Lingkaran Survei Indonesia
Indonesian Survey Circle (read: LSI Denny J.A) is a political consultant and survey institute in Indonesia. LSI Denny J.A was established in 2005 by a group of public opinion makers, researchers, columnists, and survey specialists who have a long history of involvement in the field of research. Political surveys are conducted by LSI Denny J.A in both general and regional elections.
The "Achievement Award" was bestowed upon LSI Denny J.A by the Indonesian Christian University (UKI) in 2011 in recognition of its contributions to the fields of social sciences, political communication, and election politics in Indonesia.[1] This survey institute upholds the tradition of quantitative social science by predicting election results that have not yet transpired. Furthermore, LSI Denny J.A is acknowledged as a critical factor in the dissemination of intriguing research findings and the creation of national media headlines. It is also regarded as influencing the political communication and practical politics of Indonesia.
Historical background and founding
[edit]The first survey institute in Asia to concentrate on public opinion was Social Weather Stations in the Philippines, where Denny Januar Ali, known as Denny J.A., studied in 2002.
Social Weather Stations initiated a service similar to the Gallup Poll in the United States, but specifically for Asia. Denny JA acquired the necessary skills to oversee a survey institution during his tenure there. In 2002, Denny JA and his colleagues established the Indonesian Survey Institute after their return from the Philippines. Denny JA served as the institute's first executive director.
Nevertheless, Denny JA came to the realization that Indonesian leaders require not only the ability to interpret data and public opinion, but also the ability to secure public support in order to assume a leadership role. Survey institutions do not offer this second function, which is that of a political consultant. Consequently, Denny JA established the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) in 2005, becoming the first political consultant in Indonesia.[2]
At present, LSI Denny J.A has expanded into six subsidiaries: Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), Indonesian Image Consultants (KCI), Public Policy Survey Circle (LSKP), Indonesian Public Image (CPI), Public Image Advertising (CPA), Citra LSI Communications (Cikom), and Indonesian Strategy Survey (SIGI).
Pioneer in Political Party Survey
[edit]LSI Denny JA was the first to encourage political parties to undertake public opinion surveys in order to select their leadership candidates in the regional elections in 2005.
The Golkar Party was the first to employ LSI Denny JA's services to survey over 200 regional chief candidates in a variety of provinces, districts, and cities at that time.[3]
This occurrence established a tradition that persists to this day, as nearly all political parties conduct public opinion surveys to assist them in selecting the most suitable candidates for regional, legislative, and presidential elections.
Political Consultant
[edit]The Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI Denny J.A) is the first professional political consultant in Indonesia. In the past, there were numerous individuals or organizations that contributed to the success of parties or candidates. However, they do not identify themselves as professional political consultants. The first institution to refer to itself as a professional political consultant was LSI Denny J.A.[4]
The 2004 elections marked the beginning of the professionalization of politics. They were typically procured from commercial advertising agencies, including Hotline Advertising and Matari Advertising, which assisted political parties in the development of campaign messages and advertisements.
In 2005, LSI Denny J.A. began providing consulting services for politics, including services beyond advertising and candidate image building. It provides a comprehensive range of services to assist candidates in their pursuit of victory, including the development of strategies, vision, and mission statements, the organization of canvassing, the preparation of media campaigns, and the preparation of witnesses for elections.[4] Indo Barometer, Fox Indonesia, Polmark Indonesia, and Millenium Cipta Citra were among the numerous political consulting institutions that emerged in Indonesia following the establishment of LSI Denny J.A.
Political developments in Indonesia are inextricably linked to the emergence of political consultants. Indonesia entered a new era in which public officials were directly elected by the people after 2004. This included the president, members of the House of Representatives, DPRD, and DPD, mayors, regents, and governors. The people are directly involved in over 500 elections throughout Indonesia for Regional Head Elections (Pilkada). A total of approximately 19,000 seats were up for election in the legislative elections, which included the Central House of Representatives, Provincial DPRD, and Regency/City DPRD.
The process of engaging voters is conducted in a rational manner, beginning with voter mapping, identifying the assets of parties and candidates, selecting messages, creating advertisements and campaigns, Get Out the Vote (GOTV), and witness training. Clients (parties or candidates) can obtain an accurate understanding of their position through the application of these scientific methodologies. The approach to electors is conducted with explicit objectives, which can also result in a substantial reduction in election costs.
