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Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index

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The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index (CMEHI) is an index which describes the potential for damage from an Atlantic hurricane in the United States. The CMEHI is used as the basis for trading hurricane futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).[1] It is very similar to the Hurricane Severity Index, which also factors both size and intensity of a hurricane.[2]

Index calculation

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The CMEHI takes as input two variables: the maximum sustained wind speed of a hurricane in miles per hour and the radius to hurricane-force winds of a hurricane in miles (i.e. how far from the center of the hurricane winds of 74 mph or greater are experienced). If the maximum sustained wind speed is denoted by V and the radius to hurricane-force winds is denoted by R then the CMEHI is calculated as follows:

where the subscript 0 denotes reference values. For use on the CME, the reference values of 74 mph and 60 miles are used for the maximum sustained wind speed and radius of hurricane-force winds respectively.

Index history and data

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The development of the CMEHI was based on work published by Lakshmi Kantha at the Department of Aerospace Studies at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colorado. Kantha's paper[3] in Eos developed a number of indices based on various characteristics of hurricanes. The ReAdvisory team at the reinsurance broker RK Carvill[4] used the basics of the Kantha paper to develop an index which became the Carvill Hurricane Index (CHI). In 2009, the scale was renamed the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index (CMEHI).[5]

The data for the CMEHI comes from the public advisories issued for named storms by the National Hurricane Center. Specifically, to determine the maximum sustained wind speed, the following verbiage is looked for:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR XX MPH

To determine the radius to hurricane-force winds, the following phrase is looked for:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO XX MILES

For example, Advisory 23A[6] for Hurricane Katrina at 1pm Central daylight time on Sunday, August 28, 2005, gave the maximum sustained wind speed of 175 mph and the radius of hurricane-force winds of 105 miles resulting in a CMEHI value of 27.9.

Data

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Public advisories from the National Hurricane Center are archived back to 1998. The table below lists the CMEHI values for all the landfalling hurricanes since 1998 based on the NHC Public Advisories, and uses alternate sources for hurricanes between 1989 and 1998.

