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Opinion polling for the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum

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The Italian constitutional referendum took place on 4 December 2016. Opinion polling for the Italian constitutional referendum was ongoing in the months between the announcement of a referendum and the referendum polling day.

Opinion polls

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Graphical summary

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Polling data about the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum.

Polls

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Date Polling Firm Total Considering only Yes/No vote
checkYYes ☒NNo None / Don't know Lead checkYYes ☒NNo Lead
9 Nov 2016 Index Research 37.3 40.7 22.0 3.4 47.8 52.2 4.4
9 Nov 2016 Istituto Ixè 37.0 40.0 23.0 3.0 48.0 52.0 4.0
4–6 Nov 2016 EMG Acqua 34.8 38.3 26.9 3.5 47.6 52.4 4.8
4–5 Nov 2016 Instituto Tecnè 39.5 44.5 16.0 1.0 47.0 53.0 6.0
3–4 Nov 2016 Demopolis 35.9 38.1 26.0 2.2 48.5 51.5 3.0
2 Nov 2016 Eumetra Monterosa 26.0 32.0 42.0 6.0 45.0 55.0 10.0
2 Nov 2016 Index Research 38.1 40.9 21.0 2.8 48.2 51.8 3.6
2 Nov 2016 Istituto Ixè 38.0 39.0 23.0 1.0 49.0 51.0 2.0
28–30 Oct 2016 EMG Acqua 34.7 37.6 27.7 2.9 48.0 52.0 4.0
27–29 Oct 2016 Istituto Tecnè 23.0 25.8 51.2 2.8 47.1 52.9 5.8
27–28 Oct 2016 ScenariPolitici–Winpoll 25.2 27.8 47.0 2.6 47.5 52.5 5.0
26–27 Oct 2016 Demopolis 36.1 36.9 27.0 0.8 49.5 50.5 1.0
26–27 Oct 2016 Index Research 39.5 41.5 19.0 2.0 48.7 51.3 2.6
24–27 Oct 2016 Demos&Pi 35.0 39.0 26.0 4.0 47.3 52.7 5.4
26 Oct 2016 Eumetra Monterosa 23.0 27.0 50.0 4.0 46.0 54.0 8.0
26 Oct 2016 Istituto Ixè 37.0 40.0 23.0 2.0 48.1 51.9 3.8
22–23 Oct 2016 EMG Acqua 34.7 37.8 27.5 3.1 47.9 52.1 4.2
21–22 Oct 2016 IPR Marketing 24.1 24.9 51.0 0.8 49.2 50.8 1.6
21–22 Oct 2016 Tecnè 23.3 25.7 51.0 2.4 47.5 52.5 5.0
21–22 Oct 2016 Tecnè 23.3 25.7 51.0 2.0 47.5 52.5 5.0
21 Oct 2016 ScenariPolitici–Winpoll 25.9 28.1 46.0 2.2 48.0 52.0 4.0
18–19 Oct 2016 Index Research 38.8 41.2 20.0 2.4 48.5 51.5 3.0
17–19 Oct 2016 Demopolis 37.2 35.8 27.0 1.4 51.0 49.0 2.0
18 October 2016
U.S. President Barack Obama endorses the Yes
15–16 Oct 2016 EMG Acqua 33.8 37.0 29.2 3.2 47.7 52.3 4.6
15 Oct 2016 IPR Marketing 23.3 24.7 52.0 1.4 48.5 51.5 3.0
14–15 Oct 2016 Tecnè 23.5 25.5 51.0 2.0 48.0 52.0 4.0
14 Oct 2016 ScenariPolitici–Winpoll 25.4 28.6 46.0 3.2 47.0 53.0 6.0
11–12 Oct 2016 Index Research 38.9 41.1 20.0 2.2 48.6 51.4 2.8
12 Oct 2016 Istituto Ixè 37.0 37.0 26.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 0.0
10–12 Oct 2016 Demopolis 35.0 36.0 29.0 1.0 49.3 50.7 1.4
8–9 Oct 2016 EMG Acqua 32.3 36.3 31.4 3.0 47.1 52.9 5.8
5 Oct 2016 Istituto Ixè 38.0 37.0 25.0 1.0 50.7 49.3 1.4
3–5 Oct 2016 Sondaggi Bidimedia–Bi3 23.2 26.8 50.0 3.6 46.5 53.5 7.0
3–4 Oct 2016 Index Research 37.7 40.3 22.0 2.6 48.3 51.7 3.4
1–2 Oct 2016 EMG Acqua 31.4 36.0 32.6 2.2 46.6 53.4 6.8
