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2028 United States presidential election

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2028 United States presidential election
← 2024 November 7, 2028 2032 →
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
 
Party Republican Democratic
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2028 electoral map, based on the results of the 2020 census.
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the United States on November 7, 2028,[1] to elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. The victors of the election are expected to be inaugurated on January 20, 2029.

After winning the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections, Donald Trump is ineligible for a third term, due to the provisions of the Twenty-second Amendment. Trump's second term expires at noon on January 20, 2029, when the winners of the election will be inaugurated as the president and vice president of the United States.

As the vice president-elect of the United States, JD Vance is likely to be considered a frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president, with governors Ron DeSantis of Florida, Brian Kemp of Georgia and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia as potential contenders.

Vice President Kamala Harris, governors Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Wes Moore of Maryland, Gavin Newsom of California, JB Pritzker of Illinois, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan along with representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota are considered potential contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Background

See also: 2024 United States presidential election and 2024 United States elections
Donald Trump will be term-limited once his second term ends at noon on January 20, 2029

The Republican Party, represented by Donald Trump and JD Vance, is expected to come to power in the United States in January 2025 following the 2024 election. Trump, who was elected president in 2016 but lost a re-election bid in 2020 to Joe Biden, defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, who began her campaign following President Joe Biden's exit from the 2024 election. Trump's victory was credited to a surge in inflation and an immigration crisis.[2] Republicans secured control of the Senate and retained a House majority.[3]

Electoral system

The president and vice president of the United States are elected through the Electoral College, a group of 538 presidential electors who convene to vote for the president and vice president. The number of electors in the Electoral College is determined through the total number of senators and representatives with an additional three representatives for Washington, D.C.. Electors cast votes for the president and vice president; the winner is elected through a majority of 270 votes. If the election ends in a tie, a contingent election occurs, in which the House of Representatives votes on the president and the Senate votes on the vice president. Forty-eight states use a winner-take-all system in which states award all of their electors to the winner of the popular vote. In Maine and Nebraska, two votes are allocated to the winner of the popular vote, while each of the individual congressional districts have one vote. Electoral votes are certified by state electors in December and by Congress on January 6.[4]

Presidential candidates are selected in a presidential primary, conducted through primary elections or caucuses. The results of primary elections, ran by state governments, and caucuses, ran by state parties, bind convention delegates to candidates. The Democratic Party mandates a proportional allocation if a candidate receives at least fifteen percent in a given congressional district, while the Republican Party gives state parties the authority to allocate all of the delegates to a candidate within the "proportionality window", set by the first two weeks of March. After the window, state parties may set individual rules.[5] A brokered convention occurs when a candidate does not receive a majority of votes on the first round of voting,[6] or when a candidate withdraws.[7]

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years of age, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years.[8] The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice.[9][10] Trump is ineligible to seek a third term.[11]

Electoral map

Main article: Red states and blue states
This map shows how partisan states are by the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Swing states are the states in lighter colors.

Most U.S. states are not highly competitive in presidential elections, often voting consistently for the same party due to longstanding demographic differences. In the Electoral College, this results in major-party candidates primarily focusing their campaigns on swing states, which can swing between parties from election to election. These states are critical for a presidential candidate's path to victory. For 2028, the expected swing states likely include the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as well as the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina,[citation needed] all of which were narrowly won by Trump in 2024.[12][13][14] The Minnesota Star Tribune also reported that the close margin in Minnesota would make it specifically a very likely swing state.[15]

Red states, also known as the red wall or red sea, are states that consistently vote Republican at the national level. The red wall has rarely been broken, as these states almost never swing. The last significant breach of the red wall occurred in the 1992 United States presidential election. States formerly considered swing states, such as Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, voted for Trump in all three of his elections, with increasing margins in each election (and have become reliably red in other state and federal elections) which suggests that they are no longer swing states.[16][17][18] Blue states are states that consistently vote Democratic at the national level. The blue states in 2024 include what is sometimes called the blue wall,[19] as well as Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, former swing states that have become reliably blue since 2008 even in Republican national victories.[20] Due to its recent record of voting Democratic even during Republican national wins, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is also sometimes considered blue.[21]