Quick Count
[edit]LSI Denny J.A is also recognized for aggressively performing quick computations (Quick Count) during elections and regional elections. Indonesia's area is vast, and many geographical locations are difficult to access. This causes election results to take a long time. General election/pilkada results are typically available 2 weeks to 1 month following the election. Previously, it took a long time to find out who won the General Election. The political scenario in the region is not favorable. Every day, candidate supporters attend the KPU headquarters to check on the status of their candidate's vote, which is often accompanied by rallies and acts of violence.
During that period, entrepreneurs and economic activities were also unable to conduct their operations while anticipating the result of the General Election. These challenges can be overcome with Quick Count.[5]
Quick Count is essentially a quick calculation performed utilizing scientifically collected samples from the polling station (TPS). If done correctly, the quick count results will deviate by less than 1% from the actual election results reported by the KPU. Quick count allows for faster calculations. Voters will find out who won the election at least 4 hours after the votes have been tallied.
It is one of the institutions that helps to popularize quick counts. This institution always holds a press conference and collaborates with national television and local media to report "live" the results of a quick count. In this sense, rapid counts are now widely regarded as a means of quickly determining election results. In the past, candidates and parties frequently challenged or questioned the outcome of the quick count. Currently, an intriguing phenomenon is underway. Candidates who lose in the rapid count frequently congratulate the (possible) winner. This allows for more stable and orderly local political settings.
Since 2005, LSI Denny J.A. has performed hundreds of quick counts with accurate and precise results. All quick counts were finished in less than 4 hours after voting ended. The results of the quick count are released at press conferences and in coordination with national and local television.
Election Achievements
[edit]LSI Denny JA has won five consecutive Indonesian presidential elections. With these successive wins, it has established itself as one of Indonesia's most significant and trusted survey institutions.[6]
LSI Denny JA received an award from the Indonesian-World Achievement Institute (LEPRID) and the Indonesian Record Museum (MURI) in 2024 for being the first and only political consultant in the world to win a presidential election in the same country five times in a row.
As a survey institution, LSI Denny JA assists political parties and candidates in identifying their strengths and weaknesses. A number of political parties, including the Golkar Party, incorporate LSI survey data when backing candidates in regional elections. Its first political consulting client was Ismeth Abdullah, Governor of the Riau Islands. LSI contributed to Ismeth Abdullah's victory in the 2005 Riau Province Regional Election. Following that, it has assisted numerous clients, regional chiefs, and legislative members. LSI Denny J.A has won 37 governorships and 98 regents/mayorships in Indonesia as of 2024.
