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2023 Slovak parliamentary election

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2023 Slovak parliamentary election
← 2020 30 September 2023 (2023-09-30) Next →
All 150 seats in the National Council
76 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout68.4% (Increase 2.6pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Robert Fico Michal Šimečka Peter Pellegrini
Party Smer PS Hlas
Last election 38 seats, 18.3% 0 seats, 7.0% Did not exist
Seats won 42 32 27
Seat change Increase 4 Increase 32 New party
Popular vote 681,017 533,136 436,415
Percentage 23.0% 18.0% 14.7%
Swing Increase 4.7 pp Increase 11.0 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Igor Matovič Milan Majerský Richard Sulík
Party OĽaNO and Friends KDH SaS
Last election 65 seats, 30.8%[a] 0 seats, 4.7% 13 seats, 6.2%
Seats won 16 12 11
Seat change Decrease 49 Increase 12 Decrease 2
Popular vote 264,137 202,515 187,645
Percentage 8.9% 6.8% 6.3%
Swing Decrease 21.9 pp Increase 2.1 pp Increase 0.1 pp
  Seventh party
 
Leader Andrej Danko
Party SNS
Last election 0 seats, 3.2%
Seats won 10
Seat change Increase 10
Popular vote 166,995
Percentage 5.6%
Swing Increase 2.4 pp
Results of the election, showing vote strength by district
Prime Minister before election

Ľudovít Ódor (acting)
Independent

Elected Prime Minister

Robert Fico
Smer-SD

Early parliamentary elections were held in Slovakia on 30 September 2023 to elect members of the National Council. Regular elections were scheduled to be held in 2024. However, on 15 December 2022 the government lost a no-confidence vote.[1] Subsequently, the National Council amended the Constitution so that an early election could be held on 30 September 2023.[2] This was the first snap election in the country since 2012.

The left-wing populist and social conservative, Direction – Social Democracy (Smer-SD), led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico, emerged as the largest party, winning 42 seats. The social-liberal and pro-European, Progressive Slovakia (PS) came in second, with 32 seats. Former Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini's social-democratic, Voice – Social Democracy (Hlas-SD), which split from Smer-SD in 2020, came in third with 27 seats, making Pellegrini the presumptive kingmaker in government formation negotiations. The conservative, OĽaNO and its allies won 16 seats, less than a quarter of their total in the 2020 election. The Christian-democratic, Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) and the right-wing populist, Slovak National Party (SNS) re-entered the National Council after failing to achieve the vote threshold in 2020, winning twelve and ten seats respectively. The classical liberal, Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) won eleven seats, tying the 2012 election as their worst result since the party's founding.[3]

As no singule party or alliance reached the 76 seats needed for a majority, a coalition government was needed. Analysts considered a coalition of Smer-SD, Hlas-SD, and the SNS the most likely outcome, as Pellegrini had called his party and Smer-SD "closer" both "politically" and "ideologically" than PS.[needs update][4][5] A new government with Fico as prime minister was sworn in on 25 October 2023.[6]

Background

[edit]

Prior to the previous election, Slovakia experienced a period of political turbulence, triggered by the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová in 2018. The incident led to widespread protests and the resignation of then-Prime Minister Robert Fico.[7]

The election itself was won by the movement of Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OĽaNO) led by Igor Matovič. The party emerged as the victor, gaining over a quarter of the popular vote, which translated to 53 seats in the 150-seat National Council. OĽaNO formed a coalition government with several other parties, ending the long-standing dominance of Direction – Social Democracy (SMER–SD).[8]

Electoral system

[edit]

The 150 members of the National Council were elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency with an electoral threshold of 5% for single parties, 7% for coalitions of two or three parties, and 10% for coalitions of four or more parties. The election used the open list system, with seats allocated using largest remainder method with Hagenbach-Bischoff quota, a variant of the D'Hondt method.[9] Voters were able to cast up to four preferential votes for candidates of the selected party.[10]

All citizens of the Slovak Republic were allowed to vote except for citizens under 18 years of age, felons in prison convicted of serious offenses, and people declared ineligible to perform legal acts by court. Voters abroad on election day were allowed to vote by mail.[11] All citizens, who were 21 years of age or older on the election day and are permanent residents of Slovakia, were allowed to run as candidates except for prisoners, convicted felons, and those declared ineligible to perform legal acts by court.[12] All participating parties must register 90 days before election day and pay a deposit of €17,000 which would be refunded to all parties gaining at least 3% of the votes.

