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2024 Belgian government formation

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Following the 2024 Belgian federal and regional elections, Government formation talks began on 10 June. Incumbent Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has announced his resignation[1] and his party's leader Tom Ongena has declared that Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats would not be a part of the next federal government.

Overview

[edit]
Government Outgoing coalition Next coalition Sworn in (days after election)
Federal Government De Croo Flemish side
  CD&V
  Open Vld
  Vooruit
  Groen
Francophone side
  PS
  MR
  Ecolo
Flemish Government Jambon   N-VA
  CD&V
  Open Vld 		Diependaele   N-VA
  Vooruit
  CD&V 		30 September 2024 (113 days)
French Community Government Jeholet   PS
  Ecolo
  MR 		Degryse   MR
  LE 		16 July 2024 (37 days)
Walloon Government Di Rupo III   PS
  Ecolo
  MR 		Dolimont   MR
  LE 		15 July 2024 (36 days)
Brussels Government Vervoort III Francophone side
  PS
  Ecolo
  DéFI
Flemish side
  Groen
  Open Vld
  one.brussels-Vooruit
German-speaking Community Govt. Paasch II   ProDG
  PFF
  PS 		Paasch III   ProDG
  CSP
  PFF 		1 July 2024 (22 days)[2]

Federal government

[edit]
De Wever in 2014
The flag of Arizona

According to political analysts, the most obvious federal coalition would consist of the right-wing New Flemish Alliance, Reformist Movement, and centre-left Vooruit, with the centrist Christian Democratic and Flemish and Les Engagés parties to reach at least 76 seats. Other coalitions are ruled out, following the decision of Open Vld, Groen and the Socialist Party to be part of the opposition. Vlaams Belang is not expected to be part of the government at any level, due to the cordon sanitaire.[3][4]

On 12 June, after consulting with party presidents, King Philippe named N-VA leader Bart De Wever as informateur.[5] He had to submit a report by 19 June. After said report was submitted, his mission as informateur was extended by another week until 26 June.[6]

On 15 June, Melissa Depraetere,[7] leader of Vooruit, declared that she didn't wish Georges-Louis Bouchez, leader of MR, to be in the future government, citing his "disloyal" attitude towards the De Croo Government and his lack of proficiency in Dutch as factors that would harm a future coalition. She also declared that she desired to push a social design onto a future coalition that she notes is emerging to be on the right, which, in her eyes, will make negotiation very difficult.[8]

On 21 June, Bart De Wever announce that he sees the only logical government formation to be the so-called "Arizona coalition (nl)" (N-VA - MR - LE - Vooruit - CD&V), which combines the respective parties negotiating in Flanders and Wallonia for the respective regional governments. The name derives from the colors of the respective parties all appearing on the flag of that US state. According to De Wever, any other attempt at government formation would lead to a period of endless negotiations. He specifies that the Arizona formation would allow for relative coherence on a socio-economic level, but that it would make any prospect of institutional reform more difficult to negotiate.[9]

On 26 June, De Wever submitted his second report to the King as informateur, subsequently he was relieved of informateur duties and was appointed as preformateur.[10] The choice to appoint a preformateur was analysed by political commentators as confirmation of an incoming Arizona coalition government, but simultaneously an admission that the differences between the parties needed to form government are still too vast for quick and easy negotiations and that a government is not imminent.[11]

On 10 July, the king officially appointed De Wever as formateur, giving him the ability to start formal talks to assemble a government, and likely becoming prime minister of the resulting government. The government was expected to consist of the Arizona coalition, including the N-VA, CD&V, and Vooruit on the Flemish side, and MR and Les Engagés on the Francophone side.[12] His assignment was extended on 24 July and 19 August.[13]

On 22 August, De Wever returned his assignment to the king, having failed to produce a deal agreed by all parties.[14] The next day, the king would assign Les Engagés leader Maxime Prévot as the mediator in the second round of negotiations.[15]

On 1 September, King Philippe again appointed Bart De Wever as the mediator in the coalition negotiations.[16]

On 5 September, De Wever summoned the five Arizona parties for the first time to make working agreements on the further course of the negotiations. It was agreed that the five Arizona parties would not vote on bills that had a budgetary impact after the start of the parliamentary year. It was also decided that the thematic working groups on the various policy themes launched earlier would resume their work from Monday 9 September. The central negotiators met weekly from Friday 13 September to review the progress in the working groups.

