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2007 VK184

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2007 VK184
The 2014 close approach of 2007 VK184[1]
Discovery[2]
Discovered byCatalina Sky Survey (703)
Discovery date12 November 2007
Designations
Orbital characteristics[1]
Epoch 2022-Aug-09 (JD 2459800.5)[1]
Uncertainty parameter 1[1]
Observation arc6.37 years
Aphelion2.7098 AU
Perihelion0.74286 AU
1.7263 AU
Eccentricity0.56969
828.5 d (2.27 yr)
22.8 km/s[a]
201.99°
Inclination1.2208°
253.57°
73.649°
Earth MOID0.00044 AU (66,000 km)
Venus MOID0.055 AU (8,200,000 km)[3]
Mars MOID0.033 AU (4,900,000 km)
Physical characteristics
~130 meters (430 ft)[4]
Mass3.3×109 kg (assumed)[4]
22.0[1]

2007 VK184 is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, and estimated to be approximately 130 meters (430 ft) in diameter.[4] It was listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a Torino Scale rating of 1 for a potential impactor in June 2048.[4] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 28 March 2014.[5]

2023

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The asteroid will come to opposition on 24 April 2023 when it will have a solar elongation of 177 degrees and an apparent magnitude of 22.[6] Then on 15 July 2023 the asteroid will harmlessly pass 0.2275 AU (34.03 million km) from Earth.[1]

Description

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2007 VK184 was discovered on 12 November 2007 by the Catalina Sky Survey.[2] It was recovered on 26 March 2014 by Mauna Kea,[7][3] and removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 28 March 2014.[5] By 4 January 2008, with an observation arc of 52 days, there was a 1 in 2700 chance of an impact with Earth on 3 June 2048.[8] The Sentry Risk Table, using an observation arc of 60 days, showed the asteroid had a 1 in 1820 chance (0.055%) of impacting Earth on 3 June 2048.[4] Since the March 2014 recovery, it is known that the asteroid will pass 0.013 AU (1,900,000 km; 1,200,000 mi) from Earth on 2 June 2048.[1]

2014 passage

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Before the 2014 close approach, the asteroid had a modest observation arc of 60 days,[4] and the imprecise trajectory of this asteroid was complicated by close approaches to Earth, Venus and Mars.[1] On 23 May 2014, the asteroid passed 0.17 AU (25,000,000 km; 16,000,000 mi) from Earth[1] and reached an apparent magnitude of ~20.8.[9] As expected the close approach allowed astronomers to recover the asteroid on 26 March 2014 and refine the odds of a future collision.[3] As the asteroid gets closer to Earth, the positional uncertainty becomes larger.[10] By recovering the asteroid well before closest approach you can avoid searching a larger region of the sky.[10] Most asteroids rated 1 on the Torino Scale are later downgraded to 0 after more observations come in.

Risk assessments were calculated based on a diameter of 130 meters.[4] It was estimated that, if it were ever to impact Earth, it would enter the atmosphere at a speed of 19.2 km/s and would have a kinetic energy equivalent to 150 megatons of TNT.[4] Assuming the target surface is sedimentary rock, the asteroid would impact the ground with the equivalent of 40 megatons of TNT and create a 2.1 kilometers (1.3 mi) impact crater.[11] Asteroids of approximately 130 meters in diameter are expected to impact Earth once every 11000 years or so.[11]

2048

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On 26–27 March 2014, additional observations were made which ruled out the chance of an impact in 2048.[10] On 2 June 2048 the asteroid will pass 5 lunar distances from Earth[1] with a 3-sigma uncertainty region of ±20000 km.[12]

2118

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By the Earth approach of June 2118 the known approaches become more divergent.

2118 Earth approach
Date Minimum
possible
approach 		Maximum
possible
approach
2118-Jun-06 ± 2 days 0.00089 AU (133 thousand km)[1][13] 0.041 AU (6.1 million km)[1]

See also

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  • 99942 Apophis, a NEO that, for a few days, was thought to have a slight probability of striking the Earth in 2029. But the likelihood that would happen was quickly determined to be zero.

Notes

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  1. ^ v = 42.1219 √1/r − 0.5/a, where r is the distance from the Sun, and a is the major semi-axis. Average velocity is at r=a=1.7 AU.

References

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2007 VK184)" (last observation: 2014-03-27; arc: 6.37 years). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 26 October 2016. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  2. ^ a b "MPEC 2007-V94 : 2007 VK184". IAU Minor Planet Center. 13 November 2007. Retrieved 27 October 2010.
  3. ^ a b c "2007 VK184 Orbit". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h "2007 VK184 Earth Impact Risk Summary". Wayback Machine:NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 17 October 2013. Archived from the original on 17 October 2013. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  5. ^ a b "Date/Time Removed". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 3 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  6. ^ "Horizons Batch for 24 Apr 2023 Opposition". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 29 July 2022.
  7. ^ "MPEC 2014-F50 : 2007 VK184". IAU Minor Planet Center. 28 March 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  8. ^ "WayBack Machine archive from 10 Jan 2008". Wayback Machine. 10 January 2008. Archived from the original on 10 January 2008. Retrieved 20 February 2013.
  9. ^ "2012 VK184 Ephemerides for 23 May 2014". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Retrieved 21 February 2013.
  10. ^ a b c "Asteroid 2007 VK184 Eliminated as Impact Risk to Earth". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 2 April 2014. Archived from the original on 8 November 2015. Retrieved 3 April 2014.
  11. ^ a b Robert Marcus; H. Jay Melosh & Gareth Collins (2010). "Earth Impact Effects Program". Imperial College London / Purdue University. Retrieved 20 February 2013. (solution using 130 meters, 2600 kg/m3, 19.2 km/s, 45 degrees, target: sedimentary rock)
  12. ^ "Horizons Batch for 2048-Jun-02". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 29 July 2022. Retrieved 29 July 2022. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2021-Apr-15 generates RNG_3sigma = 18862 km for 2048-Jun-02.)
  13. ^ "Close approaches for 2007VK184 from 1950 to 2122". European Space Agency. Archived from the original on 30 July 2022. Retrieved 30 July 2022.
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