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2025 Liberal Party of Canada leadership election

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2025 Liberal Party of Canada leadership election
← 2013 March 9, 2025[1]
Incumbent Leader

Justin Trudeau


2025 Liberal leadership election
DateMarch 9, 2025
ConventionTBD
Resigning leaderJustin Trudeau
Won byTBD
Candidates5
Entrance Fee$350,000[2]
Spending limit$5,000,000[3]
Liberal leadership elections
1919 · 1948 · 1958 · 1968 · 1980 · 1984 · 1990 · 2003 · 2006 · 2009 · 2013 · 2025

The Liberal Party of Canada is holding a leadership election to elect a successor to Justin Trudeau following his announcement on January 6, 2025, of his intention to resign as party leader and as prime minister of Canada as soon as his successor is elected.[4][5][6][7] The party will choose its new leader on March 9 who is expected to assume office as the 24th prime minister of Canada, appoint the 30th Canadian ministry, and lead the party into the 2025 federal election.

Background

[edit]

Justin Trudeau was elected as the leader of the Liberal Party in 2013. He led the party to victory in the 2015 federal election, with a majority government, and was re-elected in 2019 and 2021 with minority governments. On March 22, 2022, the Liberals reached a confidence and supply agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP), who agreed to support the Liberal government until June 2025 in exchange for specific policy commitments.[8]

Throughout 2024, public support for the Liberal Party declined. On June 24, the Liberals lost the Toronto—St. Paul's by-election. The seat was vacated by former minister Carolyn Bennett and represented by the Liberals since 1993, was considered a safe seat for the Liberals. The by-election was considered by some as a "referendum" on Trudeau's premiership.[9][10] The loss marked the first time Liberals lost a seat that they had held prior to a by-election during the 44th Parliament.[11] In the aftermath of the by-election loss, Wayne Long publicly called on Trudeau to resign, the first Liberal MP to do so.[12] The Liberals lost a second by-election on September 16, LaSalle—Émard—Verdun by-election, which had been vacated by former minister David Lametti and was considered to be a "safe" Liberal seat. Senior Liberal figures considered the by-election a "must-win".[13] On December 16, the Liberals lost the 2024 Cloverdale—Langley City federal by-election, a seat vacated by former Liberal MP John Aldag.[14]

On September 4, the NDP withdrew from their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals, though they did not commit to a motion of non-confidence.[15]

In October, Trudeau faced a caucus revolt when 24 Liberal MPs signed a letter demanding his resignation. However, Trudeau was defiant and unequivocal in his plans to lead the party in the next election. The dissident MPs continued to push for a caucus vote on Trudeau's leadership, though there is no formal mechanism in the party to force one.[16]

Resignation of Chrystia Freeland

[edit]
Main article: 2024–2025 Canadian political crisis

Hours before the government's fall economic statement, Chrystia Freeland, the minister of finance and deputy prime minister, resigned due to her opposition to Trudeau's fiscal policy.[17] The move was unexpected, particularly since Freeland was seen as being very loyal,[18][19] and led to further calls for Trudeau to step down.[20]

Four days later, on December 20, Trudeau conducted a major cabinet reshuffle. Nevertheless, pressure on Trudeau continued to build. Over 20 Liberal MPs publicly call for Trudeau to resign and over 50 sign a private letter asking him to resign. The same day, the NDP publicly committed to introducing a non-confidence motion against the government.[21] The Ontario, Atlantic and Quebec regional caucuses called on Trudeau to resign on December 21,[22] 23[23] and 31, respectively.[24] On January 3, 2025, the Liberal caucus regional chairs met and called an emergency national Liberal caucus meeting, set for January 8, 2025.[25][26]

On January 6, 2025, Trudeau announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister as soon as his successor is chosen.[27][28]

Speculation and announcements

[edit]

Following Trudeau's announcement, political commentators suggested that several figures were likely candidates: Anita Anand, Mark Carney, François-Philippe Champagne, Christy Clark, Chrystia Freeland, Mélanie Joly and Dominic LeBlanc.[29][30][31][32] Other possible candidates named were Sean Fraser, Karina Gould and Jonathan Wilkinson.[29][30][32][33] Freeland, a leading member of Trudeau's government, had been seen as a "possible heir apparent" as far back as 2021.[34] After her resignation from cabinet, some MPs voiced their support for her to replace Trudeau.[35] Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, had reportedly been courted by the party for the leadership in 2012, and had been rumoured as a star candidate in the 2021 election.[36] In November 2024, Carney did not rule out a future leadership bid.[37] Clark, the premier of British Columbia from 2011 to 2017, had called on Trudeau to step down on multiple occasions since 2022, and in October 2024, publicly expressed interest in leading the party.[38] Anand, Champagne and Joly were also widely believed to harbour leadership ambitions.[39]