Voters not present in their electoral district at the time of the elections were allowed to request a voting certificate (voličský preukaz), which allowed them to vote in any district regardless of their residency. Voters abroad on election day were allowed to request a postal vote. According to the Central Election Committee, approximately 72,000 citizens of the Slovak Republic living abroad had requested a postal vote for the election. The deadline for requests passed on 9 August 2023.

Composition of the National Council

[edit]
Main article: List of members of the National Council of Slovakia, 2020–2023

At the first parliamentary session on 20 March 2020, 6 parliamentary groups were established: OĽaNO, Smer, We Are Family, ĽSNS, SaS and For the People.

Group/party Ideology Leader Deputies
Elected 2020 Incumbent 2023
OĽaNO and
Friends 		OĽaNO
Ordinary People and Independent Personalities 		Conservatism Igor Matovič
43 / 150
29 / 150
KÚ
Christian Union 		Christian right Anna Záborská
5 / 150
5 / 150
NOVA Conservatism Gábor Grendel
2 / 150
2 / 150
For the People[b] Liberal conservatism Veronika Remišová
12 / 150
1 / 150
Smer
Direction – Social Democracy 		Left-wing nationalism Robert Fico
38 / 150
27 / 150
We Are Family National conservatism Boris Kollár
17 / 150
16 / 150
SaS
Freedom and Solidarity 		Liberalism Richard Sulík
13 / 150
20 / 150
Hlas[c]
Voice – Social Democracy 		Social democracy Peter Pellegrini
11 / 150
ĽSNS[d]
Kotlebists – People's Party Our Slovakia 		Neo-Nazism Marian Kotleba
14 / 150
7 / 150
Republic[e] Far-right politics Milan Uhrík
5 / 150
For the People[f] Liberal conservatism Veronika Remišová
12 / 150
1 / 150
Change from Below[g] Liberal conservatism Ján Budaj
3 / 150
0 / 150
Life[h]
Life – National Party 		Christian right Tomáš Taraba
3 / 150
3 / 150
PS[i]
Progressive Slovakia 		Social liberalism Michal Šimečka
1 / 150
Democrats[j] Liberalism Eduard Heger
16 / 150

Television debates

[edit]
2023 Slovak parliamentary election
Date Broadcasters  P  Present   S  Surrogate   NI  Not invited   A  Absent   I  Invited   N  No debate  
OĽANO Smer–SD SR ĽSNS PS D SaS KDH Aliancia MF SNS Modrí, Híd Hlas–SD REP Piráti PRINCÍP SOS KSS VB SPRAVODLIVOSŤ SHO MySlovensko SRDCE SDKÚ-DS KARMA
3 Sep 2023[13] JOJ 24
(150th candidates) 		P
Matovič 		P
Bekmatov 		P
Klus 		NI A
Kusá 		NI P
Hlina 		P
F. Majerský 		NI NI P
Huliak 		NI A
L. Pellegrini 		P
Mazurek 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
19 Sep 2023[14] Jednotka/RS NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI S
Kaliaš 		S
Smolka 		NI P
Stanovič 		NI NI P
Panenka 		NI NI P
Szaboová
20 Sep 2023[14] TV JOJ/JOJ 24 P
Matovič 		NI P
Kollár 		NI NI NI NI P
Majerský 		NI NI P
Danko 		NI NI P
Uhrík 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
20 Sep 2023[14] Jednotka/RS NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P
Šubová 		NI NI P
Hrdlička 		NI P
Chlebo 		P
Švec 		NI NI P
Rybárik 		NI
21 Sep 2023[14] TV JOJ/JOJ 24 NI P
Fico 		NI NI P
Šimečka 		NI P
Sulík 		NI NI NI NI NI P
Pellegrini 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
21 Sep 2023[14] Jednotka/RS NI NI NI S
Schlosár 		NI NI NI NI NI S
Rajtár 		NI S
Schwarzbacher 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI S
Tokár 		NI NI
22 Sep 2023[14][15] TV Markíza NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI S
Kaliaš 		P
Hanuliak 		NI P
Stanovič 		P
Chlebo 		P
Švec 		NI NI NI P
Szaboová
23 Sep 2023[14][16] TV Markíza NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P
Šubová 		NI NI P
Hrdlička 		NI NI NI P
Panenka 		S
Kováč 		P
Rybárik 		NI
24 Sep 2023[14][17] TV Markíza NI NI NI S
Kotleba 		NI S
Letanovská 		NI NI P
Forró 		P
Šimon 		NI P
Dzurinda 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
25 Sep 2023[14][18] Jednotka/RS P
Jurinová 		NI NI NI NI S
Naď 		NI NI S
Gyimesi 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
25 Sep 2023[14][19] TA3 S
Remišová 		NI S
Krajniak 		NI NI NI NI P
Majerský 		P
Forró 		NI P
Danko 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
25 Sep 2023[14][20] TV Markíza P
Matovič 		A
Fico 		P
Kollár 		NI P
Šimečka 		NI P
Sulík 		P
Majerský 		NI NI P
Danko 		NI S
Tomáš 		P
Uhrík 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
26 Sep 2023[14]
(cancelled)[21] 		TV Markíza N
Matovič 		N
Fico 		NI NI N
Šimečka 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI N
Pellegrini 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
26 Sep 2023[14][22] Jednotka/RS NI NI S
Pčolinský 		NI NI NI S
Gröhling 		S
Hajko 		NI NI P
Danko 		NI NI S
Mazurek 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
26 Sep 2023[14][23] TA3 NI P
Fico 		NI NI P
Šimečka 		NI P
Sulík 		NI NI NI NI NI P
Pellegrini 		P
Uhrík 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI
27 Sep 2023[14] Jednotka/RS NI P
Fico 		NI NI P
Šimečka 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P
Pellegrini 		NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI

