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2012 Northern Territory general election

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2012 Northern Territory general election

← 2008 25 August 2012 2016 →

All 25 seats of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats were needed for a majority
Turnout76.9 (Increase 1.3 pp)
  First party Second party
 
Leader Terry Mills Paul Henderson
Party Country Liberal Labor
Leader since 29 January 2008 26 November 2007
Leader's seat Blain Wanguri
Last election 11 seats 13 seats
Seats before 11 12
Seats won 16 8
Seat change Increase 5 Decrease 4
Popular vote 46,653 33,594
Percentage 50.6% 36.5%
Swing Increase 5.2 Decrease 6.7
TPP 55.8%[1] 44.2%[1]
TPP swing Increase 5.1 Decrease 5.1


Chief Minister before election

Paul Henderson
Labor

Elected Chief Minister

Terry Mills
Country Liberal

A general election was held in the Northern Territory on Saturday 25 August 2012, which elected all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.

The 11-year Labor Party government led by Chief Minister Paul Henderson was decisively defeated in their attempt to win a fourth term against the opposition Country Liberal Party led by opposition leader Terry Mills with a swing of five seats, losing the normally safe Labor remote seats of Arafura, Arnhem, Daly, Namatjira and Stuart, whilst retaining their urban seats picked up at the 2001 election.[2][3]

The election was the beginning of an ongoing political realignment in the Northern Territory. Traditionally, remote Indigenous communities had strongly voted Labor. However, at this election, there was a large swing against Labor in Indigenous communities, resulting in the CLP gaining five remote seats usually considered safe Labor seats.

Results

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16 1 8
CLP Ind ALP
Results of the Northern Territory general election, Legislative Assembly[4]
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Country Liberal46,65350.63Increase 5.2316+5
Labor33,59436.46Decrease 6.728–5
Independents5,5666.04Decrease 1.081±0
Greens3,0393.30Decrease 1.000±0
First Nations2,0482.22New0±0
Sex Party7170.78New0±0
No Affiliation5260.57New0±0
Total92,143100.0025
Valid votes92,14396.77
Invalid/blank votes3,0723.23–0.9
Total votes95,215100.00
Registered voters/turnout123,80576.91+1.3
Country Liberal51,43555.82
Labor40,70944.18
Total92,144100.00

Independents: Gerry Wood

Two safe Labor seats were uncontested at the previous election and therefore did not contribute to votes and results, all seats were contested at this election with the two previously uncontested Labor seats both won by the CLP.

Popular vote
Country Liberal
50.6%
Labor
36.5%
Greens
3.3%
First Nations
2.2%
Sex Party
0.8%
Independents
6.0%
Other
0.6%
Two-party-preferred vote
Country Liberal
55.8%
Labor
44.2%
Seats
Country Liberal
64.0%
Labor
32.0%
Independents
4.00%

Seats changing hands

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Members in italics did not re-contest their Legislative Assembly seats at this election.

Seat Pre-2012 Swing Post-2012
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Arafura Labor Marion Scrymgour 14.0 15.0 1.0 Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu Country Liberal
Arnhem Labor Malarndirri McCarthy Unopp N/A 5.3 Larisa Lee Country Liberal
Daly Labor Rob Knight 5.8 10.5 4.7 Gary Higgins Country Liberal
Namatjira Labor Alison Anderson Unopp N/A 18.6 Alison Anderson Country Liberal
Stuart Labor Karl Hampton 15.1 18.6 3.5 Bess Price Country Liberal

Background

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Historically, remote areas had voted Labor while the urban areas had voted CLP. The CLP had governed since the initial 1974 election until Labor led by Clare Martin surprisingly came to power with a one-seat majority government at the 2001 election, mainly by sweeping Darwin's more diverse northern suburbs. Labor won in a landslide at the 2005 election, winning the second-largest majority in the Territory's history and reducing the CLP to only four seats. Although Labor led by Henderson retained a one-seat majority government at the 2008 election on 13 Labor, 11 CLP, 1 independent with only 49.3 percent of the two-party preferred vote, Labor had won two seats uncontested by the CLP—all seats were contested again at the 2012 election. Labor, the CLP, the Northern Territory Greens, the First Nations Political Party and the Australian Sex Party were running endorsed candidates.

