Opinion polling for the 2011 Portuguese legislative election

In the run up to the 2011 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous legislative election, held on 27 September 2009, to the day the next election was held, on 5 June 2011.

Nationwide polling

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Date	Polling Firm	Sample size						Others	Lead
5 June	2011 legislative election	5,585,054	28.1 74 seats	38.7 108 seats	11.7 24 seats	5.2 8 seats	7.9 16 seats	8.5 0 seats	10.7
5 Jun (20:00)	Exit Poll - RTP1 Universidade Católica	28,762	26.0–30.0 67 / 77	37.0–42.0 104 / 114	11.0–14.0 22 / 28	5.0–7.0 8 / 11	7.0–9.0 14 / 18	5.0–8.0 0 / 1	11.0 12.0
5 Jun (20:00)	Exit Poll - SIC Eurosondagem	42,712	25.5–29.7 69 / 77	38.3–42.5 102 / 109	11.1–13.9 22 / 25	4.5–6.7 7 / 10	6.8–9.0 15 / 16	—	12.8
5 Jun (20:00)	Exit Poll - TVI INTERCAMPUS	29,636	24.4–28.8 64 / 78	37.7–42.5 107 / 121	10.1–13.7 12 // 28	3.8–7.0 4 / 12	6.2–9.4 11 / 20	6.6–9.8 0 / 1	13.3 13.7
Exit polls
2 Jun	Eurosondagem	520	31.0	35.5	13.0	6.3	8.2	6.0	4.5
31 May–2 Jun	Aximage	968	29.2	37.4	12.5	6.7	8.0	6.2	8.2
1 Jun	Eurosondagem	507	31.1	35.9	13.0	5.9	7.8	6.3	4.8
29 May–1 Jun	Aximage	1,200	30.1	36.3	12.4	6.6	8.1	6.5	6.2
28 May–1 Jun	INTERCAMPUS	1,026	31.1	36.5	11.6	6.0	7.4	7.3	5.4
31 May	Eurosondagem	503	31.3	35.4	13.4	6.0	7.9	6.0	4.1
28–31 May	Marktest	1,208	30.1	38.5	9.7	4.5	8.5	8.7	8.4
30 May	Eurosondagem	522	32.2	35.5	12.6	6.3	7.6	5.8	3.3
28–29 May	Universidade Católica	3,963	31.0	36.0	11.0	7.0	8.0	7.0	5.0
29 May	Eurosondagem	505	32.1	34.7	12.9	6.3	7.7	6.3	2.6
25–29 May	INTERCAMPUS	1,010	32.3	37.0	12.7	5.2	7.7	5.2	4.7
27 May	Eurosondagem	521	32.4	33.7	13.2	6.4	7.8	6.5	1.3
26 May	Eurosondagem	511	32.3	33.9	13.4	6.3	7.9	6.2	1.6
21–26 May	INTERCAMPUS	1,015	34.1	35.8	11.3	6.5	7.7	4.5	1.7
25 May	Eurosondagem	515	32.5	33.6	12.8	6.5	8.1	6.5	1.1
24 May	Eurosondagem	510	32.0	33.7	13.2	6.7	8.1	6.7	1.7
23 May	Eurosondagem	525	32.6	33.1	13.7	6.6	7.6	6.4	0.5
21–22 May	Universidade Católica	1,490	36.0	36.0	10.0	6.0	9.0	3.0	Tied
18–22 May	INTERCAMPUS	1,024	33.2	39.6	12.1	5.6	6.6	3.0	6.4
14–18 May	Aximage	750	29.5	31.1	12.9	5.2	7.3	14.0	1.6
11–15 May	INTERCAMPUS	1,025	35.4	36.1	12.6	6.2	7.5	2.2	0.7
7–12 May	INTERCAMPUS	1,029	36.8	33.9	13.4	6.0	7.4	2.4	2.9
9–10 May	Marktest	805	33.4	39.7	9.0	4.8	6.5	6.6	6.3
4–8 May	INTERCAMPUS	1,020	35.1	36.2	10.9	6.5	7.7	3.6	1.1
2–5 May	INTERCAMPUS	1,009	34.8	37.0	10.5	7.0	7.9	2.8	2.2
28 Apr–May 3	Eurosondagem	2,048	32.5	35.8	11.1	6.6	7.7	6.3	3.3
29 Apr–May 2	Aximage	600	28.3	31.5	11.2	7.7	9.3	12.0	3.2
30 Apr–May 1	Universidade Católica	1,370	36.0	34.0	10.0	5.0	9.0	6.0	2.0
14–19 Apr	Eurosondagem	1,025	32.7	36.3	11.3	6.9	7.8	5.0	3.6
15–17 Apr	Marktest	805	36.1	35.3	7.5	6.0	8.1	7.0	0.8
8–10 Apr	INTERCAMPUS	917	33.1	38.7	9.4	7.6	8.1	3.1	5.6
2–3 Apr	Universidade Católica	1,288	33.0	39.0	7.0	6.0	8.0	7.0	6.0
28–30 Mar	Aximage	600	28.4	34.8	10.8	6.5	8.5	11.0	6.4
27–30 Mar	Eurosondagem	1,021	30.4	37.3	10.7	7.7	8.4	5.5	6.9
24–26 Mar	INTERCAMPUS	805	32.8	42.2	8.7	7.9	7.1	1.3	9.4
18–23 Mar	Marktest	805	24.5	46.7	6.3	8.9	6.7	6.9	22.2
3–7 Mar	Aximage	600	27.9	37.9	8.9	6.5	10.7	8.1	10.0
23–28 Feb	Eurosondagem	1,021	30.6	36.9	9.9	7.7	8.6	6.3	6.3
17–23 Feb	Marktest	797	29.1	47.8	4.2	5.9	6.1	6.9	18.7
3–8 Feb	Eurosondagem	1,025	29.3	36.3	10.2	9.5	9.2	5.5	7.0
1–3 Feb	Aximage	600	27.8	37.8	9.5	6.5	9.3	9.1	10.0
19–21 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,548	30.3	37.4	9.6	9.3	8.4	5.0	7.1