Opinion polls

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the 2023 Slovak parliamentary election § Graphical summary.[edit]
A LOESS graph displaying the polls for the 2023 Slovak parliamentary election.

Issues and developments

[edit]

2023 election issues included high inflation, Slovakia's position on the war in Ukraine and the related global energy crisis, COVID-19, internal fights within the previous government, corruption scandals and immigration;[24][25] questions of rights and values (particularly LGBTQ+ issues) were covered during the campaign by Al Jazeera English, BBC[25][26] and Pravda.[27]

By the week of the election, popularity polls indicated that the two strongest parties were the Progressive Slovakia (led by pro-European Michal Šimečka, a member of the European Parliament (EP) since 2019, and EP Vice-President since 2022, who has committed to maintaining support for Ukraine) and Smer-SD (headed by Robert Fico, three-time former prime minister, who has committed to ending Slovakia's support for Ukraine); however, neither appeared to be commanding a majority, and the BBC projected neither would top 20% of the vote,[26] so each would have to attempt to build a coalition with other parties to achieve the majority needed to rule.[24][25][26] Consequently, as many as 10 parties could wind up in the government.[26] The outcome could pose a crisis for NATO, particularly if Fico — to gain a majority and win control of the Slovak government — chooses to ally his party with Republika, an extremist far-right party, which blames NATO and Ukraine for the war.[24][26]

The third-largest party, which could tip the balance in favor of either of the other two, is Hlas–SD (Voice), the moderate-left party of Peter Pellegrini (formerly of Smer-SD, and former prime minister, 2018–20). Though non-committed, he is believed to be closer to Fico.[24][25]

Results

[edit]
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Direction – Social Democracy694,44223.4048+10
Progressive Slovakia518,44517.4735+35
Voice – Social Democracy436,41514.7030New
OĽaNO and Friends205,5036.920–65
Christian Democratic Movement202,1896.8114+14
Freedom and Solidarity187,9116.33130
Republic152,4465.1410New
Slovak National Party144,8544.8800
Alliance130,1834.3900
Democrats119,0284.0100
We Are Family107,3503.620–17
People's Party Our Slovakia22,3110.750–17
Communist Party of Slovakia9,8670.330New
Pirate Party – Slovakia9,3580.320New
Modrí, Most–Híd7,9350.270New
Hungarian Forum3,4860.120New
MySlovensko2,7860.090New
Karma2,4070.080New
Common Citizens of Slovakia2,4010.080New
HEART Patriots and Pensioners – Slovak National Unity2,3150.080New
Princíp1,8170.060New
99% – Civic Voice1,3350.0400
Slovak Revival Movement1,3320.0400
Patriotic Bloc1,2620.040New
Slovak Democratic and Christian Union – Democratic Party7710.030New
Total2,968,149100.001500
Valid votes2,968,14998.83
Invalid/blank votes35,0521.17
Total votes3,003,201100.00
Registered voters/turnout4,388,87268.43
Source: Results (99.98% counted)

