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Three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal

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Three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal
"Three-Phase Proposal for a Durable Peace in the Middle East"
U.S. president Joe Biden announces Israel's three-phase ceasefire proposal.
Context
Drafted31 May 2024; 5 months ago (2024-05-31)
Mediators
Parties

The three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal is a proposed prisoner exchange and armistice proposal to end the Israel–Hamas war. The deal was drafted by mediators from Egypt and Qatar on May 5th 2024, and endorsed by Hamas on May 6th 2024. On May 31st 2024, U.S. president Joe Biden presented the deal, incorrectly[1][2] stating it was an Israeli proposal; the proposals are nearly identical.[3] The proposal is a serial initiative in three stages, beginning with a six-week ceasefire, the release of all Israelis being held in Gaza in exchange for some Palestinian detainees, a permanent ceasefire, Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, and a reconstruction process lasting from three to five years.

In the proposal, Hamas would release thirty-three Israeli hostages in the first stage who met certain humanitarian criteria; if there were not enough living hostages that met this criteria, Hamas would release deceased hostages. The humanitarian criteria were the release of all remaining women and children, wounded and elderly hostages. In exchange, Israel would release 30–50 Palestinians (starting with children and women) for every Israeli released. During the first stage, Israel would have to allow "sufficient" quantities of humanitarian aid, allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes and start to make a phased withdrawal from Gaza.[4] During the temporary ceasefire, talks would begin between both parties for a more permanent cessation of hostilities. In the second stage, Israel would accept a permanent ceasefire and Hamas would then release the remaining living male hostages, both civilians and soldiers, for an exchange of Palestinian prisoners.[4] In the third stage, the remains of deceased Israeli hostages would be released. Under the May 5 proposal Israel would commit to lifting the blockade on the Gaza Strip,[5][4] but this commitment is not present in the May 31 proposal.[6]

On June 10, the United Nations Security Council supported the proposal as Resolution 2735.[7][8] In late-June 2024, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Israel was open only to a partial ceasefire that did not include ending the war in Gaza.[1] The Netanyahu administration was accused of sabotaging ceasefire talks.[2] Senior Israeli officials have suggested that the Israeli government is not seeking a hostage deal but is instead seeking the annexation of large parts of the Gaza Strip.[9]

Background

Initial ceasefire and mediation

Main article: 2023 Israel–Hamas ceasefire

Following the 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel and Israel's resulting declaration of war on Hamas, Egypt and Jordan began coordinating a response to avert an escalation of the conflict.[10] Attempts to reach a ceasefire were raised at the United Nations Security Council in October; Israel requested the resignation of United Nations secretary-general António Guterres after he referred to Israel's retaliation as unjustified collective punishment.[11] After Israel's invasion of the Gaza Strip, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire, equating a halt in fighting to the a surrender to Hamas and terrorism.[12] United States secretary of state Antony Blinken presented "humanitarian pauses" to countries in the region[13] but stated a ceasefire would allow Hamas to initiate a second attack on Israel.[14] An agreement was nearly reached, but forfeited after Israel's invasion of Gaza.[15]

In a press conference in November, Netanyahu stated a ceasefire would necessitate a return of Israeli hostages taken during the attack.[16] Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt intensified efforts to reach a ceasefire;[17] at the Joint Arab Islamic Extraordinary Summit, Iran and Saudi Arabia urged for a ceasefire.[18] The Washington Post reported on 18 November that the U.S. was nearing an agreement to release hostages and halt fighting, drafted during discussions in Doha, Qatar.[19] On 22 November, Israel and Hamas exchanged hostages for prisoners and held a four-day ceasefire.[20] U.S. president Joe Biden was critical to restoring negotiations, according to The Wall Street Journal.[21] Israel and Hamas extended the ceasefire for an additional two days and released additional hostages and detainees,[22] but Israel resumed its offensive after Qatari mediators could not resolve differences in terms.[23]

The U.S. government began urging Israel and Hamas to negotiate, according to National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby.[24] In December, Egypt provided a ceasefire plan obtained by the Associated Press that would gradually release hostages and form a Palestinian government to administer Gaza and the occupied West Bank, relinquishing control from Hamas.[25] Several days later, NPR reported on a revised proposal that would remove references to the governance of Gaza and the occupied West Bank.[26] Efforts at the United Nations Security Council failed to offer a ceasefire over concerns relating to aid monitoring by the United Nations.[27] By January, several Israeli commanders expressed beliefs that releasing hostages could only be achieved through diplomacy, according to The New York Times; general Gadi Eisenkot stated publicly that Israel should "rescue civilians, ahead of killing an enemy".[28]

