Draft:2026 Arizona Senate election
 | |||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||
All 30 seats of the Arizona Senate 16 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||||
 Results: Republican gain Republican hold Democratic hold | |||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||
| Elections in Arizona |
|---|
 |
The 2026 Arizona Senate election will be held on November 3, 2026. Voters will elect members of the Arizona Senate in all 30 of the state's legislative districts to serve a two-year term. Primary elections will be held on TBD, 2026.
The Republican Party holds a narrow majority over the Democratic Party, controlling 17 seats to the latter's 13 seats.
Background
[edit]Partisan Background
[edit]In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each won 15 of Arizona's 30 Legislative Districts. Senate District 13, centered around the city of Chandler, which Biden won by 3% in 2020, is the only district Biden won in 2020 which is currently held by a Republican going into the 2024 Arizona Senate Election.
| Biden 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | Trump 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% |
Background
[edit]Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, Arizona was considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state and is seen as a purple state. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[1] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[2]
The Arizona Democratic Party has not won outright control of either state legislative chamber since the 1990s. The last time the party won control of both chambers was in the 1960s.[3] Since then, the state's trend towards Democrats and a consolidated effort on flipping control of the legislature has made this election seen as a tossup with both parties having an equal chance to win control of one or both chambers.
Campaign
[edit]This election is expected to be one of the most competitive state legislative races in the 2024 election cycle. Most ratings suggest the race to be a toss-up or having Democrats as the slight favorite to win the chamber. Additionally, the state Democratic Party's fundraising advantage is also expected to play a major role in which party wins control of the chamber.[3] If Democrats win both chambers, it will be the first time that Democrats have had a trifecta in the state since 1966.[4]
Predictions
[edit]Statewide
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| 270toWin | ||
| CNalysis | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball |
Competitive districts
[edit]| District | Incumbent | Last Result | CNalysis |
|---|
Overview
[edit]
| ||||||||||||
| Party | Candidates | Votes | Seats | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | % | Before | After | +/– | ||||||||
| Republican | ||||||||||||
| Democratic | ||||||||||||
| Green | ||||||||||||
| Independent | ||||||||||||
| Total | ||||||||||||
Retiring incumbents
[edit]Republicans
[edit]- District 13: J.D. Mesnard is term-limited.
- District 19: David Gowan is term-limited
Democrats
[edit]- District 5: Lela Alston is term-limited.
- District 20: Sally Ann Gonzales is term-limited.
Summary of results by district
[edit]† - Incumbent not seeking re-election
| District | 2020 Pres.[5] | Incumbent | Party | Elected Senator | Outcome | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | R +28.6 | Mark Finchem | Rep | ||||
| 2nd | R +2.1 | Shawnna Bolick | Rep | ||||
| 3rd | R +21.5 | John Kavanagh | Rep | ||||
| 4th | D +0.9 | Carine Werner | Rep | ||||
| 5th | D +39.8 | Lela Alston† | Dem | ||||
| 6th | D +33.1 | Theresa Hatathlie | Dem | ||||
| 7th | R +25.3 | Wendy Rogers | Rep | ||||
| 8th | D +28.8 | Lauren Kuby | Dem | ||||
| 9th | D +5.8 | Eva Burch | Dem | ||||
| 10th | R +20.4 | Dave Farnsworth | Rep | ||||
| 11th | D +51.7 | Catherine Miranda | Dem | ||||
| 12th | D +18.6 | Mitzi Epstein | Dem | ||||
| 13th | D +2.9 | J. D. Mesnard† | Rep | ||||
| 14th | R +15.1 | Warren Petersen | Rep | ||||
| 15th | R +27.2 | Jake Hoffman | Rep | ||||
| 16th | R +3.9 | T. J. Shope | Rep | ||||
| 17th | R +4.3 | Vince Leach | Rep | ||||
| 18th | D +24.0 | Priya Sundareshan | Dem | ||||
| 19th | R +21.8 | David Gowan† | Rep | ||||
| 20th | D +50.6 | Sally Ann Gonzales† | Dem | ||||
| 21st | D +28.5 | Rosanna Gabaldón | Dem | ||||
| 22nd | D +34.8 | Eva Diaz | Dem | ||||
| 23rd | D +13.5 | Brian Fernandez | Dem | ||||
| 24th | D +32.0 | Analise Ortiz | Dem | ||||
| 25th | R +24.1 | Tim Dunn | Rep | ||||
| 26th | D +38.9 | Flavio Bravo | Dem | ||||
| 27th | R +7.8 | Kevin Payne | Rep | ||||
| 28th | R +23.4 | Frank Carroll | Rep | ||||
| 29th | R +12.4 | Janae Shamp | Rep | ||||
| 30th | R +50.7 | Hildy Angius | Rep | ||||
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Arizona".
- ^ "Arizona certifies President-elect Biden's victory over President Trump". WBAL. November 30, 2020.
- ^ a b "Arizona could become the blueprint for Democrats looking to build state power". Politico. August 5, 2024.
- ^ "Arizona state elections 2024: Legislative majority at risk for Republicans". Politico. May 28, 2024.
- ^ "Dave's Redistricting". Retrieved 2024-07-16.
56th Legislature (2023-present)
| |
| |
Category:Arizona Senate elections]] Category:2026 Arizona elections|Senate]] Category:2026 state legislature elections in the United States|Arizona Senate]]