Results by region

[edit]
Region Smer–SD PS Hlas–SD OĽaNO
and Friends 		KDH SaS SNS Republic Alliance Democrats We Are
Family 		People's Party
Our Slovakia 		KSS Other parties
Bratislava Region 18.54 31.00 10.36 6.17 4.90 12.50 4.31 3.14 0.91 4.43 1.78 0.57 0.20 1.08
Trnava Region 22.01 17.07 12.11 9.40 4.56 5.36 4.43 4.38 12.69 2.92 2.19 0.81 0.40 1.56
Trenčín Region 29.47 16.63 16.40 5.93 5.44 5.63 7.28 5.45 0.03 2.84 2.22 1.06 0.46 1.03
Nitra Region 25.31 14.42 14.40 7.47 4.06 4.80 4.51 4.46 13.91 2.19 2.01 0.80 0.26 1.24
Žilina Region 25.79 15.51 16.04 6.90 9.38 5.56 8.11 5.61 0.02 2.80 2.02 0.96 0.34 0.89
Banská Bystrica Region 22.89 14.96 19.76 7.41 4.29 5.14 6.53 5.18 5.17 2.40 2.73 1.33 0.43 1.67
Prešov Region 22.04 10.83 16.16 14.78 14.07 4.10 5.73 5.22 0.07 2.65 2.36 0.63 0.31 0.98
Košice Region 21.10 14.68 15.08 13.46 6.80 5.74 4.38 4.97 5.44 2.98 2.75 0.76 0.33 1.41
Foreign 6.10 61.70 2.46 3.81 3.31 10.80 3.79 3.20 0.47 2.50 0.55 0.38 0.04 0.76
Total 22.94 17.96 14.70 8.89 6.82 6.32 5.62 4.75 4.38 2.93 2.21 0.84 0.33 1.16

Aftermath

[edit]

As analysts predicted, Pellegrini's Hlas-SD played the role of kingmaker in the "jockeying" that characterized the election's aftermath.[28] Two viable coalitions emerged: one consisting of Fico's Smer-SD, Hlas-SD, and SNS; the other of Hlas-SD, PS, KDH, and SaS. On 2 October 2023, two days after the election, president Zuzana Čaputová tasked Fico, as the leader of the now-largest parliamentary party, with forming a government within 14 days. On 3 October, she held "informal discussions" with PS's leader Michal Šimečka about the possibility of a PS-led coalition before meeting with Pellegrini and KDH's Milan Majerský. Following this meeting, Pellegrini stated that his party was not ruling out either coalition.

According to SNS leader Andrej Danko, the ensuing negotiations revolved around Pellegrini's future role. Fico allegedly offered Pellegrini the role of Speaker of the National Council, while Šimečka was willing to support Pellegrini for Prime Minister in exchange for PS receiving the Ministry of the Interior.[29] On 10 October, Hlas-SD announced that it had rejected PS's offer.[30][31] On 11 October, Smer-SD, Hlas-SD, and SNS ratified their coalition agreement, according to which they were to receive 6, 7, and 3 ministerial portfolios, respectively.[32][33][34]