Further ceasefire negotiations

Throughout January 2024, Egyptian and Qatari mediators suggested several proposals, ranging from weeks to months. Hamas officials stated the remaining hostages, estimated to number over a hundred, would be released if a favorable and comprehensive ceasefire was offered; Netanyahu rejected a permanent ceasefire if Hamas would be allowed to govern Gaza. Israeli officials suggested a permanent ceasefire if Hamas leaders went into exile, a deal opposed by Hamas.[29] On 25 January, the U.S. announced Central Intelligence Agency director William J. Burns would meet with Israeli, Egyptian, and Qatari officials. According to the U.S., Israel proposed a sixty-day ceasefire.[30] In discussions, officials discussed exchanging hostages, enhancing the Palestinian Authority, and improving Israel–Saudi Arabia relations in exchange for support of a Palestinian state.[31]

Following the meeting in Paris, Hamas chief political leader Ismail Haniyeh stated the organization was considering a deal, but remained committed to a withdrawal of Israeli forces in Gaza, a demand rejected by Netanyahu.[32] Al-Aqsa reported that Hamas continued to discuss the proposal through 4 February as Antony Blinken arrived in Saudi Arabia to advance a framework on a ceasefire.[33] In a meeting with Israeli minister without portfolio Benny Gantz, U.S. vice president Kamala Harris urged for a ceasefire and the release of hostages.[34] By 7 March, ceasefire discussions did not appear to progress.[35] According to Axios, Hamas prioritized returning Palestinians to northern Gaza in discussions.[36] Leading up to Ramadan, mediators from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar increased efforts to reach a ceasefire; Burns met with Barnea in Jordan on 8 March to discuss a hostage deal.[37] Netanyahu rejected Hamas's counteroffer as "ludicrous", but remained open to negotiating.[38]

On 18 March, Israel and Hamas began negotiating for the first time since December.[39] Hamas eased its demands, removing an agreement to hold a permanent ceasefire.[40] A United Nations warning of an imminent famine furthered discussions to reach a ceasefire.[41] The United States abstained from voting on United Nations Security Council Resolution 2728, a resolution that demands a ceasefire during Ramadan and the unconditional release of hostages, allowing the vote to pass but creating a conflict with Netanyahu.[42] By 26 March, negotiations had stalled; Israel accused Hamas of stalling discussions, encouraged by the U.S.'s abstention of Resolution 2728. Burns, Sheikh Mohammed, Burnea, and Egyptian officials met in Doha to discuss a proposal that included an increased number of released Palestinian prisoners.[43]

Aid convoy attack and U.S. policy change

See also: World Central Kitchen aid convoy attack

On 1 April, Israeli strikes on a World Central Kitchen aid convoy killed seven workers.[44] Biden condemned the attack, stating Israel has "not done enough to protect civilians".[45] In a call three days after the strikes, Biden told Netanyahu to seek an "immediate ceasefire", warning that the U.S. could shift its policy on the war if Israel does not adhere to his demands.[46] Biden urged Egypt and Qatar to pressure Hamas to reach a temporary ceasefire and the release of hostages.[47] On 7 April, Israel withdrew the 98th Paratroopers Division from Khan Yunis, significantly reducing Israel's presence in southern Gaza. According to Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant, the withdrawal was intended to reallocate resources towards a planned invasion of Rafah.[48]

Negotiation process

April: Initial discussions

In early April, talks appeared to have been stalled on at least two issues. Hamas insisted it will only release the hostages in exchange for a permanent ceasefire, but Israel said it would only agree to a temporary one.[49] Palestinians also demanded that Gazans be allowed to return to their homes in Gaza, which Israel rejected.[49] On 8 April 2024, Central Intelligence Agency director William J. Burns presented a proposal to release forty hostages in exchange for a six-week ceasefire to Mossad director David Barnea, Qatari prime minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, and General Intelligence Service director Abbas Kamel.[50] Hamas rejected the proposal for temporary truce, and once again demanded a permanent ceasefire.[51] On April 15, a senior US Congressman Steny Hoyer threatened that the US "will reevaluate its relationship with Qatar" if it doesn't pressure Hamas to release the hostages.[52] Qatar responded by saying it will reevalutate its role as a mediator.[53][54] On 18 April, CIA Director Burns blamed Hamas for lack of a deal, pointing out that Gazan civilians would get some humanitarian relief under the current proposal. [55] On 26 April, Hamas repeated that it was "serious" about a deal, but only if it included a permanent ceasefire.[56]