Republican Party

Potential candidates

Potential Republican candidates[a]

Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis has served as the governor of Florida since 2019 and previously ran for the Republican nomination in 2024. DeSantis has demonstrated a potential for being a candidate in the 2028 presidential primaries, stating that Trump voters in Iowa told him that they would vote for him in 2028.[22] He appeared in a debate with California governor Gavin Newsom moderated by Fox News' Sean Hannity in November 2023, in what was viewed by NBC News as a precursor to a 2028 presidential bid.[23]

Brian Kemp

Brian Kemp has served as the governor of Georgia since 2019. Kemp opposed President Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election, but was ultimately endorsed by Trump in Kemp's successful 2022 re-election campaign.[24] Kemp has been floated as a potential candidate for federal office after being term-limited as governor, either for U.S. Senate in 2026 or for president in 2028.[25][26]

JD Vance

JD Vance has served as a senator of Ohio since 2023 and is the vice president-elect after winning the 2024 election as Trump's running mate. Vance is the frontrunner in the primary election, according to The New York Times's Nate Cohn,[27] and the "MAGA heir-apparent" according to USA Today,[28] as well as The Columbus Dispatch.[29] The Hill stated that Vance's debate performance against Minnesota governor Tim Walz in October 2024 improved his status as a presidential contender.[30]

Glenn Youngkin

Glenn Youngkin has served as the governor of Virginia since 2022, and is barred by the state's constitution from seeking a second consecutive term. Youngkin has been reported as a possible candidate by Politico.[31] According to The Washington Post, he is "appearing to lay the groundwork" for a 2028 presidential bid.[32]

Democratic Party

Potential candidates

Potential Democratic candidates[a]

Andy Beshear

Andy Beshear has served as the governor of Kentucky since 2019. He was previously on the shortlist to be the vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election,[33] and was seen as a potential replacement for president Joe Biden before he withdrew from the race.[34] According to The Washington Post, Beshear formed a political action committee in January 2024 to increase his national profile.[35] In October 2024, Beshear headlined an event for the New Hampshire Democrats, a key early primary state, where he promoted both himself and Vice President Kamala Harris to attendees, signaling his future aspirations.[36] In response to ongoing speculation about his political ambitions, Beshear has stated in an interview with WDKY-TV that he will "see what the future holds", without explicitly ruling out a potential presidential run.[37]

Roy Cooper

Roy Cooper has served as the governor of North Carolina since 2017. He was considered a potential contender to be the vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election but removed himself from consideration.[38] The New York Times mentioned that Cooper could mount a credible campaign for the Democratic party’s 2028 nomination.[39] Politico has also referred to Cooper as a potential contender for the 2028 Democratic Party's presidential nomination.[40]

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris has served as the vice president of the United States since 2021. She became the nominee for president in the 2024 presidential election after Biden withdrew his bid, losing to Donald Trump.[41] Harris, who has the largest donor network in the Democratic Party, may run for the presidency again in 2028 according to The New York Times,[41] as well as Politico,[42] although her loss in the previous election could potentially give her a disadvantage.[41] According to USA Today, Harris intended to run in 2028 before Biden's withdrawal.[43] In November 2024, Politico reported that Harris is considering running for president in 2028 or for governor of California in 2026.[44]

Wes Moore

Wes Moore has served as the governor of Maryland since 2023. Moore has been mentioned by Politico after Trump's victory as one of the Democrats positioning themself for a potential presidential run in 2028.[42] It was also reported by The Baltimore Sun that if Moore is a force campaigning for Democrats in the upcoming midterm cycle, he could position himself as a national voice that would be in talks for the presidency in 2028.[45]