| Year | Candidat | Primary Supporter Party |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono - Jusuf Kalla | Democratic |
| 2009 | Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono - Boediono | Democratic |
| 2014 | Joko Widodo - Jusuf Kalla | PDI-P |
| 2019 | Joko Widodo - Ma'ruf Amin | PDI-P |
| 2024 | Prabowo Subianto - Gibran Rakabuming | Gerindra |
| Year | Candidate | Province |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 1. Ismeth Abdullah | Kepri |
| 2006 | 2. Barnabas Suebu | Papua |
| 3. Ratu Atut Chosiyah | Banten | |
| 2007 | 4. Eko Maulana Ali | Bangka Belitung |
| 5. Fauzi Bowo | DKI Jakarta | |
| 6. Nur Alam | Southeast Sulawesi | |
| 7. Syahrul Yasin Limpo | South Sulawesi | |
| 8. Thaib Armaiyn | North Maluku | |
| 2008 | 9. Frans Lebu Raya | East Nusa Tenggara |
| 10. Karel Alberth Ralahalu | Maluku | |
| 11. Mangku Pastika | Bali | |
| 12. Rusli Zainal | Riau | |
| 13. Sjachroedin ZP | Lampung | |
| 14. Tuan Guru Bajang | West Nusa Tenggara | |
| 2009 | 15. Soekarwo | East Java |
| 2010 | 16. Agusrin | Bengkulu |
| 17. Hasan Basri Agus | Jambi | |
| 18. Rudi Arifin | South Kalimantan | |
| 19. Sinyo Sarundajang | North Sulawesi | |
| 20. Teras Narang | Central Kalimantan | |
| 2011 | 21. Longki Djanggola | Central Sulawesi |
| 22. Ratu Atut Chosiyah | Banten | |
| 2012 | 23. Eko Maulana Ali | Bangka Belitung |
| 2013 | 24. Awang Faroek | East Kalimantan |
| 25. Gatot Pujo Nugroho | North Sumatera | |
| 26. Said Assagaff | Maluku | |
| 27. Soekarwo | East Jawa | |
| 28. Syahrul Yasin Limpo | South Sulawesi | |
| 29. Tuan Guru Bajang | West Nusa Tenggara | |
| 2015 | 30. Irwan Prayitno | West Sumatera |
| 2017 | 31. Dominggus Mandacan | West Papua |
| 32. Prabowo Subianto (untuk Anies Baswedan) | DKI Jakarta | |
| 2018 | 33. Edy Rahmayadi | West Sumatera |
| 34. Ganjar Pranowo | Central Java | |
| 35. Murad Ismail | Maluku | |
| 36. Sutarmidji | West Kalimantan | |
| 2020 | 37. Dondokambey | North Sulawesi |
| Year | Candidate and the Regions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Telly Tjanggulung
(Mitra, N. Sulawesi) |
Eddy Santana Putra
(Palembang, S. Sumatra) |
Rendra Kresna
(Malang, E. Java) |
Itoc Tochija
(Cimahi, W. Java) |
Ishak Mekki
(Ogan Komering Ilir, S. Sumatra) |
| Arwin
(Siak, Riau) |
Herman Abdullah
(Pekanbaru, Riau) |
Ahmad Dahlan
(Batam, Riau Islands) |
Marlina Moha Siahaan
(Bolang Mongondow, N. Sulawesi) |
Daeng Rusnandi
(Natuna, Riau Islands) | |
| M.J. Papilaja
(Ambon, Maluku) |
Dada Rosada
(Bandung, Jabar) |
Jimmy Rimba Rogi
(Manado, N. Sulawesi) |
Rahmat Yasin
(Kab. Bogor, W. Java) |
Probo Yulastoro
(Cilacap, C. Java) | |
| Abdullah Hich
(Tj. Jabung Timur, Jambi) |
Imdaad Hamid
(Balikpapan, E. Kalimantan) |
Klemen Tinal
(Mimika, Papua) |
Tagore Abu Bakar
(Bener Meriah, Aceh) |
T. Zulkarnaeni
(Nagan Raya, Aceh) | |
| Mochtar Mohammad
(Kota Bekasi, W. Java) |
Alex Noerdin
(Musi Banyuasin, S. Sumatra) |
Andreas Duli Manuk
(Lembata, E. Nusa Tenggara) |
Kalamudin Djinap
(Muara Enim, S. Sumatra) |
Junaedi
(Pemalang, C. Java) | |
| Adriansyah
(Tanah Laut, S. Kalimantan) |
Hasan Basri Agus
(Sorolangun, Jambi) |