CMEHI indices of historical storms (1989 – present)
Name Year Landfall NHC advisory number Windspeed at/near landfall (operational) Radius of hurricane–force winds at/near landfall CMEHI index Ref(s)
 1  Jerry 1989 Texas N/A 85 mph (140 km/h) 25 mi (40 km) 2.3 [7]
 4  Hugo 1989 U.S. Virgin Islands N/A 140 mph (220 km/h) 85 mi (135 km) 14.4 [8]
 3  Hugo 1989 Puerto Rico N/A 125 mph (205 km/h) 85 mi (135 km) 10.9 [8]
 4  Hugo 1989 South Carolina N/A 140 mph (220 km/h) 140 mi (225 km) 19.3 [9]
 4  Andrew 1992 Florida N/A 145 mph (230 km/h) 25 mi (40 km) 9.9 [10]
 1  Erin 1995 Florida N/A 85 mph (140 km/h) 35 mi (55 km) 2.7 [11]
 2  Marilyn 1995 U.S. Virgin Islands N/A 110 mph (175 km/h) 30 mi (50 km) 4.9 [12]
 3  Opal 1995 Florida N/A 115 mph (185 km/h) 60 mi (95 km) 7.4 [13]
 2  Bertha 1996 North Carolina N/A 105 mph (165 km/h) 115 mi (185 km) 8.6 [14]
 3  Fran 1996 North Carolina 44 115 mph (185 km/h) 175 mi (280 km) 14.3 [15]
 1  Hortense 1996 Puerto Rico N/A 80 mph (130 km/h) 60 mi (95 km) 3.0 [16]
 1  Danny 1997 Louisiana N/A 75 mph (120 km/h) 20 mi (30 km) 1.5 [17]
 2  Bonnie 1998 North Carolina 33 100 mph (155 km/h) 115 mi (185 km) 7.7 [18]
 1  Earl 1998 Florida 11A 80 mph (130 km/h) 115 mi (185 km) 4.6 [19]
 3  Georges 1998 Puerto Rico 26B 115 mph (185 km/h) 85 mi (135 km) 8.9 [20]
 2  Georges 1998 Mississippi 52 105 mph (165 km/h) 45 mi (70 km) 5.1 [21]
 3  Bret 1999 Texas 17A 125 mph (205 km/h) 40 mi (65 km) 7.7 [22]
 2  Floyd 1999 North Carolina 34A 110 mph (175 km/h) 115 mi (185 km) 9.6 [23]
 1  Irene 1999 Florida 10 75 mph (120 km/h) 45 mi (70 km) 2.1 [24]
 1  Lili 2002 Louisiana 49 90 mph (150 km/h) 70 mi (115 km) 4.4 [25]
 1  Claudette 2003 Texas 28A 80 mph (130 km/h) 30 mi (50 km) 2.1 [26]
 2  Isabel 2003 North Carolina 49A 100 mph (155 km/h) 115 mi (185 km) 7.7 [27]
 4  Charley 2004 Florida 18 145 mph (230 km/h) 30 mi (50 km) 10.4 [28]
 2  Frances 2004 Florida 44A 105 mph (165 km/h) 75 mi (120 km) 6.6 [29]
 4  Ivan 2004 Alabama 55B 130 mph (215 km/h) 105 mi (170 km) 13.5 [30]
 3  Jeanne 2004 Florida 49B 115 mph (185 km/h) 70 mi (115 km) 8.0 [31]
 3  Dennis 2005 Florida 25B 120 mph (195 km/h) 40 mi (65 km) 6.9 [32]
 1  Katrina 2005 Florida 9 75 mph (120 km/h) 15 mi (25 km) 1.4 [33]
 4  Katrina 2005 Louisiana 26A 145 mph (230 km/h) 120 mi (195 km) 19.0 [34]
 3  Rita 2005 Texas 26B 120 mph (195 km/h) 85 mi (135 km) 9.9 [35]
 3  Wilma 2005 Florida 36 125 mph (205 km/h) 90 mi (145 km) 11.2 [36]
