An Appeal to Reason

An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming

First edition cover
Author	Nigel Lawson
Original title	An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming
Language	English
Genre	Non-fiction
Publisher	Overlook Duckworth (UK) The Overlook Press (US)
Publication date	2008-04-10 (UK) 2008-05-29 (US)
Publication place	United Kingdom/US
Media type	Print (Hardcover)
Pages	149
ISBN	[[Special:BookSources/ISBN+9781590200841+%28US%29%3Cbr%2F%3E+ISBN+9780715637869+%28UK%29 |ISBN 9781590200841 (US) ISBN 9780715637869 (UK)]]

An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming is a 2008 book by Nigel Lawson. In it, Lawson argues that global warming is happening, but that the science is far from settled. He opposes the scientific consensus as summarized by the IPCC, arguing that warming will bring both benefits and negative consequences, and that the impact of these changes will be relatively moderate rather than apocalyptic. He criticizes politicians and scientists who predict catastrophe unless urgent action is taken, and he calls for gradual adaptation instead. The book has been criticized by some climatologists, including IPCC authors Jean Palutikof and Robert Watson.

Overview

This book is an expansion on Lawson’s 2006 lecture to the Centre for Policy Studies, called "The Economics and Politics of Climate Change. An Appeal to Reason" As explained in the introduction, the aim of the book is to examine each of the dimensions of the global warming issue, including the science, the economics, both from the perspective of long-term forecasting and cost-effectiveness analysis, the politics, and the ethical aspect. The book begins by arguing that "the science of global warming is far from settled." Although Lawson accepts that warming is real, he questions the validity of global climate models. Specifically, he highlights the lack of falsifiability of their predictions and the fact that all models failed to predict that there has been no further warming between 2001 and 2007. He also questions if indeed the sole cause of the warming is man-made CO₂ and how great that contribution is. Lawson raises several issues regarding the IPCC process and its findings, including the Hockey stick controversy, and criticizes the Stern Report. After the introduction, the remainder of the book proceeds under the assumption that the IPCC majority view is correct.

Lawson then examines how much warming will occur and what are the practical consequences over the next hundred years, based on the 2007 IPCC Report (AR4) scenarios and policy recommendations. The next issue analyzed is the importance of adaptation, what he claims is the IPPC’s most serious flaw regarding the impact of global warming, as there is a "systematic underestimation of the benefits of adaptation" and "the most cost-effective way of addressing the likely consequences" as opposed to reducing CO₂ emissions. His next criticism regards the Stern Review, which he claims is "at the extreme end of the alarmist camp". He also critiques the Kyoto Protocol and the practical difficulties of reaching a global agreement. Next, he presents an analysis of the different technologies and market alternatives being implemented and available to reduce emissions, concluding with his proposal of a carbon tax across the board, together with the reduction of other taxes to compensate for the extra revenues. The book closes with a discussion about the discount rates used by the IPCC and the Stern Review in their economic analysis, with a more detailed discussion on the latter. The final chapter summarizes the book, ending with a warning about the dangers of the environmental movement, calling it "the new religion of eco-fundamentalism" and claiming that "we appear to have entered a new age of unreason."

As of September 27, 2008, the British Amazon store ranks "An Appeal to Reason" overall sales as 1,177, and as 1st in Science & Nature books, in all three of the following categories: Environmental Philosophy, Earth Science and Geography, and Ecology, and the American Amazon store ranks the book sales as 35,098 overall, and 10th in the Climate Change category within Science, books.

Book Reviews

On the British Literary Review, Allister Heath book review said:

Whether or not readers are convinced by Lawson's arguments - regrettably, I suspect most true believers will dismiss his arguments out of hand - we owe Mayer a debt of gratitude for this essential contribution to the debate...
This is a fascinating tome, the best exposition of the sceptical view on global warming that I have yet to come across. It is comprehensive, packed with useful and clearly referenced facts and refreshingly free of the fanatical tone that plagues so many works on the subject. If Lawson is eventually proved right, this book will be remembered as a milestone; if, instead, he turns out to have been completely wrong, at least Lawson had the courage of his convictions, an increasingly rare virtue in today's excessively consensual age.

— Literary Review,

On The Guardian, Richard Lambert book review said:

Climate change is a highly complex global problem, and one plagued by major uncertainties… So it is important to keep testing the consensus view that has emerged in the past few years…
To this extent, Nigel Lawson's short book is to be welcomed. Along with the polemics, he makes some sensible points. For example, he is right to raise the alarm about the impact of biofuels on food prices, and about the huge costs and inefficiencies of imposing arbitrary targets for the production of renewable energy. He is right to warn about the dangers of trade protectionism that could result from imposing trade barriers against countries that do not cut their greenhouse gas emissions. And he is right to scoff at those who claim that unusual weather conditions in recent years represent clear evidence that disaster is on the way.
But when it comes to the big picture, he is very likely to be wrong… Never one to suffer from an excess of humility, he is happy to attack the scientific might of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a "global quasi-monopoly" whose judgment and integrity he finds open to question. But he reserves his special contempt for the Stern review…
Of course Stern's conclusions are open to challenge. In particular, respectable economists have argued that his method of calculation understates the economic costs and overstates the benefits of early action to avert global warming. But it is ridiculous to suggest, as Lawson does, that the Stern review has played the same role as Tony Blair's notorious "dodgy dossier".