Riduan Effendi
(Lubuk Linggau, S. Sumatra) |
Suryatati A. Manan
(Tj. Pinang, Riau Islands) |
Ibnu Hasyim
(Gayo Luwes, Aceh) | |
| Rusdi Masse
(Sidrap, S. Sulawesi) |
Wahidin Halim
(Tangerang, W. Java) |
||||
| 2010 | A. Azwar Anas
(Banyuwangi, E. Java) |
Damsik Ladjalani
(Touna, S. Sulawesi) |
Zulkifli Muhadli
(Sumbawa, W. Nusa Tenggara) |
Sompie Singal
(Minahasa Utara, N. Sulawesi) |
Vicky Lumentut
(Manado, N. Sulawesi) |
| Adi Darma
(Bontang, E. Kalimantan) |
Ismail Thomas
(Kutai Barat, E. Kalimantan) |
Syaharie Jaang
(Samarinda, E. Kalimantan) |
Haryanti Sutrisno
(Kab. Kediri, E. Java) |
Rita Widyasari
(Kutai Kartanegara, E. Kalimantan) | |
| Jamaludin Malik
(Sumbawa, W. Nusa Tenggara) |
Erzaldi Rosman
(Bangka Tengah, Bangka) |
Yusak Yaluwo
(Boven Digoel, Papua) |
|||
| 2011 | Richard Louhenapessy
(Ambon, Maluku) |
Sukandar
(Tebo, Jambi) |
Isran Noor
(Kutai Timur, E. Kalimantan) |
Syamsuar
(Siak, Riau) |
Cek Endra
(Sarolangun, Jambi) |
| 2012 | Budi Budiman
(Tasikmalaya, W. Java) |
Idza Priyanti
(Brebes, C. Java) |
Dedi Mulyadi
(Purwakarta, W. Java) |
Anwar Hafid
(Morowali, SE. Sulawesi) |
|
| 2013 | Irsyad Yusuf
(Pasuruan, E. Java) |
Bambang Alamsyah
(Tanah Laut, S. Kalimantan) |
Ahmad Safei
(Kolaka, SE. Sulawesi) |
Danny Pomanto
(Makassar, S. Sulawesi) |
Nadalsyah
(Barito Utara, C. Kalimantan) |
| Fashar M.P
(Bone, S. Sulawesi) |
Budi Antoni
(Empat Lawang, S. Sulawesi) |
Ade Uu Sukaesih
(Kota Banjar, W. Java) |
Tb Haerul Jaman
(Kota Serang, W. Java) |
Rahmat Yasin
(Kab. Bogor, W. Java) | |
| Zaini Arony
(Lombok Barat, W. Nusa Tenggara) |
M. Anton
(Kota Malang, E. Java) |
||||
| 2015 | Najmul Akhyar
(Lombok Utara, W. Nusa Tenggara) |
Rendra Kresna
(Kab. Malang, E. Java) |
Azwar Anas
(Banyuwangi, E. Java) |
Supian Hadi
(Kotawaringin Timur, C. Kalimantan) |
Mian
(N. Bengkulu, Bengkulu) |
| Rita Widyasari
(Kutai Kertanegara, E. Kalimantan) |
Syaharie Jaang
(Samarinda, E. Kalimantan) |
Haryanti Sutrisno
(Kediri, E. Java) |
JR Saragih
(Simalungun, N. Sumatra) |
Muhtarom
(Madiun, E. Java) | |
| FX Yapan
(Kutai Barat, E. Kalimantan) |
Sambari Halim
(Kab. Gresik, E. Java) |
||||
| 2018 | Ade Uu Sukaersih
(Kota Banjar, W. Java) |
Ilham Syah Aziklin
(Bantaeng, S. Sulawesi) |
Iskandar
(Ogan Komering Ilir, S. Sumatra) |
Sukiman Azmy
(Lombok Timur, E. Nusa Tenggara) |
Herdiat Sunarya
(Kab. Ciamis, W. Java) |
| Dewanti Rumpoko
(Kota Baru, E. Java) |
Noormiliyani AS
(Barito Kuala, S. Kalimantan) |
Benny Laos
(Kab. Morotasi, N. Maluku) |
Richard Lohenapessy
(Ambon, Maluku) |
Budi Budiman
(Tasikmalaya, W. Java) | |
| 2020 | Adnan Purichta Ichan
(Gowa, S. Sulawesi) |
Sunaryanta
(Gunungkidul, DI Yogyakarta) |
Jeje Wiradinata
(Pangandaran, West Java) |
Hendi Siswanto
(Jember, East Java) |
Indah Putri Indriani
(Luwu Utara, S. Sulawesi) |
| Mian
(Bengkulu Utara, Bengkulu) |
Halikinnoor
(Kotawaringin, Cen. Kalimantan) |
Suardi Saleh
(Bamu, S. Sulawesi) |
Ipuk Fiestiandani
(Banyuwangi, East Java) |
Fatmawati Rusdi
(Makassar, S. Sulawesi) | |
A number of accolades
[edit]MURI Records
[edit]In addition to the LEPRID award, LSI Denny JA obtained ten records from MURI for the most accurate survey and quick count results with the least deviation from the General Election Commission's (KPU) official results.
