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An unnamed subtropical storm in the north Atlantic in January 2023.

A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.[1]

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As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were uncertain whether they should be characterized as tropical or extratropical cyclones. They were officially recognized and titled by the National Hurricane Center in 1972. Beginning in 2002, subtropical cyclones began receiving names from the official tropical cyclone lists in the north Atlantic basin. Subtropical cyclones are also recognized in the south-west Indian Ocean and south Atlantic basins.

There are two definitions currently used for subtropical cyclones depending on their location. Across the north Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean, they require some central convection fairly near the center surrounding a warming core existing in the mid-levels of the troposphere. Across the eastern half of the northern Pacific however, they require a mid-tropospheric cyclone to be cut off from the main belt of the westerlies and with only a weak surface circulation. Subtropical cyclones have wider wind fields with the maximum sustained winds located further from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center.[2]

Since they form from initially extratropical cyclones which have colder temperatures aloft than normally found in the tropics, the sea surface temperatures required for their formation are lower than the tropical cyclone threshold (around 26.5°C (79.7°F))[3] by 3°C (5°F), lying around 23 °C (73 °F). This also means that subtropical cyclones are more likely to form outside the traditional bounds of the north Atlantic hurricane season and at higher latitudes. Subtropical cyclones are also observed to form in the south Atlantic, where subtropical cyclones are observed in all months.[4]

History of term

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Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, the terms semi-tropical and quasi-tropical were used for what would become known as the subtropical cyclones.[5] The term subtropical cyclone initially merely referred to any cyclone located in the subtropical belt near and just north of the horse latitudes. Later, intense debate ensued in the late 1960s, after a number of hybrid cyclones formed in the Atlantic Basin. In 1972, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) finally designated these "hybrid" storms as true subtropical cyclones in real-time,[6] and updated the hurricane database to include subtropical cyclones from 1968 through 1971.

The term "neutercane" began to be used for small subtropical cyclones below 100 miles in diameter[7] which formed from mesoscale features, and the NHC began issuing public statements during the 1972 Atlantic hurricane season employing that classification. This name was not noted as controversial in contemporary news reports, but it was quickly dropped less than a year later. Recent articles, published after the year 2000, have suggested that the name "neutercane" was considered sexist in the 1970s, but there do not appear to be any published reports from that period making this claim.[8]

Naming

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Subtropical Storm Gustav in 2002, the first system to be given a name as a subtropical cyclone

In the north Atlantic basin, subtropical cyclones were initially named from the NATO phonetic alphabet list in the early to mid-1970s.[6] In the intervening years of 1975–2001, subtropical storms were either named from the traditional list and still was considered tropical in real-time, or used a separate numbering system instead. Between 1992 and 2001, two different numbers were given to subtropical depressions or subtropical storms, one for public use, the other one for NRL and NHC reference. For example, Hurricane Karen in 2001 was initially known as Subtropical Storm One as well as AL1301 (or 13L for short).[9] In 2002, the NHC began giving numbers to subtropical depressions and names to subtropical storms from the same sequence as tropical cyclones. From 2002 onward, Subtropical Depression 13L would be known as Subtropical Depression Thirteen instead. Hurricane Gustav of 2002 was the first subtropical storm to receive a name but became tropical shortly after naming. Subtropical Storm Nicole from the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was the first subtropical storm that did not become tropical since the policy change. A subtropical storm from the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season also did not become tropical, but was not named since it was not recognized until post-season analysis.[10]

In the southern Indian Ocean, subtropical cyclones are also named once winds reach tropical storm or gale force.[11]

Since 2011, subtropical storms in the western south Atlantic Ocean are named by the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center.[12]

Formation

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A water vapor loop showing the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea in May 2007

Subtropical cyclones can form in a wide band of latitude, mainly south of the 50th parallel in the northern hemisphere.[13] Due to the increased frequency of cyclones which cut off from the main belt of the westerlies during the summer and fall, subtropical cyclones are significantly more frequent across the north Atlantic than the northwestern Pacific Ocean.[14] In the eastern half of the north Pacific Ocean and north Indian Ocean, the older subtropical cyclone definition term is still used, which requires a weak circulation forming underneath a mid to upper-tropospheric low which has cut off from the main belt of the westerlies during the cold season (winter), similar to the north Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean. In the case of the north Indian Ocean, the formation of this type of vortex leads to the onset of monsoon rains during the wet season.[15] In the southern hemisphere, subtropical cyclones are regularly observed across southern portions of the Mozambique Channel.[11]