On 23 September, De Wever’s assignment as formateur was extended until 17 October.[17] After the local elections on Sunday 13 October, in which the five Arizona parties emerged stronger, the formateur invited the federal chief negotiators on 16 October to determine the working method and agenda for the negotiations on the major sticking points that still needed to be addressed, in particular the substantial savings of 28 billion euros and the socio-economic reforms that had previously failed to negotiate.[18] It was decided that the sherpas, the technical advisors, of the parties would formulate comments on a new socio-economic supernote that the formateur delivered to the five parties on 8 October.[19] A day later, De Wever's assignment as formateur was extended again by the king, this time until Monday 4 November, with the message to conclude the negotiations within a reasonable period of time.

During a new joint meeting of the central negotiators on Thursday 24 October, it was agreed that De Wever would draw up a new supernote, after the various parties had requested a considerable number of adjustments. The intention was that the negotiators would further deal with the remaining sticking points of the other policy themes during the autumn break the following week, but Vooruit announced in a statement later that day that it wanted to wait until the formateur had presented his new supernote with accompanying budgetary tables. According to the party, there was little point in concluding partial agreements on the other themes without a budgetary framework.[20] The other parties regretted Vooruit's move and called for negotiations to be resumed as soon as possible. On Tuesday 29 October, Bart De Wever presented his revised supernote to the party chairmen of Vooruit, MR, CD&V and Les Engagés separately, after which the technicians of the parties considered the note a day later. On 31 October, a joint meeting of the negotiators of the five parties followed to discuss the note. However, no progress was made again: four of the five parties were prepared to continue negotiations on the basis of this note, but Vooruit still found it too unbalanced, particularly with regard to tackling the budget.[21]

In an attempt to straighten things out, De Wever held bilateral consultations with the chairmen of the Arizona parties on Sunday 3 November. The next morning, a joint meeting with the five chairmen followed, before the formateur had to go to the King to report on his assignment. However, this was not enough to break the impasse, after which De Wever offered his resignation as formateur at the Palace. King Philippe, however, kept the resignation under consideration and gave De Wever until 12 November to hold further consultations with the Arizona parties, so that the parties could come closer together again to resume government negotiations.ormatie-regeringsonderhandelingen-vanaf-25-oktober-2/ LIVE Federale formatie - Bart De Wever (N-VA) dient ontslag in als formateur maar koning geeft hem extra tijd voor overleg], VRT NWS, 4 November 2024.</ref>

Possible coalitions

[edit]

Sorted descending by number of total seats:

Coalition Coalition parties Total number of seats Flemish seats Francophone seats Pitfalls
Flemish Francophone
Vivaldi incl. LE   Vooruit +   CD&V +   Open Vld +   Groen   MR +   PS +   LE +   Ecolo
90 / 150
37 / 89
53 / 61
 Extension of the outgoing coalition strengthened by LE. Broad coalition which is a minority on Flemish side. Open Vld and PS both decided to remain in opposition. PS needed for majority.
Arizona excl. PS & Open Vld   N-VA +   Vooruit +   CD&V   MR +   LE
82 / 150
48 / 89
34 / 61
 Vast political differences in opinion between largest (N-VA) and second largest (Vooruit) Flemish parties. Vooruit president Melissa Depraetere has stated that her party may refuse to be part of a government including MR president George-Louis Bouchez, citing issues with his "disloyalty" to the incumbent Vivaldi government.

