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2023 Bulgarian parliamentary election

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2023 Bulgarian parliamentary election
Bulgaria
← 2022 2 April 2023 June 2024 →
All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
Turnout40.51% (Increase 1.21pp)
Party Leader Vote % Seats +/–
GERB—SDS Boyko Borisov 25.39 69 +2
PP–DB Kiril Petkov 23.54 64 −9
Revival Kostadin Kostadinov 13.58 37 +10
DPS Mustafa Karadayi 13.18 36 0
BSPzB Korneliya Ninova 8.56 23 −2
ITN Slavi Trifonov 3.94 11 +11
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Prime Minister before Prime Minister after
Galab Donev (caretaker)
Independent		 Nikolai Denkov
PP
Politics of Bulgaria
Constitution
Presidency
  • Executive
  • Legislative
Major political parties
Recent elections
Administrative divisions
Foreign relations

Early parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 2 April 2023 to elect members of the National Assembly.[1] These were initially scheduled to be held before November 2026;[2] however, as no government was approved by the 48th Parliament, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev announced in January 2023 that he would call a snap election.[1]

The GERB—SDS placed first with 69 seats, closely followed by PP–DB which won 64. Tied for third was the far-right Revival and the minority interests party DPS, with 37 and 36 seats, respectively. ITN also entered the parliament after having fallen out in the 2022 election.[3][4]

On 15 May President Rumen Radev granted GERB—SDS a mandate to form a government, and the party nominated Bulgaria's European Commissioner, Mariya Gabriel, for prime minister. GERB—SDS sought to form a government with rival PP–DB to end the political deadlock that had resulted in numerous inconclusive elections. Although initially reluctant, with co-leader and former prime minister Kiril Petkov pledging to rule out working with GERB—SDS, the PP–DB later agreed to negotiate. However, the talks between the two parties broke down on 27 May after the leak of a video in which the leaders of the PP–DB expressed their intentions to reduce GERB—SDS' influence within the civil service. President Radev subsequently handed a mandate on 29 May to the PP–DB to form a government, which nominated Nikolai Denkov for prime minister. However, Radev recommended Denkov return the mandate due to the video's release, which sparked protests and criticism from PP–DB, arguing the president’s statement was unconstitutional. GERB—SDS agreed to restart negotiations with PP–DB to form a "government of experts." Denkov announced on 2 June that the two parties had reached an agreement on the composition of a cabinet with certain modifications that removed "inflammatory political figures". Parliament voted to approve the new GERB—SDS–PP–DB government on 6 June with Denkov as prime minister.

Background

[edit]
See also: 2021–2023 Bulgarian political crisis and 2022 Bulgarian parliamentary election

The National Assembly remained fragmented following the 2022 election, the third snap election since 2021, and no party was able to form a governing coalition.[1] GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) did not have a majority, holding only 103 of the 121 seats needed. Bulgarian Rise (BV) and Revival, which held a combined 39 seats, are considered Eurosceptic and sympathetic to Russia,[5] similarly to the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with 25 seats. Although generally pro-EU, the remaining parties and alliances with seats opposed Boyko Borisov's past government and refused any possibility of a coalition with GERB due to disagreements over corruption.[6]

On 18 October Borisov announced that his attempts to broker a coalition government prior to the first sitting of the new Assembly were unsuccessful.[7] The following day, the Assembly failed to elect a speaker during its first meeting, the first time this ever occurred. After multiple failed attempts, the Assembly elected its oldest member, the GERB MP Vezhdi Rashidov, as speaker on 21 October, after he was nominated by Korneliya Ninova, the leader of BSP, as a consensus candidate.[8][9] The gridlock to form a new government persisted throughout October and November 2022 and before a first or second mandate was given, President Rumen Radev stated that he would delay handing over the third mandate for government formation until after the New Year so as to delay elections until March 2023 and avoid the most difficult winter period.[10]

On 2 December, Radev stated that he would hand the government mandate to the election's winner GERB the following Monday. On 5 December, Radev granted the first mandate to GERB's nominee, Nikolay Gabrovski. One week later, on 12 December, Gabrovski proposed a new government.[11] His prime ministership was rejected by Parliament (113 for, 125 against, 2 absent) two days later on 14 December, with MPs from the DPS and BV voting in favour alongside GERB.[12] On 3 January, Radev gave the second mandate to PP's candidate, Nikolai Denkov,[13] but his prime ministership was also rejected by Parliament (63 for, 84 against, 30 abstain, 63 absent).[14] Radev gave the third mandate to Ninova, who was unable to form a government in a deadlocked parliament.[15][16] As none of the three mandates produced a government, a new election was scheduled.