 1  Humberto 2007 Texas 4 80 mph (130 km/h) 15 mi (25 km) 1.7 [37]
 2  Dolly 2008 Texas 13A 100 mph (155 km/h) 25 mi (40 km) 3.6 [38]
 2  Gustav 2008 Louisiana 31B 110 mph (175 km/h) 70 mi (115 km) 7.2 [39]
 2  Ike 2008 Texas 48B 110 mph (175 km/h) 120 mi (195 km) 9.9 [40]
 1  Irene 2011 Puerto Rico 7 75 mph (120 km/h) 15 mi (25 km) 1.4 [41]
 1  Irene 2011 North Carolina 28A 85 mph (140 km/h) 90 mi (145 km) 4.5 [42]
 1  Isaac 2012 Louisiana 33 80 mph (130 km/h) 60 mi (95 km) 3.0 [43]
 2  Arthur 2014 North Carolina 13 100 mph (155 km/h) 40 mi (65 km) 4.3 [44]
 1  Hermine 2016 Florida 19A 80 mph (130 km/h) 45 mi (70 km) 2.6 [45]
 1  Matthew 2016 South Carolina 42 75 mph (120 km/h) 25 mi (40 km) 1.6 [46]
 4  Harvey 2017 Texas 23 130 mph (215 km/h) 40 mi (65 km) 8.5 [47]
 4  Irma 2017 Florida 45A 130 mph (215 km/h) 80 mi (130 km) 11.6 [48]
 4  Maria 2017 Puerto Rico 17 155 mph (250 km/h) 60 mi (95 km) 15.8 [49]
 1  Nate 2017 Louisiana 14A 85 mph (140 km/h) 40 mi (65 km) 2.8 [50]
 1  Florence 2018 North Carolina 61 80 mph (130 km/h) 70 mi (115 km) 3.3 [51]
 4  Michael 2018 Florida 16A 155 mph (250 km/h) 45 mi (70 km) 14.1 [52]
 1  Barry 2019 Louisiana 13 75 mph (120 km/h) 45 mi (70 km) 2.1 [53]
 1  Dorian 2019 North Carolina 52A 90 mph (150 km/h) 45 mi (70 km) 3.5 [54]
 1  Hanna 2020 Texas 12 90 mph (150 km/h) 30 mi (50 km) 2.9 [55]
 1  Isaias 2020 North Carolina 28 85 mph (140 km/h) 25 mi (40 km) 2.3 [56]
 4  Laura 2020 Louisiana 29A 150 mph (240 km/h) 60 mi (95 km) 14.5 [57]
 2  Sally 2020 Alabama 21 105 mph (165 km/h) 40 mi (65 km) 4.9 [58]
 2  Delta 2020 Louisiana Update 100 mph (155 km/h) 40 mi (65 km) 4.3 [59]
 2  Zeta 2020 Louisiana 17 110 mph (175 km/h) 35 mi (55 km) 5.2 [60]
 4  Ida 2021 Louisiana 14 150 mph (240 km/h) 50 mi (80 km) 13.5 [61]
 1  Nicholas 2021 Texas 8A 75 mph (120 km/h) 25 mi (40 km) 1.6 [62]
 1  Fiona 2022 Puerto Rico 17A 85 mph (140 km/h) 30 mi (50 km) 2.5 [63]
 4  Ian 2022 Florida 24A 155 mph (250 km/h) 45 mi (70 km) 14.1 [64]
 1  Ian 2022 South Carolina 33 85 mph (140 km/h) 70 mi (115 km) 3.8 [65]
 4  Idalia 2023 Florida 15 130 mph (215 km/h) 25 mi (40 km) 7.4 [66]
 1  Beryl 2024 Texas 39 80 mph (130 km/h) 45 mi (70 km) 2.6 [67]
 1  Debby 2024 Florida 12 80 mph (130 km/h) 25 mi (40 km) 2.0 [68]
 2  Francine 2024 Louisiana 13 100 mph (155 km/h) 40 mi (65 km) 4.3 [69]
 4  Helene 2024 Florida 15 140 mph (220 km/h) 60 mi (95 km) 12.1 [70]