On 27 April, Hamas received an Israeli ceasefire proposal.[57] According to Axios, the agreement included "a willingness to discuss" a "sustainable calm" in Gaza after an initial hostage release.[58] Yet on 30 April, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said "The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question."[59] Netanyahu promised to invade Rafah “with or without a deal”.[59] Two days later, Israel appeared willing to accept an initial release of thirty-three hostages[60] as U.S. president Joe Biden reiterated urges for Hamas's support of Israel's proposal to Egypt and Qatar.[61]

U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken appeared in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to garner support for a ceasefire from the Gulf Cooperation Council's members.[62] Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to invade Rafah regardless of a ceasefire.[63] Blinked said Israel's offer was "extraordinarily generous" and blamed Hamas for not accepting it.[64] Hamas responded that "Even the Israeli negotiating team admitted Netanyahu was the one who was hindering reaching an agreement".[64] On May 1, Hamas rejected the Israeli proposal, but promised to make a counter-proposal, while also saying that Israel's Rafah invasion could put the talks in jeopardy.[65] On Telegram, Hamas chief political leader Ismail Haniyeh said on 2 May the organization viewed the proposal with "positive spirit" and planned to send a delegate to Egypt.[66] According to a text message obtained by The New York Times, former Hamas military leader Husam Badran wrote two days later the organization's representatives approached Israel's proposal with "great positivity".[67] Discussions stalled by 5 May in a purported "crisis" over the duration of a ceasefire; Hamas requested a permanent ceasefire, while Netanyahu was open to only a temporary ceasefire.[68]

Netanyahu said the Rafah offensive would happen "with or without a deal".[59]

Early May: Egyptian–Qatari proposal

On May 2, Hamas outlined three points of Israel's proposal that it disagreed with.[69] On May 4 and May 5, talks were hosted in Cairo, which were attended by Egyptians, Qataris, Hamas, and a US delegation led by CIA director William Burns. Although Hamas also sent a delegation, the Americans don't directly talk to Hamas, but communicate their proposals through intermediaries.[70] Benjamin Netanyahu decided to not send an Israeli delegation.[69]

Previous negotiation had failed because Hamas sought a permanent end to the war, while Israel would only agree to a temporary ceasefire. The Egyptians and Qataris aimed to bridge this divide by separating the ceasefire into three phases, with negotiations for a "sustainable calm" happening only in the second phase.[70] The wording "sustainable calm" was crafted by the Americans so that Israel would not have to commit to a permanent ceasefire upfront.[70] The United States official hoped that the first 42 ceasefire would lead to something "more enduring".[70] On May 6, John Kirby, an advisor to Joe Biden, confirmed that CIA Director William Burns had played a key role in the negotiations that brought about the proposal.[70][71]

On May 4, Qatar and Egypt presented the three stage proposal. It was accepted on May 5 by Hamas.[72] Netanyahu said the proposal was "far" from Israeli demands, but promised to continue negotiations.[72] Israeli and Palestinian teams went to Cairo for further discussions. The Palestinian team included Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front.[73] Hamas said it was committed to the May 5 deal it accepted, but would not entertain changes to the deal.[74] On May 9, Palestinian and Israeli negotiating teams, along with CIA Director Richard Burns, all left Cairo without an agreement.[75]

Late May to June: "Israeli proposal" and United Nations Security Council resolution

On 31 May 2024, Biden announced a proposal drafted by Israel's war cabinet in the State Dining Room of the White House, endorsing the plan.[76] According to Al Jazeera, Israel's proposal is nearly identical to the Egyptian-Qatari agreement.[77] The U.S. shared the plan with Hamas through Qatar.[78] Blinken spoke with his counterparts in Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to garner support for the proposal.[79] The United States, Egypt, and Qatar issued a joint statement on 1 June urging Israel and Hamas to finalize an agreement.[80] According to The Wall Street Journal, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's intentions to secure the longevity of the organization conflict with Israel's intentions to defeat Hamas.[81] United States National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated Israel would agree to the proposal if Hamas accepts the deal.[82] The following day, an Israeli official stated a permanent ceasefire would "only happen after our objectives are met including destroying Hamas' military and governing capabilities".[83]

