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In [[Climatology]], '''Global cooling''' is the term used to indicate, in reference to the Earth's climatic history, the times of decrease in average temperature of Earth's [[atmosphere]] and [[oceans]], due to natural causes ([[Solar cycle|solar cycles]], Earth's movements, variations in atmospheric gases ,...). Very often the term is inappropriately used as a synonym for ''[[Global colding]]''. The two expressions are both part of [[climate change]]'s topic which itself includes the stages of global heating, glaciations, and changes in precipitation regimes. |
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[[Image:Global Cooling Map.png|thumb|right|Mean temperature anomalies during the period 1965 to 1975 with respect to the average temperatures from 1937 to 1946. This dataset was not available at the time.]] |
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'''Global cooling''' was a [[conjecture]] during the [[1970s]] of imminent cooling of the [[Earth]]'s surface and atmosphere along with a posited commencement of [[glaciation]]. This hypothesis had mixed support in the [[scientific community]],<!-- ref in Introduction --> but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of [[newspaper|press reports]] that did not accurately reflect the scientific understanding of [[ice age]] cycles, and a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s. In contrast to the global cooling conjecture, the current [[scientific opinion on climate change]] is that the [[Earth]] has not durably cooled, but undergone [[global warming]] throughout the twentieth century.<ref name="grida7">{{cite web | url= http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf | format=[[Portable Document Format|PDF]] | title=Summary for Policymakers | work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | accessdate=2007-02-02 | date=2007-02-05 | publisher=[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]}}</ref> |
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== Introduction: general awareness and concern == |
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In the 1970s there was increasing awareness that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945. Of those scientific papers considering climate trends over the 21st century, only 10% inclined towards future cooling, while most papers predicted future warming.<ref name="The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus">{{cite paper | title=The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus |author=Peterson, Thomas & Connolley, William & Fleck, John | publisher=American Meteorological Society |url=http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/Myth-1970-Global-Cooling-BAMS-2008.pdf |date=September 2008 |doi=10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1}}</ref> The general public had little awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on climate, but [[Science News]] in May 1959 forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000, with a consequent warming trend.<ref>{{cite news| newspaper=Science News |date=May 9, 2009 |page=30 |title=Science Past from the issue of May 9, 1959 |url=http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/43155/title/Science_Past_from_the_issue_of_May_9%2C_1959}}</ref> The actual increase in this period was 29%. [[Paul R. Ehrlich]] mentioned climate change from [[greenhouse gases]] in 1968.<ref name="2005_07_01_backseatdriving_archive.html">{{cite web | title=Paul Erhlich on climate change in 1968 | work=Backseat driving | author= Erlich, Paul | url=http://backseatdriving.blogspot.com/2005_07_01_backseatdriving_archive.html#112148592454360291 | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }}</ref> By the time the idea of global cooling reached the public press in the mid-1970s temperatures had stopped falling, and there was concern in the climatological community about [[carbon dioxide]]'s warming effects.<ref>{{cite journal |author=Schneider SH |title=Atmospheric particles and climate: can we evaluate the impact of mans activities? |journal=Quaternary Research |volume=2 |issue=3 |pages=425–35 |year=1972 |month=November |doi=10.1016/0033-5894(72)90068-3 |laysummary=[http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/quat_res_1972.html#schneider Precis]}}</ref> In response to such reports, the [[World Meteorological Organization]] issued a warning in June 1976 that ''a very significant warming of global climate'' was probable.<ref>''World's temperature likely to rise''; [[The Times]]; 22 June 1976; pg 9; col A</ref> |
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Currently there are some concerns about the possible cooling effects of a slowdown or [[shutdown of thermohaline circulation]], which might be provoked by an increase of [[fresh water]] mixing into the North [[Atlantic]] due to [[glacier|glacial melting]]. The [[probability]] of this occurring is generally considered to be very low, and the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|IPCC]] notes, "even in models where the [[Thermohaline circulation|THC]] weakens, there is still a warming over [[Europe]]. For example, in all [[Global climate model|AOGCM]] integrations where the [[radiative forcing]] is increasing, the sign of the [[temperature]] change over north-west Europe is positive."<ref name="IPCC sci basis">{{cite web | title=Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis | author= Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/357.htm | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }}</ref> |
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==Physical mechanisms== |
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The cooling period is well reproduced by current (1999 on) [[global climate model]]s (GCMs) that include the physical effects of [[sulphate aerosols]], and there is now general agreement that [[aerosol]] effects were the dominant cause of the mid-20th century cooling. However, at the time there were two physical mechanisms that were most frequently advanced to cause cooling: aerosols and orbital forcing. |
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===Aerosols=== |