Prior to 1998, the data becomes sparse. However, using data from the HURSAT[71] database at NOAA it is possible to construct a set of CMEHI values for storms back to 1983.

Modeled data is available from a number of sources:

Notes

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  1. ^ "CME Hurricane Index Futures and Options" (PDF). CME Group. Retrieved 3 October 2022.
  2. ^ Chris Hebert (ImpactWeather Inc.), B. Weinzapfel, and M. Chambers (1 May 2008). "The Hurricane Severity Index – A destructive potential rating system for tropical cyclones". 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. American Meteorological Society. Archived from the original on 14 March 2009. Retrieved 2022-10-02.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  3. ^ L. Kantha, "Time to Replace the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale?", Eos, Vol. 87, No. 1, 3 January 2006
  4. ^ RK Carvill website
  5. ^ "CME Group Acquires & Renames Hurricane Index; Selects New Calculation Agent - CME Investor Relations". investor.cmegroup.com. Retrieved 2017-10-09.
  6. ^ Katrina Advisory 23A
  7. ^ Fahlgren, Susan. "URGENT Hurricane Jerry Hits Texas Coast; At Least Two Dead". The Associated Press. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  8. ^ a b Pietri, Nilsa. "Hurricane Hugo aimed its 140-mph winds Sunday at Puerto..." UPI Archives. Retrieved 3 October 2022.
  9. ^ Parker, Laura; Booth, William. "Hurricane Hugo Rips Through South Carolina". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  10. ^ Tester, Hank (30 September 2022). "How did Hurricane Ian compare to Hurricane Andrew?". CBS News Miami. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  11. ^ Booth, William. "WEAK BUT WET HURRICANE ERIN STRIKES CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  12. ^ Hierso, Daniel. "Hurricane Marilyn Clobbers Martinique, Dominica, Pushes Westward". The Associated Press. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  13. ^ Smothers, Ronald (6 October 1995). "Deadly Hurricane Opal Loses Power as It Races North". The New York Times. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  14. ^ Bornemeier, James; Clary, Mike. "Bertha Hits N.C. Outer Banks, Kicks Up Wave of Evacuees". LA Times. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  15. ^ Dempsey, Dave. "Hurricane Fran Advisory Number 44". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  16. ^ Faul, Michelle (11 September 1996). "HORTENSE HITS ISLAND, AIMS AT U.S." News & Record. The Associated Press. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  17. ^ Rappaport, Edward (1999). "Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1997". Monthly Weather Review. 127 (9). American Meteorological Society: 2012–2026. Bibcode:1999MWRv..127.2012R. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<2012:AHSO>2.0.CO;2.
  18. ^ Pasch, Richard. "Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 33". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  19. ^ Avila, Lixion. "Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  20. ^ Guiney, John L. "Hurricane Georges Intermediate Advisory Number 26B". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  21. ^ Avila, Lixion. "Hurricane Georges Advisory Number 52". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  22. ^ Guiney, John L. "Hurricane Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 17A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  23. ^ Guiney, John L. "Hurricane Floyd Intermediate Advisory Number 34A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  24. ^ Franklin, James. "Hurricane Irene Advisory Number 10". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  25. ^ Avila, Lixion. "Hurricane Lili Advisory Number 49". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  26. ^ Beven, Jack. "Hurricane Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 28A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  27. ^ Franklin, James. "Hurricane Isabel Intermediate Advisory Number 49A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  28. ^ Lawrence, Miles B. "Hurricane Charley Special Advisory Number 18...Corrected". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  29. ^ Lawrence, Miles B. "Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 44A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  30. ^ Lixion, Avila. "Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 55B". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  31. ^ Pasch, Richard. "Hurricane Jeanne Intermediate Advisory Number 49B". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  32. ^ Franklin, James. "Hurricane Dennis Intermediate Advisory Number 25B". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  33. ^ Stewart, Stacy. "Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 9". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  34. ^ Stewart, Stacy. "Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 26A...Corrected". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  35. ^ Beven, Jack. "Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 26B". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  36. ^ Pasch, Richard. "Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 36". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  37. ^ Mainelli, Michelle; Lixion, Avila. "Hurricane Humberto Special Advisory Number 4". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  38. ^ Avila, Lixion. "Hurricane Dolly Intermediate Advisory Number 13A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  39. ^ Beven, Jack. "Hurricane Gustav Intermediate Advisory Number 31B". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  40. ^ Beven, Jack; Rhome, Jamie. "Hurricane Ike Intermediate Advisory Number 48B". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  41. ^ Stewart, Stacy. "Hurricane Irene Advisory Number 7". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  42. ^ Brown, Daniel. "Hurricane Irene Intermediate Advisory Number 28A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  43. ^ Pasch, Richard; Roberts, Dave. "Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 33". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  44. ^ Beven, Jack. "Hurricane Arthur Advisory Number 13". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  45. ^ Avila, Lixion; Stewart, Stacy. "Hurricane Hermine Intermediate Advisory Number 19A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  46. ^ Avila, Lixion. "Hurricane Matthew Advisory Number 42". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  47. ^ Beven, Jack. "Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 23". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  48. ^ Pasch, Richard. "Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 45A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  49. ^ Pasch, Richard. "Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 17". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  50. ^ Berg, Robbie. "Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 14A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  51. ^ Stewart, Stacy. "Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 61". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  52. ^ Brown, Daniel. "Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A...Corrected". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  53. ^ Beven, Jack. "Hurricane Barry Advisory Number 13". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  54. ^ Beven, Jack. "Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 52A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  55. ^ Stewart, Stacy. "Hurricane Hanna Advisory Number 12". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  56. ^ Beven, Jack. "Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 28". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  57. ^ Cangialosi, John; Blake, Eric; Zelinsky, David. "Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 29A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  58. ^ Stewart, Stacy. "Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 21". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  59. ^ Brown, Daniel. "Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  60. ^ Pasch, Richard. "Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 17". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  61. ^ Brown, Daniel. "Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 14". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 September 2022.
  62. ^ Blake, Eric. "Hurricane Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 8A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 September 2022.
  63. ^ Pasch, Richard. "Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 17A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 September 2022.
  64. ^ Blake, Eric. "Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 September 2022.
  65. ^ Blake, Eric. "Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 September 2022.
  66. ^ Blake, Eric. "Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 15...Corrected". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 30 August 2023.
  67. ^ Beven, Jack. "Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 39". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 13 September 2024.
  68. ^ Cangialosi, John. "Hurricane Debby Advisory Number 12". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 13 September 2024.
  69. ^ Beven, Jack. "Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 13". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 13 September 2024.
  70. ^ Pasch, Richard. "Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 15". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 28 September 2024.
  71. ^ Hurricane Satellite
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