30 Sep–1 Oct 2016 Ipsos SRL 23.0 25.0 44.0 2.0 48.0 52.0 4.0
29–30 Sep 2016 ScenariPolitici–Winpoll 25.2 27.8 47.0 2.6 47.5 52.5 5.0
28 Sep 2016 Istituto Ixè 38.0 36.0 26.0 2.0 51.4 48.6 2.8
27–28 Sep 2016 Index Research 34.4 36.6 29.0 2.2 48.5 51.5 3.0
25–27 Sep 2016 Demopolis 35.6 36.4 28.0 0.8 49.5 50.5 1.0
26 September 2016
The Government announces the date of the referendum
24–25 Sep 2016 EMG Acqua 29.6 35.5 34.9 5.9 45.5 54.5 9.0
22–23 Sep 2016 Lorien Consulting 37.0 36.0 27.0 1.0 50.7 49.3 1.4
21 Sep 2016 Eumetra Monterosa 17.0 21.0 62.0 4.0
21 Sep 2016 Istituto Ixè 38.0 35.0 27.0 3.0 52.1 47.9 4.2
20–21 Sep 2016 Index Research 35.8 37.2 27.0 1.4 49.0 51.0 2.0
17–18 Sep 2016 EMG Acqua 30.1 34.1 35.8 4.0 46.9 53.1 6.2
14 Sep 2016 Istituto Ixè 39.0 37.0 24.0 2.0 52.0 48.0 4.0
10–11 Sep 2016 EMG Acqua 28.5 30.8 40.7 2.3 48.1 51.9 3.8
7 Sep 2016 Istituto Ixè 40.0 36.0 24.0 4.0 52.6 47.4 5.2
3–4 Sep 2016 EMG Acqua 26.9 28.4 44.7 1.5 48.7 51.3 2.6
31 Aug 2016 Istituto Ixè 42.0 35.0 23.0 7.0 54.5 45.5 9.0
24–26 Aug 2016 ScenariPolitici–Winpoll 23.5 27.5 49.0 4.0 46.0 54.0 8.0
9–11 Aug 2016 ScenariPolitici–Winpoll 23.0 26.0 51.0 3.0 47.0 53.0 6.0
3 Aug 2016 Istituto Ixè 45.0 36.0 19.0 9.0 55.6 44.4 11.2
30–31 Jul 2016 EMG Acqua 28.9 29.5 42.0 0.6 49.1 50.9 1.8
27–28 Jul 2016 ScenariPolitici–Winpoll 21.8 24.2 54.0 2.4 47.5 52.5 5.0
27 Jul 2016 Istituto Ixè 44.0 38.0 18.0 6.0 53.7 46.3 7.4
23–24 Jul 2016 EMG Acqua 28.5 30.1 41.4 1.6 48.6 51.4 2.8
16–17 Jul 2016 EMG Acqua 27.8 29.5 42.7 1.7 48.5 51.5 3.0
16–18 Jul 2016 Demopolis 37.0 37.0 26.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 0.0
12–13 Jul 2016 Ipsos SRL 26.0 25.0 49.0 1.0 51.0 49.0 2.0
11 Jul 2016 Demos&Pi 37.0 30.0 33.0 7.0 55.2 44.8 10.4
9–10 Jul 2016 EMG Acqua 26.9 28.7 44.4 1.8 48.4 51.6 3.2
15 Jul 2016 IPR Marketing 24.0 26.0 50.0 2.0 48.0 52.0 4.0
6 Jul 2016 Istituto Ixè 27.0 32.0 41.0 5.0 45.8 54.2 8.4
4 Jul 2016 Euromedia Research 28.6 34.0 37.4 5.4 45.7 54.3 8.6
2–3 Jul 2016 EMG Acqua 27.4 29.9 42.7 2.5 47.8 52.2 4.4
27 Jun 2016 Euromedia Research 29.0 33.5 37.5 4.5 46.4 53.6 7.2
25–26 Jun 2016 EMG Acqua 29.3 29.0 41.7 0.3 50.3 49.7 0.6
23–24 Jun 2016 ScenariPolitici–Winpoll 22.1 25.9 52.0 3.8 46.0 54.0 8.0
23 Jun 2016 Istituto Ixè 34.6 37.4 28.0 2.8 48.0 52.0 4.0
19 Jun 2016
Local elections in many important cities (2nd round)
18–19 Jun 2016 EMG Acqua 28.6 27.2 44.2 1.4 51.3 48.7 2.6
15 Jun 2016 Euromedia Research 29.0 33.0 38.0 4.0 46.8 53.2 6.4
6 Jun 2016 Euromedia Research 29.9 32.5 37.6 2.6 47.9 52.1 4.2
5 Jun 2016
Local elections in many important cities (1st round)
3–4 Jun 2016 Index Research 42.0 38.0 20.0 4.0 52.5 47.5 5.0
3–4 Jun 2016 EMG Acqua 26.0 24.2 49.8 1.8 51.8 48.2 3.6
21 May 2016
Just a Yes campaign officially begins
18 May 2016 Istituto Ixè 33.1 35.9 31.0 2.8 48.0 52.0 4.0
16–17 May 2016 IPR Marketing 32.0 23.0 55.0 4.5 54.0 46.0 9.0
16 May 2016 Istituto Piepoli 41.0 33.0 26.0 8.0 55.4 44.6 10.8
14–15 May 2016 EMG Acqua 26.1 23.7 50.2 2.4 52.4 47.6 4.8