One of the most notable accomplishments is a 0% difference in regional elections and a 0.07% difference in the 2024 presidential election, demonstrating exceptional accuracy in predicting election outcomes.[7]
Guinness World Records and Political Education
[edit]In addition to focusing on presidential and regional head elections, LSI Denny JA is involved in political education. LSI Denny JA was recognized by the Guinness Book of World Records in 2018 for the largest political education program, showcasing their commitment to increasing political understanding and citizen involvement in Indonesia.[8]
Innovation in Political Campaigns
[edit]LSI Denny JA is Indonesia's first survey institution to launch a political campaign through social media. This idea transformed political campaign techniques in Indonesia, increasing public participation and involvement. Denny JA won honors from TIME Magazine[9] and Twitter for his ingenuity in using technology for political campaigns.[10]
In 2014, LSI Denny JA launched Quick Count on Twitter, and in 2019, they developed the use of memes in political campaigns, allowing campaign concerns to spread quickly throughout social media.
Since 2024, LSI Denny JA has created an application for reading public opinion on the internet and social media. This program is intended to monitor trends and public mood in real time, delivering more accurate and timely data to support political campaign plans and decisions.
The Indonesian Public Opinion Research Association (AROPI) and Judicial Review
[edit]Denny JA also established the Indonesian Public Opinion Research Association (AROPI) in 2007. One of AROPI's achievements was conducting the first judicial review at the Constitutional Court in 2009. This judicial review succeeded in repealing the law that barred quick counting on election day.[11]
Denny JA, AROPI's general chairman, claimed that the quick count was the most significant scientific contribution of researchers and should be carried out on voting day. The Constitutional Court granted this plea, allowing the quick count to be carried out on the day of the direct presidential election.
Mini MBA in Political Marketing
[edit]LSI Denny JA, in collaboration with the Bandung Institute of Technology School of Business Management (SBM ITB) and Kuncie (a Telkomsel affiliate), create the first program for Mini MBA in political marketing in 2023.
The objective of this program is to disseminate information regarding political consultations and public opinion surveys, and it has now entered its fourth batch.
One of the primary books utilized in this mini MBA teaching is Denny JA's "Creating A Political Legacy: Introducing the 10 P Model – Theory and Practice of Political Marketing" (2020),[12] which delineates the most recent theory on political marketing.
International Awards
[edit]Denny JA and LSI were recognized on an international scale for their contributions to the disciplines of political consulting and surveying, in addition to national awards. This honor reflects LSI Denny JA's high standards and acknowledges its professionalism in the global community.
References
[edit]- ^ Burhani, Ruslan (1 December 2011). "Denny JA received an award from UKI". Antara News. p. 1.
- ^ Anugrah, Dea (25 April 2018). "Political Surveys in Indonesia: A History of Shift from Academic to Business". Tirto.id. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ Azwar, Rully Chairul (2009). Golkar Party communication politics in three eras: from a hegemonic party to a "market" oriented party (in Indonesian) (1st ed.). Grasindo. p. 206. ISBN 9789790256903. OL 23219452M.
- ^ a b Qodari, M. (2010). Aspinall, Edward; Mietzner, Marcus (eds.). The Professionalisation of Politics: The Growing Role of Polling Organisations and Political Consultants (1st ed.). Singapore: ISEAS Publishing. p. 349. doi:10.1355/9789814279918. ISBN 978-981-4279-90-1.
- ^ Estok, Melissa (2002). The Quick Count and Election Observation (PDF). Washington: National Democratic Institute. ISBN 1-880134-31-4.
- ^ Editorial, Team. "Denny JA Receives The Legend Award Wins Presidential Election Five Times In A Row". Voice of Indonesia.
- ^ Nugraha, Bayu (21 March 2024). "Denny JA's LSI Quick Count and the General Election Commission's Real Count differ by a mere 0.07 percent". Viva.co.id.
- ^ "Largest politics lesson". Guinness World Records. 16 August 2018. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ Staff, Time (5 March 2015). "The 30 Most Influential People on the Internet". Time. Retrieved 28 June 2024.
- ^ Lukman, Ericko (11 December 2014). "Here are some of Indonesia's most memorable tweets in 2014". Tech in Asia. Retrieved 28 June 2024.
- ^ Mahkamah, Konstitusi (6 July 2009). "The Constitutional Court Permits Quick Count at 2009 Presidential Election". Mahkamah Konstitusi. Retrieved 28 June 2024.
- ^ J.A, Denny (August 2020). Creating A Political Legacy: Introducing The 10 P Model – Theory And Practice – Of Political Marketing (2nd ed.). Jakarta: Cerah Budaya Indonesia. ISBN 9786025896866.
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