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom has served as the governor of California since 2019. Newsom has been viewed as a contender for the 2028 presidential election by The New York Times,[46] Politico,[42] and The Washington Post after he garnered national attention by December 2023,[47] and he was seen as a potential replacement for Biden after his withdrawal from the 2024 election by The New York Times.[48] According to The New York Times, Newsom was considering a bid for the presidency by September 2023.[49] In November 2023, he appeared in a debate with Florida governor Ron DeSantis moderated by Fox News' Sean Hannity, in an event that was viewed as a precursor to a presidential bid by NBC News.[23] According to Axios, Newsom and JB Pritzker donated to Charleston, South Carolina, mayoral candidate Clay Middleton, signaling a presidential ambition.[50]

Dean Phillips

Dean Phillips has served as the representative of Minnesota's 3rd congressional district since 2019. Phillips ran a campaign against Biden in the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries.[51] Phillips received the second-highest number of delegates of any candidate in the primaries, but was unsuccessful.[52] In an interview with CBS Minnesota, Phillips was asked about his future political aspirations. He ruled out a bid for the U.S. senate or the governor's office in 2026 but said, "never say never" regarding another presidential campaign in 2028.[53] The HuffPost reported that after the election, Phillips said of his White House bid, “I would do it a thousand times again.”[54] In an interview with the Nation, Phillips was asked what's next for him and his relationship with the Democratic Party, to which he responded, "I’ve been a Democrat my entire life and still aspire to play a role in making us more competitive and effective."[55] The Minnesota Star Tribune reported that Phillips is not sure what he’ll do after departing Washington in January but did not rule out another presidential bid when telling constituents at the Ridgedale Library in Minnetonka that although he has no plans to aim for either Minnesota’s governorship or the U.S. Senate, he does not intend to go away.[56]

JB Pritzker

JB Pritzker has served as the governor of Illinois since 2019. Pritzker is a potential Democratic contender, according to Chicago Sun-Times.[57] With Newsom, he donated to Middleton.[50] In 2023, Pritzker declined to speak directly with representative Dean Phillips regarding his effort to try to convince him to enter the Democratic Party presidential primary race to oppose Biden.[58][59]

Josh Shapiro

Josh Shapiro has served as the governor of Pennsylvania since 2023. Shapiro has been seen as a critical figure in Pennsylvania by Democratic strategists and officials, according to Politico,[42] and as a politician who could garner votes from white working-class voters, according to CNN.[60] He was said to be a front-runner in the primary by The Philadelphia Inquirer.[61] According to The New York Times, Shapiro was seen as a potential replacement for Biden.[48]

Gretchen Whitmer

Gretchen Whitmer has served as the governor of Michigan since 2019. Whitmer has been discussed as a contender in 2028, although she distanced herself from speculation in an interview with Lulu Garcia-Navarro of The New York Times Magazine in June 2024.[62] In 2023, Whitmer declined to speak directly with representative Dean Phillips regarding his effort to try to convince her to enter the Democratic Party presidential primary race to oppose Biden.[58][59] She disavowed a movement to replace Biden.[63]

Declined to be candidates

The following individuals stated that they would not run for president:

Independents

Declined to be candidates

The following individuals stated that they would not run for president:

Timeline

Main article: Timeline of the 2028 United States presidential election

Opinion polling

Republican primary

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[b] Tucker
Carlson 		Ted
Cruz[c] 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr. 		Vivek
Ramaswamy 		Marco
Rubio 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		JD
Vance 		Other Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates December 11–16, 2024 463 (LV) — — 9% 4% – 4% 2% 21% 35% 9%[d] 24%
Morning Consult December 6–8, 2024 994 (RV) 1% — 9% 6% 5% 5% 1% 30% 30% 18%[e] —
Emerson College November 20–22, 2024 420 (RV) — 1% 5% 2% 2% 3% 1% — 30% 9%[f][g] 51%[h]
Echelon Insights November 14–18, 2024 483 (LV) — 5% 8% 9% — 9% 5% — 37% 9%[i] 18%
November 5, 2024 2024 United States presidential election held.
Echelon Insights July 19–21, 2024 982 (RV) — 4% 14% 9% — 10% 2% — 19% 16%[j] 21%
Echelon Insights January 16–18, 2024 832 (RV) 6% — 27% 19% — 18% — — 1% 12%[k] 17%