The same day as Trudeau's announcement, Frank Baylis announced his intention to run for leader.[40] Baylis, the MP for Pierrefonds—Dollard from 2015 to 2019, had publicly mulled a leadership run since June 26, 2024, after the party lost the Toronto—St. Paul's by-election.[41] On January 9, Chandra Arya, MP for Nepean, announced his leadership bid.[42]

In an interview on January 10 with CBC Radio's The House, Clark confirmed she was seriously considering running for the leadership. Addressing her endorsement of Jean Charest in the 2022 Conservative leadership election, Clark claimed to have only done so to oppose Pierre Poilievre, and insisted she had never actually been a member of the Conservative Party.[43] Following the interview, a spokesman from the Conservative Party provided a screenshot of their records showing that Clark had been a member; Clark responded, saying she had "misspoke". On January 14, Clark bowed out of the race, citing the short length of the race and insufficient French.[44]

On January 14, it was reported that Gould was preparing a leadership bid. Gould was the incumbent government house leader and had previously headed several ministries.[45]

Carney announced his candidacy on January 16.[46] Freeland announced her candidacy on January 17.[47] Gould announced her candidacy on January 18.[48]

Timeline

[edit]
  • January 6, 2025 – Governor General Mary Simon grants Trudeau's request to prorogue Parliament until March 24, 2025. Trudeau holds a press conference that morning and announces his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister as soon as his successor is chosen.[5][49] Former Liberal MP Frank Baylis announces his candidacy for the Liberal leadership.[40]
  • January 8, 2025 – The National Liberal Caucus holds its first meeting since Trudeau's resignation. MPs reportedly express a preference for an expedited process and state concerns about the party's voter eligibility rules and request that voting be restricted to citizens and permanent residents in order to prevent foreign interference.[50]
  • January 9, 2025 – Liberal Party president Sachit Mehra announces details for the leadership vote, including the voting date, entrance fee and membership rules.[2][51][52]
  • January 9, 2025 – Liberal MP Chandra Arya announces his candidacy for the Liberal leadership.[42]
  • January 16, 2025 – Former governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney announces his candidacy for the Liberal leadership.[46]
  • January 17, 2025 — Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland confirms her candidacy in a social media post, with a formal campaign launch scheduled for January 19.[47]
  • January 18, 2025 — Government house leader Karina Gould confirms her candidacy with a formal launch being held the next day.[48]
  • January 23, 2025 – Deadline to announce leadership candidacy and pay a refundable $50,000 installment towards the entrance fee.[2][53]
  • January 27, 2025 – Deadline to register to vote.[2]
  • January 30, 2025 – Due date for non-refundable payment of $50,000 (second installment towards entrance fee.)[3]
  • February 7, 2025 – Due date for non-refundable payment of $125,000 (third installment towards entrance fee.)[3]
  • February 17, 2025 – Due date for non-refundable payment of $125,000 (fourth and final installment towards $350,000 entrance fee.)[53]
  • March 9, 2025 – Voting will end and results will be announced.[2]

Rules and procedures

[edit]

Under the procedure outlined by the party's constitution, all registered Liberals will be eligible to vote directly for leader by preferential ballot as long as they have been registered at least 41 days before the day of the leadership vote. To be eligible to register as a Liberal, and thus be permitted to vote, one must be a Canadian citizen, permanent resident of Canada, or have status under the Indian Act; not be a member of another political party; and be a minimum of 14 years old.[54][2]

To be nominated, a candidate must collect 300 signatures from registered Liberals, including at least 100 from three different provinces or territories.[55]

Candidates are required to pay a $350,000 entrance fee to run. The fee is to be paid in four installments between January 23 and February 17 with only the initial $50,000 installment being refundable.[53]

Votes will be weighted, with each electoral district being allocated 100 points, and with points in a district allocated in proportion to each candidate by the number of first-preference votes received.

17,151 points are required to win.[56] If no candidate receives a majority of points on the first count, the candidate with the fewest points will be eliminated and their votes will be distributed in each electoral district among the remaining leadership contestants according to the next preference indicated. This process would then continue until one candidate has received a majority of points.[57]

Candidates

[edit]

Entered

[edit]
Candidate Experience Date entered Policies Campaign Ref.

