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2004 Indian general election analysis

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The 2004 general elections defied the predictions made by pre-poll predictions and exit polls and allowed the newly formed UPA alliance led by Sonia Gandhi, to come to power. This election also saw the rise of marginalized parties like the left, to join forces with the opposition, which led to a major realignment in social and political power.
Though pre-poll predictions were for an overwhelming majority for the BJP, the exit polls (immediately after the elections and before the counting began) predicted a hung parliament. However, even the exit polls could only indicate the general trend and nowhere close to the final figures. There is also the general perception that as soon as the BJP started realising that events might not proceed entirely in its favour, it changed the focus of its campaign from India Shining to issues of stability. The Congress, who was regarded as "old-fashioned" by the ruling BJP, was largely backed by poor, rural, lower-caste and minority voters that did not participate in the economic boom of previous years that created a large wealthy middle class, and thus it achieved its overwhelming victory.
The reverses in the pre-poll predictions are ascribed to various reasons depending on the point of view.

  • People were more concerned about issues of their immediate environment such as water scarcity, drought, etc., than national issues.
  • The anti-incumbency factor was at work for the BJP allies.

State by State analysis

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Andhra Pradesh

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Voting Pattern in Andhra Pradesh
Social Background INC+ TDP+
Gender
Male 47% 42%
Female 54% 41%
Social Class
Poor 49% 43%
Very Poor 50% 41%
OBCs
Peasant OBCs 45% 48%
Lower OBCs 47% 45%
Rural Classes
Farmers 41% 49%
Agricultural workers 51% 41%
Young voters 57% 38%

Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis[1]

Karnataka

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Voting pattern in Karnataka
Category INC BJP+ JD(S) Others
Upper caste 23% 65% 7% 5%
Vokkaliga 38% 18% 43% 1%
Lingayat 30% 60% 5% 5%
OBCs 35% 36% 23% 6%
Dalit 45% 32% 8% 16%
Adivasi 29% 35% 35% 2%
Muslims 55% 19% 21% 5%
Others 39% 37% 15% 9%
Considerable dissatisfaction with the government
Category Deteriorated Same as before Improved No opinion
Corruption 49% 26% 11% 13%
Drinking water 44% 26% 24% 5%
Uninterrupted power supply 39% 27% 28% 4%

Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis[2]

Kerala

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Voting pattern in Kerala
Category LDF UDF BJP
Hindu upper castes 40% 37% 18%
Nairs 41% 29% 27%
Ezhavas 59% 22% 18%
OBCs 49% 36% 13%
Dalits 71% 15% 10%
Muslims 39% 58% 2%
Christians 28% 64% 2%
Considerable dissatisfaction with the Anthony government
Category Deteriorated Same as before Improved No opinion
Drinking water 49% 32% 16% 3%
PDS 38% 42% 14% 6%
Public health 27% 43% 23% 7%
Education 23% 31% 38% 7%
Electricity 31% 44% 19% 6%
Employment 50% 32% 13% 5%
Agriculture 59% 22% 13% 6%
Industries 40% 34% 15% 11%

Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis[3]

Tamil Nadu

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Voting Pattern in Tamil Nadu
Category DMK+ AIADMK+ Others
Gender
Male 54% 32% 14%
Female 49% 39% 12%
Locality
Rural 50% 35% 15%
Urban 57% 36% 7%
Social class
Very poor 44% 37% 17%
Poor 55% 31% 14%
Lower middle 57% 37% 6%
Middle 51% 39% 10%
Caste
Upper caste 33% 54% 13%
Thevar 50% 47% 3%
Vanniyars 61% 33% 6%
Chettiyars 47% 30% 23%
Gounders 57% 33% 10%
Nadars 57% 36% 7%
Lower OBCs 55% 33% 12%
Chekkliyars, Pallars, etc. 39% 38% 23%
other Dalits 40% 37% 23%
Muslims 78% 11% 11%
Tell me how good each of the leaders are for Tamil Nadu...
Karunanidhi rated better than Jayalalithaa
Rating M. Karunanidhi J. Jayalalithaa
Bad 13% 31%
Average 31% 33%
Good 29% 17%
Very good 22% 14%
Do not know 5% 5%

Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis[4]

References

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  1. ^ "Arithmetic and anti-incumbency knocked Naidu out". Chennai, India: The Hindu. May 20, 2004. Retrieved 2009-07-20.
  2. ^ "A clear case of ticket-splitting in Karnataka". The Hindu. Chennai, India. 2004-05-20.
  3. ^ "Kerala bucks the national trend, once again". The Hindu. Chennai, India. 2004-05-20.
  4. ^ Thsks (2004-05-20). "The Hindu : State by State : Alliance effect, swing factor propelled DPA victory". Chennai, India. Archived from the original on 2011-09-22. Retrieved 2009-07-20.
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