Other coalitions are also mathematically possible, but in practice unlikely. For instance: both the PS and Open Vld had announced in the beginning of the formation that they preferred to remain in the opposition, while extremist parties on both sides (left: Workers' Party of Belgium, right: Vlaams Belang) are unlikely to be part of the government due to vetoes by other parties.

Flemish government

[edit]

The 2024 regional election saw the decline of Open Vld, Groen, CD&V, and N-VA, with an increase of votes for Vooruit, PVDA and VB. The incumbent government lost its majority, with only 56 out of 124 seats. Alongside the decisions of Open Vld and Groen to remain in opposition,[22][23] this means the only possible majority government formation without breaking the cordon sanitaire with VB is a tripartite coalition featuring N-VA, Vooruit, and CD&V, which would have a majority at 65 out of 124 seats.[24]

On 14 June, following talks with Sammy Mahdi of CD&V and Melissa Depraetere of Vooruit, Bart De Wever announced that he would draft a preliminary memorandum before negotiations began between the three parties.[25]

On 19 June, Matthias Diependaele of N-VA was called upon to form government on the regional level, with Vooruit and CD&V announcing they are ready to begin negotiations.[26] He will be assisted in the formation proceedings by Zuhal Demir, Ben Weyts, and Annick De Ridder. Several months later, on 28 September 2024, the three parties announced to have come to an agreement to form a new Flemish Government: the Diependaele Government.[27]

Walloon government

[edit]

The regional election saw a victory for the right-leaning bloc of MR and Les Engagés, to the detriment of the PS, Ecolo, and PTB. While the incumbent government's so-called "rainbow coalition" is still mathematically possible, with its majority being held at 50 out of 75 seats, it has been deemed impossible due to PS's decision to remain in opposition.[28] On 11 June, two days after the election, Maxime Prévot and Georges-Louis Bouchez announced their intent to launch negotiations to form a two-party majority government of MR and LE, with 43 out of 75 seats.[29]

On 18 June, consultations began with different organisations, beginning with employers' organisations including VOKA, representing Flemish employers, followed by talks with the unions.[30]

On 11 July, MR and LE announced that they had agreed to form a new government and presented the outlines of this new agreement, which involved lowering taxes, removing the budget deficit by 2034, reducing the number of ministers and eventually dissolving the provinces, tackling unemployment, creating more places in child care and prohibiting smart phones in schools for children up to 12 years old. The names of the ministers were not yet decided and will follow in the coming days.[31]

Brussels-Capital Region government

[edit]

On the Francophone side, the election saw the rise of MR, PTB, and (more modestly) of LE (formerly CdH). Ecolo and Défi lost about half their seats while PS managed to hold on despite a slight decline.

On the Dutch-speaking side, N-VA, Open Vld, and Vooruit each lost a seat while Groen remained stable and VB gained one. The real upheaval was on the side of Team Fouad Ahidar, a new party launched by Fouad Ahidar, a former Brussels MP for Vooruit, which has been characterised by the importance it gives to the "defence of the Muslim community" and religious values.[32] The party obtained 3 seats and became the second-largest Dutch-speaking political party in Brussels.

The incumbent government is not renewable, having lost its overall majority at only 37 out of 89 seats, as well as both of its language-specific majorities, with only 29 out of the 72 Francophone seats (compared to its previous 42) and only 8 out of 17 Dutch-speaking seats (compared to its previous 11). Open Vld and Ecolo have also announced their intentions to remain in opposition.[33][34] Although Paul Magnette, federal leader of PS, announced his intentions for the party to stay in opposition at all levels, Ahmed Laaouej, head of the party list at the regional level, declared that the regional branch of the party is ready to be part of a regional majority government.[35] On 11 June, MR and LE declared that they were joining forces to carry out negotiations in Brussels.[36]