A minority government was led by Henderson from mid-2009 when Alison Anderson resigned from the Labor Party to sit as an independent member of parliament. Anderson along with the existing independent Gerry Wood signed a letter to the speaker of parliament to push sittings forward, prompting CLP leader Mills to table a motion of no confidence on Monday 10 August 2009.[5][6][7] Wood ended up voting with the government, defeating the motion of no confidence.[8] Anderson joined the CLP in September 2011, resulting in 12 Labor, 12 CLP, 1 independent.[9] Wood and Anderson retained their seats at the 2012 election.

In October 2010, former CLP leader Jodeen Carney resigned in her seat, an Araluen by-election was held, the CLP retained the seat but suffered a 6.6-point two-party preferred swing.

Method

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Like the Australian House of Representatives, members were elected through full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates. The election was conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament.

In a change to polling in remote electorates, where most voting was previously conducted by mobile polling teams, for the first time there was full election day voting in major regional indigenous centres. As such, swings may be distorted. The conducting of a formal polling place could also alter the way voting takes places and increase the local turnout. Mobile polling teams were still used but they took many fewer votes than in the past. In addition, for the first time in the territory, there was an electronic feed of results, the last administration in Australia to go electronic.[10]

Date

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The Henderson Labor government introduced fixed four-year terms following the previous election.[11]

The Legislative Assembly was dissolved on 6 August 2012. The electoral roll was closed on 8 August and nominations on 10 August, prior to polling day on 25 August.[12]

The election was held on the same day as the Heffron state by-election in New South Wales.

Retiring MPs

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Labor

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Candidates

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Sitting members are listed in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour.

Electorate Held by Labor candidate CLP candidate Greens candidate Other candidates
 
Arafura Labor Dean Rioli Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu George Pascoe Jeannie Gadambua (FNPP)
Araluen CLP Adam Findlay Robyn Lambley Edan Baxter (FNPP)
Arnhem Labor Malarndirri McCarthy Larisa Lee
Barkly Labor Gerry McCarthy Rebecca Healy Valda Shannon (FNPP)
Stewart Willey (Ind)
Blain CLP Geoff Bahnert Terry Mills Daniel Fejo (FNPP)
Braitling CLP Deborah Rock Adam Giles Barbara Shaw Colin Furphy (Ind)
Brennan CLP Russell Jeffrey Peter Chandler
Casuarina Labor Kon Vatskalis Jane Johnson
Daly Labor Rob Knight Gary Higgins David Pollock Trevor Jenkins (-)
Bill Risk (FNPP)
Drysdale CLP James Burke Lia Finocchiaro Ross Bohlin (Ind)
Fannie Bay Labor Michael Gunner Tony Clementson Ken Bird
Fong Lim CLP Ashley Marsh Dave Tollner Matt Haubrick Peter Burnheim (ASP)
Goyder CLP Damien Smith Kezia Purick John Kearney (-)
Greatorex CLP Rowan Foley Matt Conlan Evelyne Roullet Phil Walcott (Ind)
Johnston Labor Ken Vowles Jo Sangster Alana Parrott-Jolly Peter Bussa (-)
Krystal Metcalf (ASP)
Karama Labor Delia Lawrie Rohan Kelly Frances Elcoate
Katherine CLP Cerise King Willem Westra van Holthe Teresa Cummings (Ind)
Namatjira Labor Des Rogers Alison Anderson Warren H Williams (FNPP)
Nelson Independent Sharon McAlear Judy Cole Gerry Wood (Ind)
Nhulunbuy Labor Lynne Walker Allen Fanning Kendall Trudgen (Ind)
Nightcliff Labor Natasha Fyles Kim Loveday Owen Gale Andrew Arthur (Ind)
Stuart Blanch (Ind)
Peter Rudge (Ind)
Felicity Wardle (ASP)
Port Darwin CLP Alan James John Elferink David Andrews Rowena Leunig (ASP)
Sanderson CLP Jodie Green Peter Styles Jillian Briggs (ASP)
Dimitrious Magriplis (FNPP)
Stuart Labor Karl Hampton Bess Price Maurie Japarta Ryan (FNPP)
Wanguri Labor Paul Henderson Rhianna Harker

Unregistered parties and groups

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  • Two previous One Nation candidates ran, One Nation Northern Territory Branch President John Kearney in Goyder and Peter Bussa from NSW in Johnston.

Electoral pendulum

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The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Results are notional calculations of the redistribution.[13]

Pre-election pendulum

[edit]

Members listed in italics did not re-contest their seat at the election.