Democratic primary

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[b] Pete
Buttigieg 		Kamala
Harris 		Gavin
Newsom 		Josh
Shapiro 		Tim
Walz 		Other Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates December 11–16, 2024 428 (LV) 12% 35% 7% 5% 5% 18%[l] 19%
Emerson College November 20–22, 2024 400 (RV) 4% 37% 7% 3% 1% 17%[m] 35%
Echelon Insights November 14–18, 2024 457 (LV) 6% 41% 8% 7% 6% 16%[n] 16%
Morning Consult November 15–17, 2024 1,012 (V) 9% 43% 8% 5% 7% 27%[o] —
November 5, 2024 2024 United States presidential election held.
Morning Consult/Politico May 28–29, 2024 3,997 (RV) 10% 21% 10% 3% — 12%[p] 41%
Echelon Insights January 16–18, 2024 499 (RV) 13% 33% 11% 2% — 12%[q] 29%

Notes

  1. ^ a b Individuals listed below have been mentioned as potential 2028 presidential candidates in at least two reliable media sources in the last six months.
  2. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Questions have been raised as to whether Cruz meets the constitutional qualification that the President must be a natural born citizen, as Cruz was born in Canada
  4. ^ Tim Scott with 3%; Tulsi Gabbard, Sarah Huckabee Sanders & Glenn Youngkin with 2%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem & Rick Scott with 1%; Larry Hogan & Elise Stefanik with <1%
  5. ^ Greg Abbott, Brian Kemp, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Glenn Youngkin with 1%; Someone else with 5%; Would not vote with 4%
  6. ^ Tulsi Gabbard and Candace Owens with 1%; Elon Musk, and Glenn Youngkin with <1%; Someone else with 5%
  7. ^ Musk is not eligible to serve as president as he is not a natural-born citizen
  8. ^ Including 23% who said Donald Trump, who is not eligible under the terms of the 22nd Amendment
  9. ^ Sarah Huckabee Sanders with 2%; Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Glenn Youngkin, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Katie Britt, Doug Burgum, and Elise Stefanik with 0%; Someone else with 3%
  10. ^ Sarah Huckabee Sanders with 3%; Josh Hawley, and Tim Scott with 2%; Katie Britt, Byron Donalds, and Glenn Youngkin with 1%
  11. ^ Greg Abbott with 3%; Kari Lake and Glenn Youngkin with 2%; Tom Cotton, Byron Donalds, Josh Hawley, Brian Kemp, and Elise Stefanik with 1%; Katie Britt with 0%
  12. ^ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer & Beto O'Rourke with 3%; Cory Booker with 2%; Amy Klobuchar, Wes Moore, Phil Murphy & Deval Patrick with 1%; Jared Polis with <1%
  13. ^ Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders with 2%; Hakeem Jeffries, Wes Moore, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, JB Pritzker, Jon Stewart, and Rashida Tlaib with 1%; Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly with <1%; Someone else with 4%
  14. ^ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 4%; Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; J.B. Pritzker, Andy Beshear, and Cory Booker with 2%; Jared Polis and Wes Moore with 1%; Someone else with 1%
  15. ^ Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez with 4%; Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, and Andy Beshear with 2%; Wes Moore, JB Pritzker, and John Fetterman with 1%; "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 6%
  16. ^ Mark Kelly and Gretchen Whitmer with 4%; "Someone else" with 7%
  17. ^ J. B. Pritzker and Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; John Fetterman, and Raphael Warnock with 2%; Andy Beshear and Wes Moore with 1%

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