Electoral system

[edit]

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by open list, proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 4 to 19 seats. The electoral threshold is 4% for parties, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method using a Hare quota.[17][18] Radev dissolved the National Assembly on 3 February to schedule the election for 2 April 2023.[15]

Parties

[edit]
See also: List of political parties in Bulgaria

Parliamentary parties

[edit]

The table below lists the political party groups that were represented in the 48th National Assembly prior to the election.[19]

Name Ideology Position Leader(s) 2022 result Seats at dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
GERB—SDS GERB—Union of Democratic Forces Conservatism Centre-right Boyko Borisov 24.48%
67 / 240
67 / 240
PP–DB We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria Social liberalism
Anti-corruption 		Centre Kiril Petkov
Asen Vasilev 		19.52%
53 / 240
74 / 240
Liberalism Centre to centre-right Hristo Ivanov
Atanas Atanasov 		7.19%
20 / 240
DPS Movement for Rights and Freedoms Turkish minority interests Centre Mustafa Karadayi 13.29%
36 / 240
36 / 240
Revival Revival Ultranationalism Far-right Kostadin Kostadinov 9.83%
27 / 240
27 / 240
BSPzB BSP for Bulgaria Social democracy Centre-left Korneliya Ninova 8.98%
25 / 240
24 / 240
BV Bulgarian Rise National conservatism Stefan Yanev 4.47%
12 / 240
12 / 240

Contesting parties and coalitions

[edit]

Coalitions that registered to take part in the 2023 parliamentary election could change its composition or name by 25 February 2023. Until 28 February 2023, the candidate lists could be registered to the Electoral Commission.[20]