The establishment of a government poses several issues. Firstly, with MR and Groen are essential to their respective linguistic colleges, however, MR's desire to get rid of the "Good Move" plan put in place by Groen in the previous government arouses tensions between Georges-Louis Bouchez and Elke Van den Brandt, even before the start of negotiations.[37] Therefore, Team Fouad Ahidar proves to be necessary to form a three-way Dutch-speaking majority coalition (in the case of a fourth party joining the coalition, one would have to decline a ministerial post), however, Ahidar's political line is controversial, with Guy Vanhengel of Open Vld accusing the party of being "focused on sharia".[38]

German-speaking Community government

[edit]

The election saw a great victory for the Christian-democratic and liberal ProDG which gained 2 seats, and a gain of a single seat was also seen by the liberal Vivant. All other political parties saw a loss of a single seat except for the conservative-liberal Perspectives. Freedom. Progress. (PFF), which remained stable at 3 seats. The incumbent government was potentially renewable, as it retained its majority with 14 out of 25 seats. However, on 13 June, just 4 days after the election, it was announced that ProDG, the Christian Social Party (CSP) and PFF had finalised a coalition agreement and that Oliver Paasch would be Minister-President of the German-speaking Community for a third consecutive term, with a majority of 16 out of the 25 seats in the Parliament. This is a historic change in government, putting the Socialist Party (SP) into opposition for the first time since 1990, with the Christian democrats returning to government for the first time in 25 years.[39]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Belgium's PM De Croo resigns after election defeat – DW – 06/10/2024". dw.com. Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  2. ^ "Wahlsieger ProDG wagt Neuanfang mit CSP und PFF". Belgischer Rundfunk (in German). 13 June 2024. Retrieved 13 June 2024.
  3. ^ Walker, Lauren (10 June 2024). "Long road ahead or quick decisions: What possible coalitions can be formed?".
  4. ^ ""Federal coalition puzzle can be solved quickly, but N-VA will have to make choices"". 11 June 2024.
  5. ^ "Direct – Élections : Bart De Wever désigné informateur, il rendra son premier rapport le 19 juin" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  6. ^ "Direct – Formation des gouvernements : la mission de l'informateur Bart De Wever prolongée d'une semaine, Mathias Diependaele désigné formateur flamand" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  7. ^ Hermans, Jacques (2024-06-12). "Elections 2024 : en Flandre, la lente mise en route de la coalition Rocket". La Libre.be (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  8. ^ info, R. T. L. (2024-06-15). ""Nous serons débarrassés de lui et il ne devra pas apprendre le néerlandais": Georges-Louis Bouchez pas le bienvenu au fédéral pour la présidente de Vooruit" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-16.
  9. ^ BELGA (2024-06-21). "Pour l'informateur Bart De Wever, une seule formule de coalition est possible à court terme pour le gouvernement fédéral" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-21.
  10. ^ "Formation du fédéral : le roi Philippe nomme Bart De Wever (N-VA) préformateur" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-26.
  11. ^ "Gouvernement fédéral : pourquoi l'informateur De Wever devient-il préformateur et pas formateur ?" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-26.
  12. ^ "Belgian government talks begin with Flemish nationalist Bart De Wever at the helm". 2024-07-10. Retrieved 2024-07-10.
  13. ^ Paelinck, Gianni; Vander Beken, Heleen; Vanhelden, Valerie (2024-08-18). "Formateur De Wever apart in gesprek met MR over 'supernota', onderhandelingen voor federale regering gaan nacht in". VRT NWS (in Dutch).
  14. ^ Kelepouris, Stavros; Van Horenbeek, Jeroen (2024-08-22). "Wat nu Arizona is vastgelopen? Met Open Vld als depanneur hangt plots elk voorstel af van de goodwill van Jean-Marie Dedecker". De Morgen (in Dutch).
  15. ^ "Belgian king appoints centrist Christian democrat as coalition mediator". Reuters. 2024-08-23.