16–19 Jan	INTERCAMPUS	1,004	30.8	36.8	5.8	7.3	7.1	12.2	6.0
5–11 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,010	29.6	37.3	10.1	9.0	8.8	5.2	7.7
3–6 Jan	Aximage	600	25.4	38.3	8.8	7.5	9.9	10.1	12.9
2011
10–15 Dec	INTERCAMPUS	607	30.1	41.6	7.7	10.7	8.8	1.1	11.5
5–7 Dec	Aximage	600	27.2	39.8	8.8	7.4	8.4	8.4	12.6
2–7 Dec	Eurosondagem	1,020	30.3	36.2	9.6	9.3	8.4	6.2	5.9
16–19 Nov	Marktest	804	26.9	44.3	6.9	8.7	6.7	6.5	17.4
12–17 Nov	INTERCAMPUS	609	30.5	39.2	8.5	11.0	9.7	1.1	8.7
4–9 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,025	30.0	36.9	9.3	9.2	8.8	5.8	6.9
26–29 Oct	Aximage	600	26.5	35.2	9.1	8.4	9.8	11.0	8.7
23–25 Oct	Universidade Católica	1,140	26.0	40.0	7.0	12.0	8.0	7.0	14.0
19–24 Oct	Marktest	807	25.1	42.0	8.1	9.8	8.3	6.7	16.9
6–12 Oct	Eurosondagem	1,021	35.3	35.3	8.0	7.8	8.4	5.2	Tied
4–6 Oct	INTERCAMPUS	609	32.0	35.2	9.1	10.6	11.1	2.0	3.2
1–4 Oct	Aximage	600	31.7	30.6	10.2	8.6	7.6	11.3	1.1
14–17 Sep	Marktest	804	35.7	38.0	6.7	6.5	6.5	6.6	2.3
6–9 Sep	Aximage	600	33.8	32.1	7.9	8.3	8.6	9.3	1.7
1–7 Sep	Eurosondagem	1,035	36.0	35.8	8.4	7.1	7.7	5.0	0.2
28 Jul–Aug 2	Eurosondagem	1,031	35.0	36.0	9.0	7.2	8.0	4.8	1.0
20–26 Jul	Marktest	802	33.3	37.3	7.5	8.5	6.8	6.6	4.0
16–19 Jul	INTERCAMPUS	603	34.4	39.2	5.9	9.0	9.5	2.0	4.8
8–11 Jul	Euroexpansão	1,504	31.7	41.0	3.8	6.5	6.3	10.7	9.3
1–6 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,035	33.7	36.2	9.6	7.7	8.0	4.8	2.5
1–4 Jul	Aximage	600	30.6	34.9	6.7	8.2	10.4	9.2	4.3
19–21 Jun	Universidade Católica	1,179	34.0	37.0	6.0	6.0	10.0	7.0	3.0
15–20 Jun	Marktest	804	24.1	47.7	6.9	8.9	6.0	6.4	23.6
2–8 Jun	Eurosondagem	1,025	34.8	34.9	10.1	7.7	7.5	5.0	0.1
1–7 Jun	Aximage	600	30.5	31.6	7.4	9.7	9.9	10.9	1.1
18–20 May	Marktest	804	27.6	43.9	7.5	7.7	7.1	6.2	16.3
13–18 May	Eurosondagem	1,024	36.2	33.0	11.3	7.1	7.7	4.7	3.2
4–7 May	Aximage	600	30.2	31.5	8.2	8.6	10.4	11.1	1.3
27–30 Apr	INTERCAMPUS	803	35.8	41.6	5.8	7.8	7.8	1.2	5.8
20–25 Apr	Marktest	800	34.0	39.8	4.5	8.3	7.2	6.2	5.8
8–13 Apr	Eurosondagem	1,020	36.0	28.5	13.1	8.0	8.2	6.2	7.5
5–8 Apr	Aximage	600	32.2	30.4	10.8	8.3	8.7	9.6	1.8
16–21 Mar	Marktest	806	35.6	30.8	9.9	11.0	6.6	6.1	4.8
6–9 Mar	Universidade Católica	1,148	41.0	33.0	10.0	6.0	6.0	4.0	8.0
5–9 Mar	Aximage	600	34.0	25.1	11.5	8.9	7.4	13.1	8.9
4–9 Mar	Eurosondagem	1,019	36.9	26.2	14.8	8.8	8.4	4.9	10.7
23–27 Feb	INTERCAMPUS	1,015	40.4	34.4	7.8	10.1	6.3	1.0	6.0
16–21 Feb	Marktest	804	35.9	30.9	9.5	10.6	6.8	6.3	5.0
10–13 Feb	Aximage	600	32.4	26.3	10.7	9.2	8.3	13.1	6.1
4–9 Feb	Eurosondagem	1,025	38.1	26.9	13.6	8.4	8.3	4.7	11.2
2–5 Feb	Aximage	600	33.8	24.8	12.1	8.6	8.7	12.0	9.0
19–23 Jan	Marktest	803	40.5	29.2	10.2	5.5	8.5	6.1	11.3
7–12 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,010	38.0	27.4	12.1	9.3	8.4	4.8	10.6
6–11 Jan	Aximage	600	33.4	26.5	11.7	10.0	8.2	10.2	6.9
2010
7–10 Dec	Aximage	600	32.5	24.4	12.0	10.5	7.7	12.9	8.1
25 Nov–Dec 1	Eurosondagem	1,031	38.5	26.9	12.7	9.2	7.7	5.0	11.6
17–19 Nov	Marktest	808	41.7	25.6	12.1	8.0	6.5	6.1	16.1
3–6 Nov	Aximage	600	35.2	27.3	10.3	8.8	7.8	10.6	7.9
29 Oct–Nov 3	Eurosondagem	1,030	38.8	27.5	12.5	8.4	8.0	4.8	11.3
20–24 Oct	Marktest	806	42.9	23.7	12.5	8.8	6.0	6.1	19.2
12–16 Oct	Aximage	600	35.3	25.4	9.7	10.8	6.0	12.8	9.9
11 October 2009	2009 local elections	5,535,104	37.7	38.8	3.1	3.0	9.7	7.7	1.1
27 September 2009	2009 legislative election	5,681,258	36.6 97 seats	29.1 81 seats	10.4 21 seats	9.8 16 seats	7.9 15 seats	6.2 0 seats	7.5