# Party or coalition Ideology Leader 2022 result
Votes (%) Seats
1 BSP for Bulgaria BSP Bulgarian Socialist Party Social democracy
Social conservatism 		Korneliya Ninova 8.98%
25 / 240
– Ecoglasnost Green politics
Environmentalism 		Emil Georgiev
Trakiya Trakiya Political Club [bg] Bulgarian nationalism
Thracian Bulgarian interests 		Stefan Nachev
2 GERB—SDS GERB GERB Conservatism
Populism 		Boyko Borisov 24.48%
67 / 240
SDS Union of Democratic Forces National conservatism
Christian democracy 		Rumen Hristov
3 Revival Revival Ultranationalism
Right-wing populism 		Kostadin Kostadinov 9.83%
27 / 240
4 ITN There is Such a People Populism
Social conservatism 		Slavi Trifonov 3.71%
0 / 240
5 ISI People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" [bg] Anti-vaccination
Ultranationalism 		Ventsislav Angelov [bg] 0.10%
0 / 240
6 Neutral Bulgaria RVO Russophiles for the
Revival of the Fatherland 		Russophilia
National conservatism 		Nikolay Malinov [bg] 0.25%
0 / 240
Ataka Attack Ultranationalism
Right-wing populism 		Volen Siderov 0.29%
0 / 240
BKP Bulgarian Communist Party (modern)Bulgarian Communist Party Communism
Left-wing nationalism 		Zonka Spasova DNP
PBK Party of the Bulgarian Communists Communism
Marxism–Leninism 		Collective leadership
7 BNO Bulgarian National Unification Bulgarian nationalism
National conservatism 		Georgi Georgiev-Goti 0.06%
0 / 240
8 Together (Bulgaria) [bg] PnZ Party of the Greens [bg] Green politics
Anti-capitalism 		Vladimir Nikolov (Bulgarian Rise)
SDP Social Democratic Party (Bulgaria) [bg] Social democracy
Pro-Europeanism 		Todor Barbolov [bg] DNP
SBOR A Just Bulgaria – United Patriots [bg] Iva Miteva
Dimitar Iliev 		New
DNK Movement of Non-Partisan Candidates [bg] Direct democracy Mincho Hristov [bg] 0.40%
0 / 240
9 BNU-ND Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy Ultranationalism
Anti-immigration 		Boyan Rasate [bg] 0.07%
0 / 240
10 NDSV National Movement for Stability and Progress Populism
Conservative liberalism 		Stanimir Ilchev DNP
11 KOD Conservative Union of the Right National conservatism
Right-wing populism 		Petar Moskov 0.19%
0 / 240
12 PP–DB PP We Continue the Change Liberalism
Anti-corruption 		Kiril Petkov
Asen Vasilev 		19.52%
53 / 240
SEK Middle European Class Economic liberalism
Burgas regionalism 		Konstantin Bachiiski [bg]
Volt Volt Bulgaria European federalism
Pro-Europeanism 		Nastimir Ananiev
DSB Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria Conservatism
Anti-communism 		Atanas Atanasov 7.19%
(DB)
20 / 240
DB Yes, Bulgaria! Liberalism
Anti-corruption 		Hristo Ivanov
ZD Green Movement Green politics
Green liberalism 		Vladislav Panev
Dobromira Kostova
13 DPS Movement for Rights and Freedoms Turkish minority interests
Liberalism 		Mustafa Karadayi 13.29%
36 / 240
14 The Left! IS.BG Stand Up.BG Social liberalism
Social democracy 		Maya Manolova 0.97%
0 / 240
ABV Alternative for Bulgarian Revival Social democracy
Moderate social conservatism 		Rumen Petkov (Bulgarian Rise)
ex-BSP faction Social democracy Valeri Zhablyanov [bg] (BSPzB)
D21 Movement 21 Social democracy Tatyana Doncheva DNP
ZS-AS Agrarian Union "Aleksandar Stamboliyski" Agrarianism Spas Panchev [bg]
BNL Bulgarian Progressive Line Democratic socialism Krasimir Yankov [bg]
ND Normal State [bg] Progressivism Georgi Kadiev [bg]
15 BV Bulgarian Rise National conservatism
Souverainism 		Stefan Yanev 4.62%
12 / 240
16 MIR MIR [bg] Social conservatism Simeon Slavchev [bg] 0.17%
0 / 240
17 BSDE Bulgarian Social Democracy – EuroLeft Social democracy
Pro-Europeanism 		Aleksandar Tomov 0.21%
0 / 240
18 BSDD Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg] Direct democracy Georgi Nedelchev [bg] 0.23%
0 / 240
19 GN People's Voice Populism
Euroscepticism 		Svetoslav Vitkov 0.24%
0 / 240
20 SPBP Socialist Party "Bulgarian Way" [bg] Left-wing nationalism
Euroscepticism 		Angel Dimov [bg] DNP
21 Out of EU and NATO [bg] BTR Bulgaria of Labor and Reason [bg] Anti-Western sentiment
Hard Euroscepticism 		Georgi Manolov [bg] 0.10%
0 / 240
KOY Competence, Responsibility and Truth [bg] Svetozar Saev [bg] (A Just Bulgaria [bg])
Natsiya Nation (Bulgarian political party) [bg] Ultranationalism
Hard Euroscepticism 		Kiril Gumnerov [bg] New

Campaign

[edit]

Campaign slogans

[edit]

The following list present the official campaign slogans of some of the major parties that contested the 2023 Bulgarian parliamentary election:

Party/alliance Original slogan English translation Ref.
GERB–SDS „За стабилна България отново“ "For a stable Bulgaria again" [21]
PP–DB „Има как и има кой“ "There is a way and there is an option" [22]
DPS „Разум, отговорност, диалог“ "Reason, Responsibility, Dialogue" [23]
Revival „Избери свобода“ "Choose freedom" [24]
BSPzB „Благоденствие, солидарност, прогрес“ "Prosperity, Solidarity, Progress" [25]
BV „С разум за България” "With reason for Bulgaria" [26]
ITN „Държавата - Това сте вие“ "You are the state" [27]

Constitutional powers of the President

[edit]

PP, DB, and GERB have accused Radev of meddling in political affairs, as well as internal party politics, which is in breach of the constitutional duties.[28][29][30] BSP have consistently accused Radev and the caretaker Second Donev Government of allegedly meddling in internal party affairs.[31][32] BSP sent an official complain to the OSCE and PACE alleging illegal meddling by the caretaker government and president in their internal politics, as well as the election campaign after an interview by justice minister Krum Zarkov criticising the party leadership.[33] The PP–DB coalition also accused the president of meddling after Radev called them "the parties of war" referring to their support of sending arms to Ukraine.[34][35] ITN believes that the president should have more powers compared to the current roles outlined in the constitution, even advocating for a transition to a presidential republic with ITN calling for a referendum to be held on the decision.[36][37]

Magnitsky sanctions announcement

[edit]

