanessa Hudson[a], Sam Morland, Alex Bourke, Femy Amin, Mark Scott, Julian Weisman 44,667 1.7% Increase0.7%
CPA Maureen Maud Marin, Helen Spiby-Vann, Ashley Keith Dickenson, Carol Valinejad, Eunice Oruyinka Ade Odesanmi, Katherine Susan Hortense, Desmond Coke, Donald Akhigbe 28,878 1.1% Increase0.1%
UKIP Peter Gammons[a], Elizabeth Jones, Julie Carter, Stuart Freeman, Marjan Keqaj, Kakala Nyembwe, Ziz Kakoulakis, Geoffrey Courtenay, Anil Bhatti, Amir Latif, Simon Harman 27,114 1.0% Decrease5.5%
Reform UK Richard Tice, David Bull, Robert Poll, Dominique Day, Michael Pastor, Saradhi Rajan, Ian Price, Edward Apostolides, Mark Simpson, Michael Anthony, John Cronin 25,009 1.0% New
London Real Brian Rose[a], Paul Frost, Kim Murray, Julian Bailes 18,395 0.7% New
Let London Live Piers Corbyn[a], Heiko Khoo, Sylvia Da Barca, Julia Stephenson, Renos Samson 15,755 0.6% New
Heritage David Kurten[a], Sean Finch, Lewis Glyn, Zachary Stiling, Barbara Ray, Dominic Stockford 13,534 0.5% New
TUSC Nancy Taaffe, April Ashley, Lewis Baker, Deji Olayinka, Andrew Walker, Thea Everett, Lawanya Ramajayam, Jack Jeffery, Marvin Hay, Len Hockey, Lois Austin, Bob Law, Ferdy Lyons, Rachel Lyon, Naomi Bryan, Pete Mason, Angharad Hillier, Hugo Pierre, Brian Debus, Mira Glavardanov, Niall Mulholland, John Viner, Wally Kennedy, Paul Kershaw, Paul Scott 9,004 0.3% New
Communist Robin Talbot, Judith Cazorla Rodenas, Philip Wedgwood Brand, Akira Allman, Lorraine Douglas, Stewart McGill, Lucian Branescu-Mihaila, Anita Halpin, Hannah Sawtwell 8,787 0.3% New
SDP Eric Siva-Jothy, Stephen Gardner, Matthew Beresford, Simon Marshall, Brilant Krasniqi, Seth Liebowitz, Tricia Bracher, Rosamund Hubley 7,782 0.3% New
Londependence Bella Roberts, Tom Foster, Daniel Jacobs, John Halnan 5,746 0.2% New
National Liberal Upkar Rai, Arunasalam Rajalingam, Faisal Maramazi, Araz Yurdseven, Ponniah Yogaraja 2,860 0.1% New

Assembly members not standing for re-election

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Opinion polls

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Constituency

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Green Lib Dem Others Lead
2–4 May 2021 YouGov N/A 1,141 43% 30% 13% 9%
5%
Reform UK on 2%
Other on 3%
 13%
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,192 46% 29% 8% 12%
5%
Reform UK on 3%
Other on 2%
 17%
16–19 Nov 2020 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,192 50% 30% 9% 8%
5%
Reform UK on 3%
Other on 1%
 20%
2–6 Mar 2020 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,002 47% 31% 9% 11% –[b] 16%
5 May 2016 2016 Assembly election — 43.5% 31.1% 9.1% 7.5% 8.8% 12.4%

London wide vote

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Green Lib Dem Others Lead
2–4 May 2021 YouGov N/A 1,141 41% 31% 15% 8%
5%
Reform UK on 2%
Other on 3%
 10%
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,192 44% 29% 11% 11%
5%
Reform UK on 3%
Other on 2%
 15%
16–19 Nov 2020 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,192 49% 29% 10% 7%
5%
Reform UK on 3%
Other on 1%
 17%
2–6 Mar 2020 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,002 45% 29% 12% 10% –[b] 16%
5 May 2016 2016 Assembly election — 40.3% 29.2% 8.0% 6.3% 16.2% 11.1%

Results

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PartyConstituencyRegionalTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Labour1,083,21541.679986,60938.10211−1
Conservative833,02132.045795,08130.7149+1
Green336,84012.960305,45211.8033+1
Liberal Democrats266,59510.260189,5227.3222+1
Women's Equality55,6842.15000
Rejoin EU49,3891.9100New
Animal Welfare44,6671.73000
Christian Peoples Alliance28,8781.12000
UK Independence Party27,1141.0500−2
Reform UK62,2632.40025,0090.9700New
London Real18,3950.7100New
Let London Live6,8340.26015,7550.6100New
Heritage13,5340.5200New
TUSC8,0110.3109,0040.3500New
Communist Party of Britain8,7870.3400New
Social Democratic7,7820.3000New
Londependence5,7460.2200New
National Liberal2,8600.1100New
Independent2,8710.1100New
Total2,599,650100.00142,589,268100.0011250
Valid votes2,599,65098.332,589,26897.92
Invalid/blank votes44,0581.6754,9312.08
Total votes2,643,708100.002,644,199100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,191,38742.706,191,38742.71
Source: London Elects

Analysis

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In the regional vote, the Greens saw the largest vote increase, up 3.8 percentage points to gain 1 seat, while UKIP suffered the largest fall - down 5.4 percentage points and losing both their seats.