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Human activity — mostly as a by-product of [[fossil fuel]] [[combustion]], partly by [[land use]] changes — increases the number of tiny particles ([[aerosol]]s) in the atmosphere. These have a ''direct effect'': they effectively increase the planetary [[albedo]], thus cooling the [[planet]] by reducing the [[solar radiation]] reaching the surface; and an ''indirect effect'': they affect the properties of clouds by acting as [[cloud condensation nuclei]].<ref>{{cite journal |title=Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate |first1=S.I. |last1=Rasool |first2=S.H. |last2=Schneider |year=1971 |journal=Science |volume=173 |page=138 |doi=10.1126/science.173.3992.138 |issue=3992 |pmid=17739641 }}</ref> In the early 1970s some speculated that this cooling effect might dominate over the warming effect of the [[carbon dioxide|CO<sub>2</sub>]] release: see discussion of Rasool and Schneider (1971), below. As a result of observations and a switch to cleaner fuel burning, this no longer seems likely; current scientific work indicates that [[global warming]] is far more likely. Although the temperature drops foreseen by this mechanism have now been discarded in light of better theory and the observed warming, aerosols are believed to have contributed a cooling tendency (outweighted by increases in greenhouse gases) and also have contributed to "[[Global dimming|Global Dimming]]." |
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===Orbital forcing=== |
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[[Image:Vostok Petit data.svg|thumb|right|CO<sub>2</sub>, temperature, and dust concentration measured by Petit et al. from Vostok ice core at Antarctica.]] |
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'''Orbital forcing''' refers to the [[Milankovitch cycles|slow, cyclical changes]] in the tilt of Earth's [[Axis of rotation|axis]] and shape of its [[orbit]]. These cycles alter the total amount of sunlight reaching the earth by a small amount and affect the timing and intensity of the [[seasons]]. This mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the [[ice age]] [[climate change|cycles]], and understanding of the mechanism was increasing rapidly in the mid-1970s. |
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The seminal paper of Hays, Imbrie and Shackleton ''Variations in the earths orbit: pacemaker of the ice ages'' qualified its predictions with "forecasts must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with [[period]]s of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic [[oscillations]] at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate".<ref>{{cite journal |title=Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages |first1=J.D. |last1=Hays |first2=J. |last2=Imbrie |first3= N.J. |last3=Shackleton |journal=Science |volume=194 |page=1121 |doi=10.1126/science.194.4270.1121 |year=1976 |issue=4270 |pmid=17790893 }}</ref> |
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The idea that ice ages cycles were predictable appears to have become conflated with the idea that another one was due "soon" - perhaps because much of this study was done by geologists, who are accustomed to dealing with very long time scales and use "soon" to refer to periods of thousands of years. A strict application of the [[Milutin Milanković|Milankovitch]] theory does not allow the prediction of a "rapid" ice age onset (i.e., less than a century or two) since the fastest orbital period is about 20,000 years. Some creative ways around this were found, notably one championed by [[Nigel Calder]] under the name of "snowblitz", but these ideas did not gain wide acceptance. |
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It is common to see it asserted that the length of the current [[interglacial]] temperature peak is similar to the length of the preceding interglacial peak ([[Sangamon]]/[[Eem]]), and from this conclude that we might be nearing the end of this warm period. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the lengths of previous interglacials were regular; see appended figure. Petit et al. note that "Interglacials 5.5 and 9.3 are different from the [[Holocene]], but similar to each other in duration, shape and amplitude."<ref>{{cite journal |journal=Nature |title=Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica |author=Petit, J.R., et al. |volume=399 |pages=429–436 |year=1999 |doi=10.1038/20859 |issue=6735 }}</ref> During each of these two events, there is a warm period of 4 kyr followed by a relatively rapid cooling''. As an objection, the future orbital variations will not closely resemble those of the past. |
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==Concern in the mid-twentieth century== |
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===Pre-1970s=== |
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At a conference on climate change held in [[Boulder, Colorado]] in 1965, evidence supporting [[Milankovitch cycles]] triggered speculation on how the calculated small changes in sunlight might somehow trigger ice ages. In 1966 [[Cesare Emiliani]] predicted that "a new glaciation will begin within a few thousand years." In his 1968 book ''[[The Population Bomb]]'', [[Paul R. Ehrlich]] wrote "The [[greenhouse effect]] is being enhanced now by the greatly increased level of [[carbon dioxide]]... [this] is being countered by low-level clouds generated by contrails, dust, and other contaminants... At the moment we cannot predict what the overall climatic results will be of our using the [[atmosphere]] as a garbage dump."<ref name="2005_07_01_backseatdriving_archive.html"/> |
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===1970s awareness=== |
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{{Multiple image|direction=vertical|align=right|image1=Global cooling.jpg|image2=Instrumental Temperature Record (NASA).svg|width=200|caption1=The temperature record as seen in 1975; compare with the next figure.|caption2=Instrumental record of global average temperatures.}} |