On 10 February 2023, the United States announced a new group of sanctions based on the Magnitsky Act. The sanctions targeted former finance minister in the Second and Third Borisov Governments, Vladislav Goranov, former energy minister in the Stanishev Government, Rumen Ovcharov, the leader of Russophiles for the Revival of the Fatherland, Nikolay Malinov, as well as two former heads of the Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant.[38] The group were accused of corruption, financial mismanagement and increasing Russian influence.[39]

The announcement served as a reminder of endemic corruption, as well as the political class's close ties to Russia.[40][41] The announcement provoked a range of differing reactions from political parties and politicians in Bulgaria. Caretaker Minister of the Interior, Ivan Demerdzhiev, characterised the sanctions as "slap in the face" of the Bulgarian judicial system, showing it to be incapable of rooting out corruption,[42] while caretaker Deputy Prime Minister for European Union resources, Atanas Pekanov, and caretaker justice minister, Krum Zarkov, described it as a sign by the US that progress wasn't fast enough on the topic of judicial reform.[43] A similar message was echoed by members of the PP–DB coalition, with DB member of parliament, Atanas Slavov, saying that the new packet of sanctions showed the failings of the current general prosecutor, Ivan Geshev, and that a link existed between GERB, DPS, and BSP due to the former or current connection of the sanctioned figures to those parties.[44]

A more mixed reaction came from GERB and the BSP. Borisov insisted that the party had distanced itself away from Goranov, and claimed he had information that the United States was working on sanctions against PP co-leaders Petkov and Vasilev, for financial mismanagement during their time in office.[45] Other GERB figures, like GERB member of parliament Toma Bikov, insist that evidence must be provided before any judgement can be made.[46] BSP, of whom Rumen Ovcharov remains a member, gave a voice to Rumen Ovcharov at the recent Congress, at which he insisted he was innocent and that the sanctions were meant to worsen Russian-Bulgarian relations.[47] Leader of Bulgarian Rise, Stefan Yanev, indicated that he did not believe that the new sanctions would have an impact on the upcoming election, calling it another scandal that undermined trust between political parties, he did, however, endorse the idea of a thorough judicial reform as long as it kept the judicial branch independent.[48]

Nikolay Malinov, the leader of the party Russophiles for the Revival of the Fatherland, which is contesting the elections as part of the Neutral Bulgaria coalition, insists that he has never received funding from Russia, as alleged by the sanctions, and that he is proud to be included in the list as it showed his opposition to United States influence in Bulgaria.[49]

Allegations of vote buying

[edit]

Ivan Demerdzhiev, the minister of the interior in the caretaker government, announced on 17 February that he expects increased attempts at vote buying during this election campaign, with a meeting of Oblast Directors of the Ministry of Interior being dedicated to this topic.[50]

Opinion polls

[edit]

