English: Application of surprisal in bits (the log of reciprocal probability p, as in #choices = 2#bits = 1/p) to assess wide-ranging risks with help from a handful of coins. In thermal physics, entropy (average surprisal) is often measured in Joule/Kelvin instead, where 1 [J/K] ≈ 1.04×1023 [bits].
Do you feel lucky enough to throw 24 coins and count on ALL of them landing heads up? That's what some mean by a small chance. Do you feel lucky enough to throw all 24 and count on NOT ALL of them landing heads up? That's what we call a good bet. The number of coins also serves as a logarithmic measure for quantitatively assessing risks that lie in between.
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