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Concern peaked in the early 1970s, partly because of the [[historical temperature record|cooling trend]] then apparent (a cooling period began in 1945, and two decades of a cooling trend suggested a trough had been reached after several decades of warming), and partly because much less was then known about world climate and [[Ice age#Causes of ice ages|causes of ice ages]]. Although there was a cooling trend then, climate scientists were aware that predictions based on this trend were not possible - because the trend was poorly studied and not understood (for example see reference<ref>{{cite web | title= QJRMS, 1976, p 473 (Symons Memorial Lecture) | work=Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70's? No |author= Mason, B. J. | url=http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/mason.1976.html | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }}</ref>). However in the popular press the possibility of cooling was reported generally without the caveats present in the scientific reports. |
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In the 1970s the compilation of records to produce [[hemispheric]], or global, temperature records had just begun. |
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A history of the discovery of global warming states that: ''While neither scientists nor the public could be sure in the 1970s whether the world was warming or cooling, people were increasingly inclined to believe that global climate was on the move, and in no small way.''<ref>{{cite web | title=The Modern Temperature Trend | work=The Discovery of Global Warming | author= Weart, Spencer | url=http://www.aip.org/history/climate/20ctrend.htm#L_0338 | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }}</ref> |
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In 1972 Emiliani warned "Man's activity may either precipitate this new ice age or lead to substantial or even total melting of the ice caps..."<ref>{{cite journal |first1=Cesare |last1=Emiliani |title=Quaternary hypsithermals |journal=Quaternary Research |volume=2 |issue=3 |month=November |year=1972 |pages=270–3 |doi=10.1016/0033-5894(72)90047-6}}</ref> By 1972 a group of glacial-epoch experts at a conference agreed that "the natural end of our warm epoch is undoubtedly near";<ref>[http://www.aip.org/history/climate/cycles.htm#N_29_ Past Climate Cycles: Ice Age Speculations<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> but the volume of Quaternary Research reporting on the meeting said that "the basic conclusion to be drawn from the discussions in this section is that the knowledge necessary for understanding the mechanism of climate change is still lamentably inadequate". Unless there were impacts from future human activity, they thought that serious cooling "must be expected within the next few millennia or even centuries"; but many other scientists doubted these conclusions.<ref>{{cite web | title=Past Cycles: Ice Age Speculations | work=The Discovery of Global Warming | author= Weart, Spencer | url=http://www.aip.org/history/climate/cycles.htm | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }}</ref><ref name=Kukla72>{{cite journal |author=Kukla GJ, Matthews RK, Mitchell JM |title=Guest editorial: The end of the present interglacial |journal=Quaternary Research |volume=2 |issue=3 |pages=261–9 |year=1972 |month=November |doi=10.1016/0033-5894(72)90046-4 |laysummary=[http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/quat_res_1972.html Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70's? No]}}</ref> |
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In 1972, [[George Kukla]] and Robert Matthews, in a [[Science (journal)|Science]] write-up of a conference, asked when and how the current integlacial would end; concluding that "Global cooling and related rapid changes of environment, substantially exceeding the fluctuations experienced by man in historical times, must be expected within the next few millennia or even centuries."<ref>{{cite journal |title=When Will the Present Interglacial End? |first1=G.J. |last1=Kukla |first2=R.K. |last2=Matthews |journal=Science |year=1972 |volume=178 |issue=4057 |pages=190–202 |doi=10.1126/science.178.4057.190 |pmid=17789488 }}</ref> |
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=== 1970 SCEP report === |
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The 1970 "Study of Critical Environmental Problems"<ref>{{cite web | title=The 1970 SCEP report | work=Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70's? No |author= SCEP | url=http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/scep-1970.html | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }}</ref> reported the possibility of warming from increased carbon dioxide, but no concerns about cooling, setting a lower bound on the beginning of interest in "global cooling". |
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===1971 paper on warming and cooling factors=== |
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There was a paper by S. Ichtiaque Rasool and [[Stephen Schneider|Stephen H. Schneider]], published in the journal ''Science'' in July 1971. Titled "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate," the paper examined the possible future effects of two types of human environmental emissions: |
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# greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide; |
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# particulate pollution such as smog, some of which remains suspended in the atmosphere in aerosol form for years. |
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Greenhouse gases were regarded as likely factors that could promote global warming, while particulate [[pollution]] blocks sunlight and contributes to cooling. In their paper, Rasool and Schneider theorized that aerosols were more likely to contribute to climate change in the foreseeable future than greenhouse gases, stating that quadrupling aerosols could decrease the mean surface temperature (of Earth) by as much as 3.5 C. If sustained over a period of several years, they calculated, such a temperature decrease could be sufficient to trigger an ice age. |
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===1972 and 1974 National Science Board=== |