Most subtropical cyclones form when a deep cold-core extratropical cyclone drops down into the subtropics. The system becomes blocked by a high latitude ridge, and eventually sheds its frontal boundaries as its source of cool and dry air from the high latitudes diverts away from the system, and warms the central circulation, allowing further transition. Temperature differences between the 500 hPa pressure level and the sea surface temperatures initially exceed the dry adiabatic lapse rate, which causes an initial round of thunderstorms to form at a distance east of the center. Due to the initial cold temperatures aloft, sea surface temperatures usually need to reach at least 20 °C (68 °F) for this initial round of thunderstorms. The initial thunderstorm activity humidifies the environment around the low pressure system, which destabilizes the atmosphere by reducing the lapse rate needed for convection. When the next shortwave or upper-level jet streak (wind maximum within the jet stream) moves nearby, the convection reignites closer to the center, which warms the core and develops the system into a true subtropical cyclone.[16] The average sea surface temperature that helps lead to subtropical cyclogenesis is 24 °C (75 °F).[1][17] If the thunderstorm activity becomes deep and persistent, allowing its initial low level warm core to deepen, extension to tropical cyclogenesis is possible.[13] The locus of formation for north Atlantic subtropical cyclones is out in the open ocean; the island of Bermuda is regularly impacted by these systems.[18]

The south Atlantic environment for formation of subtropical cyclones has both stronger vertical wind shear and lower sea surface temperatures, yet subtropical cyclogenesis is regularly observed in the open ocean in the south Atlantic. A second mechanism for formation has been diagnosed for south Atlantic subtropical cyclones: lee cyclogenesis in the region of the Brazil Current.[4]

Subtropical cyclone formation is extremely rare in the far southeastern Pacific Ocean, due to the cold sea-surface temperatures generated by the Humboldt Current and unfavorable wind shear. In late April 2015, a rare subtropical cyclone was identified to have formed in this region. This system was unofficially dubbed Katie by researchers.[19] Another subtropical cyclone was identified at 77.8 degrees longitude in May 2018, just off the coast of Chile.[20] This system was unofficially named Lexi by researchers.[21] A subtropical cyclone was spotted just off the Chilean coast in January 2022.[22][23]

Transition from extratropical

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By gaining tropical characteristics, an extratropical low may transit into a subtropical depression or storm. A subtropical depression/storm may further gain tropical characteristics to become a pure tropical depression or storm, which may eventually develop into a hurricane, and there are at least ten cases of tropical cyclones transforming into a subtropical cyclone (Tropical Storm Gilda in 1973, Subtropical Storm Four in 1974, Tropical Storm Jose in 1981, Hurricane Klaus in 1984, Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, Tropical Storm Lee in 2011, Hurricane Humberto in 2013, Tropical Storm Ian in 2016, Typhoon Jelawat in 2018, and Typhoon Surigae in 2021). There have also been three recorded cases of a storm transitioning from tropical to extratropical back to a subtropical cyclone; as seen with the Caribbean–Azores hurricane in 1970, Hurricane Georges in 1980, and Hurricane Beryl in 2018. Generally, a tropical storm or tropical depression is not called subtropical while it is becoming extratropical and vice versa, after hitting either land or colder waters. This transition normally requires significant instability through the atmosphere, with temperature differences between the underlying ocean and the mid-levels of the troposphere requiring over 38 °C, or 68 °F, of contrast in this roughly 5,900 meters (19,400 ft) layer of the lower atmosphere. The mode of the sea surface temperatures that subtropical cyclones form over is 23 °C (73 °F).[17] Transition from subtropical cyclones into fully tropical cyclones occurs only in very rare cases over the south Atlantic Ocean, such as Hurricane Catarina in 2004.[4]

Characteristics

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Subtropical Cyclone One in 1979 is one of only two subtropical cyclones in the north Atlantic to reach hurricane-equivalent intensity.

Intensity

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Subtropical cyclones can have maximum winds extending farther from the center than in a purely tropical cyclone and have no weather fronts linking directly to the center of circulation. In the Atlantic Basin, the United States NOAA classifies subtropical cyclones similarly to tropical cyclones, based on maximum sustained surface winds. Those with winds below 18 m/s, (65 km/h, 35 knots, or 39 mph) are called subtropical depressions, while those at or above this speed are referred to as subtropical storms.[24] Diagrams which depict a cyclone's phase depict subtropical cyclones with a shallow warm core and as asymmetric systems, similar to tropical cyclones which have begun the transition to an extratropical cyclone.[25][2][26]

Subtropical cyclones with hurricane-force winds of 33 m/s, (119 km/h, 64 knots, or 74 mph) or greater are no longer recognized by the National Hurricane Center. Once a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane-force winds, it is then automatically assumed to have become a fully tropical hurricane even if it still has subtropical characteristics.[27] Despite this however, prior to the start of modern policies in the Atlantic there were two subtropical cyclones, one in 1968 and another in 1979, that attained hurricane-force winds while subtropical.[28] In addition, one system, Subtropical Depression 11 during the 2000–01 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, was analyzed by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to have reached hurricane strength as a subtropical cyclone, but Météo-France (MFR) only considers it to have been a subtropical depression.[29]

Examples during the off-season

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Subtropical Storm Alberto near Florida on May 27, 2018.