See also

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Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Stood as a mayoral candidate
  2. ^ a b Brexit Party: 2%

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Local elections postponed for a year over coronavirus". BBC News. 13 March 2020. Retrieved 13 March 2020.
  2. ^ @GLAConservative (17 December 2019). "We're pleased to announce that @Councillorsuzie is our new leader. 💙💪
    🗣 "As Sadiq Khan's unsuccessful mayoralty draws to a close, we will champion a new path for London.""     (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  3. ^ Sleigh, Sophia (13 December 2018). "Ukip London Assembly members form new Brexit Alliance group amid Tommy Robinson chaos". Evening Standard. Retrieved 29 February 2020.
  4. ^ Mathewson, Jessie (28 January 2020). "David Kurten announces run for Mayor of London". Times Series. Retrieved 29 February 2020.
  5. ^ "Lib Dems top London European vote". 27 May 2019. Retrieved 30 May 2019.
  6. ^ Grierson, Jamie (13 December 2019). "London still a 'Labour city' after night of few changes". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 23 December 2019.
  7. ^ "General Election 2019: As it happened in London". BBC News. Retrieved 23 December 2019.
  8. ^ "New London MPs will step down from City Hall roles in May". East London and West Essex Guardian Series. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  9. ^ "London Mayor and Assembly". Your Vote Matters. 24 September 2018. Retrieved 9 June 2019.
  10. ^ "The Voting Systems". London Elects. Archived from the original on 11 May 2015. Retrieved 9 June 2019.
  11. ^ Jessica Elgot (5 November 2018). "Labour London assembly members face reselection fight". The Guardian. Retrieved 5 February 2019.
  12. ^ Sophia Sleigh (16 March 2019). "Momentum bids to push Sadiq Khan manifesto to Left". London Evening Standard. Retrieved 17 March 2019.
  13. ^ "Labour accused of London Assembly deselection 'stitch-up'". 30 April 2019.
  14. ^ "Probe into London Labour 'deselection plot'". 1 May 2019.
  15. ^ "Conservative London Assembly candidate quits over 'direction the party is taking'". OnLondon. 8 September 2019. Retrieved 29 February 2020.
  16. ^ "New year, new structures and new policies - Green news round up week 1". Bright-green.org. 6 January 2019. Retrieved 29 February 2020.
  17. ^ "Green Party reveals full list of runners for London Mayoral and Assembly spots | the Green Party".
  18. ^ "Lib Dem shortlist for London Mayor and GLA list published". Markpack.org.uk. 17 October 2018. Retrieved 29 February 2020.
  19. ^ "Lib Dems announce results for London Assembly list selection". Markpack.org.uk. 21 November 2018. Retrieved 29 February 2020.
  20. ^ "Nominations". London Elects.
  21. ^ Chappell, Elliot; Rodgers, Sienna (20 February 2020). "Corbynsceptics score victories in London Assembly candidate selections". LabourList. Retrieved 21 February 2020.
  22. ^ "Elections". london.greenparty.org.uk. Archived from the original on 21 February 2020. Retrieved 21 February 2020.
  23. ^ "Full set of Liberal Democrat candidates for London Assembly unveiled". Mark Pack. 9 June 2019. Retrieved 21 February 2020.
  24. ^ "London Assembly elections (Constituencies)". Democracy Club Candidates. Retrieved 1 April 2020.
  25. ^ Suraj Sharma [@Suraj_Sharma] (6 March 2020). "The Bexley & Bromley GLA candidate is @PeterTFortune . That was the toughest selection event I've ever seen. 4 absolutely amazing candidates and a tough tough decision. Well fought @nicoladykes @ScottPattenden @LT_FRENCH" (Tweet). Retrieved 20 April 2021 – via Twitter.
  26. ^ Harpley, Mary. "Statements of persons nominated for the London Assembly (London-wide) | London Elects". www.londonelects.org.uk. Archived from the original on 18 April 2021. Retrieved 20 April 2021.
  27. ^ Cumiskey, Lucas (18 January 2019). "Jennette Arnold announces she won't stand for re-election to London Assembly". Islington Gazette. Archant Community Media. Archived from the original on 16 August 2019. Retrieved 7 April 2020.
  28. ^ a b Mathewson, Jessie. "New London MPs will step down from City Hall roles in May". East London and West Essex Guardian Series. Newsquest Media Group. Retrieved 23 December 2019.
  29. ^ Rodgers, Sienna (5 February 2020). "Labour First reveal slate of candidates for London Assembly selection race". LabourList. Retrieved 27 March 2020.
  30. ^ Osley, Richard (11 January 2019). "Andrew Dismore to step down as London Assembly member". Camden New Journal. New Journal Enterprises.
  31. ^ "Labour selects Krupesh Hirani for Brent and Harrow seat in upcoming London election". Eastern Eye. Garavi Gujurat Publications. 21 February 2020. Retrieved 23 February 2020.
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