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The [[National Science Board]]'s ''Patterns and Perspectives in Environmental Science'' report of 1972 discussed the cyclical behavior of climate, and the understanding at the time that the planet was entering a phase of cooling after a warm period. "Judging from the record of the past interglacial ages, the present time of high temperatures should be drawing to an end, to be followed by a long period of considerably colder temperatures leading into the next glacial age some 20,000 years from now."<ref name="NSB72-p55">{{cite book |
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| authorlink = National Science Board (U.S.) |
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| title = Patterns and Perspectives in Environmental Science (Hardcover) |
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| series = Report of the National Science Board |
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| publisher = [[Government Printing Office]] |
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| year = 1972 |
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| url = http://www.archive.org/details/patternsperspect00nati |
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| accessdate = July 15, 2008 |
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| pages = 55 }} |
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</ref> But it also continued; "However, it is possible, or even likely, that human interference has already altered the environment so much that the climatic pattern of the near future will follow a different path."<ref name="NSB72-p55" /> |
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The Board's report of 1974, ''Science And The Challenges Ahead'' , continued on this theme. "During the last 20-30 years, world temperature has fallen, irregularly at first but more sharply over the last decade."<ref name="NSB74-p24">{{cite book |
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| authorlink = National Science Board (U.S.) |
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| title = Science and the challenges ahead : report of the National Science Board |
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| series = Report of the National Science Board |
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| publisher = [[Government Printing Office]] |
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| year = 1974 |
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| url = http://www.archive.org/details/sciencechallenge00nati |
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| accessdate = July 18, 2008 |
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| pages = 24 }} |
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</ref> However discussion of cyclic [[glacial period]]s does not feature in this report. Instead it is the role of man that is central to the report's analysis. |
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"The cause of the cooling trend is not known with certainty. But there is increasing concern that man himself may be implicated, not only in the recent cooling trend but also in the warming temperatures over the last century".<ref name="NSB74-p24" /> The report can not conclude whether carbon dioxide in warming, or agricultural and industrial pollution in cooling, are factors in the recent climatic changes, noting; |
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"Before such questions as these can be resolved, major advances must be made in understanding the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere and [[oceans]], and in measuring and tracing [[particulates]] through the system."<ref name="NSB74-p25">{{cite book |
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| authorlink = National Science Board (U.S.) |
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| title = Science and the challenges ahead : report of the National Science Board |
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| series = Report of the National Science Board |
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| publisher = [[Government Printing Office]] |
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| year = 1974 |
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| url = http://www.archive.org/details/sciencechallenge00nati |
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| accessdate = July 18, 2008 |
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| pages = 25 }} |
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</ref> |
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===1975 National Academy of Sciences report=== |
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There also was a study by the U.S. [[United States National Academy of Sciences|National Academy of Sciences]] about issues that needed more research.<ref>{{cite web | title=The 1975 US National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Report | work=Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70's? No |author= U. S. National Academy of Sciences| url=http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/nas-1975.html | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }}</ref> This heightened interest in the fact that climate can change. The 1975 NAS report titled "Understanding Climate Change: A Program for Action" did not make predictions, stating in fact that "we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climate." Its "program for action" consisted simply of a call for further research, because "it is only through the use of adequately [[calibration|calibrated]] numerical models that we can hope to acquire the information necessary for a quantitative assessment of the climatic impacts." |
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The report further stated: |
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:''The climates of the earth have always been changing, and they will doubtless continue to do so in the future. How large these future changes will be, and where and how rapidly they will occur, we do not know.''. |