Subtropical cyclones are more likely than tropical cyclones to form outside of a region's designated hurricane season. Examples during the 21st century in the north Atlantic include:

Types

[edit]

Upper-level low

[edit]

The most common type of subtropical storm is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 160 kilometers (99 mi) or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively wide zone of maximum winds that is located further from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.[32]

Mesoscale low

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A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, also known as a "dying" frontal zone, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 50 kilometers (31 mi). The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 160 kilometers (99 mi). These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core, and in 1972 this type of subtropical cyclone was ephemerally referred to as a "neutercane".[33]

Kona storm

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Main article: Kona storm
A subtropical storm in December 2010, originally a Kona storm

Kona storms (or Kona lows) are deep cyclones that form during the cool winter season of the central Pacific Ocean. A definition change in the term during the early 1970s makes categorization of the systems more complex, as many kona lows are extratropical cyclones, complete with their own weather fronts. Those across the northeast Pacific Ocean consider them subtropical cyclones as long as a weak surface circulation is present.[15] Kona is a Hawaiian term for leeward, which explains the change in wind direction for the Hawaiian Islands from easterly to southerly when this type of cyclone is present.[34]

Australian east coast lows

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Main article: Australian east coast low
An Australian east coast low in June 2013

Australian east coast lows (known locally as east coast lows and sometimes as east coast cyclones[35]) are extratropical cyclones,[36] the most intense of these systems have many of the characteristics of subtropical cyclones.[37] They develop between 25˚south and 40˚south and within 5˚ of the Australian coastline,[35] also typically during the winter months.[38][39] Each year there are about ten "significant impact" maritime lows.[40] Explosive cyclogenesis is seen on average just once per year, but these storms cause significant wind and flood damage when they occur.[38] Australian east coast cyclones vary in size from mesoscale (approximately 10 km to 100 km) to synoptic scale (approximately 100 km to 1,000 km).[41][42] These storms which mostly affect the southeast coast should not be confused with Australian region tropical cyclones which typically affect the northern half of the continent instead.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b Mark P. Guishard; Jenni L. Evans; Robert E. Hart (July 2009). "Atlantic Subtropical Storms. Part II: Climatology". Journal of Climate. 22 (13): 3574–3594. Bibcode:2009JCli...22.3574G. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2346.1. S2CID 51435473.
  2. ^ a b Jenni L. Evans; Mark P. Guishard (July 2009). "Atlantic Subtropical Storms. Part I: Diagnostic Criteria and Composite Analysis". Monthly Weather Review. 137 (7): 2065–2080. Bibcode:2009MWRv..137.2065E. doi:10.1175/2009MWR2468.1.
  3. ^ Tory, K. J.; Dare, R. A. (2015-10-15). "Sea Surface Temperature Thresholds for Tropical Cyclone Formation". Journal of Climate. 28 (20): 8171–8183. Bibcode:2015JCli...28.8171T. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00637.1. ISSN 0894-8755. S2CID 140543585.
  4. ^ a b c Jenni L. Evans; Aviva J. Braun (November 2012). "A climatology of subtropical cyclones in the south Atlantic". Journal of Climate. 25 (21): 7328–7340. Bibcode:2012JCli...25.7328E. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00212.1.
  5. ^ David B. Spiegler (1973). Many times, subtropical cyclones have a small warm core. Reply. Archived 2009-02-25 at the Wayback Machine Monthly Weather Review, April 1973, p. 380. Retrieved on 2008-04-20.
  6. ^ a b R. H. Simpson and Paul J. Hebert (1973). Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1972. Archived 2011-05-25 at the Wayback Machine Monthly Weather Review, April 1973, pp. 323–332. Retrieved on 2008-06-14.
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  17. ^ a b David Mark Roth (2002-02-15). "A Fifty-year History of Subtropical Cyclones" (PDF). Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-04-17. Retrieved 2006-10-04.
  18. ^ Mark P. Guishard; Elizabeth A. Nelson; Jenni L. Evans; Robert E. Hart; Dermott G. O’Connell (August 2007). "Bermuda subtropical storms". Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. 97 (1–4): 239–253. Bibcode:2007MAP....97..239G. doi:10.1007/s00703-006-0255-y. S2CID 120260805.
