List of target seats in the 2024 United Kingdom general election
(Redirected from List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election)
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The 2024 United Kingdom general election was held on 4 July 2024. These were the target seats for each of the political parties, according to notional results from the previous election in 2019.[1] These marginal seats are listed by notional swing required for each party to gain the seat.[2] They are not necessarily the seats that the parties are choosing to target.[3]
Owing to boundary changes following the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, these target seats are determined by notional results of the previous election using the new constituencies as if they were contested in 2019.[4]
List by party[edit]
Conservative[edit]
Labour[edit]
Liberal Democrats[edit]
Reform UK[edit]
The target seats for Reform UK are based on results of the Brexit Party in 2019.[10] The party didn't contest Conservative-held seats so their target seats based on the 2019 result are primarily in North East England and Wales.[11]
SNP[edit]
Plaid Cymru[edit]
| Plaid Cymru target seats[16] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required |
Winning party 2024 | ||
| 1 | Ynys Mon | Conservative Party | 3.48% | Plaid Cymru | ||
| 2 | Caerfyrddin[note 5] | Conservative Party | 4.25% | Plaid Cymru | ||
| 3 | Llanelli | Labour Party | 9.53% | Labour Party | ||
| 4 | Caerphilly | Labour Party | 14.59% | Labour Party | ||
| 5 | Pontypridd | Labour Party | 17.87% | Labour Party | ||
| 6 | Neath and Swansea East[note 5] | Labour Party | 19.70% | Labour Party | ||
Green Party[edit]
Northern Ireland parties[edit]
Target seats requiring swings of under 10%:
See also[edit]
- List of target seats in the 2019 United Kingdom general election
- List of target seats in the 2017 United Kingdom general election
- List of target seats in the 2015 United Kingdom general election
Notes[edit]
- ^ Warrington South was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Kensington was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Beckenham was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Heywood and Middleton was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
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- ^ Preseli Pembrokeshire was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Plaid Cymru seat under new boundaries
- ^ Blyth Valley was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but its successor seat is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Pudsey was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Leeds West, is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ a b The incumbent MP is Kenny MacAskill from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
- ^ a b This seat was won by the Conservative Party in a by-election.
- ^ a b This seat was won by the Labour Party in a a by-election; part of this constituency was transferred to the new Hitchin constituency which is where the incumbent Labour MP stood.
- ^ Leeds North West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ a b c d e f Predecessor seat gained in by-election
- ^ Wyre and Preston North was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Lancaster and Fleetwood which was won by Labour, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ Eltham was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with Bromley and Chislehurst which was won by the Conservatives, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ The incumbent MP is Neale Hanvey from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
- ^ Kingston upon Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with Haltemprice and Howden, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ a b Rutherglen and Hamilton West was won by Labour in the 2023 by-election, but is still notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries.
- ^ a b The incumbent MP is Lee Anderson from Reform UK who defected from the Conservatives
- ^ The incumbent is Independent MP Angus MacNeil who was expelled from the SNP
- ^ This seat was won by the Workers Party in a by-election.
- ^ a b North East Fife was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat is considered ultra-marginal.
- ^ a b Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat was considered ultra-marginal but now has a notional SNP majority of over 3,000 votes.
- ^ Westmorland and Lonsdale was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ Hartlepool was won by the Conservatives in the 2021 Hartlepool by-election
- ^ Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ Gordon was won by the SNP in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries
References[edit]
- ^ Leach, Anna; Hoog, Niels de. "UK general election: the seats the Tories will lose if the polls are right". the Guardian. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Election 2024: The key seats to watch out for as date set for 4 July". Sky News. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
- ^ Shirreff, Lauren (22 May 2024). "How eight seats could define the general election". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
- ^ "List of general election top target seats, by party". The Independent. 16 January 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Conservative Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Labour Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 10 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ Eaton, George (29 January 2024). "How Labour's path to a majority has eased". New Statesman. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
- ^ "Liberal Democrat Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Liberal Democrats targeting Tory seats in election fight back". BBC News. 27 January 2023. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
- ^ "Could Reform UK surge sink Tory election hopes?". BBC News. 16 February 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ Penna, Dominic; Corfe, Ollie (28 February 2024). "Six graphs that show Reform UK could be kingmakers at the election". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Reform UK Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Reform UK leader Richard Tice to stand in Boston and Skegness". 23 May 2024. Retrieved 23 May 2024.
- ^ "Nigel Farage has milkshake thrown over him after election campaign launch in Clacton". Sky News. Retrieved 5 June 2024.
- ^ "SNP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling.
- ^ "Plaid Cymru Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Green Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ Walker, Peter (5 October 2023). "Greens head to Brighton targeting four seats at next election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "UUP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Sinn Fein Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "DUP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "SDLP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Alliance NI Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.