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Next Northern Ireland Assembly election

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Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
← 2022 No later than 6 May 2027
All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
 
First Minister Humza Yousaf meets with First Minister of Northern Ireland designate Michelle O'Neill, 2023 (cropped).jpg
Official portrait of Gavin Robinson MP crop 2.jpg
Naomi_Long_MLA.jpg
Leader Michelle O'Neill[n 1] Gavin Robinson Naomi Long
Party Sinn Féin DUP Alliance
Leader since 23 January 2017[n 2] 29 March 2024 26 October 2016
Leader's seat Mid Ulster MP (not an MLA)[n 3] Belfast East
Last election 27 seats, 29.0% 25 seats, 21.3% 17 seats, 13.5%
 
Mike Nesbitt 2024.jpg
Official portrait of Claire Hanna MP crop 2.jpg
Official portrait of Jim Allister MP crop 2.jpg
Leader Mike Nesbitt Claire Hanna Jim Allister
Party UUP SDLP TUV
Leader since 30 August 2024 5 October 2024 7 December 2007
Leader's seat Strangford MP (not an MLA)[n 5] MP (not an MLA)[n 4]
Last election 9 seats, 11.2% 8 seats, 9.1% 1 seat, 7.6%
 
Johannes Hahn and Irish politicians, May 2022 (cropped).jpg
Leader Richard Boyd Barrett
Party People Before Profit
Leader since 10 October 2024
Leader's seat N/A[n 6]
Last election 1 seat, 1.1%
Incumbent First Minister and
deputy First Minister

Michelle O'Neill (SF) and
Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP)


A Northern Ireland Assembly election will be held to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly on or before 6 May 2027.

After the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May 2022, the DUP (the largest unionist party in the legislature) declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline.[2] No Executive was formed by this deadline,[3] but the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament.[4][5] A deadline of 18 January 2024 was then proposed.[6][7] On 31 January 2024 the DUP and UK Government announced a deal had been struck to revive the Executive,[8] and on 3 February 2024 the Assembly swore in Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O'Neill and DUP deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.[9]

This election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly: Sinn Féin led by Michelle O'Neill, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Gavin Robinson,[10] Alliance led by Naomi Long, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) led by Mike Nesbitt, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) led by Claire Hanna, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) led by Jim Allister, and People Before Profit (PBP) led by Richard Boyd Barrett.

Background

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Northern Ireland Executive Formation

Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,[11] which is 6 May 2027. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved earlier.

After the 2022 Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government's Northern Ireland Secretary has to call a new election early or come up with some other solution.[12] No government was formed by the deadline.[13] Rather than call a new election, Heaton-Harris introduced legislation to extend the deadline,[14] the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022.[15][16][17] The new deadline also passed with no resolution.[14][18][19] Heaton-Harris produced a further extension through legislation via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023.[20][21]

On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced the Windsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.[22] It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive.[23] However, the DUP boycott continued.[24] Heaton-Harris again brought primary legislation to further extend the deadline to 8 February 2024, via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Act 2024.[25][26][27]

On 30 January, the DUP announced that they would accept a deal conditional on legislation being passed by the UK government that saw them agreeing to form an executive with Sinn Fein.[28] A new executive was formed on 3 February 2024.

Opinion polling

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		SF
N 		DUP U APNI O UUP U SDLP N TUV U Green O Aontú N PBP O Other Lead
1–4 Nov 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,209 29% 19% 13% 10% 10% 11% 2% 1% 2% 3% 10%
10 October 2024 Richard Boyd Barrett becomes the leader of People Before Profit (PBP)
5 October 2024 Claire Hanna becomes the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
30 August 2024 Mike Nesbitt becomes the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)
29 August 2024 Colum Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
19 August 2024 Doug Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)
16–19 August 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,443 30% 18% 15% 12% 8% 9% 2% 1% 1% 4% 12%
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 27.0% 22.1% 15.0% 12.2% 11.1% 6.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1%
3.3%
Independent on 3.1%
 7.6%
10 May-13 May 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,021 29% 21% 15% 11% 8% 8% 1% 2% 1% 4% 8%
29 Mar 2024 Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
9–12 February 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,207 31% 24% 14% 10% 7% 6% 1% 2% 1% 4% 7%
3 Feb 2024 Establishment of the new executive
27–30 Oct 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,046 31% 28% 16% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3%
14 January – 7 September 2023 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey ARK 1,200 19% 15% 22% 10% 7% – 4% – –
22%
None of these on 10%
I don't know on 8%
Other party on 3%
Other answer on 1%
 3%
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 31% 26% 15% 10% 6% 5% 2% 2% 1% 2% 5%
18 May 2023 2023 local elections – 30.9% 23.3% 13.3% 10.9% 8.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.0%
5.4%
NI Conservatives on 0.1%
 7.6%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,557 29% 25% 13% 11% 7% 7% 2% 2% 1% 3% 4%
3–14 Mar 2023 Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool/The Irish News N/A 30.6% 23.9% 15.4% 11.3% 6.7% 4.8% 3.2% 0.2% 2.2%
1.7%
NI Conservatives on 1.3%
 6.7%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,499 31% 25% 15% 10% 7% 7% 1% 2% 1% 1% 6%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 32% 27% 15% 9% 7% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 5%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 30% 24% 16% 11% 7% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 6%
28 Jun – 10 Jul 2022 Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool/The Irish News 1,000 30.9% 20.1% 15.3% 9.6% 10.0% 4.7% 2.8% 1.6% 2.2% 2.8% 10.8%
5 May 2022 2022 Assembly election – 29.0% 21.3% 13.5% 11.2% 9.1% 7.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1%
3.8%
NI Conservatives on 0.03%
 7.7%