Chandra Arya 		MP for Nepean
(2015–present) 		January 22, 2025[58] Website [42]

Mark Carney 		Governor of the Bank of Canada
(2008–2013)
Governor of the Bank of England
(2013–2020) 		January 22, 2025[58]
  • Replace carbon tax with something “more effective” at reaching carbon neutral targets.[61][62]
 Endorsements
Website 		[46]

Chrystia Freeland 		Deputy Prime Minister of Canada
(2019–2024)
Minister of Finance
(2020–2024)
Minister of Foreign Affairs
(2017–2019)
MP for University—Rosedale
(2015–present) 		January 22, 2025[58]
  • Replace carbon tax with a system collaboratively developed with the provinces and territories.[63]
  • Scrap increase to inclusion rate on capital gains tax.[64]
 Endorsements
Website 		[47]

Declared

[edit]

Formal announcement pending

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]

Mark Carney

[edit]
Mark Carney
Members of Parliament (30)
Former Members of Parliament (3)
Former provincial and territorial politicians (1)
International politicians (1)

Chrystia Freeland

[edit]
Chrystia Freeland
Members of Parliament (26 plus Freeland)
Former Members of Parliament (3)
Members of provincial and territorial legislatures (1)

Karina Gould

[edit]
Karina Gould
Members of Parliament (2 plus Gould)
Former Members of Parliament (1)

Opinion polling

[edit]

Liberal supporters

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Reference Sample
size 		Anita
Anand 		Mark
Carney 		François-
Philippe
Champagne 		Christy
Clark 		Chrystia
Freeland 		Mélanie
Joly 		Dominic
LeBlanc 		Jonathan
Wilkinson 		Other/
undecided
Léger January 13, 2025 [133] 280 2% 27% 4% 6% 21% — — — Chandra Arya 3%
Karina Gould 1%
Steven MacKinnon 0%
Someone else 5%
Don't know 30%
Abacus Data January 7, 2025 [134] — 5% 20% 4% 5% 26% 7% 6% — Steven Guilbeault 2%
Don't know 25%
Spark Advocacy Before December 25, 2024 [135] — 8% 18% 9% 8% 26% 11% 10% 8% —
Léger December 22, 2024 [136] 245 5% 7% 2% 1% 21% 4% 7% — Someone else 7%
Don't know 46%
Léger September 22, 2024 [137] 312 2% 13% 4% 0% 18% 5% 2% — Sean Fraser 4%
Someone else 4%
Don't know 46%

All Canadians

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Reference Sample
size 		Anita
Anand 		Mark
Carney 		François-
Philippe
Champagne 		Christy
Clark 		Sean
Fraser 		Chrystia
Freeland 		Mélanie
Joly 		Dominic
LeBlanc 		Justin
Trudeau 		Jonathan
Wilkinson 		Other/
undecided
Léger January 13, 2025 [133] 1,545 2% 13% 4% 5% — 14% — — — — Chandra Arya 1%
Karina Gould 1%
Steven MacKinnon 1%
Someone else 14%
Don't know 46%
Abacus Data January 7, 2025 [134] 2,500 3% 13% 3% 6% — 17% 2% 6% 3% — Steven Guilbeault 2%
Don't know 47%
Nanos Research January 5, 2025 [138] 1,045 2.4% 13.8% 3.7% 4.0% 1.6% 19.0% 4.2% 3.4% 6.4% — NOTA 22.3%
Other 5.7%
Unsure 13.5%
Spark Advocacy Before December 25, 2024 [135] 2,500 9% 17% 9% 10% — 23% 13% 10% — 9% —
Léger December 22, 2024 [136] 1,521 2% 7% 3% 3% — 15% 4% 4% — — Someone else 15%
Don't know 48%
Nanos Research November 6, 2024 [139] 1,010 3.3% 17.9% 4.3% 3.6% 2.5% 11.1% 3.3% 1.7% 11.4% — NOTA 26.2%
Other 1.9%
Unsure 12.6%
Léger September 22, 2024 [137] 1,556 2% 8% 3% 1% 2% 8% 3% 1% — — Someone else 16%
Don't know 55%
Nanos Research August 1, 2024 [140] 1,035 3.4% 17.6% 4.5% — 1.0% 12.3% 5.9% 1.9% 9.4% — NOTA 28.8%
Unsure 15.3%
Nanos Research July 3, 2024 [141] 1,018 2.9% 19.5% 4.2% — 2.4% 9.4% 4.9% 2.9% 9.0% — NOTA 25.0%
Unsure 19.8%
Nanos Research December 2, 2023 [142] 1,069 4.9% 15.2% 2.2% — 2.0% 17.8% 3.9% 1.9% 9.3% — NOTA 23.5%
Unsure 19.3%

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
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