Graphical representation of recalculated data

Local regression of polls conducted

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude polls that chose "I will not vote" or "I am uncertain" options.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample GERB—SDS PP–DB DPS Revival BSPzB BV VMRO ITN IS.BG/
Levitsata! 		NDSV Others None of
the above 		Lead
PP DB
2023 election 2 Apr 2023 — 26.5 24.5 13.7 14.2 8.9 3.1 – 4.1 2.2 0.3 2.0
Trend 22–29 Mar 2023 1,004 26.4 26.1 13.7 13.3 7.3 3.5 – 3.0 3.6 – 3.1 – 0.3
Alpha Research 25–29 Mar 2023 1,013 25.9 25.4 13.8 13.6 8.2 3.9 – 2.3 3.1 – 3.8 3.7 0.5
Market Links 21–27 Mar 2023 1,014 25.8 27.5 15.8 13.2 8.5 2.4 – 2.7 3.7 – 0.4 – 1.7
Exacta 21–26 Mar 2023 1,050 26.2 25.6 13.7 12.8 7.4 3.3 – 2.9 3.7 – 4.4 – 0.6
Gallup 18–26 Mar 2023 1,004 26.5 26.9 13.3 13.0 7.2 3.5 – 3.0 3.3 – 3.3 4.1 0.4
Sova Harris 18–24 Mar 2023 1,000 25.9 24.6 12.8 12.6 7.8 3.9 – 2.9 4.1 – 5.4 – 1.3
Mediana 17–22 Mar 2023 978 24.7 23.1 13.2 14.5 8.6 4.5 – 3.4 4.3 – 3.8 – 1.6
CAM 16–19 Mar 2023 1,021 24.7 25.7 13.8 12.5 8.1 2.8 – 2.9 4.0 1.2 4.3 3.2[a] 1.0
Nasoca 7–14 Mar 2023 1,200 24.8 24.1 13.2 12.2 6.2 4.3 – 3.0 3.1 – 4.4 4.7 0.7
Trend 6–12 Mar 2023 1,003 25.6 26.5 13.6 12.9 7.6 3.6 – 3.1 3.5 – 3.6 5.1[a] 0.9
Gallup 24 Feb–3 Mar 2023 1,008 26.6 27.2 13.4 12.3 7.3 3.7 – 3.4 3.2 – 2.9 – 0.6
Alpha Research 21–27 Feb 2023 1,007 25.2 26.4 13.2 11.3 7.4 3.8 – 3.2 3.6 1.4 4.5 – 1.2
Sova Harris 20–27 Feb 2023 1,000 27.4 25.7 11.7 10.6 9.7 3.7 – 3.1 3.9 0.9 2.0 – 1.7
Market Links 18–27 Feb 2023 1,080 20.4 20.9 13.3 11.8 6.6 2.4 – 1.7 2.3 – 20.6[b] 0.5
Mediana 19–24 Feb 2023 973 24.6 22.7 11.3 12.5 8.9 4.5 – 3.1 3.5 – 2.8 6.1 1.9
Gallup 2–12 Feb 2023 808 26.1 27.1 13.4 12.3 8.6 4.2 3.9 – – 4.4 – 1.0
Trend 4–11 Feb 2023 1,003 25.6 24.8 12.8 11.9 8.9 4.0 – 3.3 – – 3.9 4.8 0.8
10 February 2023 PP and DB announce that they will run together
Exacta 30 Jan–4 Feb 2023 1,050 26.6 16.4 7.3 12.8 10.0 12.2 4.2 1.1 3.2 – 1.1 2.3 3.0 10.2
Market Links 10–20 Dec 2022 1,022 22.6 16.2 8.3 12.2 10.0 9.6 2.6 – 2.2 – – 16.3[b] 6.4
Alpha Research 1–13 Dec 2022 1,023 27.6 20.9 7.7 12.3 11.8 10.0 5.1 – – – – 4.7 – 5.7
Exacta 5–12 Dec 2022 1,050 25.2 19.0 7.4 11.5 8.9 10.2 5.2 – 2.7 – – 4.5 5.4 6.2
Trend 1–8 Dec 2022 1,005 25.8 19.2 7.3 11.6 11.3 9.0 4.0 – 3.1 – – 3.3 5.4 6.6
Gallup 29 Oct–6 Nov 2022 809 25.5 20.8 8.0 13.1 10.5 9.4 4.5 0.9 3.1 1.3 – 2.9 – 4.7
2022 election 2 Oct 2022 — 24.48 19.52 7.19 13.29 9.83 8.98 4.47 0.78 3.71 0.97 – 5.40 3.38 4.96

Results

[edit]

According to parallel counts of sample polling stations by several polling agencies, the final result was a close race between GERB—SDS and PP–DB, with all projecting GERB—SDS to be narrowly in the lead. All also suggest that V, DPS, and BSPzB would make it into the parliament, and there was conflicting data on whether ITN would win seats as well.[51][52]

The following table outlines the results by party. The national threshold at 4% is calculated using total votes for parties and independent candidates only, and not the total of valid votes, which include "None of the above" votes. As such, ITN wins seats despite seemingly falling below 4%.

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
GERB—SDS669,92425.3969+2
PP–DB621,06923.5464–9
Revival358,17413.5837+10
Movement for Rights and Freedoms347,70013.18360
BSP for Bulgaria225,9148.5623–2
There Is Such a People103,9713.9411+11
Bulgarian Rise77,4202.930–12
The Left!56,4812.140New
Neutral Bulgaria10,5050.400New
Together [bg]8,7550.330New
People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" [bg]7,7760.2900
Conservative Union of the Right7,7390.2900
National Movement for Stability and Progress6,7640.260New
Out of EU and NATO [bg]6,5980.250New
People's Voice5,5600.2100
Morality, Initiative, Patriotism [bg]3,8940.1500
Bulgarian Social Democracy – EuroLeft2,6330.1000
Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg]2,5170.1000
Bulgarian National Unification2,3280.0900
Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy1,7530.0700
Socialist Party "Bulgarian Way" [bg]7300.030New
Independents9240.0400
None of the above109,0954.14––
Total2,638,224100.002400
Valid votes2,638,22498.34
Invalid/blank votes44,6171.66
Total votes2,682,841100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,622,01340.51
Source: Electoral Commission of Bulgaria

Voter demographics

[edit]

Alpha Research exit polling suggested the following demographic breakdown. The parties that got below 4% of the vote are included in "Others".