Leadership polls

Preferred prime minister

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Sócrates vs Passos Coelho

Date	Polling Firm	José Sócrates	Passos Coelho	Neither	Both	No opinion	Lead
Aximage	31 May–2 Jun	24.3	39.6	25.8		10.3	15.3
Aximage	29 Apr–May 2	36.2	36.8	27.0			0.6
Aximage	28–30 Mar	35.2	36.3	28.5			1.1
Aximage	3–7 Mar	34.5	35.8	29.7			1.3
Aximage	1–3 Feb	34.3	36.9	28.8			2.6
Aximage	3–6 Jan	29.5	38.4	32.1			8.9
2011
Aximage	5–7 Dec	31.6	38.6	29.8			7.0
Aximage	26–29 Oct	28.4	38.8	27.1	2.3	3.4	10.4
Aximage	1–4 Oct	33.7	37.2	22.0	2.1	5.0	3.5
Aximage	6–9 Sep	31.8	38.5	21.8	1.8	6.1	6.7
Aximage	1–4 Jul	29.8	45.0	16.7	2.4	6.1	15.2
Aximage	1–7 Jun	31.4	44.6	16.1	1.5	6.4	13.2
Aximage	4–7 May	41.6	41.3	12.1	0.0	4.9	0.3
Aximage	5–8 Apr	35.9	34.7	13.7	1.2	14.5	1.2
2010

External links

• Marktest Opinion Poll Tracker
• ERC - Official publication of polls