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2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election

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2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election
← 2011 November 3, 2015 2019 →
 
Nominee Phil Bryant Robert Gray
Party Republican Democratic
Electoral vote 85 37
Popular vote 480,399 234,858
Percentage 66.24% 32.38%
Bryant:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Gray:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Phil Bryant
Republican

Elected Governor

Phil Bryant
Republican

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The 2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015, to elect the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican governor Phil Bryant ran for re-election to a second and final term in office. This is the highest percentage that a Republican has ever won in a gubernatorial election in Mississippi.

The election gained national news coverage and attention due to the unexpected Democratic nominee selection of truck driver and former firefighter, Robert Gray, who had not had any political experience prior to his candidacy.[1]

As of 2023, this is by far the best performance by a Republican in a gubernatorial election in Mississippi. This is also the only time that the following counties have voted Republican for governor: Clay, Marshall, Quitman, Sharkey, and Tallahatchie.

Background

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Mississippi is one of nine states and territories that has lifetime limits of two terms for its governor. In 2011, with incumbent Republican governor Haley Barbour term-limited, Republican Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant was elected to succeed him. Bryant won the Republican primary with 59% of the vote and then defeated the Democratic nominee, Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, with 61% of the vote.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Result

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Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Phil Bryant (incumbent) 256,689 91.86%
Republican Mitch Young 22,738 8.14%
Total votes 279,427 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Robert Gray, truck driver and retired firefighter[3][9]
  • Valerie Short, physician[10]
  • Vicki Slater, attorney[11][12]

Declined

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Result

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Results by county
Democratic primary results[18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Robert Gray 152,087 50.80%
Democratic Vicki Slater 91,104 30.43%
Democratic Valerie Short 56,177 18.77%
Total votes 299,368 100.00%

Reform Party nomination

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Candidate

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General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Safe R October 26, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report[21] Safe R October 27, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe R October 29, 2015
DKE[23] Safe R October 29, 2015

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Phil
Bryant (R) 		Robert
Gray (D) 		Shawn
O'Hara (Ref) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[24] October 21–25, 2015 625 ± 4% 66% 28% 1% 5%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Phil
Bryant (R) 		Jim
Hood (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[25] July 10–13, 2014 691 ± 3.7% 44% 33% — 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Phil
Bryant (R) 		Brandon
Presley (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[25] July 10–13, 2014 691 ± 3.7% 49% 26% — 25%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Phil
Bryant (R) 		Valerie
Short (D) 		Other Undecided
Mason-Dixon[26] April 21–23, 2015 625 ± 4% 63% 28% 3%[27] 6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Phil
Bryant (R) 		Vicki
Slater (D) 		Other Undecided
Mason-Dixon[28] April 21–23, 2015 625 ± 4% 61% 30% 2%[27] 7%

Results

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CandidatePartyPopular voteElectoral vote
Votes%Votes%
Phil Bryant (incumbent)Republican Party480,39966.248569.67
Robert GrayDemocratic Party234,85832.383730.33
Shawn O'HaraReform Party9,9501.37
Total725,207100.00122100.00
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ Robertson, Campbell (September 7, 2015). "Chosen by Mississippi Democrats, Shy Trucker is at a Crossroad". The New York Times.
  2. ^ Geoff Pender (January 18, 2015). "Power Rankings: Top Session Issues". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved January 28, 2015.
  3. ^ a b Wagster Pettus, Emily (February 26, 2015). "Bryant to face primary challenge from Mitch Young". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 27, 2015.
  4. ^ Geoff Pender (July 19, 2014). "Pender: Who's running for what in '15". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved September 7, 2014.
  5. ^ Pender, Geoff (February 26, 2015). "McDaniel running for re-election to state Senate". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 27, 2015.
  6. ^ Alexander Burns (June 24, 2014). "Mississippi's revolution may be just starting". Politico. Retrieved June 24, 2014.
  7. ^ Pender, Geoff (February 26, 2015). "Watson running for re-election, not higher office". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 27, 2015.
  8. ^ "2015 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 25, 2021. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
  9. ^ Nave, R.L. (August 5, 2015). "Robert Gray in (Truck) Driver's Seat to Challenge Gov. Phil Bryant". Jackson Free Press. Retrieved August 5, 2015.
  10. ^ Wagster Pettus, Emily (February 27, 2015). "All 8 statewide Mississippi officials challenged in election". The Sun Herald. Archived from the original on March 1, 2015. Retrieved March 1, 2015.
  11. ^ a b c Pender, Geoff (February 14, 2015). "Candidates playing chicken with deadline". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 15, 2015.
  12. ^ Pender, Geoff (February 19, 2015). "Democratic Party announcing Slater for governor". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 19, 2015.
  13. ^ Abby Livingston (September 25, 2013). "Mississippi Republicans Wait for Cochran's Decision". Roll Call. Retrieved September 26, 2013.
  14. ^ Floyd Ingram (July 31, 2013). "Jim Hood to open state office in Houston". Chickasaw Journal. Retrieved July 23, 2014.
  15. ^ "AP analysis: Mississippi party leaders preparing strategy for 2015". Gulf Live. August 25, 2013. Retrieved July 23, 2014.
  16. ^ Wright, Jesse (January 13, 2015). "'Draft Bill' movement not gaining traction with Luckett". Clarksdale Press Register. Archived from the original on January 18, 2015. Retrieved January 14, 2015.
  17. ^ Gates, Jimmie E. (December 30, 2014). "Brandon Presley says he isn't running for governor". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved January 1, 2015.
  18. ^ "2015 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
  19. ^ "2015 Candidate Qualifying List" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved July 28, 2015.
  20. ^ "2015-16 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  21. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
  22. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 Governor". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.
  23. ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  24. ^ Mason-Dixon
  25. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ Mason-Dixon Archived May 20, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  27. ^ a b Shawn O'Hara (Reform)
  28. ^ Mason-Dixon Archived May 20, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
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Campaign websites (archived)

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