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This is not consistent with claims like those of [[Science & Environmental Policy Project]] (SEPP) that "the NAS "experts" exhibited ... hysterical fears" in the 1975 report.<ref>{{cite web | title=Scientists add to heat over global warming |author= Singer, S. Fred | url=http://web.archive.org/web/20051119045242/http://sepp.org/glwarm/sciaddheat.html | accessdate=November 19, 2005 }}</ref> |
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===1974 Time Magazine article=== |
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While these discussions were ongoing in scientific circles, other accounts appeared in the popular media. In their June 24, 1974 issue, [[Time (magazine)|Time]] presented an article titled ''Another Ice Age?'' that noted "the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades" but noted that "Some scientists... think that the cooling trend may be only temporary" <ref>http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914,00.html</ref> |
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===1975 Newsweek article=== |
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An April 28, 1975 article in ''[[Newsweek]]'' magazine was titled <ref name=newsweek-1975>{{cite news |title=The Cooling World |author=Peter Gwynne |newspaper=Newsweek |date=April 28, 1975 }}</ref> "The Cooling World", it pointed to "ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change" and pointed to "a drop of half a degree [Fahrenheit] in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968." The article claimed "The evidence in support of these predictions [of global cooling] has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it." The ''Newsweek'' article did not state the cause of cooling; it stated that "what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery" and cited the NAS conclusion that "not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions." |
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The article mentioned the alternative solutions of "melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting Arctic rivers" but conceded these were not feasible. The ''Newsweek'' article concluded by criticizing government leaders: "But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies...The longer the planners (politicians) delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality." The article emphasized sensational and largely unsourced consequences - "resulting famines could be catastrophic", "drought and desolation," "the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded", "droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons," "impossible for starving peoples to migrate," "the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age."<ref name=newsweek-1975/> |
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On October 23, 2006, Newsweek issued a correction, over 31 years after the original article, stating that it had been "so spectacularly wrong about the near-term future" (though editor Jerry Adler claimed that 'the story wasn't "wrong" in the journalistic sense of "inaccurate."').<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.newsweek.com/id/72481 |title=Remember Global Cooling? |author=Jerry Adler |date=October 23, 2006 |newspaper=Newsweek }}</ref> |
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=== Other 1970s sources === |
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In the late 1970s there were several popular books on the topic, including ''The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age''.<ref>{{cite journal |
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| first=Stephen |
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| last=Schneider |
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| authorlink=Stephen Schneider |
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| date=December 29, 1977 |
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| title=Against instant books |
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| journal=Nature |
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| volume=270 |
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| issue=22 |
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| pages=650 |
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| url=http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Schneider1977.pdf |
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| doi=10.1038/270650a0 |
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}}</ref> |
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===1979 WMO conference=== |
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Later in the decade, at a [[WMO]] conference in 1979, F K Hare reported that: |
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{{quotation| |
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:Fig 8 shows [...] 1938 the warmest year. They [temperatures] have since fallen by about 0.4 °C. At the end there is a suggestion that the fall ceased in about 1964, and may even have reversed. |
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:Figure 9 challenges the view that the fall of temperature has ceased [...] the weight of evidence clearly favours cooling to the present date [...] The striking point, however, is that interannual variability of world temperatures is much larger than the trend [...] it is difficult to detect a genuine trend [...] |
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:It is questionable, moreover, whether the trend is truly global. Calculated variations in the 5-year mean air temperature over the southern hemisphere chiefly with respect to land areas show that temperatures generally rose between 1943 and 1975. Since the 1960-64 period this rise has been strong [...] the scattered SH data fail to support a hypothesis of continued global cooling since 1938. [p 65]<ref name="wcc-1979.html">{{cite web | title=World Climate Conference 1979 | work=Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70's? No | url=http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/wcc-1979.html | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }}</ref> |
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}} |