  16. ^ "Liveblog - Koning stelt Bart De Wever (N-VA) opnieuw aan als formateur". VRT NWS. 1 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
  17. ^ LIVE FORMATIE. Kinderbijslag opnieuw geïndexeerd, maar dienstencheques duurder: dit weten we al over plannen nieuwe Vlaamse regering, Het Laatste Nieuws, 23 September 2024.
  18. ^ Onderhandelaars federale formatie steken vandaag voor het eerst sinds lokale verkiezingen de koppen bijeen, Het Laatste Nieuws, 16 October 2024.
  19. ^ LIVE. Koning verlengt opdracht van formateur Bart De Wever (N-VA) en vraagt te landen “binnen redelijke termijn”, Het Nieuwsblad, 16 October 2024.
  20. ^ Vooruit trekt streep door huidige nota van De Wever (N-VA): “Het zit al maanden vast. Daarom vragen we een nieuw voorstel”, Het Laatste Nieuws, 25 October 2024.
  21. ^ Formateur De Wever “beraadt zich over volgende stappen” nadat Arizona-onderhandelaars uiteengaan zonder vooruitgang Formateur De Wever “beraadt zich over volgende stappen” nadat Arizona-onderhandelaars uiteengaan zonder vooruitgang, Het Nieuwsblad, 31 October 2024.
  22. ^ "L'Open VLD ne montera pas au gouvernement" (in French). 2024-06-09. Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  23. ^ "Elections 2024 : Groen choisit l'opposition flamande et fédérale" (in French). 2024-06-12. Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  24. ^ Hermans, Jacques (2024-06-12). "Elections 2024 : en Flandre, la lente mise en route de la coalition Rocket" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  25. ^ Belga, Belga (2024-06-14). "Bientôt un gouvernement flamand ? Bart De Wever prépare une "note" après avoir rencontré Melissa Depraetere et Sammy Mahdi" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-14.
  26. ^ Flandre, Flandreinfo be-L'Actu de (2024-06-19). "Matthias Diependaele appelé à former le gouvernement flamand : N-VA, Vooruit et CD&V entament les négociations" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  27. ^ "Duurdere dienstencheques en geen smartphones in de lagere school: dit weten we al over plannen van nieuwe Vlaamse regering" [More expensive service vouchers and ban on smartphones in primary school: this we already know about new Flemish government's plans] (in Dutch). 2024-09-28. Retrieved 2024-09-28.
  28. ^ "Elections 2024 : le PS fait le choix de l'opposition à tous les niveaux de pouvoir, 'une conséquence logique'" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  29. ^ "Élections : 'union sacrée' entre le MR et les Engagés qui entament des négociations en Wallonie et en Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  30. ^ "Georges-Louis Bouchez et Maxime Prévot entament leurs consultations ce lundi" (in French). 2024-06-17. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  31. ^ "Baisse des impôts de 1,5 milliard, moins de ministres, suppression des provinces : les accords de gouvernement détaillés" (in French). 2024-07-11. Retrieved 2024-07-11.
  32. ^ "À Bruxelles, la surprise Fouad Ahidar : un programme 'axé sur les aspects religieux', mais 'là pour tous les Bruxellois'" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  33. ^ "L'Open VLD ne montera pas au gouvernement" (in French). 2024-06-09. Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  34. ^ "Zakia Khattabi: "Ecolo sera dans l'opposition à Bruxelles"". 2024-06-12. Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  35. ^ "Elections 2024 : Ahmed Laaouej estime qu'il « faudra compter avec les socialistes » à Bruxelles (vidéo)" (in French). 2024-06-10. Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  36. ^ "Élections : 'union sacrée' entre le MR et les Engagés qui entament des négociations en Wallonie et en Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  37. ^ Belga, Belga (2024-06-12). "Formation Bruxelles - G-L. Bouchez à Van den Brandt: il y a plusieurs moyens d'enterrer Good Move" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  38. ^ Rigot, Marie (2024-06-12). "Fouad Ahidar accusé d'avoir un programme "axé sur la charia": "C'est scandaleux"" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-12.
  39. ^ "Élections 2024 : accord en Communauté germanophone, la nouvelle majorité sera composée de ProDG, CSP (sociaux-chrétiens) et PFF (libéraux)" (in French). Retrieved 2024-06-13.
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