According to U.S. officials, Netanyahu is unwilling to support a ceasefire and the release of hostages out of concerns that he will lose his premiership. Hamas expressed interest in operating within a proposal that includes a withdrawal of Israeli forces, a permanent truce, the return of Palestinians, and a prisoner exchange.[84] On 1 June, Netanyahu stated the war would not end until Hamas is defeated militarily and operationally[85] and a permanent ceasefire as a "nonstarter".[86] On 2 June, an aide to Netanyahu stated Israel agreed to Biden's three-phase ceasefire proposal, but reserved that it was "not a good deal".[87]

On 10 June, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2735 backing the 31 May proposal, noting Israel's acceptance thereof and calling on Hamas to accept the proposed agreement as well.[88] The following day, Hamas and Islamic Jihad replied to the resolution with amendments to the proposal, including a timeline for a permanent ceasefire and troop withdrawals,[89] and the Office of the Israeli Prime Minister stated, "The claim that Israel agreed to end the war before achieving all its goals is a total lie".[90] The United States responded to the Palestinians' proposed amendments by calling them unworkable.[91] The day after that, Hamas denied adding any new ideas to the ceasefire proposal.[92] On 21 June, Hamas stated, "The priority is to stop the criminal war on our people",[93] and three days later, Netanyahu stated Israel would only accept a partial ceasefire that would not end the war.[94]

July to present: Philadelphi Corridor

In July, Netanyahu announced that Israel would not end its occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor, which constitutes Gaza Strip's border with Egypt. This new demand contradicted the May proposal announced by Biden.[95] The May proposal envisioned Israel withdrawing from the entirety of the Gaza Strip in the second stage;[95] back in May, Israel had not yet captured the corridor.[96] Hamas rejected Netanyahu's new demand, calling on Israel to "stick to agreed ceasefire plan."[97]

Palestinians, including Hamas, see the demand for occupying the corridor as the beginning of a lasting military occupation and a return of Israeli settlements to Gaza.[98] Indeed Israeli cabinet ministers in Gaza have openly stated they want Israelis to settle Gaza.[98] Netanyahu said he wanted to maintain the occupation of the corridor in order to prevent weapons smuggling. But other said this demand made no sense, and was more likely being used by Netanyahu so he could cling to power.[99][100] Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the Israeli military could always recapture the corridor in 8 hours if it needed to.[100] In addition, Israeli general warned it would be dangerous to leave Israeli soldiers permanently stationed there.[99]

In addition to the Palestinians, Egypt was also deeply opposed to a permanent Israeli occupation of the Philadelphi corridor, although it would tolerate a phased Israeli withdrawal from the corridor.[101] Egypt sees an Israeli presence at the corridor to be a violation of the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, under which each side is allowed to have only a small number of soldiers in the border zone.[102] At one point in August, Egypt even refused to pass along an Israeli proposal to Hamas, deeming the proposal to be objectionable.[101]

Another complicating factor were Israel's military continued operations in Gaza City, which negotiators warned could have "disastrous repercussions" for their talks.[103]

In an early-September 2024 Haaretz report, an unnamed coalition partner of Netanyahu stated that the Israeli PM had decided several weeks earlier he did not want a ceasefire deal.[104] A report by Channel 12 found Netanyahu had sought "relentlessly" to block a ceasefire deal.[105] Yedioth Ahronoth stated that Netanyahu had sabotaged a hostage ceasefire deal in July 2024 by adding a number of additional last minute demands.[106] A report by U.S. authorities privately acknowledged in mid-September 2024 that the Biden Administration would fail to negotiate a ceasefire before the end of its term.[107] According to unnamed U.S. officials, Joe Biden believed Netanyahu did not want a ceasefire and was rather extending the conflict to help both himself and Donald Trump politically.[108]

In November 2024, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated, "In my estimation, a political settlement will be reached by the end of the year".[109] October 2024, U.S. officials said that they believed that Sinwar was no longer interested in a ceasefire deal with Israel.[110] These officials said that Sinwar had become "inflexible" and "fatalistic" as the war had progressed, adding that he was hoping for it to expand into a wider regional conflict involving Iran.

Provisions

The proposal is divided into three stages, each 42 days (six weeks) long. Its aims are the release of all Israeli captives – whether civilian or military, alive or deceased; release of some number of Palestinian prisoners; return of "sustainable calm"; and the end of Israeli occupation and siege of the Gaza Strip.