Note: Next to the party initials at the top of the table there are the letters "N", "O", and "U". These show how the parties have chosen to designate themselves, Unionist (U), Nationalist (N) or other (O), in the Assembly previously (or, in the case of Aontú, how they are expected to designate if they win a seat). This is a function of the Assembly's consociational design.

Leadership approval ratings

[edit]

Michelle O'Neill

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018, First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
9–12 February 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,207 54% 29% 17% +25%
3 February 2024 O'Neill becomes First Minister of Northern Ireland
11–14 August 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 43% 37% 20% +6%
21–24 April 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 41% 37% 22% +4%
20–23 January 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 41% 40% 19% +4%
4–7 November 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 46% 37% 17% +9%
12–15 August 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 40% 42% 18% –2%

Jeffrey Donaldson

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) until 29 March 2024.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
29 March 2024 Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
9–12 February 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,207 36% 48% 16% –12%
11–14 August 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 24% 66% 10% –42%
21–24 April 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 27% 65% 8% –38%
20–23 January 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 25% 63% 12% –38%
4–7 November 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 29% 65% 6% –36%
12–15 August 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 27% 64% 9% –37%

Naomi Long

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016 and Minister of Justice since 3 February 2024 and from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
9–12 February 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,207 38% 36% 26% +2%
3 February 2024 Long becomes Minister of Justice
11–14 August 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 38% 39% 23% –1%
21–24 April 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 40% 38% 22% +2%
20–23 January 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 37% 38% 25% –1%
4–7 November 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 45% 37% 18% +8%
27 October 2022 Long is removed as Minister of Justice due to the collapse of the power-sharing Northern Ireland Executive
12–15 August 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 46% 37% 17% +9%

Doug Beattie

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
19 August 2024 Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)
9–12 February 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,207 35% 35% 30% 0%
11–14 August 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 34% 38% 28% –4%
21–24 April 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 38% 33% 29% +5%
20–23 January 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 28% 42% 30% –14%
4–7 November 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 37% 32% 31% +5%
12–15 August 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 34% 34% 32% 0%

Colum Eastwood

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
29 August 2024 Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
9–12 February 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,207 31% 41% 28% –10%
11–14 August 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 26% 43% 31% –17%
21–24 April 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 32% 40% 28% –8%
20–23 January 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 33% 38% 29% –5%
4–7 November 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 31% 39% 30% –8%
12–15 August 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 34% 39% 27% –5%

Jim Allister

[edit]

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Good/Great Bad/Awful Don't know Net approval
4 July 2024 Allister is elected as Member of Parliament (MP) for North Antrim
9–12 February 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,207 20% 70% 10% –50%
11–14 August 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 23% 63% 14% –40%
21–24 April 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 27% 61% 12% –34%
20–23 January 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 27% 57% 16% –30%
4–7 November 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 27% 59% 14% –32%
12–15 August 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 31% 54% 15% –23%

Leadership performance ratings

[edit]

The following poll asked respondents to rate the performance of political leaders in the last few months, scoring from 0% to 100% for each leader.

NI political leaders

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Gavin Robinson
DUP leader 		Michelle O'Neill
Sinn Féin VP
- NI First Minister 		Naomi Long
Alliance leader 		Colum Eastwood
SDLP leader 		Doug Beattie
UUP leader 		Jim Allister
TUV leader 		Emma Little-Pengelly
(DUP)
NI deputy First Minister 		NI Executive Lead
29 August 2024 Colum Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
16 August 2024 Doug Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)
4 July 2024 Jim Allister is elected as Member of Parliament (MP) for North Antrim
29 May 2024 Gavin Robinson is elected as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
10–13 May 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,316 46% 53% 46% 39% 44% 29% 52% 39% 1%
29 March 2024 Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
3 February 2024 Naomi Long becomes Minister of Justice
Emma Little-Pengelly becomes deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland
Michelle O'Neill becomes First Minister of Northern Ireland
Establishment of the new Executive
27 October 2022 Naomi Long is removed as Minister of Justice due to the collapse of the power-sharing Northern Ireland Executive