Voter demographics in percentage[53][54]
Social group GERB PP–DB Revival DPS BSP ITN BV Levitsata! Others Lead
Exit poll result 25.7 25.1 13.9 13.6 9.0 3.9 3.0 2.3 3.5 0.6
Final result 26.6 24.7 14.2 13.4 9.0 4.1 3.1 2.3 2.6 1.9
Gender
Men 25 24 15 14 9 5 3 2 3 1
Women 26 27 13 11 11 3 2 3 4 1
Age
18–30 19 34 15 15 4 8 1 2 2 15
30–60 27 28 15 13 6 4 3 2 2 1
60+ 30 20 8 10 23 2 2 3 2 7
Level of education
Lower education 16 7 7 49 14 3 1 1 3 33
Secondary education 29 20 15 15 11 3 3 1 3 9
Higher education 27 35 14 3 9 3 3 2 4 8
Ethnic group
Bulgarian 27 28 15 1 13 5 4 3 4 1
Turkish 7 6 0 82 3 1 0 0 1 75
Roma 20 8 10 40 12 4 0 1 5 20
Location
Towns and villages 24 12 6 39 13 1 2 1 2 15
Smaller cities 29 20 13 9 16 4 3 2 4 9
Larger cities 27 29 16 4 10 4 3 3 4 2
Sofia 26 42 12 1 7 3 3 3 3 16

By constituency

[edit]
Constituency GERB–SDS PP–DB Revival DPS BSPzB ITN BV The Left! Others
Blagoevgrad 32.1% 17.6% 9.2% 19.9% 9.0% 3.5% 4.9% 2.2% 6.1%
Burgas 27.3% 21.2% 14.5% 15.1% 8.4% 4.1% 4.5% 2.1% 5.1%
Varna 32.4% 24.4% 17.4% 6.0% 7.2% 4.8% 2.4% 2.2% 6.3%
Veliko Tarnovo 26.0% 20.9% 17.0% 10.2% 12.6% 4.7% 2.9% 3.0% 6.8%
Vidin 29.9% 21.1% 11.7% 14.6% 11.7% 3.2% 3.2% 2.1% 5.8%
Vratsa 32.4% 17.3% 13.4% 10.7% 11.1% 4.0% 7.2% 1.8% 6.3%
Gabrovo 34.0% 22.1% 17.3% 4.2% 9.6% 4.4% 2.9% 2.7% 5.5%
Dobrich 23.7% 20.2% 17.5% 12.8% 13.4% 4.1% 3.5% 2.2% 5.9%
Kardzhali 10.8% 8.6% 3.5% 70.2% 3.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 2.0%
Kyustendil 37.1% 20.2% 14.4% 2.8% 13.0% 4.3% 2.6% 2.6% 6.5%
Lovech 34.7% 19.8% 13.7% 7.2% 12.6% 4.2% 2.6% 2.0% 5.4%
Montana 33.3% 15.2% 13.3% 20.0% 9.1% 3.2% 1.8% 2.0% 5.6%
Pazardzhik 29.7% 17.8% 13.4% 17.6% 11.0% 3.8% 2.8% 1.6% 6.1%
Pernik 36.4% 20.2% 15.3% 2.5% 9.9% 4.6% 4.0% 3.8% 6.6%
Pleven 26.7% 20.8% 15.0% 7.7% 12.3% 7.0% 3.1% 4.0% 6.3%
Plovdiv-city 27.0% 31.4% 15.9% 3.3% 8.0% 4.9% 4.2% 2.0% 5.4%
Plovdiv-province 29.5% 20.0% 15.5% 8.4% 14.0% 4.4% 3.9% 1.9% 5.5%
Razgrad 19.1% 18.0% 7.4% 44.4% 5.7% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% 3.5%
Ruse 24.3% 25.2% 16.6% 10.0% 10.0% 5.4% 2.8% 2.3% 6.6%
Silistra 28.0% 15.5% 10.4% 30.4% 7.7% 2.7% 2.1% 1.3% 4.4%
Sliven 33.2% 20.9% 15.0% 6.2% 11.0% 4.1% 3.7% 3.3% 6.6%
Smolyan 29.3% 20.2% 7.8% 24.9% 9.2% 2.9% 2.6% 1.3% 4.3%
Sofia-city 23 22.4% 44.7% 12.8% 0.8% 6.7% 3.2% 2.8% 3.2% 4.4%
Sofia-city 24 25.1% 40.0% 14.0% 0.8% 6.9% 3.7% 3.1% 2.9% 5.5%
Sofia-city 25 28.3% 32.1% 16.3% 0.7% 7.9% 4.4% 3.4% 2.8% 6.2%
Sofia-province 35.0% 19.3% 14.5% 6.8% 11.8% 4.2% 3.3% 2.3% 6.4%
Stara Zagora 26.3% 21.1% 17.3% 11.1% 10.8% 5.5% 2.8% 2.2% 5.8%
Targovishte 20.9% 13.9% 9.4% 33.2% 14.6% 2.8% 1.7% 1.7% 4.0%
Haskovo 29.3% 20.0% 13.8% 17.6% 8.8% 3.4% 2.6% 2.7% 4.5%
Shumen 25.2% 19.2% 11.4% 26.1% 9.4% 3.0% 2.5% 1.2% 4.8%
Yambol 26.9% 20.6% 17.5% 1.9% 19.2% 4.3% 4.7% 2.1% 5.5%
Bulgarian nationals abroad 8.4% 26.9% 16.7% 36.6% 2.1% 5.2% 1.1% 0.9% 3.3%
source: Electoral Commission of Bulgaria