— The Guardian,

Also on The Guardian, Robin McKie book review said:

According to Nigel Lawson, the science community has been so successful in stifling debate about global warming that he could hardly find a publisher to print this book. If only… This claim, like many others he makes, is suspect.
Although it claims to demolish the cause of global warming, it simply piles up scientific howlers…
In fact, the opening chapter, which purports to demolish the scientific case for manmade global warming, contains a misrepresentation of the facts on almost every page though I am sure Lawson is not trying to mislead. He thinks he is right, but cannot control his zeal. The result is cherry-picked, distorted data.
What really grates is Lawson's conviction that most of the world's climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric physicists, Arctic experts, and biologists, as well several Nobel Prize winners, are all stupid, misguided and wrong in thinking manmade global warming is real...
It is breathtaking arrogance, to say the least, although Lawson is not alone in displaying it… These Grumpy Old Deniers feel their lifestyles are threatened by greenies and so reject the entire concept of global warming. 'With the collapse of Marxism, those who dislike capitalism have been obliged to find a new creed,' says Lawson. 'For many of them, green is the new red.' In short, global warming is a commie plot.

— The Guardian,

On The Spectator, Graham Steward book review said:

When there is so much data suggesting the world’s climate is heating up, some may find it presumptuous of Nigel Lawson, who is not a scientist and has undertaken no original research, to hope to challenge the prevailing orthodoxy. Would we take seriously an appraisal of his time as Chancellor of Exchequer written by someone whose only expertise was in oceanography?.. For some, this will be reason enough to rubbish his new book on global warming.
In truth, pugilists on both side of the argument need to recognise that while expertise is always paramount, it is not out of place for other leading public figures to pose intelligent questions. After all, scientists and activists are demanding a political, not an academic, response to their findings. In this short and tightly argued book, Nigel Lawson successfully unravels some of the lazy assumptions upon which the current debate has been framed.
Of course, for many there are no two sides of the argument. Not only is global warming established, its man-made cause is proven and unless we radically reverse carbon emission growth, we are all doomed. Lawson is not an outright denier of either the first or second of these propositions, although he does throw in some qualifications to the sweeping generalisations that are often made in establishing cause and effect. It is on the subject of how we respond to the climate challenge that his book really deserves attention.

— The Spectator,

On The Daily Telegraph, Alasdair Palmer, book review said:

Nigel Lawson's An Appeal to Reason examines whether or not drastic action is required to prevent apocalypse. Although he is clearly sceptical about the ability of anyone to predict accurately what will happen to the world's climate, never mind the world's economy, over the next century, his strongest arguments do not depend on that scepticism.
…An Appeal to Reason is an exceptionally clear and well-written book. I am not sure, however, that I would be quite as confident as Lawson is that everything is going to work out happily.
Consider, for example, Peru, a country where global warming is likely to have a significant impact soon. Nearly 70 per cent of Peru's population lives on its arid coastal region. That region is dependent on the annual meltwater from the glaciers in the Andes to provide all of its water during the summer, when there is no rain.
But thanks to global warming, those glaciers are fast disappearing: and they may be gone altogether within 20 years. Then where do 18 million-plus Peruvians get their fresh water?

— The Daily Telegraph,

On the Daily Mail, Michael Meacher, former UK Environment Minister said:

Once an idea has become the conventional wisdom, even if it is broadly right, intellectual sloppiness can easily slip in. Nigel Lawson has provided a valuable antidote to the sloppiness surrounding climate change. This short book forces a rethink not only of some of the more alarmist predictions of global warming theory, but also of the fundamental underpinnings of the theory itself. …
The former Chancellor is right, too, to mock some of the solutions that have been all too readily peddled. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme, so favoured by the marketers, has turned out to be a gigantic scam, allowing businesses to invent a host of devices to cream off billions of pounds by making imaginary carbon reductions.
The current stampede into biofuels is hugely counter-productive both because it leads to the destruction of rain-forests and because it takes up land that would otherwise be used for food crops, thus forcing up world food prices
But he wants to go further than tilting his lance at the sillier eccentricities of what he sees as the climate-change establishment. He wants to demolish the entire infrastructure of climate-change theory…Here his arguments are badly flawed.

— Daily Mail,

External links

• Lecture on the Economics and Politics of Climate Change - An Appeal to Reason
• The Official Homepage of Nigel Lawson's An Appeal To Reason