  19. ^ Diamond, Howard J (August 25, 2015). "Review of the 2014/15 Tropical Cyclone Season in the Southwest Pacific Ocean Basin". Climate Program Office. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on February 9, 2022. Retrieved October 16, 2017.
  20. ^ Jonathan Belles (May 9, 2018). "Extremely Rare Southeast Pacific Subtropical Cyclone Forms Off the Chilean Coast". The Weather Channel. Archived from the original on June 4, 2022. Retrieved May 10, 2018.
  21. ^ Steve Young (5 July 2018). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks - May 2018". Australia Severe Weather. Archived from the original on 4 September 2018. Retrieved 3 September 2018.
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  23. ^ "South American Forecast Discussion". Weather Prediction Center. 13 January 2022. Archived from the original on 15 January 2022. Retrieved 15 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
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  25. ^ Robert E. Hart (April 2003). "A Cyclone Phase Space Derived from Thermal Wind and Thermal Asymmetry". Monthly Weather Review. 131 (4): 585–616. Bibcode:2003MWRv..131..585H. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0585:ACPSDF>2.0.CO;2. S2CID 3753455.
  26. ^ Robert Hart (2003). Cyclone Phase Analysis and Forecast: Help Page. Archived 2012-05-28 at the Wayback Machine EUMeTrain. Retrieved on 2009-03-01.
  27. ^ Masters, Jeff. "Tropical, subtropical, extratropical?". Weather Underground. Archived from the original on 30 August 2018. Retrieved 4 August 2017.
  28. ^ "Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT version 2)" (Database). United States National Hurricane Center. April 5, 2023. Retrieved November 26, 2024. Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  29. ^ Kenneth R. Knapp; Michael C. Kruk; David H. Levinson; Howard J. Diamond; Charles J. Neumann (2010). 2001 1120002001:HSK2201 (2001171S35037). The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone best track data (Report). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Archived from the original on 2016-03-05. Retrieved 2023-07-09.
  30. ^ a b c d e f g h National Hurricane Center (2017). Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT2). Archived 2017-07-12 at the Wayback Machine Retrieved on 2017-04-24.
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  32. ^ National Hurricane Center (2009). Glossary of NHC Terms. Archived 2012-09-27 at the Wayback Machine Retrieved on 2009-02-07.
  33. ^ Neal Dorst (2007). Subject: A18) What is a neutercane? Archived 2009-01-15 at the Wayback Machine Hurricane Research Division. Retrieved on 2009-02-07.
  34. ^ Ian Morrison and Steven Businger (2002). SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE AND EVOLUTION OF A KONA LOW. Archived 2007-05-27 at the Wayback Machine University of Hawaiʻi. Retrieved on 2007-05-22.
  35. ^ a b Leslie, Lance M.; Speer, Milton S. (1998). "Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive Australian East Coast Cyclogenesis". Weather and Forecasting. 13 (3): 822–832. Bibcode:1998WtFor..13..822L. doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0822:SREFOE>2.0.CO;2.
  36. ^ Dowdy, Andrew J.; Graham A. Mills; Bertrand Timbal; Yang Wang (February 2013). "Changes in the Risk of Extratropical Cyclones in Eastern Australia". Journal of Climate. 26 (4): 1403–1417. Bibcode:2013JCli...26.1403D. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00192.1.
  37. ^ Dowdy, Andrew J.; Graham A. Mills; Bertrand Timbal (2011). "Large-scale indicators of Australian East Coast Lows and associated extreme weather events" (PDF). In Day K. A. (ed.). CAWCR technical report; 37. CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. ISBN 978-1-921826-36-8. Archived from the original (PDF) on 11 April 2013. Retrieved 7 April 2013.
  38. ^ a b Holland, Greg J.; Lynch, Amanda H.; Leslie, Lance M. (1987). "Australian East-Coast Cyclones. Part I: Synoptic Overview and Case Study". Monthly Weather Review. 115 (12): 3024–3036. Bibcode:1987MWRv..115.3024H. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<3024:AECCPI>2.0.CO;2.
  39. ^ Lim, Eun-Pa; Simmonds, Ian (2002). "Explosive Cyclone Development in the Southern Hemisphere and a Comparison with Northern Hemisphere Events". Monthly Weather Review. 130 (9): 2188–2209. Bibcode:2002MWRv..130.2188L. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2188:ECDITS>2.0.CO;2.
  40. ^ "About East Coast Lows". Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 2 April 2013. Retrieved 6 April 2013.
  41. ^ "Australian East Coast Storm 2007: Impact of East Coast Lows". Guy Carpenter. October 2007. Archived from the original on 28 January 2024. Retrieved 7 April 2013.
  42. ^ Hopkins, Linda C.; Holland, Greg J. (1997). "Australian Heavy-Rain Days and Associated East Coast Cyclones: 1958–92". Journal of Climate. 10 (4): 621–635. Bibcode:1997JCli...10..621H. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0621:AHRDAA>2.0.CO;2.
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