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==More recent climate cooling predictions== |
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===1980s=== |
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Concerns about [[nuclear winter]] arose in the early 1980s from several reports. Similar speculations have appeared over effects due to catastrophes such as [[Impact event|asteroid impacts]] and [[Yellowstone Caldera|massive volcanic eruptions]]. A [[Kuwaiti oil fires|prediction]] that massive oil well fires in [[Kuwait]] would cause significant effects on climate was quite incorrect. |
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===1990s=== |
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The idea of a global cooling as the result of [[global warming]] was already proposed in the 1990s.<ref>{{ cite journal | last = Calvin | first = William H. | authorlink = | coauthors = | year = 1998 | month = | title = The great climate flip-flop | journal = The Atlantic Monthly | volume = 281 | issue = 1 | pages = 47–64 | id = | url = http://WilliamCalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm | accessdate = | quote = }}</ref> In 2003, the [[Office of Net Assessment]] at the [[United States Department of Defense]] was commissioned to produce a study on the likely and potential effects of a modern climate change, especially of a [[shutdown of thermohaline circulation]].<ref name="Schwartz2003">{{cite paper |last=Schwartz |first=Peter |author= |authorlink= |coauthors=Randall, Doug |title=An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security |version= |pages= |publisher= |date=October 2003 |url=http://www.grist.org/pdf/AbruptClimateChange2003.pdf |format= |id= |accessdate= }}</ref> The study, conducted under ONA head [[Andrew Marshall (foreign policy strategist)|Andrew Marshall]], modelled its prospective climate change on the [[8.2 kiloyear event]], precisely because it was the middle alternative between the [[Younger Dryas]] and the [[Little Ice Age]]. The study caused controversy in the media when it was made public in 2004.<ref>{{cite news |first=David |last=Stripp |authorlink= |coauthors= |title=The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare |url=http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2004/02/09/360120/index.htm |work=[[Fortune (magazine)|Fortune]] |publisher= |date=February 9, 2004 |accessdate= }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |first=Mark |last=Townsend |authorlink= |coauthors=Harris, Paul |title=Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us |url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver |work=The Observer |publisher= |date=2004-02-22 |accessdate= }}</ref> However, scientists acknowledge that “abrupt climate change initiated by [[Greenland ice sheet|GIS]] melting is not a realistic scenario for the 21st century.”<ref name="Jungclaus2006">{{ cite journal | last = Jungclaus | first = Johann H. | coauthors = ''et al.'' | year = 2006 | month = | title = Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation? | journal = [[Geophysical Research Letters]] | volume = 33 | pages = L17708 | doi = 10.1029/2006GL026815 }}</ref>. |
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==Present level of knowledge== |
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Currently, the concern that cooler temperatures would continue, and perhaps at a faster rate, has been observed to be incorrect by the IPCC.<ref name="IPCC sci basis" /> More has to be learned about climate, but the growing records have shown that the cooling concerns of 1975 have not been borne out. |
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As for the prospects of the end of the current interglacial (again, valid only in the absence of human perturbations){{Citation needed|date=December 2009}}: it isn't true that interglacials have previously only lasted about 10,000 years; and Milankovitch-type calculations indicate that the present interglacial would probably continue for tens of thousands of years naturally.<ref>{{cite journal |
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| author=EPICA community members |
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| date=June 10, 2004 |
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| title=Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core |
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| journal=Nature |
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| volume=429 |
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| issue=6992 |
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| pages=623–8 |
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| doi=10.1038/nature02599 |
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| last2=Barbante |
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| first2=Carlo |
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| last3=Barnes |
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| first3=Piers R. F. |
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| last4=Marc Barnola |
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| first4=Jean |
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| last5=Bigler |
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| first5=Matthias |
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| last6=Castellano |
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| first6=Emiliano |
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| last7=Cattani |
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| first7=Olivier |
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| last8=Chappellaz |
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| first8=Jerome |
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| last9=Dahl-Jensen |
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| first9=Dorthe |
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| pmid=15190344 }}</ref> Other estimates (Loutre and Berger, based on orbital calculations) put the unperturbed length of the present interglacial at 50,000 years.<ref>{{ cite journal | last = Berger | first = A. | coauthors = Loutre, M. F. | year = 2002 | title = An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead? | journal = Science | volume = 297 | issue = 5585 | pages = 1287–8 | doi = 10.1126/science.1076120 | pmid = 12193773 }}</ref> Berger (EGU 2005 presentation) believes that the present CO<sub>2</sub> perturbation will last long enough to suppress the next glacial cycle entirely. |