On 12 October, the Party of European Socialists (PES) suspended Smer-SD and Hlas-SD over their plans to enter into coalition with SNS, which the PES views as a "radical-right party."[35] One week later, on 19 October, Čaputová announced she would not approve the coalition government's nominee for Minister of Environment, Rudolf Huliak (SNS), due to his avowed climate change denialism. This delayed the swearing-in of the new government.[36][37][38] After the coalition partners replaced Huliak with Tomáš Taraba (SNS) as their nominee for the post, Čaputová accepted the coalition's government. She swore in the new government, with Fico at its helm, on 25 October.[39][6][40]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Aggregate results for Ordinary People and Independent Personalities–NOVA–Christian Union–Change from Below (53 seats, 25.0%) and For the People (12 seats, 5.8%)
  2. ^ In September 2021, For the People parliamentary group dissolved after it fell below the required threshold of 8 deputies.
  3. ^ In June 2020, 11 deputies elected for Smer–SD left its parliamentary group to found Hlas.
  4. ^ In April 2022, ĽSNS parliamentary group dissolved after it fell below the required threshold of 8 deputies.
  5. ^ In January 2021, 5 deputies elected for ĽSNS left its parliamentary group to found Republic.
  6. ^ In September 2021, For the People parliamentary group dissolved after it fell below the required threshold of 8 deputies.
  7. ^ In December 2022, Change from Below terminated its alliance with OĽaNO and its 3 deputies elected on a joint list left OĽaNO parliamentary group.
  8. ^ In May 2020, Život terminated its alliance with ĽSNS and its 3 deputies elected on a joint list left ĽSNS parliamentary group.
  9. ^ In March 2021, a deputy elected for For the People left its parliamentary group to join PS
  10. ^ In February 2021, a deputy elected for For the People left its parliamentary group to join SPOLU. In March 2023 several deputies from the OĽANO group joined the Democrats.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Janiček, Karel (15 December 2022). "Slovak coalition government collapses after losing no-confidence vote in parliament". PBS. Archived from the original on 8 February 2023. Retrieved 28 January 2023.
  2. ^ Kahn, Michael (22 January 2023). Lawson, Hugh (ed.). "Slovakia's former coalition heads agree to early parliamentary elections". Reuters. Archived from the original on 30 September 2023. Retrieved 24 September 2023.
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  4. ^ "Coalition jockeying revs up in Slovakia after Fico win in Saturday's vote". POLITICO. 1 October 2023. Archived from the original on 1 October 2023. Retrieved 1 October 2023. Based on the election results, Smer and Hlas would have 69 seats in Slovakia's 150-seat parliament, short of a majority. The nationalist SNS party, a former partner of Smer in two governments, has 10 seats and would be a natural move to complete a majority coalition.
  5. ^ "Slovakia election: Strongman Robert Fico's return to power". DW. Archived from the original on 1 October 2023. Retrieved 1 October 2023. Talks have not started yet, but the probability that Slovakia will have a Smer-Hlas-SNS government is very high," said Grigorij Meseznikov, head of the Institute for Public Affairs in Bratislava, the nation's capital.
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  16. ^ "Kluby na pestovanie marihuany aj štvordňový pracovný týždeň. TV Markíza priniesla druhú predvolebnú debatu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 23 September 2023. Archived from the original on 25 September 2023. Retrieved 23 September 2023.
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  19. ^ "Superdebata: v ta3 sa stretli zástupcovia strán KDH, SNS, OĽANO a priateľov, Aliancie a Sme rodina". TA3 (in Slovak). 25 September 2023. Archived from the original on 25 September 2023. Retrieved 25 September 2023.
  20. ^ "Sledujte NAŽIVO: Lídri najsilnejších politických strán prezradili, o ktoré ministerstvá by mali po voľbách záujem". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 25 September 2023. Archived from the original on 25 September 2023. Retrieved 25 September 2023.
  21. ^ "Markíza zrušila finálnu debatu pre bojkot Smeru a neúčasť Hlasu a PS, OĽaNO to považuje za "mafiánske praktiky"". Denník N (in Slovak). 22 September 2023. Archived from the original on 22 September 2023. Retrieved 22 September 2023.
  22. ^ "Miesto ideológií v školstve, popieranie holokaustu či zavádzanie bankového odvodu. Aj o tom bola piata predvolebná diskusia RTVS". Radio and Television of Slovakia (in Slovak). 26 September 2023. Archived from the original on 27 September 2023. Retrieved 27 September 2023.
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  31. ^ "Slovakian kingmaker backs Fico coalition, vows foreign policy continuity". Reuters. 10 October 2023. Archived from the original on 11 October 2023. Retrieved 10 October 2023.
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  34. ^ Hovet, Jason (16 October 2023). "Slovakia's populist ex-PM Fico seals coalition deal for new government". Reuters. Retrieved 25 October 2023.
  35. ^ Wax, Eddy; Barigazzi, Jacopo; Jochecová, Ketrin (12 October 2023). "European socialists suspend Robert Fico's Smer party and its ally Hlas". Archived from the original on 12 October 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
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  37. ^ "Slovakia president rejects nomination of opponent of climate change policy as environment minister". AP News. 19 October 2023. Retrieved 25 October 2023.
  38. ^ "Slovakia president sets condition to appoint ex-PM Fico's cabinet". Reuters. 20 October 2023. Retrieved 25 October 2023.
  39. ^ Jochacová, Ketrin (24 October 2023). "Robert Fico to become Slovakia's new prime minister". Politico. Retrieved 25 October 2023.
  40. ^ Henley, Jon (25 October 2023). "Slovakia's new prime minister Robert Fico to attend EU summit". the Guardian. Retrieved 25 October 2023.
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