Labor seats
Marginal
Fannie Bay Michael Gunner ALP 0.9
Daly Robert Knight ALP 5.8
Fairly safe
Johnston Chris Burns ALP 6.9
Safe
Nightcliff Jane Aagaard ALP 10.7
Karama Delia Lawrie ALP 10.8
Arafura Marion Scrymgour ALP 14.0
Casuarina Kon Vatskalis ALP 14.3
Wanguri Paul Henderson ALP 14.7
Stuart Karl Hampton ALP 15.0
Barkly Gerry McCarthy ALP 15.6
Very safe
Nhulunbuy Lynne Walker ALP 24.2
Arnhem Malarndirri McCarthy ALP Unopp
Namatjira Alison Anderson ALP Unopp
Independent seats
Nelson Gerry Wood IND 28.7 v CLP
Country Liberal seats
Marginal
Brennan Peter Chandler CLP 2.7
Port Darwin John Elferink CLP 2.9
Fong Lim Dave Tollner CLP 4.3
Sanderson Peter Styles CLP 5.2
Fairly safe
Goyder Kezia Purick CLP 8.4
Katherine Willem W-v-Holthe CLP 8.4
Drysdale Ross Bohlin CLP 9.3
Safe
Blain Terry Mills CLP 10.6
Greatorex Matt Conlan CLP 16.5
Very safe
Braitling Adam Giles CLP 20.3 v GRN
Araluen Robyn Lambley CLP 24.7

Post-election pendulum

[edit]
Country Liberal seats
Marginal
Arafura Francis Maralampuwi Xavier CLP 1.0
Sanderson Peter Styles CLP 3.1
Stuart Bess Price CLP 3.5
Daly Gary Higgins CLP 4.7
Arnhem Larisa Lee CLP 5.3
Fairly safe
Fong Lim Dave Tollner CLP 7.3
Port Darwin John Elferink CLP 9.6
Safe
Blain Terry Mills CLP 13.2
Brennan Peter Chandler CLP 14.2
Greatorex Matt Conlan CLP 14.8
Drysdale Lia Finocchiaro CLP 15.3
Goyder Kezia Purick CLP 16.7
Namatjira Alison Anderson CLP 18.6
Very safe
Araluen Robyn Lambley CLP 22.2
Katherine Willem Westra Van Holthe CLP 22.3
Braitling Adam Giles CLP 23.6
Labor seats
Marginal
Johnston Ken Vowles ALP 5.7
Fairly safe
Karama Delia Lawrie ALP 6.4
Fannie Bay Michael Gunner ALP 6.8
Wanguri Paul Henderson ALP 7.0
Barkly Gerry McCarthy ALP 7.6
Nightcliff Natasha Fyles ALP 9.2
Casuarina Kon Vatskalis ALP 9.3
Safe
Nhulunbuy Lynne Walker ALP 19.0
Independent seats
Nelson Gerry Wood IND 9.2 v CLP

Newspaper endorsements

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Newspaper Endorsement
The Australian Country Liberal[14]
NT News Labor[citation needed]

References

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  1. ^ a b "Antony Greens's Election Blog: Final Figures for 2012 Northern Territory Election". ABC News. 2 September 2012. Retrieved 3 September 2012.
  2. ^ "State of the Parties - Northern Territory Votes 2012".
  3. ^ "As it happened: NT votes 2012". 25 August 2012.
  4. ^ Legislative Assembly General Election - 25th August 2012 Archived 1 June 2016 at the Wayback Machine, Northern Territory Electoral Commission.
  5. ^ "D-Day brought forward". Northern Territory News. 7 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
  6. ^ "NT Labor may be ousted next week". ABC News. 7 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
  7. ^ "Labor's fate uncertain". The Age. 11 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
  8. ^ "Labor survives D-day in NT showdown". The Australian. 14 August 2009. Archived from the original on 17 August 2009. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
  9. ^ "Anderson 'mates' with an old enemy". Northern Territory News. 9 September 2011. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
  10. ^ "Antony Green". 11 October 2011.
  11. ^ Green, Antony (4 August 2009). "Fixed Term Parliaments face test in Northern Territory". ABC News. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
  12. ^ Green, Antony (13 June 2012). "2012 Northern Territory Election Website now live". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 13 June 2012.
  13. ^ Pendulum - Northern Territory Votes 2012, Australian Broadcasting Corporation
  14. ^ "Embrace the chance for a fresh start in the Territory". The Australian. News Limited. 25 August 2012. Retrieved 25 August 2012.
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