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As the NAS report indicates, scientific knowledge regarding climate change was more uncertain than it is today. At the time that Rasool and Schneider wrote their 1971 paper, climatologists had not yet recognized the significance of greenhouse gases other than water vapor and carbon dioxide, such as [[methane]], [[nitrous oxide]], and [[Haloalkane#Chlorofluoro compounds (CFC, HCFC, HFC)|chlorofluorocarbons]].<ref>{{cite web | title=Other Greenhouse Gases | work=The Discovery of Global Warming | author= Weart, Spencer |url=http://www.aip.org/history/climate/othergas.htm | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }}</ref> Early in that decade, carbon dioxide was the only widely studied human-influenced greenhouse gas. The attention drawn to atmospheric gases in the 1970s stimulated many discoveries in future decades. As the temperature pattern changed, global cooling was of waning interest by 1979.<ref name="wcc-1979.html"/> |
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== See also == |
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* [[Anti-greenhouse effect]] |
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* [[Global dimming]] |
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* [[Global warming]] |
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* [[History of climate change science]] |
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* [[Volcanic winter]] |
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== References == |
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{{Reflist|2}} |
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* {{cite web | title=The Climate Record: The Last Several Centuries and Last Several Decades. Is the Climate Stable? | work=ENVI2150 Climate Change: Scientific Issues |author= Carslaw, K. S. | url=http://www.env.leeds.ac.uk/envi2150/oldnotes/lecture7/lecture7.html | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }} |
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* {{cite web | title=History of Continental Drift - Before Wegener|author= unknown | url=http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/PH_061_History_a.htm | accessdate=November 17, 2005 }} |
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* http://tvnews.vanderbilt.edu/program.pl?ID=52903 Vanderbilt Television News Archive |
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== External links == |
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* [http://www.businessandmedia.org/specialreports/2006/fireandice/fireandice.asp Details historical presentation of Global Cooling in the popular media] |
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* [http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/ Discussion and quotes from various papers about the "1970s prediction of an imminent ice age"] |
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* [http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope13/foreword.html SCOPE 13 - The Global Carbon Cycle], [[Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment|SCOPE]], 1976. |
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* [http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope27/preface.html SCOPE 27 - Climate Impact Assessment], 1984. |
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* {{cite news |title=Another Ice Age? |url=http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,944914,00.html |publisher=TIME |date=1974-06-24}} |
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* {{cite journal |author=Chambers FM, Brain SA |title=Paradigm shifts in late-Holocene climatology? |journal=The Holocene |volume=12 |issue=2 |pages=239–249 |year=2002 |doi=10.1191/0959683602hl540fa |url=http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/12/2/239}} |
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* http://www.saveportland.com/Climate/index.html - some newspaper scans |
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* http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf - CIA report from 1974 |
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{{Global warming}} |
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{{DEFAULTSORT:Global Cooling}} |
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[[Category:Climate change]] |
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[[de:Globale Abkühlung]] |
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[[es:Enfriamiento global]] |
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[[it:Raffreddamento globale]] |
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[[lt:Visuotinis atšalimas]] |
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[[ja:地球寒冷化]] |
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[[pt:Esfriamento global]] |
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[[ru:Глобальное похолодание]] |
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[[sk:Globálne ochladzovanie]] |
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[[fi:Ilmaston viileneminen]] |
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[[sv:Global uppvärmning#Terminologi]] |
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[[yi:גלאבאלע אפקילונג]] |
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[[zh:全球寒冷化]] |
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Revision as of 20:24, 15 September 2010
In Climatology, Global cooling is the term used to indicate, in reference to the Earth's climatic history, the times of decrease in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans, due to natural causes (solar cycles, Earth's movements, variations in atmospheric gases ,...). Very often the term is inappropriately used as a synonym for Global colding. The two expressions are both part of climate change's topic which itself includes the stages of global heating, glaciations, and changes in precipitation regimes.