12–14 May 2016 Index Research 44.0 34.0 22.0 10.0 56.4 43.6 12.8
13 May 2016 Tecnè 29.1 25.9 45.0 3.2 53.0 47.0 6.0
10–13 May 2016 ScenariPolitici–Winpoll 29.7 30.3 40.0 0.6 49.5 50.5 1.0
11 May 2016 Istituto Ixè 33.1 38.9 28.0 5.8 46.0 54.0 8.0
9 May 2016 Istituto Piepoli 46.0 28.0 26.0 8.0 62.0 38.0 24.0
4 May 2016 Eumetra Monterosa 17.0 26.0 57.0 9.0 39.5 60.5 21.0
2 May 2016 Euromedia Research 30.0 32.5 37.5 2.5 48.0 52.0 4.0
29–30 Apr 2016 Index Research 50.0 30.0 20.0 20.0 62.5 37.5 25.0
27 Apr 2016 Istituto Ixè 35.7 34.3 30.0 1.4 51.0 49.0 2.0
26–27 Apr 2016 Demopolis 27.3 19.7 53.0 7.6 58.0 42.0 16.0
20 Apr 2016 Istituto Ixè 36.6 32.4 31.0 4.2 53.0 47.0 6.0
18 Apr 2016 Euromedia Research 25.3 24.7 50.0 0.3 50.3 49.7 0.6
15 Apr 2016 Euromedia Research 26.0 28.1 45.9 2.1 48.1 51.9 3.8
12–13 Apr 2016 ScenariPolitici–Winpoll 29.0 32.0 39.0 3.0 47.5 52.5 5.0
12 Apr 2016
The Parliament approves the constitutional reform bill
29 Mar 2016 Euromedia Research 26.2 25.8 48.0 0.4 50.4 49.6 0.8
10–11 Mar 2016 Index Research 52.0 25.0 23.0 27.0 68.0 32.0 36.0
22–25 Feb 2016 Demetra 60.0 21.0 19.0 39.0 74.0 26.0 48.0
22–25 Feb 2016 Demos&Pi 50.0 24.0 26.0 16.0 68.0 32.0 36.0
17 Feb 2016 Index Research 53.0 17.0 30.0 36.0 76.0 24.0 52.0
8 Feb 2016 Istituto Piepoli 42.2 23.8 34.0 21.6 64.0 36.0 28.0
5 Jan 2016 Euromedia Research 24.0 25.0 51.0 1.0 49.0 51.0 2.0
27–28 Jan 2016 Ipsos SRL 21.0 16.0 63.0 5.0 57.0 43.0 14.0
27 Jan 2016 Istituto Ixè 45.0 36.0 19.0 9.0 56.0 44.0 12.0
25 Jan 2016 Ipsos SRL 22.0 15.0 63.0 7.0 59.0 41.0 18.0
23–24 Jan 2016 EMG Acqua 34.5 14.8 50.7 19.7 69.9 30.1 39.8
15–20 Jan 2016 Index Research 59.8 28.2 12.0 31.6 68.0 32.0 36.0
13 Jan 2016 Istituto Ixè 44.0 32.0 24.0 12.0 58.0 42.0 16.0
9–11 Jan 2016 Demopolis 60.0 21.0 19.0 18.2 74.0 26.0 48.0
9–10 Jan 2016 EMG Acqua 36.1 17.9 46.0 18.2 66.8 33.2 33.6
16–24 Nov 2015 Demetra 60.0 18.3 21.7 18.3 68.3 31.7 36.6
9 Nov 2015 Euromedia Research 50.0 30.4 19.6 9.8 59.8 40.2 19.6
30 Oct 2015
I Vote No campaign officially begins
14 Oct 2015 Istituto Ixè 32.0 34.0 34.0 2.0 48.0 52.0 4.0
11–13 Oct 2015 Demopolis 67.0 18.0 15.0 49.0 79.0 21.0 58.0
12 Oct 2015 IPR Marketing 46.0 33.0 21.0 13.0 58.0 42.0 16.0
12 Oct 2015 Tecnè 41.0 35.0 24.0 6.0 54.0 46.0 8.0
5 Oct 2015 Euromedia Research 32.8 32.5 34.7 0.3 50.2 49.8 0.4
21 Sep 2015 Istituto Piepoli 48.0 41.0 11.0 7.0 54.0 46.0 8.0
31 May 2015
Regional elections in seven regions
11 Mar 2015 Istituto Ixè 28.0 41.0 31.0 4.0 41.0 59.0 18.0
4 Ago 2014 Istituto Piepoli 46.0 41.0 13.0 5.0 52.9 47.1 5.8
7 Jul 2014 Istituto Piepoli 53.0 35.0 12.0 18.0 60.0 40.0 20.0
28-30 Jun 2014 Lorien Consulting 29.0 21.0 50.0 4.0 54.0 46.0 8.0
25 May 2014
Democratic landslide victory in the European election
7 Apr 2014 IPR Marketing 57.0 23.0 20.0 34.0 71.0 29.0 42.0
31 Mar 2014 Istituto Piepoli 66.0 24.0 10.0 42.0 73.0 27.0 46.0
31 Mar 2014 Ipsos SRL 63.0 24.0 13.0 39.0 72.0 28.0 44.0
Source: Sondaggi Politico Elettorali – Italian Government