UK and Ireland political leaders

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Simon Harris
Taoiseach Ireland 		Mary Lou McDonald
Sinn Féin President 		Chris Heaton-Harris
NI Secretary of State 		Rishi Sunak
UK Prime Minister 		Lead
5 July 2024 Hilary Benn becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
10–13 May 2024 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,316 36% 39% 20% 16% 3%
9 April 2024 Simon Harris becomes Taoiseach
17 December 2022 Leo Varadkar becomes Taoiseach
25 October 2022 Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
6 September 2022 Chris Heaton-Harris becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
7 July 2022 Shailesh Vara becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland

See also

[edit]

Footnotes

[edit]
  1. ^ Sinn Féin's president is Mary Lou McDonald, who is a TD for Dublin Central in Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas (legislature of the Republic of Ireland). O'Neill is the party's vice president and leads the party in Northern Ireland.[1]
  2. ^ As "Party leader in the North"
  3. ^ Robinson sits in the House of Commons as the MP for Belfast East rather than in the Assembly.
  4. ^ Allister sits in the House of Commons as the MP for North Antrim rather than in the Assembly. Timothy Gaston is the sole TUV MLA in the Assembly
  5. ^ Hanna sits in the House of Commons as the MP for Belfast South and Mid Down rather than in the Assembly. Matthew O'Toole is leader of the SDLP in the Assembly.
  6. ^ Gerry Carroll is the sole People Before Profit MLA in the Assembly

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Black, Rebecca (12 July 2023). "O'Neill urges people burning effigies of politicians to 'catch themselves on'". The Independent. Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  2. ^ Pogatchnik, Shawn (28 September 2022). "UK warns of snap Northern Ireland election if DUP won't share power". Politico. Retrieved 29 September 2022.
  3. ^ "NI election looms as Stormont deadline passes". BBC News. 27 October 2022. Retrieved 28 October 2022.
  4. ^ McClafferty, Enda; McCormack, Jayne (2 November 2022). "NI election date to be confirmed soon – Steve Baker". BBC News. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  5. ^ "Stormont election: Further delay suggested as NI Protocol talks continue". BBC News. 19 January 2023. Retrieved 22 January 2023.
  6. ^ O'Carroll, Lisa (9 February 2023). "Northern Ireland assembly election to be delayed again". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
  7. ^ Pogatchnik, Shawn (9 February 2023). "UK concedes reality of Northern Ireland deadlock, shifts election 'deadline' to 2024". POLITICO. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
  8. ^ Elizabeth Piper and Sarah Young (1 February 2024). "UK unveils DUP deal to restore Northern Ireland government". Reuters.
  9. ^ Amanda Ferguson and Natalie Thomas (4 February 2024). "Northern Ireland appoints Irish nationalist as First Minister in historic shift". Reuters.
  10. ^ Carroll, Rory (29 March 2024). "Sir Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as Democratic Unionist party leader". The Guardian. Retrieved 29 March 2024.
  11. ^ "Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014". Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  12. ^ Sproule, Luke (12 May 2022). "NI election results 2022: What does Sinn Féin's vote success mean?". BBC News. Retrieved 14 May 2022.
  13. ^ Simpson, Mark; Andrews, Chris (27 October 2022). "DUP blocks NI government as election call looms". BBC News. Retrieved 27 October 2022.
  14. ^ a b "Secretary of State for Northern Ireland – Statement on Executive Formation". UK Government. 9 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
  15. ^ https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9939/CBP-9939.pdf [bare URL PDF]
  16. ^ https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/48/enacted [bare URL]
  17. ^ McCormack, Jayne (5 December 2022). "Stormont: MLA pay cut bill passed in House of Lords" – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  18. ^ McCormack, Jayne; Fox, Matt (9 November 2022). "Stormont stalemate: Heaton-Harris pushes back NI election deadline". BBC News. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  19. ^ Hughes, Brendan (18 January 2023). "Latest Stormont deadline looms but little sign of snap election". BelfastLive.
  20. ^ "Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) (changed from Northern Ireland (Executive Formation)) Bill – Parliamentary Bills – UK Parliament".
  21. ^ "Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2022–23 – House of Commons Library".
  22. ^ "The Windsor Framework". Institute for Government. 27 March 2023.
  23. ^ Press Association (27 February 2023). "Windsor Framework: Sinn Fein and SDLP call for restoration of Assembly following NI Protocol deal". Belfast News Letter.
  24. ^ "DUP: No dissent within the party over Stormont boycott, says leader". BBC News. 5 October 2023.
  25. ^ "Stormont stalemate: Deadline to restore Northern Ireland Executive to expire". BBC News. 18 January 2024.
  26. ^ https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9939/ [bare URL]
  27. ^ https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3672 [bare URL]
  28. ^ "Northern Ireland: New deal means goods will flow freely throughout UK – Jeffrey Donaldson". 30 January 2024.
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