Aftermath

[edit]

Allegations of count irregularities

[edit]

According to the Central Electoral Commission, 22% of election protocols were entered incorrectly,[55] and some members of PP–DB have shown examples of votes being counted incorrectly.[56]

Government formation

[edit]

As per the constitution, the president is required to hand a mandate for government formation to the largest parliamentary group, GERB–SDS. If they fail to propose a government within seven days, or if that government is rejected by the Bulgarian Parliament, the president is required to hand the second mandate to the second-largest parliamentary group, PP–DB. If the second mandate also fails to produce a government, the president grants a third mandate to a party of their choice. If no government is approved by parliament after all three mandates have been returned, fresh elections will be scheduled.

Andrius Tursa, a political risk consult from Teneo, commented that "a temporary technocratic cabinet or another [sixth] vote remain the most likely outcomes of the election" as the margin of GERB's victory was too narrow for them to rule but large enough that no coalition could govern without them, effectively preserving the years-long political deadlock. This potential technocratic government could be supported by both GERB–SDS and PP–DB in order to pass a budget for the year and address the increasing inflation and cost of living in the country.[57] Soon after the election, Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev announced that their party would not support a government proposed by GERB.[58] This was reaffirmed three days later when all four co-leaders of PP–DB announced that none of the parties in the coalition would support a GERB-proposed government, or one that included GERB.[59] Despite this, Borisov repeatedly stated that his preferred outcome would be a government between the two.[60][61] The only form of cooperation between the two groups, that PP–DB were open to, was GERB providing support for their proposed government with the second mandate.[62] During the negotiations, Borisov requested that if they wanted GERB's support, PP–DB needed to publicly release their proposed cabinet.[63] When they did, Borisov criticized the inclusion of PP members as ministers, suggested the inclusion of GERB–SDS ministers, and began negotiations with the other parties the following day.[64] Nikolay Denkov stated that negotiations with GERB regarding cabinet members would not be held.[65] Following the first mandate being given to GERB's candidate, PP–DB reaffirmed that they would not support it.[66]

Another possibility is for GERB and DPS to work with BSP,[67] something Borisov did not rule out.[68][69] This has been referred to, especially by PP–DB supporters, as the 'Magnitsky coalition', following the Magnitsky sanctions that incriminated MPs from all three parties.[70][71] Ninova and other senior BSP members stated that the BSP is open to discussion with everyone, but would consult with the party members before a decision is made on whether they would support a potential government or not.[72][73] When governmental formation negotiations began, Ninova stated that she would not support a GERB government, unless specifically offered to join a coalition, in which case she would ask her party.[74][75] Borisov in turn said that if PP–DB did not support his government, he could rule with BSP and DPS under certain conditions.[76] Soon after the first mandate was given to GERB, Ninova announced that her party would not support it.[77]