First stage

In this stage, Hamas would release 33 Israeli captives. It would start with releasing all living Israeli children (under 19), all living civilian women, all living elderly (over age 50) Israelis, and all living female Israeli soldiers.[111] In return, Israel would release 30 Palestinian children and women for every Israeli civilian released.[112] If the total number of alive children, women, elderly and female soldiers is less than 33, then it would make up for that difference by releasing deceased bodies of Israelis.[111]

Israel would have to allow the entry of "sufficient" quantities of humanitarian aid: 600 trucks per day, of which 300 are for the north.[112] Included in this are 50 fuel trucks "including the fuel necessary for operating the power plant, trade, and equipment needed for rubble removal, rehabilitation and operation of hospitals, health centres and bakeries in all areas of the Gaza Strip".[112]

Simultaneous to the captive exchanges, displaced unarmed[111] Palestinians shall be able to return to their homes in Gaza, and Israel would gradually withdraw from some (but not all) parts of the Gaza Strip.[112] Israel would not conduct military flights over for 10-12 hours per day.[4]

Second stage

In the second state, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis, including both civilians and soldiers.[4] In return, Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinians prisoners. The prisoner exchanges would be conditioned on both parties agreeing to and announcing a "sustainable calm" and the withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip.[4]

Third stage

In this stage, Hamas would release all the remains of deceased Israeli captives, in exchange for Israel releasing the remains of deceased Palestinian bodies that it holds.[111] Israel would end the blockade of the Gaza Strip and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.[4]

Supervision and guarantors

Under the proposal, activities in the Gaza Strip would be supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations,[111] who along with the United States would guarantee the proposal and its provisions. Hamas stated that they received promises that both Egypt and Biden would guarantee the implementation of the deal.[70]

Responses

Israel

In Israel, the families of Israeli captives held by Hamas called on the US to pressure Netanyahu into accepting the Egyptian–Qatari proposal.[113] Protests broke out in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.[113] Protestors blocked the Ayalon Highway in Tel Aviv, demanding the government reach a deal to secure the release of Israeli captives.[114]

Minister of national security Itamar Ben-Gvir and minister of finance Bezalel Smotrich[115] threatened to resign if Israel agreed to the war cabinet's proposal prior to the destruction of Hamas.[84] Opposition leader Yair Lapid offered to support the government if the proposal was signed.[115] Thousands gathered in Tel Aviv the following day to express support of the deal and criticism towards Netanyahu.[79] Shas, an ultra-orthodox Jewish party and Netanyahu's biggest coalition partner, said it would give its full support to the deal.[116]

Palestine

After Hamas's acceptance of the proposal, crowds gathered to celebrate in Rafah, Gaza Strip.[117][118] On the Palestinian side the proposal was supported by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.[119] Ordinary Gazans expressed support for the proposal.[120] According to Reuters, senior Hamas officials expressed skepticism that Israel was serious about reaching a deal.[121]

United States

The proposal was co-signed by pro-Israel representatives Brad Schneider and Steny Hoyer and Israeli-critical senator Peter Welch and representative Greg Casar. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer supported the deal. The proposal was opposed by senator Lindsey Graham, arguing that defeating Hamas was non-negotiable. Representative Mike Waltz argued that Hamas would be strengthened by continued discussions with Israel. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene referred to the plan as "Hamas First".[122]

After the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, President Joe Biden said the assassination "doesn't help" the Gaza ceasefire talks.[123]

International

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed Hamas's acceptance of the Egyptian–Qatari proposal and hoped Israel will do the same.[124] French president Emmanuel Macron urged Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas.[125] UAE's Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan supported Egyptian-Qatari mediations and hoped the proposal would result in ending both the war and the suffering of Palestinians.[126] The Israeli proposal was endorsed by French president Emmanuel Macron, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, and diplomats from the United Kingdom and Germany.[79]

On 31 July 2024, Egypt's Foreign Ministry said that the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh indicates that Israel has no political will for a ceasefire.[127] Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani asked "how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?"[128]

Analysis

Marwan Bishara, the senior political analyst at Al Jazeera English stated the proposed ceasefire contained a strategy of "ambiguity" but that "the Israeli prime minister himself says Israel won’t stop the war until it destroys Hamas... So while everyone in Washington is trying to spin it as if there is confliction and controversy, there really isn’t. It’s quite simple: Netanyahu does not want to end the war."[129]

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