After a three day deadlock, the National Assembly approved GERB's Rosen Zhelyazkov as its speaker on 19 April, allowing for government formation talks to officially begin. Zhelyazkov was supported by GERB–SDS and PP–DB, who had agreed that each of them would retain control of the speakership for three months.[78] On 10 May GERB announced that their PM nominee is Mariya Gabriel, Bulgaria's European commissioner.[79] President Radev gave her the first mandate on 15 May.[77] Gabriel has attempted to win over some of the PP–DB members by making concessions to the coalition, including proposing to remove Ivan Geshev as Chief Prosecutor. However, PP–DB remained steadfast in denying any negotiation with GERB, and the attempted courting soured relations with the BSP. Additionally, Geshev stated that an unnamed high ranking individual requested he resign and handed him resignation papers, which he tore up in front of them.[80]

On 22 May, GERB–SDS and PP–DB announced that they had reached a surprise power-sharing deal (pending approval by MPs of both entities) for at least 18 months, whereby the premiership would be rotated between the two.[81][82] According to the Financial Times, "under the power-sharing agreement, the PP–DB’s Nikolai Denkov, a former education minister, will become prime minister, with [Mariya] Gabriel serving as his deputy and foreign minister. Gabriel will take over the premiership after nine months as the parties rotate the leadership." The deal was motivated by a desire to end the gridlock that had resulted in multiple inconclusive snap elections over two years, to move closer to fulfilling requirements for membership in the Eurozone, and to implement electronic voting as well as constitutional and comprehensive judicial reform.[83][84] Kiril Petkov, one of the leaders of PP–DB, nonetheless apologized to those who had voted for him based on a promise of not dealing with GERB.[85]

On 26 May 2023, Radostin Vasilev, a former ITN MP who founded the Civic Movement Strong Bulgaria, released a video snippet seemingly showing Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev working towards keeping Borisov out of a court case and agreeing to the appointments of key security services with approval of foreign organizations (particularly the EU and US).[86] He further announced that he was leaving the PP–DB group and would vote against the Denkov-Gabriel rotational government, urging fellow MPs from PP to vote against it as well.[87] The release of the tapes has triggered calls by GERB MPs to renegotiate certain elements of the agreements with PP–DB, especially about the composition of Denkov's Cabinet.[88][89] On 27 May, Mariya Gabriel, GERB's PM candidate who had led negotiations with PP, announced that government negotiations between GERB and PP were suspended due to a loss of trust because of the contents of the video tape, which included the leaders of PP admitting they wished to lower GERBs influence within the civil service.[90] GERB announced they would be willing to restart government talks with PP, if they pledged to form a government composed of "experts, which both parties could trust".[91] On 27 May, Nikolay Denkov (the PM candidate for PP) confirmed that despite the suspension of talks, he was still in talks with Mariya Gabriel, and that he hoped to re-start official negotiations when the second mandate was officially submitted.[92]

On 28 May, Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria announced their full support for Nikolay Denkov as PM, indicating that Democratic Bulgaria was inclined to support the government.[93]

On 29 May, President Rumen Radev handed the second mandate to PP–DB's Prime Minister candidate, Nikolay Denkov, urging Denkov to return the second mandate unfulfilled due to the loss of trust caused by the leaked tapes.[94] This statement was criticised by PP–DB as unconstitutional[95] and led to a protest outside the Presidential building, with calls for Radev to be impeached, as well as to curtail the powers of the Presidency.[96] Counter protests in support of President Radev were also held.[97]

On 31 May, GERB and PP–DB announced that they re-opened talks about government formation, with meetings taking place between key PP–DB and GERB leaders.[98]

On 2 June, Nikolay Denkov (PP–DB's PM candidate) confirmed that an agreement had been reached about the composition of the cabinet, with some changes taking place to "take out inflammatory political figures and give the government a more expert look". He also confirmed the new composition was approved by all the constituent members of PP–DB.[99] A meeting was also held on that day with the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, where changes to the constitution were discussed.[100] After this meeting, DPS confirmed that they would not "impede" the formation of the Denkov-Gabriel government, and that they would support continued talks about making changes to the constitution.[101]

Denkov's government was approved by the parliament on 6 June.[102][103][104][105]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b This poll reported the percentage respondents do not support any party, however the rest of the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages
  2. ^ a b As the full data for this poll was not released, it is possible that it includes undecided and uncertain voters. Recalculating the data to only include the numbers for the listed parties may be advised

References

[edit]
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